How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian Telegarm. Aftermath of the strike on the ships in Berdiansk according to the unofficail sources - up to 50 KIA

They can leave anytime, meanwhile they can be made into sunflower fertilizer. I do hope the seeds are heat resistant.

[Kinophile]

@The_Capt Breakdown of trust between forward units and rear/command hq

Edited March 24, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

So what I picked up on was

- Obvious comms issues leading to all sorts of OPSEC failures

-  Logistical issues “no gas, food or water”.

- No air support or serious lack of integration.

- Morale issues

- At least two possible warcrimes.

- A lot of C2 issues, confusion and disorganization.

Anything else?

I was unquestionably the best thing the NYT has done in the whole month of the war. I really hope they do more just like it.

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of counter-battery work of UKR 57th mot.inf.brigade. 

 

[Kinophile]

I always like first person accounts.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/

@Haiduk what do you think?

Edited March 24, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

Anonymous strikes again

 

 

[slysniper]

17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unnamed Ground Vehicles are the wave of the future of ground warfare.  They can offer more punch, more survivability, more deployment options, and smaller size all for less money.  Further, they provide for many other benefits already seen with UAVs.

We're not even that far away from self-guided UGVs.  The Mars Perseverance Rover, Tesla, and various defense contractors are all working on this stuff at a feverish pace.  Once it is even remotely practical, it will find its way onto the battlefield in some way soon after.

 

17 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Everyone gasped when the Marines abandoned their tanks. And not long ago Britain was toying with the idea of abandoning its tank fleet, too, though that idea's apparently been discarded with the appearance of Challenger 3. That gives an indication that people in high places have been pondering the fate of the tank in a modern high threat battlespace. Its telling that Ukrainian tanks have finally made an appearance in phase 2 of the battle.

 

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In this case I'm not predicting the "demise" of MBTs because of their vulnerability, but also because of their production and lifetime costs, deployment limitations, manpower requirements (logistics in particular), fuel usage, and a bunch of other things combined with vulnerability.

As the purchase and support price tags continue to increase in order to combat the lethality of less expensive systems, at some point people are going to wonder if it's all worth it.  The big nations will probably slowly transition, the smaller nations will embrace it faster.  It's inevitable for economic reasons alone.

Well, if people would just listen, the day of the tank as we presently know it is coming to an end.

Here is some statements from those that might have a little more insight than most of the rest of us

But there is still a need for what a tank does, what that will look like in the future will come down to what  man will design to compete on the battlefield of the future at a cost they can afford.

No question we will see, unmanned, lighter faster platforms that can bring a heavy punch to a area needing clearing.

Also, I expect that counter measures to drones and drone type warfare will change and be added to soon. It really should not be hard to develop systems for the task. Because just as important as winning the skies with air power has been, winning the skies with drone power could be just as important.  So ground troops will need light weapon systems that can get the job done as to removing such threats. Actually I think the US has some systems presently that can remove enemy drones from the battle. 

But no question, warfare will evolve from this conflict if we don't go too far and turn this into the last war we as mankind sees.

But what we call tanks in the future (20 - 30 years) will likely change as much as what a tanks from WW1 has changed from our present day  

[sburke]

Germany Won't Pay Russia in Rubles for Natural Gas, Defying Putin Request (msn.com)

so much for that

[ASL Veteran]

27 minutes ago, slysniper said:

 

 

Well, if people would just listen, the day of the tank as we presently know it is coming to an end.

Here is some statements from those that might have a little more insight than most of the rest of us

But there is still a need for what a tank does, what that will look like in the future will come down to what  man will design to compete on the battlefield of the future at a cost they can afford.

No question we will see, unmanned, lighter faster platforms that can bring a heavy punch to a area needing clearing.

Also, I expect that counter measures to drones and drone type warfare will change and be added to soon. It really should not be hard to develop systems for the task. Because just as important as winning the skies with air power has been, winning the skies with drone power could be just as important.  So ground troops will need light weapon systems that can get the job done as to removing such threats. Actually I think the US has some systems presently that can remove enemy drones from the battle. 

But no question, warfare will evolve from this conflict if we don't go too far and turn this into the last war we as mankind sees.

But what we call tanks in the future (20 - 30 years) will likely change as much as what a tanks from WW1 has changed from our present day  

 

[akd]

@sburke

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, slysniper said:

But there is still a need for what a tank does, what that will look like in the future will come down to what  man will design to compete on the battlefield of the future at a cost they can afford.

This is the key point people who say "tanks won't go away" are missing.  Nobody is saying that there won't need to be a ground based armored weapons platform that is capable of working in combination with the other arms of a combined arms force.  At least I have yet to find anybody saying that   What people are saying is MBTs might soon not be the ideal choice for that role.  And there are plenty irrefutable benefits of UGVs vs. MBTs.

For me, the replacement of MBTs by UGVs is inevitable because the ability to do a straight swap is conceptually simple.  What to do about IFVs, on the other hand, is less clear.

1 hour ago, slysniper said:

No question we will see, unmanned, lighter faster platforms that can bring a heavy punch to a area needing clearing.

They already exist.  They might also exist in really good tactical wargames for professionals to figure out how to best utilize them.

1 hour ago, slysniper said:

Also, I expect that counter measures to drones and drone type warfare will change and be added to soon. It really should not be hard to develop systems for the task. Because just as important as winning the skies with air power has been, winning the skies with drone power could be just as important.  So ground troops will need light weapon systems that can get the job done as to removing such threats. Actually I think the US has some systems presently that can remove enemy drones from the battle. 

