How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[c3k]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR 2S7 Pion in action

 

 

Nothing says "here's some love" like 8". 

Not sure if the daylight scenes are anything other than peacetime exercise?

(I -know- the US had reasons for standardizing on the 155mm, but the 175mm and 203mm sure seem like they'd still be pretty useful.)

[DesertFox]

Seems legit:

 

 

[Cobetco]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

 

I just saw this and was going to post it, this doesn't count the DNR or wagner guys I bet. so its probably alot higher.

[dan/california]

A couple of hundred Nato cruise missile could  end Putin's rolling atrocity in Ukraine in an afternoon. NATO ISR assets have tracked virtually everything from the beginning. We know where the critical logistics nodes and the most critical artillery assets are. 

[akd]

 

Video uploaded today to TikTok, supposedly from Kherson area:

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

46 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

The one trillion dollar nuclear question that everyone asked in the Cold War: Would Washington trade New York for Hamburg or Bonn? Would it risk a total strike against the homeland to save the skin of some Europeans, if push really came to shove.

This is an unanswerable question. You cannot logic your way to an appropriate solution, trust me many far smarter than we have tried. Short of testing out your pet theory with a little light nuclear warfare, what remains for the US is convincing the other guy they might trade Bonn for Boston. If the risk is sufficient enough to prevent the USSR from taking a shot to test the theory, then deterrence has worked. 

But we have now an interesting wrinkle in our deterrence theory. The defender, the responder to escalation, is always in the weaker position. The enemy always has the plutonium stick to shake around. They can constantly flirt with the proposition that perhaps they make test the question and find out. Therefore NATO and the US, as the reactive party, always had to ensure that their deterrence threat was credible. This required a very careful balancing of both nuclear and conventional forces to prevent a Russian attempt at 'wormhole' escalation at any level. But it also required the careful selection of policies and crafting of forces to ensure that an appropriate and overwhelming retaliatory strike was on offer, and to suggest that there was genuine will to match any Russian raise. 

This is why I think the 'weak west' narrative is so mistaken. As with the rest of the conflict, if the US backs down from nuclear confrontation with the USSR in the face of an overt threat or Russian first use, it would spell the end of the entire ballgame. The answer to the above question must never move from maybe to probably not. If it did, Taiwain, Poland, Norway, everything would be up for grabs. There would be nothing to deter other powers from going 'all in' against US allies, especially if the plutonium stick works so well. This is one of those things the US just has to do if it wants to stay a superpower. To do otherwise would require the US to basically hang up the cape. It would be akin to totally withdrawing from NATO. It also explains why the US policy has been so moderated and calculated. It has to thread the eye of a needle between escalation and a firm response. Firm enough that no doubt is created regarding US resolve, but soft enough that there is no serious enough threat to require a Russian escalation. Very difficult tightrope.

But make no mistake, if it comes down to it the US will have to retaliate against a Russian nuclear attack in the Ukraine. That may not come in the way of a counterstrike, but it will happen. It has to happen. Because otherwise the entire proposition of deterrence is undermined. The entire NATO system is sabotaged. There can be no leaks under the nuclear umbrella. 

the problem with this whole argument is the west does have an escalation response if Russia uses a tactical nuke that isn't WW3 but a clear message to Russia that it can't get away with it.  Take out a boomer... or two.  Russia then has to decide how to respond and risk a further escalation.

Edited March 21, 2022 by sburke

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

I just saw this and was going to post it, this doesn't count the DNR or wagner guys I bet. so its probably alot higher.

LDNR fighters, especially their new conscripts - nobody count them. Locals write they suffer sever losses in direct assaults of Avdiivka, Siverodonetsk, Rubizhne. Russian command threw in first lines these conscripts, and only after "regular" separs troops.

DPR conducted already second wave of mobilization - almost all factories and coal mines are closed, now came for 18-19 year students and 60+ workers and miners. This is already just annihilation..

