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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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13 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

They would need to be reworked for a very soft launch, otherwise you might just as well crash the Baba Jaga directly into the target 

A rocket has no recoil (if you let go…). However, the blast from the exhaust may be a problem. Remember the big shield on the Panzerschreck? IIRC the modern solution is to have a two stage start so that the plume develops far away from the shooter. But I don‘t know if any of the rockets you mentioned can do that.

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31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So MAD is justification for such legal frameworks of “they did it first, so we can too”?  MAD is outside of the laws of armed conflict.  In fact MAD is outside warfare itself.  It is an action of species suicide - taking you with me over the cliff.  You are conflating prosecution of conventional warfare with an activity outside of the legal frameworks we have constructed…to avoid freakin MAD.

If Ukraine starts committing the same level and intensity of warcrimes, what do you suppose will happen to support from the West? It is in fact intellectually lazy to simply dismiss the whole “warcrimes thing” as “boys will be boys”.  There is never justification or legal normalization of war criminal behaviour.  To throw the LOAC out the window is to pretty much toss the international rules based order out with it.  At that point what are we fighting for?  If we destroy the rules based order we built, because we are angry or pissy with Russia - we basically erode or destroy why we are supporting Ukraine in the first place.

Trust me I get the impulse and the realities of warfare, but a major difference between a professional military and the RA is adherence to laws of warfare…even when it gets hard. Actually, especially when it gets hard.  Any military that starts to slip, forgiving or looking the other way on unrighteous shoots, is on a slippery slope.  Let it get too far and we won’t be able to tell the difference and that has serious strategic repercussions.

You are misunderstanding my point. I am not encouraging Ukrainians to commit war crimes. I am saying, though, that with the amount of war crimes committed by the Russians there is a lot of catching up to be done on the part of Ukrainians to be on the same level as the Russians are. There is a gradation in this, there must be because all armies will commit war crimes at some point and painting them with the same brush just because of that would be insane, and a way to excuse the real bastards just because of some slip ups by the good guys. 

And the fact that on the Ukrainian side the breaches of LOAC would be reprisals, should count. It is also insane to disregard this IMO. The Dachau MG shooter who took down SS Totenkopf guards and the LSSAH panzergrenadier who started shooting at US prisoners and initiated the Malmedy massacre did not do the same thing. Again, too easy excuse for the real bastards who started playing dirty.

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12 minutes ago, poesel said:

A rocket has no recoil (if you let go…). However, the blast from the exhaust may be a problem. 

Yes, I meant something like that. The Hydras fired from helicopters seem to develop big exhaust plumes immediately and I assumed that blast would destabilise the shooting drone. 

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41 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

You are misunderstanding my point. I am not encouraging Ukrainians to commit war crimes. I am saying, though, that with the amount of war crimes committed by the Russians there is a lot of catching up to be done on the part of Ukrainians to be on the same level as the Russians are. There is a gradation in this, there must be because all armies will commit war crimes at some point and painting them with the same brush just because of that would be insane, and a way to excuse the real bastards just because of some slip ups by the good guys. 

And the fact that on the Ukrainian side the breaches of LOAC would be reprisals, should count. It is also insane to disregard this IMO. The Dachau MG shooter who took down SS Totenkopf guards and the LSSAH panzergrenadier who started shooting at US prisoners and initiated the Malmedy massacre did not do the same thing. Again, too easy excuse for the real bastards who started playing dirty.

I do not dispute the RAs behaviour in this war has been abhorrent.  It is a stain on them as a military that will not wash off on our lifetimes.  

But…illegality in warfare is not a scoreboard or balance sheet.  Any UA alleged warcrime should be investigated and prosecuted by the Government of Ukrainian. If they are smart (and I think they are very smart), these will be transparent and public fair trials within their legal system.  It does not matter that “Russia has done worse”.  Reprisals have no place in determining the righteousness of any action.

As to Russia, a major reason we will be unable to renormalize with that country is the outstanding war criminality on display.  Without full prosecution…and it goes pretty high up the chain, we should not lift sanctions and put out warrants for known RA perpetrators.  Russia’s continual disregard for the law of armed conflict will be why they likely will remain boxed up as a nation and never allowed to rejoin Europe…or at least one would hope.

Edited by The_Capt
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3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

In WW2, the Allies resorted both to indiscriminate bombing of cities and unlimited submarine warfare, in response to what Germans did.

