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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Oil depot destroyed by Russian army near Dnipro, say local authorities
An oil depot near Dnipro, in eastern Ukraine, was bombed and destroyed by the Russian army overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, without causing any casualties, local authorities announced on Wednesday.

“It was a difficult night. The enemy attacked from the air and hit an oil depot and a factory. The depot is destroyed and a powerful fire ravages the plant,” Dnipropetrovsk region governor Valentin Reznichenko said on Telegram. "Fortunately, there were no injuries," he said, "the fire was extinguished by the firefighters", who "fought for more than eight hours".

According to Mikola Loukachouk, head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council, the bombardment by the Russian army took place "late Tuesday evening" in Novomoskovsk, 25 kilometers northeast of Dnipro. “The enemy is cynically targeting civilian targets,” lamented Mr. Lukashuk, according to whom, “there were no Ukrainian soldiers” there.

 

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According to Kursk governor, border checkpoint Sudzha was shelled with mortar, Russian border guards had to return fire

 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Well, with the glaring exception of the Bolsheviks. Of course, to see an uprising like that again would mean Putin would have to **** things up as badly as Nicholas did. And I definitely wouldn't hold my breath for that.

Nicholas was dethroned by the February coup led by "elites", which itself was deposed by the military coup of commies.

Actual russians played little role in the events, they didn't care who will give them something to eat in the end - they just supported da tuffest ork boi in da clan with da most teef and da biggest WAAAGH

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Note the Russian reinforcement in the Izium area

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For me, the hasty deployment of Russian 'elite' units while they are not reorganized is a clear demonstration of the current state of Russian forces. The situation is so critical (no reserve available in manpower and equipment, catastrophic economic situation), that they cannot afford to wait and throw everything into the fray. If even their best units don't have anything to refit and rest (including with obsolete gear), that's saying it all...

Remembering the hasty deployment of german divisions while not ready in the Mortain Counteroffensive or Balaton (Frühlingserwachen). The dog can still bite very violently, but in the long run it will leave its teeth there

Edited by Taranis
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2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It's important to note that most of these people aren't Russian citizens, but Russlanddeutsche, meaning ethnic Germans from the Soviet Union with various backgrounds, who emigrated mostly during the 80s and early 90s and were granted German citizenship by virtue of their status. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_Germans

And are now pro- Putin? What is it with Western society that it installs so little loyality in some people?

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8 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Image

Note the Russian reinforcement in the Izium area

Image

For me, the hasty deployment of Russian 'elite' units while they are not reorganized is a clear demonstration of the current state of Russian forces. The situation is so critical (no reserve available in manpower and equipment, catastrophic economic situation), that they cannot afford to wait and throw everything into the fray. If even their best units don't have anything to refit and rest (including with obsolete gear), that's saying it all...

Remembering the hasty deployment of german divisions while not ready in the Mortain Counteroffensive or Balaton (Frühlingserwachen)

Taranis, where can I find the site these maps are posted?

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4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Taranis, where can I find the site these maps are posted?

It is the Jomini of the West profile on twitter :
https://twitter.com/jominiw

Personally, I use "nitter" instead of "twitter", which makes it possible not to need an account, as a forum member previously suggested (thanks to him)
https://nitter.net/JominiW

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More fun in Belgorod region. It seems doubtful to me that Ukraine would try another air strike on Belgorod right now, so maybe this is Russians getting jumpy. Or Russia trying to ramp up the sense of danger for its citizens.

  • This morning, missiles launched from Belgorod, supposedly air defence: https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/10415
  • In neighbouring Kursk region, Russia says its border checkpoint at Sudzha was shelled by a mortar and border guards returned fire: https://t.me/informnapalm/6312
  • Yesterday, explosion in Krasnogvadersky district of Belgorod oblast - district head says it wasn't because of shelling: https://t.me/bbbreaking/121946
  • Also yesterday, explosions reported over Belgorod 
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8 hours ago, Kraft said:

I have not been trained on a tank so I do not know how long that process is, but I can imagine it being more than a month for fresh conscripts.

As for Bundeswehr in the 90s (I don´t think it is much different now) it were 9 months until you were fit for driver, loader or gunner duty. 3 months basic millitary training followed by 6 months special crew training. After that another 3 months for tactical training at platoon / company level, so you can assume that after 9 months a freshly conscripted unit was capable to do basic tasks with their tanks and after 12 months was considered fully combat ready. You certainly can speed up some elements, but I´d say from conscript to crew you need at least 6-8 months if your tank crew and unit should have a certain chance of survival on the battlefield.

