How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

Worthwhile: 

 

 

Edited May 5 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

Clip of Ukrainian octocopter shooting down a smaller quadrocopter.

Poster claims it's combat footage but I think it looks like training / testing.

 

 

Agreed.  They'd have put a coat of paint on this thing before sending it out for real.  Also, there's still live trees and we know how much Russia hates trees!

This is definitely the way to go for anti-drone action.  At least for the time being.  Way more practical and effective than $1m laser trucks.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is definitely the way to go for anti-drone action.  At least for the time being.  Way more practical and effective than $1m laser trucks.

The China Lake boys just put together a $5k missile (“Spike”?) with a 1lb warhead and 5lb overall weight. That seems like the ticket. Just make it a bit smaller again, and you have an air-launch anti-drone missile that won’t break the bank.

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, zinz said:

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-30-april-2024

According to Tom Cooper the seperation from rocket to bomb is the problem currently. That sounds fixable at least but is not a small problem to get right. 

 

Thanks for providing those additional details.  As painful as these teething pains are, and they have importance in maturing these new systems under real conditions ,

This conflict is a real crucible for testing new systems and tactics.

[pintere]

From a Ukrainian Telegram. Can’t confirm, though interesting if true. We may see more of western troops being introduced gradually into ever more direct roles.

"France secretly sent its military to Ukraine - ex-Pentagon official Stephen Bryan

According to him, about 100 Foreign Legion soldiers from the 3rd French Infantry Regiment were stationed in Slavyansk to support the 54th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They do artillery and surveillance. In total, it is planned to send about 1,500 legionnaires to Ukraine.

It is not possible to confirm that information…"

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, pintere said:

From a Ukrainian Telegram. Can’t confirm, though interesting if true. We may see more of western troops being introduced gradually into ever more direct roles.

"France secretly sent its military to Ukraine - ex-Pentagon official Stephen Bryan

According to him, about 100 Foreign Legion soldiers from the 3rd French Infantry Regiment were stationed in Slavyansk to support the 54th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They do artillery and surveillance. In total, it is planned to send about 1,500 legionnaires to Ukraine.

It is not possible to confirm that information…"

Mmmm... A snake bites own tail )

Initially this rumor was shared by Russians milbloggers. Then maybe it was cought and shared by some "experts" like ISW and Bryan has read it and repeated as own inside. But. Almost after first appearance this rumor was refuted by other Russian milblogger. He told 3rd FL regiment is deployed in French Guiana and guard Kourou Space Center. Servicemen of this regiment live in Guiana permanently and they are not allowed to leave the country during their service. Also 3rd regiment hasn't artillery, so they just can't assist Ukrainians in this.

Maybe French friends will tell more about this. 

PS. I doubt also that 54th brigade is in Sloviansk now

Edited May 5 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

The projectile shown is a Vulcano round produced by Diehl, not Rheinmetall. Vulcano is already in Ukraine (since last year?). Apart from GPS, it uses inertial guidance and has a laser mode.

So I guess they are talking about something different.

A 100km range and a multimode seeker are simply going to be the standard going forward. The balance between guns, missiles, and drones is another question.

Edited May 5 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

The Russians wanted to limit the Ukrainian military to 85k personnel. Given Ukraine's tooth-to-tail ratio (~3:1) this would have amounted to a combat force of just ~28k with the rest in combat/combat-service support. This would have been tantamount to unconditional surrender.

 

 

[Blazing 88's]

Good interview.
General Hodges on Retaking Crimea, NATO in Ukraine and Russian Collapse

EDIT:
Some other news...

The U.S Army Just Unveiled The Newest Version Of Its Combat-Tested Bradley IFV
with 'Iron Fist' Active Protection System:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/the-u-s-army-just-unveiled-the-newest-version-of-its-combat-tested-bradley-ifv/ar-AA1o8T42?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=076c22a83e4c401ce1a03e613f3add05&ei=45

Edited May 5 by Blazing 88's

[dan/california]

Yet another case of "How does the Russian Army keep going"?

 

[ASL Veteran]

 

[zinz]

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-4-may-2024

Tom Cooper points out the increased hunt for Russian air defense systems in the last week. Accompanied with firework videos. 

[zinz]

9 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

 

Not sure if this has been posted here before

[Bulletpoint]

 

I don't like to call Russians "Orks", but this is straight out of Warhammer 40K

[cesmonkey]

From Ukrainian Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/679
 

Quote

In connection with the difficult situation in the East, for two days he worked in units conducting defensive operations in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, that is, in the direction of the enemy's main attack.

It is here that the main striking forces of the enemy are concentrated, who are trying to break through the defense of our troops and, developing success, reach the large settlements of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk.