The indiscriminate bombings are a particularly bad example to make your point. They were probably the number one obstacle for us to come to terms with Nazi crimes. Contrary to popular allied believe, the major part of that happened decades after the Nuremberg trials, when the next generation demanded to know what there parents did.

The indiscriminate bombings were something many Germans had experienced themselves and everyone could see the bombed out cities. On the other hand, the Eastern front had been far away and concentration camps easy to ignore if one didn't want to see them. The soldiers themselves didn't talk about what they had seen and done but everyone could see the effects of the bombing campaign.

And to this day they make for great whataboutism when talking about the Holocaust and German warcrimes: "But but but the Allies weren't any better, remember Dresden? And did anyone of them end up in Nuremberg?"

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51 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And to this day they make for great whataboutism when talking about the Holocaust and German warcrimes: "But but but the Allies weren't any better, remember Dresden? And did anyone of them end up in Nuremberg?"

They really couldn't prosecute Kesselring for bombing Rotterdam. In all fairness combined warfare was still not fully developed. Radio communications were unreliable, and signals still depended on flares. Precision bombing was by 1945 still experimental. To take out a factory you needed to flatten all of the neighborhood. Dresden I agree with the point of view partially it was meant as a red flag intended for the Soviets. By 1945 they lived in a different world as we do now, no time for niceties then. 

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Despite setbacks in Kursk, a special russian military milestone has been reached. The preliminery MoD draft for tomorrows report to putin: IMG-20240818-024624-672.jpg

The risk-premium tracks well.

2023: 19.2 days 

2024: 2.9 days

July: 2.4 days

August: 1.3 days

A little silly Interpolation: in 12 months, there would be one case every 30 seconds. With a higher share of conscripts and less hardened criminals in the trenches I expect the pace to increase beyond current trajectory.

Main areas: Avdiivka/Pokrovsk by far

Zaporizhzhia, only half the cases Avdiivka has. Bakhmut, surprisingly low 3rd place for the absolute horror it was but (fpv) drones were not as proliferated I guess.

2/3 AK, 1/3 grenade. One case involving a knife (in the least effective way). One case of self-immolation(why?).

Not controlled for: active observation drone numbers.

Omitted picture evidence, videos only.

Not counting suicide by drone (ie standing still) as it is contaminated with russians doing this to "hide".

---

For comparison there are 3 TOTAL cases of UA known to me.

Edited by Kraft
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🖊Yes, I've come to my senses a bit: I don't have enough time for a full review yet, but I already have some opinions regarding the development of the current situation

In the Kursk operational direction, the plan of the Ukrainian command, I think, has already become quite obvious and clear.
Especially after the attacks on the bridges across the Seim River and the probable exit of the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the western bank of this river on the Byrdyn-Tetkino section.

In my opinion, the task is to take full control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, south of the Seim River, on the section from Alekseyevka to the line of Spalnoye - Gir'i.

As far as I understand, as of yesterday evening, in this regard, the immediate task was defined as the liquidation of the "Tetkin revolt". Considering the fact that the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already reached the line (approximately) Komarovka - Novoivanovka from the east... this does not seem so unrealistic.

Now about the reaction of the Russian command, about the events in the Kursk operational direction.

Apparently, it was decided to "hold on to the last" (as expected), that is, at the moment, the enemy's "North" group of troops (GV) was ordered to "find internal reserves", send personnel to various caches (including former Koenigsberg and "polar units"), but to deploy at least 5-6 more formations of the "battalion" level in combat-ready condition to key directions. For variety, it was proposed to send the most fashionable General Lapin to Korenevo (just kidding).

The only thing that the senior "comrades" agreed to was to return to the GV "North" its regular forces and resources... that is, the units and formations that are permanently part of the "Leningrad Military District" (LVO).
For example, units of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRB) are already being spotted in the rear of the Kursk group, and as far as I understand, the 80th SMRB will also soon join up.

The first one is from Kramatorsk direction, the second one is from Prydniprovsk...

Both are part of the 14th Army Corps...

In general, these are the "sought after" 5-6 battalions, but this is if these brigades reach Kursk, and not in a disassembled state...

However, the enemy's real need for forces and means in this direction is much greater, this is obvious. The operational density of troops that the Russian command has in the Kursk operational direction does not yet allow it to completely slow down the movement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Russians do not adhere to any norms or standards in this regard. They are capable of blocking the main transport hubs, directions... but they cannot properly solve the problem (stop the Ukrainian Armed Forces).

