How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I read a quick analysis of Russia's ability to avoid defaulting on its sovereign debt.  Basically it stated that it made the last round of payments by the skin of its teeth and is going to have more and more problems meeting its obligations each passing month.  And that was before the decrease in national revenue was getting factored in.  So anybody want to take bets on if Russia is deemed in default this month or next?

Steve

As the old magic 8 ball used to say "Outlook not so good"

U.S. impedes Russia’s debt payments as new sanctions package emerges (msn.com)

“Beginning today, the U.S. Treasury will not permit any dollar debt payments to be made from Russian government accounts at U.S. financial institutions,” a Treasury Department spokeswoman said in a news release. “Russia must choose between draining remaining valuable dollar reserves or new revenue coming in, or default. … This will further deplete the resources Putin is using to continue his war against Ukraine and will cause more uncertainty and challenges for their financial system.”

Edited April 5, 2022 by sburke

[Lethaface]

32 minutes ago, Degsy said:

Russian Embassy in Dublin about to run out of heating fuel.

The Embassy's heating runs on diesel but no-one is willing to sell to them. The Russian Ambassador, Yuri Filatov, is asking the Irish Foreign Ministry to look into this into this "clearly discriminatory case". I wonder how much diesel the average diplomatic bag holds because I don't see them getting it any other way.

Unfortunately, I guess they can use jerrycans to fetch it at the pump?

[kraze]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

 What am I missing that has you so put out by my comment?

The sole fact that russians never stopped considering us their territory, not for a single day.

And the sole fact that a mighty #1 woohoo russian army got owned so hard by a bunch of "lenin-invented" "separatists" - that it now needs low morale untrained conscripts just thrown into the meat grinder without any modern weapons (of which they quickly run out) - will show how weak putin is.

Failing to defeat a "local rebellion" in "russian" land with best army ever as is IS putin's loss of face.

Edited April 5, 2022 by kraze

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Unfortunately, I guess they can use jerrycans to fetch it at the pump?

Let's hope Dublin has a considerable Ukrainian community....Ambush!

Edited April 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I'm a teacher in Germany and already have a few Ukrainian refugees in my classrooms. Sadly I mostly teach English and they don't learn that there, so basically they are at the utterly wrong level for my classes. So I mostly give them German as foreign language material or Ukrainian textbooks on an Ipad for self learning, but all of this is not really a satisfactory solution.

I have some brief experience teaching in the U.S. in a school where there were ~20 languages spoken. Sometimes you just have to do the best you can, reading literally anything is good, anything about the subject is better. At least this influx is of one language, so it may be possible for the schools to do something more organized by next year. Presumably a lot of Ukrainian teachers have left with their own children. I realize it cost money...

[kraze]

38 minutes ago, Degsy said:

Russian Embassy in Dublin about to run out of heating fuel.

The Embassy's heating runs on diesel but no-one is willing to sell to them. The Russian Ambassador, Yuri Filatov, is asking the Irish Foreign Ministry to look into this into this "clearly discriminatory case". I wonder how much diesel the average diplomatic bag holds because I don't see them getting it any other way.

They should start using nearby wood to heat their building then. 40 mln of russians are doing it in a gas/oil rich Russia after all.

[DesertFox]

Ugh!

 

 

[sross112]

45 minutes ago, Degsy said:

Russian Embassy in Dublin about to run out of heating fuel.

The Embassy's heating runs on diesel but no-one is willing to sell to them. The Russian Ambassador, Yuri Filatov, is asking the Irish Foreign Ministry to look into this into this "clearly discriminatory case". I wonder how much diesel the average diplomatic bag holds because I don't see them getting it any other way.

Too bad someone hasn't come forward to fill their request. Someone should but pump it full of water or gas instead. Does Ukraine have a CIA type organization to arrange such things?

[danfrodo]

So if the russians want to push forward with pincer movements and surround the Donbas forces, the will come from north and south.  My understanding is that the terrain is relatively open steppe.  Is that so?

And how's the mud right now?  If the Russians can't deploy on the steppes then they really can't capitalize on have big armored formations.  I know that they might not have the power to actually make a big armored thrust, but I can't be sure of that. 

Genius Putin now looking to try to do an offensive in mud season.  Or maybe he'll go on defensive thinking he'll make a big push in a month once he's got more forces & drier ground?