Having from the very beginning a numerical advantage in personnel, weapons and military equipment, the enemy daily attacks the positions of our troops. Our task in these conditions is to hold the occupied lines and positions, use artillery fire, strike UAVs and all means to inflict maximum losses on the enemy, exhaust him, thereby disrupt the enemy's plans and gain time for the formation and preparation of our reserves.

Worked with unit commanders.
The role and place of the officer has always been decisive in achieving success or defeat on the battlefield. It is impossible for a company or battalion commander to manage a battle a few kilometers away from his units, and to make balanced and adequate decisions at a distance, especially when the intensity of hostilities escalates and there is a high risk to the lives of fighters. The presence of the commander plays a decisive role in maintaining a high level of morale and psychological state among subordinates, their stability, confidence that they are not left to their own devices.

While working with the brigade commanders and their subordinates, he made all the necessary decisions to strengthen the defense with reserves, allocate an additional number of missiles, ammunition, EW and UAVs. I am sure that this will help our units to successfully repel enemy attacks and inflict significant losses on them.

Of course, on the eve of our professional holiday, Infantry Day, he presented honors and awards to the best soldiers who distinguished themselves in battles with the invaders.

We will win!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

I don't like to call Russians "Orks", but this is straight out of Warhammer 40K

This is where we are at.  That thing is not a tank anymore, it is a slowly rolling pillbox.  And here is the thing, every tank needs the same level of protection.  No point in making a minefield safelane if every other tank coming through can be killed trying to come through it.  This video has a great shot from the cupola that really demonstrates just how little the crew can see and target.  Ways to kill it:

Road wheels and track are still exposed.

EFP on the sides and back.

Incendiary/fuel/fire.  That giant box on the back is going to hold the heat in and really raise risk of overheating.  Helping that along would not be a bad idea.

And of course..artillery, tandem warheads and good old direct fires from sniping tanks.

What blows my mind is that we are at this point in 2024.  This is how far things have gone in two short years.

[Heirloom_Tomato]

Russia announces they will hold drills involving tac nukes.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-announces-nuclear-weapon-drills-after-angry-exchange-with-senior-western-officials-1.6874646

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That thing is not a tank anymore, it is a slowly rolling pillbox.

Don’t kink shame me.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Don’t kink shame me.

What a man does with his tank porn in the privacy of his own cardboard box…

[Carolus]

Might be confirmation for the airplane (reported as SU25) shot down on the Donbas front a dew days ago.

 

[Tux]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

I don't like to call Russians "Orks", but this is straight out of Warhammer 40K

This looks like something designed in a Berlin bunker by Ferdinand Porsche, with Hitler drooling over his shoulder throughout.  Name it after a rodent and let it join the pantheon of barely mobile, over-armoured, terrible AFV designs of the mid-1940s.  As far as I can see it’ll have almost all the same flaws…

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is where we are at.  That thing is not a tank anymore, it is a slowly rolling pillbox.  And here is the thing, every tank needs the same level of protection.  No point in making a minefield safelane if every other tank coming through can be killed trying to come through it.  This video has a great shot from the cupola that really demonstrates just how little the crew can see and target.  Ways to kill it:

Road wheels and track are still exposed.

EFP on the sides and back.

Incendiary/fuel/fire.  That giant box on the back is going to hold the heat in and really raise risk of overheating.  Helping that along would not be a bad idea.

And of course..artillery, tandem warheads and good old direct fires from sniping tanks.

What blows my mind is that we are at this point in 2024.  This is how far things have gone in two short years.

I'm surprised nobody has pointed out that this sort of thing has been tried before and it failed miserably:

 

This design was determined to be too slow, too big, and too difficult to use that the concept was abandoned.  Not only that, these things failed at a time when there was almost no AT weaponry available other than artillery.  The closest revival of this was some of Soviet and German monsters that were at least experimented with at the end of WW2, only to be quickly abandoned again after the war.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

Russia announces they will hold drills involving tac nukes.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-announces-nuclear-weapon-drills-after-angry-exchange-with-senior-western-officials-1.6874646

The was a moment there in 2022 when the possibility came closer than usual but I'd argue still not very close. This is much less significant.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

The was a moment there in 2022 when the possibility came closer than usual but I'd argue still not very close. This is much less significant.

Yes, especially because at the time Putin hadn't clearly shown he had the Qaddafi concept of red line:

 

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles. Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.

Russian Milblogger Fighterbomber addressed the situation earlier today. "the Ukrainians were able to somehow connect the rocket with the USV telecontrol systems and are trying to work with them... At the moment, the most effective means against USVs are helicopters.

Russian forces were able to destroy this one off the coast of Crimea: (link to TASS)

Of note, last month, a Russian Mi-24 Hind went down in a murky incident over the Black Sea, Russian sources reported it was on a USV hunting mission, and the Russian MOD reported it crashed due to a "loss of spatial orientation”.