This is the next big deal in ground warfare.  Militaries speak of capabilities that have the ability to be "force multipliers".  Drones are whatever is better than a force multiplier.

Steve

[akd]

Said to be another strike on Kherson airport.  Looks like a few outgoing SAMs also:

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

Said to be another strike on Kherson airport.

So I guess Russia decided, once again, to park a bunch of helicopters there?  I wouldn't put it past them to think "the last 7 times this didn't go well, so what could possibly go wrong with an 8th time?"

That sounded like a rather large strike.

Steve

[Fenris]

This story is a bit sentimental but it does appear to indicate a fairly static situation east of Kharkiv.  Also the first time I've seen an automatic grenade launcher

 

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So I guess Russia decided, once again, to park a bunch of helicopters there?  I wouldn't put it past them to think "the last 7 times this didn't go well, so what could possibly go wrong with an 8th time?"

That sounded like a rather large strike.

Steve

The Russians seem to think that the"Black Adder" was giving serious advice...

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russians seem to think that the"Black Adder" was giving serious advice...

Brilliant plan!!

Next training program for combating UKR drones.

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by sburke

[sburke]

General Assembly resolution demands end to Russian offensive in Ukraine | | UN News

Five countries - Belarus, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (more commonly known as North Korea) Eritrea, Russia and Syria

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by sburke

[db_zero]

Just watch all these people saying UVGs and drones will replace MBTs. In a year or 2 Poland will have 250 M1s. Germany will have more MBTs. 
 

I’m not saying there’s going to be thousands of MBTs rolling off the production lines. These days production runs are smaller but the weapons are far more effective. You don’t crank out thousands of P-51 or F-4s like you used to and tanks are no different…

In the meantime where’s this UVG so many are predicting? It takes the Pentagon years to get a prototype out and years more of testing. 

I’ve seen all sorts of concepts and some small ones are probably in use but something along the lines that will replace the MBT? That’s  years away and will it be completely autonomous or remote controlled? 

UAVs we’re extensively used in the Viet-Nam war and people were then lobbying for it to be used in more ways and visionaries were predicting pilots would become obsolete.

Now 48 years later piloted aircraft are still in use and a lot of wars and conflicts fought using the “outdated concept” of manned aircraft.

IMO we’re at least 20 years maybe longer away from any sort of limited use of a unmanned replacement for the MBT and between now and then a lot of fighting.

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by db_zero

[danfrodo]

Am i correct in that Putin thought he would still go the G20 meeting?  And that he'd be allowed to enter?  Wow, that is chutzpah!!

It's in Riyadh, would the saudis actually say OK for him to enter their country??

[akd]

Convoy ambush:

 

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Am i correct in that Putin thought he would still go the G20 meeting?  And that he'd be allowed to enter?  Wow, that is chutzpah!!

It's in Riyadh, would the saudis actually say OK for him to enter their country??

Yeah, the Saudis might, but the Saudis are world class BLEEEEEEEEPS. So maybe the Russians get the boot 17 to three instead of 19-1. I am not super clear on the rules of voting on your own expulsion. I am also very OK with a revised g20 that has some shred of standards for the member countries, which would boot the Saudis right out. In the medium term the civilized world just needs to get off oil. I realize that isn't cheap or painless, but it pretty much solves every foreign policy problem except China. Iran's bomb, and every nut and bolt of Putin's war machine, are paid for with oil/gas money. At some point we have to wise up.

[LongLeftFlank]

Much of this is familiar to readers here, but a good summary of the RA comms problems:

https://www.rferl.org/a/communication-lapses-russia-invasion-failures/31761259.html

Some of the roots of the Russian communication lapses lie in mismanaged development and procurement processes for things like tactical military radios, undertrained and under-deployed specialists, and the challenges of operating on foreign soil, where the enemy controls not only cellular networks but also wired communications that frequently serve as a reliable backup channel....

RA troops are forced to use a system that's common to the least advanced among them.... In other words, mixing so-called open and encrypted systems makes them only as strong as their weakest link. "

....outside the bases of the Russian armed forces in Syria, everyone uses mobile phones and Chinese 'balalaikas,' a reference to civilian walkie-talkies manufactured by China's Baofeng.

The Russian battalion tactical groups immediately went a much greater distance from the border, [and] appeared to have outrun their communications support.... Repeater cars and new communication towers need to be installed along the way, and their set-up and use require experienced operators. Indirectly, this indicates that the Russian offensive groups didn't expect to stay on the road for a long time.

...they simply take out Ukrainian SIM cards and call Russia, allowing the Ukrainian military and intelligence not only to easily intercept the content of the conversations, but also to determine the location of the caller.... many Russian generals talk on unsecured phones and radios, and in at least one case Ukrainians geolocated a call and killed him in an attack on his location.

 

[FlammenwerferX]

Should we really be supporting a country  where everyone films vertically?

Edited March 25, 2022 by FlammenwerferX

[silverstars]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

This story is a bit sentimental but it does appear to indicate a fairly static situation east of Kharkiv.  Also the first time I've seen an automatic grenade launcher

 

Looking at the uniforms of the interviewed soldiers...Anyone know what's up with what looks like an SS Totenkopf patch at 4:10? His friend's "Thor Mit Uns" patch is a bit more amusing.....

 

[Phantom Captain]

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

...they simply take out Ukrainian SIM cards and call Russia, allowing the Ukrainian military and intelligence not only to easily intercept the content of the conversations, but also to determine the location of the caller.... many Russian generals talk on unsecured phones and radios, and in at least one case Ukrainians geolocated a call and killed him in an attack on his location.

 

Stupid is as stupid does as stupid dies.