If we put aside professional terminology, then let's say this... for now the Russians have a "focal defense" in this direction (thanks to which the advanced mobile groups and units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces find gaps in the enemy's defense and advance on the flanks and rear of the enemy), although they are trying to build it up and make it continuous.

In this sense, the "5-6 battalions" I mentioned will not fundamentally resolve the issue. Sooner or later, the enemy command will have to think about larger reserves.

Moreover, the Russian command, in its characteristic style, is introducing troops into battle, as the military say, "on the fly." I described it in detail back during the Balakleya offensive in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so I won't repeat myself.

These broken and burned Russian columns near Rylsk and Korenevo are a direct consequence of the management ("leading of troops"), demonstrating the command of the GV "North".

Thus, it becomes obvious that the regrouping of a certain set of troops (forces) of the enemy's GV "North" from the Volchansk direction (units and subdivisions of the 11th and 44th AK) did not solve the problem... The enemy has not yet succeeded in stopping the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

At the same time, the Russian General Staff is in no hurry to use the bulk of its reserves as plumbing tow in the Kursk operational direction. Well, actually, no one expected that ignoramuses would serve there... after all, they don't wear fashionable striped pants and beautiful epaulettes there for no reason...

There, some of them even expressed at certain meetings (almost in a herd) a "daring idea"... and not to cosplay the Ukrainian Armed Forces for us and prepare, so to speak, their "asymmetrical response"... so to speak, in a place unexpected for them?

The only problem is that this answer, as well as the plumbing work in the Kursk region, will require another, and not a small, batch of FORCES and MEANS...

The question is… where can we get them quickly and in sufficient quantities?

Mobilization will NOT save you ANYMORE (because it requires the expenditure of the main resource, which the Pyil has almost no left - TIME...)

So, in a strategic sense, the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation (this is what we call the collective of psychopathic Chekists who have seized the Kremlin), in the context of the current course of the war, faces several, let's say... "problems"

- The "leaks" that threaten to turn into a real flood in the Kursk region need to be pecked with SOMETHING...

- Pokrovsk and Toretsk also "must be taken" (but they haven't even crawled to the first one yet)... abandoning these "offensive ambitions" for the sake of plumbing work in Kursk region will mean the same thing that their "offensive" last year meant for the Ukrainian Armed Forces...

- Obviously, neither the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nor Ukraine in general "this year" - will surrender and fall. Meanwhile, "inside" the Russian Federation itself, there have appeared quite weighty and quite unpleasant "bells" in the financial and economic sphere (it may happen that in the next "annual cycle" something will start to be noticeably lacking)...

- Probably, the Kremlin is now frantically calculating the consequences of the continued mobilization deployment of the Russian Armed Forces. But these consequences, even now, are completely unpredictable... from the economy (including the "wildly growing" military-industrial complex), which is already suffering from a shortage of skilled labor, in conditions of semi-isolation, to the socio-political sphere, or "interethnic relations"

And all this needs to be resolved not just SIMULTANEOUSLY, but in a very short period of time...

Moreover, this requires a whole TON of money, resources, etc., and most importantly – people...

As it turned out - if we start to rake in all sorts of unsuitable and reserved people from the entire "terrible" mobilization resource of the Russian Federation, there will certainly be someone to put into the Kremlin's ranks... and quite a few. But, as usual... there are nuances.

And the main one is - who said that Ukraine will "quietly observe" the Kremlin's attempts to "solve its current and future problems"...?

In my opinion... the main gifts are usually prepared for Christmas...

Mashovets on the developments in Kursk, specifically the Russian response.

He takes many things into account, especially the possible socio-economic consequences of mobilisation.

I find his point about time as a resource very interesting. The Kremlin needs to solve several problems yesterday, and the longer Puilo waits, the less impact his decisions will have on the current situation. But the problems is that hesitation to take certain decisions is motivated by internal factors. But that amounts to simply closing your eyes and telling your underlings "Just solve the problem!" without saying how and sending them scrambling for battalions from the motor rifle brigades deployed on the Donetsk front - which Mashovets considers inadequate, and will weaken the Russian strategy of continuous wave attacks.

Edited by Carolus
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Awhile back I joked that we don't have to worry about Trump getting elected and disbanding NATO because by the time he takes office next year Russia will be down to just seven tanks and no infantry. Russia's response to the incursion kind'a proves my point.