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of how the sanctions hit Russia and Belarus.  Companies that are based there, but make most of their money globally, have no choice but to relocate their operations or go out of business.  Since the people running these companies like money, they will relocate   This is likely to remain permanent even if sanctions are lifted down the road unless there is a major political change within Russia (which would likely be needed for sanctions to be lifted):

https://motolko.help/en-news/wargaming-leaves-belarus-and-russia/

Steve

[c3k]

21 minutes ago, kraze said:

The sole fact that russians never stopped considering us their territory, not for a single day.

And the sole fact that a mighty #1 woohoo russian army got owned so hard by a bunch of "lenin-invented" "separatists" - that it now needs low morale untrained conscripts just thrown into the meat grinder without any modern weapons (of which they quickly run out) - will show how weak putin is.

Failing to defeat a "local rebellion" in "russian" land with best army ever as is IS putin's loss of face.

Exactly. That was my point...that Putin defines things in terms that no one else recognizes.

[womble]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Ugh!

 

 

Well, to be mundane for a second, some tractor obviously happened by and dragged the hull off for scrap and left the turret, because their friend the backhoe was off salvaging some other wreck... but that aside:

Holy heck! How high did that turret have to be blown to bury itself that deep in tarmac?!! 

[billbindc]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I read a quick analysis of Russia's ability to avoid defaulting on its sovereign debt.  Basically it stated that it made the last round of payments by the skin of its teeth and is going to have more and more problems meeting its obligations each passing month.  And that was before the decrease in national revenue was getting factored in.  So anybody want to take bets on if Russia is deemed in default this month or next?

Steve

An economist friend says it is inevitable at some point and the Bucha evidence simply gave the US government another opportunity to bring the date forward:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-cuts-off-russian-reserves-014958986.html

So...will it happen this week? Maybe not but give it another month or so.

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Well, to be mundane for a second, some tractor obviously happened by and dragged the hull off for scrap and left the turret, because their friend the backhoe was off salvaging some other wreck... but that aside:

Holy heck! How high did that turret have to be blown to bury itself that deep in tarmac?!! 

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.

[akd]

More reporting from Trostianets:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/05/barbarians-russian-troops-leave-grisly-mark-on-ukraine-town-of-trostianets

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.

Maybe it's a VDV tank, and they haven't quite got "airdropped" worked out yet...

[akd]

26 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Ugh!

 

 

This would seem to be a new event in the competition: the Pavement High Dive! 8/10. Very clean entry!

Edited April 5, 2022 by akd

[akd]

Mariupol. Drone video is here (tank’s location):

47.10974° N, 37.63729° E

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

On the prowl...

 

 

[Hapless]

Good one of a Ukrainian ATGM team in action:

Handful of guys, ATGM, pre-prepared ambush site.

[akd]

WP reached Chernihiv:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/05/chernihiv-scene-death-destruction/

[akd]

10 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Good one of a Ukrainian ATGM team in action:

Handful of guys, ATGM, pre-prepared ambush site.

Heh, they let a bunch of trucks and APCs pass because they are too “cheap” for the Stugna-P, then kill the TOS-1A.

[dan/california]

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511417219674161158.html

 

Trent making a great deal of sense about the railway lines in the Donbas being very important to the next phase of the war.

[The Steppenwulf]

3 hours ago, c3k said:

Why is he not doing this already? Because up until the withdrawal from Kyiv, he's been living in fantasy-land. Now, perhaps, he sees how bad it is going. 

 

Nobody is disputing that Putin thought he'd be flying the RF flag over Kyiv by now.

The problem that has become apparent is that he has manpower problem, this is not the same as 'it's going badly', it's a developed explanation of WHY it's going badly, and key to what the solution is.  

Putin is not asleep to the manpower shortage problem because of his actions to recruit a rag tag band which make very little difference anyhow, it solves nothing in the current conflict - unless we get a frozen conflict (my single caveat).

I think his inaction on the manpower problem is actually because there's not much he can actually do about it without dealing with matters of Russian law which would cause him all kinds of internal issues and political implications, which may in fact, lead to a cliff edge moment for his 'presidency'.  If you don't agree that this is the case then we'll have to put it down to a difference in perspective.

My point, which you clearly don't agree with, is that there is a better way for Putin to avoid this (and a potential existential threat to himself), but that particular path will unfortunately raise the stakes to an altogether different level. 

What we do agree on though about his next move is that neither of us seeing him back down.    
 

Edited April 5, 2022 by The Steppenwulf