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

  I have been thinking a lot about the defensives and this war.  The UA has conducted what looks like a very dynamic and mobile hybrid-based defence that essentially has brought the Russians to a strategic standstill. 

...

   So what?  Well at the tactical level the Russian challenge is significant in the defence.  The standard approach is to dig in along key/vital terrain in interlocking unit/sub-unit groups. 

...

    Problem here at the tactical level for the Russians are rear-area security is much harder.  Even if they remove the local populations, or at least take away their ability to communicate, the UA still has UAVs everywhere and so far the Russians have not demonstrated much in the way of C-UAV, particularly the smaller ISR sets.

...

     This entire thing creates a deeper dilemma for the Russians at the tactical level - how do you take and hold ground when the act of doing so makes you more vulnerable to your opponent than they become to you?

These points show the level of incompetence within the Russian leadership, especially military leadership.  All of these concepts were known to even me prior to this war, and I'm just a guy whose read some stuff and made a couple of games.  In fact, Russia's inability to secure the terrain it occupies is the #1 reason I (and others, of course) concluded that there was no way Russia could win.  Ever.

Now, if Ukraine hadn't fought as smart and Russia hadn't proven that it is as inept and incompetent at waging war, things would have eventually played out the same way.  Which is Russia not being able to withstand a prolonged and bloody occupation.

For proof of this, look at the current situation.  Russia has nominally gained control over roughly 30-50% (depending on how you define "control") of the terrain it had intended to take in the first few days.  More significantly, it has only one major population center (Kherson) under its control.  And yet... not really.  It's military forces are there, but the control is lacking for sure.  Control means the local population doesn't keep putting its flags back up the flagpoles.

The counter attack concept I described a few pages ago takes advantage of this instability.  Squads or platoons of lightly armed, lightly encumbered PISSED OFF Ukrainians running around behind Russian units shooting up stuff is not something that can be countered.  Especially when the dug in frontline units are also being subjected to neutralizing attacks.

This is why I didn't think Putin was stupid enough to go full invasion.  The warning signs for things going badly were right there for all to see.  And yet he pulled the trigger.  It's just a matter of time before the inevitable end comes about.  Which is, Russia ejected from Ukraine.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Among todays photos of destroyed vehciles almost nothing interesting, trucks, MTLBs, all like always. But, this is good one. Destroyed T-90A probably with IED or AT mine. Zaporizhzhia oblast

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Among todays photos of destroyed vehciles almost nothing interesting, trucks, MTLBs, all like always. But, this is good one. T-90A destroyed probably with IED or AT mine. Zaporizhzhia oblast

 

Completely blew out the torsion bar. That was a little more than just an AT-mine, methinks.

[rocketman]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Among todays photos of destroyed vehciles almost nothing interesting, trucks, MTLBs, all like always. But, this is good one. Destroyed T-90A probably with IED or AT mine. Zaporizhzhia oblast

In your assessment, how prolific is the Ukranian use of AT-mines and IEDs? Is it a vital part of controlling advances and covoys?

[c3k]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

LDNR fighters, especially their new conscripts - nobody count them. Locals write they suffer sever losses in direct assaults of Avdiivka, Siverodonetsk, Rubizhne. Russian command threw in first lines these conscripts, and only after "regular" separs troops.

DPR conducted already second wave of mobilization - almost all factories and coal mines are closed, now came for 18-19 year students and 60+ workers and miners. This is already just annihilation..

The good news? After all these poor souls are gone, getting back to the pre-2014 borders will be much easier with all the pro-Russians' lives having been expended by their masters in Moscow.

[dan/california]

Usual cautions apply, truth is the first casualty, ect., But given confirmed Russian vehicle losses, epic incompetence at every level, and complete disregard for their own troops welfare, I find it credible.

[akd]

In regards to whether the KP.ru article was a leak or a hack, the article has been updated, but only to remove the paragraph with official casualties.