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Votum separatum on political effects of Kursk offensive (just one example, but shared by many more cold-headed Russia watchers):

https://x.com/kirlant/status/1825043111669543137

If we separate traditional muscovite social media panic from actual societal mood, there is relatively little difference so far. Even if Ukrainians dig 30kms from the border and keep the terrain till winter, Putin will not be forced by political factors alone to do anything hastly. His mojo will take a blow without doubt, but war is war, Russia is huge, her borders are amorphic and several villages matter little in the context.

Military reasons are naturally another matter.

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Clarification: When said "Russian wave attacks" I don't mean the Hollywood human wave that is depicted in movies, but the description from Ukrainains that Russians send continuously small teams, again and again and again, against a position faster than they can be reinforced and resupplied (and when you are fighting for your life it is hard to ration your hand grenades and ammo), and then making tiny progresses.

So the defenses are slowly eroded, like a rocky coastline by the endless small waves of the sea over the millenia.

So maybe "erosive warfare" (in contrast to Ukrainian "corrosive warfare") is the better expression.

Edited by Carolus
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12 hours ago, Butschi said:

The indiscriminate bombings are a particularly bad example to make your point. They were probably the number one obstacle for us to come to terms with Nazi crimes. Contrary to popular allied believe, the major part of that happened decades after the Nuremberg trials, when the next generation demanded to know what there parents did.

No, they are exactly the right example to make my point. Because my point is: all armies will commit war crimes at some point in time, but they are not equal to each other. There is intensity, longevity, priority, severity etc. to take into account. Which taken together make it clear, that US armed forces in WW2 were the good guys, despite indiscriminate bombings, unrestricted submarine warfare, atomic bombs and not taking POWs in the Pacific. That’s the way to combat whataboutism, not insistence that war crimes are something from the past and modern Western armies won’t commit them. Bollocks. They will. At the day when the US were leaving Kabul there was a famous incident when they blasted an unsuspecting Afghan family to smithereens. War crime? Of course. But in the overall scheme of things, the US in Afghanistan were still the good guys.

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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Votum separatum on political effects of Kursk offensive (just one example, but shared by many more cold-headed Russia watchers):

https://x.com/kirlant/status/1825043111669543137

If we separate traditional muscovite social media panic from actual societal mood, there is relatively little difference so far. Even if Ukrainians dig 30kms from the border and keep the terrain till winter, Putin will not be forced by political factors alone to do anything hastly. His mojo will take a blow without doubt, but war is war, Russia is huge, her borders are amorphic and several villages matter little in the context.

Military reasons are naturally another matter.

Not the herd of sheeps opinion that matters, they are fairly powerless. Its the nationalists and military that matters. The only ones that have the means to kick the guy in power out.

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13 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

No, they are exactly the right example to make my point. Because my point is: all armies will commit war crimes at some point in time, but they are not equal to each other. There is intensity, longevity, priority, severity etc. to take into account. Which taken together make it clear, that US armed forces in WW2 were the good guys, despite indiscriminate bombings, unrestricted submarine warfare, atomic bombs and not taking POWs in the Pacific. That’s the way to combat whataboutism, not insistence that war crimes are something from the past and modern Western armies won’t commit them. Bollocks. They will. At the day when the US were leaving Kabul there was a famous incident when they blasted an unsuspecting Afghan family to smithereens. War crime? Of course. But in the overall scheme of things, the US in Afghanistan were still the good guys.

Fair points.  The thing to consider, and when it comes to warcrimes they do, is whether a criminal incident is based on individual criminality or was it systemic.  A group of scared teenagers going rogue is definitely going to happen.  The question is whether their chain of command knew/supported/encouraged/created the conditions that led up to the crime.  If a formation commander has a reward system in place for "taking heads" [aside: Brad Pitts character in Inglorious Bastards was blatantly ordering his men to commit a war crime: "I want my scalps"] then the issue and prosecution thereof is much more intense.  As we saw in the Former Yugoslavia, this can go all the way to the top.

In Russia's case, they definitely go to the top.  We have missile strikes on civilian targets of no military worth in terror campaigns.  This means the entire military system that selects and prosecutes those targets is culpable in commission of these crimes.  In these cases, these are operational - and sometimes strategic - assets so we know the responsibility goes very high.  Russia may try and write off Bucha as a modern day Mai Lai and hang an Lt or two, but they cannot hide open missile terror strikes over two years.