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The commander of the Panzerlehrbrigade 9 and and chief of the Situationroom Ukraine in the MoD Germany on the situation of the war including tank warfare and the future of tanks. In german language but english subtitles with automatic translation are available.

 

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7 hours ago, sross112 said:

Technical question for the smart ATGM people here. From earlier posts a couple hundred pages ago there was talk of being able to remote fire the Javelin. Looking around online I can't find a couple things I'm curious about:

I think we might have to chalk this up to me having false memory syndrome. I could have sworn I'd seen a video of a UK javelin being set up on a tripod on a roof in Afghanistan and fired remotely, but I can't find anything now to suggest that this is true. I've been walking around for 10 years with the apparently incorrect belief that UK Javelins had some kind of remote launch capability.

My best guess is I took the UK change of having a tripod, read about the detachable CLU (which all variants have), jumped to the wrong conclusion and conflated it with a mis-remembered video.

So in short, I think I was talking utter rubbish :)

 

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50 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

The commander of the Panzerlehrbrigade 9 and and chief of the Situationroom Ukraine in the MoD Germany on the situation of the war including tank warfare and the future of tanks. In german language but english subtitles with automatic translation are available.

 

Einsatzwert (operational value). Gefecht der verbundenen Verbände (combined armes). And the age of the tank is far from over. Very interesting, Sarjen. Thank you. 

This German commander expects another grinding war in the East of the Ukraine, in which numbers will be decisive. Problem is the attacker can chose his Schwerpunkt and achieve local superiority. Nothing new there, but worrying nevertheless. Will Russia be able to regroup on time (preferably before the real mud is coming) and achieve local superiority?

Edited by Aragorn2002
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We've talked a lot about how Putin "needs" to end this on some kind of symbolic victory, but if Putin has such total control of the media and minds in Russia, could he just end the war now, declare victory against all facts, and go home? Basically just ignore reality and hope most Russians will quickly forget everything?

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4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

We've talked a lot about how Putin "needs" to end this on some kind of symbolic victory, but if Putin has such total control of the media and minds in Russia, could he just end the war now, declare victory against all facts, and go home? Basically just ignore reality and hope most Russians will quickly forget everything?

I think we underestimate his determination. He's isn't doing this to look good to his own people, but because he want to restore the Soviet empire, Novo Russia. He won't give up, unless...

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31 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think we underestimate his determination. He's isn't doing this to look good to his own people, but because he want to restore the Soviet empire, Novo Russia. He won't give up, unless...

Yes, but he has withdrawn from Kyiv and now tries to consolidate in the east of Ukraine, so he's not toally out of touch with reality on the ground..

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14 hours ago, Taranis said:

Moscow says it shot down two helicopters that came to Mariupol to evacuate Azov battalion leaders

source : 

Military tactics isn't Kamil's strongest subject, but his latest thread has an interesting take on this I hadn't heard... 

Same thread: Russian commentators starting to realize just how terribly their army is performing....

Not just Shoygu, look at the other senior general's 'tells' as he pauses. He knows it's rubbish. And minister sadsack looks like he stepped out of the 'Death of Stalin' black comedy film (recommended btw).

 

Some old Chinese guy you may have heard of:

II.2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.

II.3. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.

II.4. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.

II.5. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays....

III.3. Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy's forces; the next in order is to attack the enemy's army in the field; and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities....

III.12. There are three ways in which a ruler can bring misfortune upon his army:--

III.13. (1) By commanding the army to advance or to retreat, being ignorant of the fact that it cannot obey. This is called hobbling the army

III14. (2) By attempting to govern an army in the same way as he administers a kingdom, being ignorant of the conditions which obtain in an army. This causes restlessness in the soldier's minds.

III.15. (3) By employing the officers of his army without discrimination, through ignorance of the military principle of adaptation to circumstances. This shakes the confidence of the soldiers.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And are now pro- Putin? What is it with Western society that it installs so little loyality in some people?

A lot of them are, apparently, without ever having lived in Putin's Russia. One problem seems to be media consumption, as a lot these people are watching Russian news channels. They are also one of the big electorates of our right-wing AfD party.

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34 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

He won't give up, unless...

He has the obsession like an autistic person. They smash their environment up because the chair is 1 inch too far from the door. The man is mental but a dangerous one. Like a rabies dog a needle to put him asleep. 

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41 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

A lot of them are, apparently, without ever having lived in Putin's Russia. One problem seems to be media consumption, as a lot these people are watching Russian news channels. They are also one of the big electorates of our right-wing AfD party.

How a right wing party can be pro Putin is beyond me.

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