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, c3k said:

The good news? After all these poor souls are gone, getting back to the pre-2014 borders will be much easier with all the pro-Russians' lives having been expended by their masters in Moscow.

One has to wonder how many men there are left to grab in the DLPR.  Before the war most able bodied men were either in the militias or had left for Ukraine, Russia, or elsewhere for work.  The pool to draw from must be quite shallow.

Steve

[sburke]

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Monday that it had summoned the U.S. ambassador to warn that President Joe Biden's recent remarks have put Russian-American relations on the verge of rupture.

 

What f'n planet do these guys live on?  Verge of rupture?

[Battlefront.com]

Some possible info on the counter attacks around Kiev.  If true, this is a major setback for the Russians.  Not in terms of their attack plans (those are long since infeasible), but in terms of them defending their positions on the western side of Kiev.  Pushing them back towards Belarus will send an important single that Russia is "on the back foot" as they say.

 

[Ultradave]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Monday that it had summoned the U.S. ambassador to warn that President Joe Biden's recent remarks have put Russian-American relations on the verge of rupture.

 

What f'n planet do these guys live on?  Verge of rupture?

If only there was a way within Russia's control that relations could be improved 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

If only there was a way within Russia's control that relations could be improved 

Yup.  I mean, as far as I know nations aren't compelled to murder masses of women and children in their homes.  I'm pretty sure it's a choice, which implies that just maybe Russia is responsible for its actions and, again just speculating here, relations could be better if they altered their behavior.

Ah, but what do I know?  This diplomacy stuff is said to be quite complex!

Steve

[womble]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

I also don't get why NATO/USA was so explicit in that they won't be sending troops

Simply to deny Putin (or any other autocrats, naming no Xis) any mileage out of "American Imperialism". Which is, in the end, going to be vital.

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the Nato response to a Russian tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine would be to immediately implement a no-fly zone and a warning that any further ABC attacks would be met with strikes against Russian forces inside Ukraine.

Economic measures are perhaps outside NATO's specific remit, but every NATO country would take several large steps closer to closing Russia out of the world trade markets entirely. No oil or gas. No trade at all, and they'd make the measures transitive, too. As has been said: the response to an attack on a non-NATO member doesn't have to be as tit-for-tat as the response under Article 5 would have to be.

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

LDNR fighters, especially their new conscripts - nobody count them. Locals write they suffer sever losses in direct assaults of Avdiivka, Siverodonetsk, Rubizhne. Russian command threw in first lines these conscripts, and only after "regular" separs troops.

DPR conducted already second wave of mobilization - almost all factories and coal mines are closed, now came for 18-19 year students and 60+ workers and miners. This is already just annihilation..

Anyone want to bet that after the war, some people in Russia will point to the absence of young men in LDNR as "evidence" that they were right about Ukraine committing genocide? 

[Maquisard manqué]

59 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Oh dear. That's going to piss at least one tractor off quite a bit: look at the careful sowing. How can the combine get around that safely?

Edited March 21, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[rocketman]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Anyone want to bet that after the war, some people in Russia will point to the absence of young men in LDNR as "evidence" that they were right about Ukraine committing genocide? 

Sadly in this post-truth world of ours it seems inevitable

[Haiduk]

59 minutes ago, rocketman said:

In your assessment, how prolific is the Ukranian use of AT-mines and IEDs? Is it a vital part of controlling advances and covoys?

Usual practic since 2014

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  I mean, as far as I know nations aren't compelled to murder masses of women and children in their homes.  I'm pretty sure it's a choice, which implies that just maybe Russia is responsible for its actions and, again just speculating here, relations could be better if they altered their behavior.

Ah, but what do I know?  This diplomacy stuff is said to be quite complex!

Steve

Given that Russia says it had no choice but to invade because NATO and US are bad and existential threat to RU, this makes total sense.  Because Jewish President is making nazi horde army and US set up a super secret bio-terror weapons lab in the most vulnerable place it could fine.  Yes, makes perfect sense.