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17 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is, for lack of a more elegant word, bollocks. In WW2, the Allies resorted both to indiscriminate bombing of cities and unlimited submarine warfare, in response to what Germans did. Having liberated Dachau concentration camp, US soldiers executed 50 guards on the spot. Having been, unwisely or purposefully, left in charge of Oskar Dirlewanger, the butcher of the Warsaw Uprising, Polish soldiers beat him daily until he died. None of this makes the Allied side morally equivalent to the Nazis.I am sorry, but in real life it matters who was the first, and who was taking his revenge.

Edited by Mattias
Evolving subject.
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30 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

No, they are exactly the right example to make my point. Because my point is: all armies will commit war crimes at some point in time, but they are not equal to each other. There is intensity, longevity, priority, severity etc. to take into account. Which taken together make it clear, that US armed forces in WW2 were the good guys, despite indiscriminate bombings, unrestricted submarine warfare, atomic bombs and not taking POWs in the Pacific. That’s the way to combat whataboutism, not insistence that war crimes are something from the past and modern Western armies won’t commit them. Bollocks. They will. At the day when the US were leaving Kabul there was a famous incident when they blasted an unsuspecting Afghan family to smithereens. War crime? Of course. But in the overall scheme of things, the US in Afghanistan were still the good guys.

The difference is surely that humanity, or much of it, it trying to evolve.  Your view seems to be that we stay in an unchanging state.  Five hundred years ago it was normal to burn witches and people who painted their church the wrong colour, two hundred years ago it was normal to keep slaves, one hundred years ago women did not vote.  Russia is behaving barbarically as a norm of behaviour.  War crimes are part of the russian operating manual: supposedly the enemy is intimidated and their own soldiers too.  Thankfully western societies reject russian behaviour whole heartedly.  Western armies make a big effort to behave differently, civilised, and avoid civilian casualties.  There is no equivalence.

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1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

No, they are exactly the right example to make my point. Because my point is: all armies will commit war crimes at some point in time, but they are not equal to each other.

I can’t seem to shake the feeling that you somehow want to defend/rationalise the actions of the “good” guys though. Am I right, or wrong?

 

I my professional experience it is generally the criminally minded minority in any society, whether it in itself is “bad” or “good”, that commit the excesses/crimes in any event. And there is no reason for the pro social majority of any society to condone that, no matter if the flag on the perpetrators shoulder is your own or a foreign one.

 

Edited by Mattias
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57 minutes ago, omae2 said:

Not the herd of sheeps opinion that matters, they are fairly powerless. Its the nationalists and military that matters. The only ones that have the means to kick the guy in power out.

They don't have such power nor sovereignity of judgement or decisions. Power of non-Kremlin nationalists in Russia is similar to liberal opposition if not even smaller (no economical basis); we discussed about position of military as well zillion times. Last charismatic person in Putin's entourage was Prig and everybody get the memo how he finished. So Putin may be forced to parlais with Ukraine due to internal economical situation in the end, but not because bayonets will grin outside his window. I'd say chances of internal coup are even less likely than at the start of this war now.

Note that on the top of whole situation, many Russians are genuinly convinced they are slowly winning this. Several hamlets near Kursk means nothing.

Edited by Beleg85
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Looks like our buddy Kadyrov has a shiny new ride! Courtesy of Elon Musk.


In this image from video posted by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's Telegram channel on Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024, Kadyrov drives a Tesla Cybertruck equipped with a machine gun in Grozny, Chechnya. (Ramzan Kadyrov Telegram channel via AP)

 

Kadyrov's chariot

"In a gushing post, Kadyrov, who rules over Chechnya, a republic within the Russian Federation, described the vehicle as “undoubtedly one of the best cars in the world. I literally fell in love.”

He has sent on invitation to Musk to visit him in Chechnya. The letter closes with something that sounds a bit ominous

"And, of course, we’re waiting for your new developments that will help us finish our special military operation (in Ukraine)."

I used to view Musk with a degree of indifference, but not anymore.

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Reportedly settelment of Nju-Jork fall into muscovite hands. It was bound to happen, probably local AFU commanders decided to retreat in face of imminent.

 

On slightly more optimistic tone; not sure 100% it was decoy, but it could be. Looks very convincing.

 

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Well actually Dresden was a military target. Once the Soviets launched their offensive in Jan.45, the Germans pulled the 6th SS Panzer Army out of the “Bulge” and sent it east by rail. Stalin asked the western Allies what they could to to slow it down. Allied AF HQ identified 5 choke points, railway marshalling yards in Eastern Germany that were “choke points”. One was in the center of Dresden. All five were hit.

Edited by Sgt Joch
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