How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sross112]

1 hour ago, rocketman said:

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for standing up to effing s**thead Putin, but the sad fact is that we have to factoring in the reality of the worst before deciding what to do. Personally, my fear turns to white hot anger in a somewhat productive way. If I didn’t worry, then I would start to worry if you get what I mean. So, when the war is over and we are all hopefully still here, I intend on turning that anger into a strong opposition to nuclear weapons. They are barbaric. It is insane that some countries can have them and thereby weild enourmous power over other countries. And they can have thousands of them. Can Sweden have one? Noooooo! So, my conclusion is that no one should have any. Is that realistic. No. Does that mean I will accept it. No. Anger/fear in this case turns to reaction/action which is productive for me. Accepting that people toy with the world for power’s sake (see lyrics for Dylan’s Masters of War). Am I a pacifist? No, but darn close to.

I agree and there's just no good answer. If every country had them we'd have multiple mushroom clouds by the end of the day. If no one has them it is perpetual world wars. The status quo has worked pretty good, but then as we see now it is almost impossible for a country to just be neutral. Even though I think most peoples of most countries just want to be left alone to live their lives and prosper they need to have a nuclear friend if they have an ***hole neighbor like Russia. Like a lot of things in life, it ain't fair and it sucks, but what is the answer? 

[Battlefront.com]

Actions have consequences and so does inaction.  Anonymous affiliate is threatening large Western corporations that have not pulled support for Russian operations:

 

Soon Ukraine's Territorial Defenses will be better equipped than the Russians they are fighting.  Probably better at driving tanks too:

[Probus]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

This. No response at the first attempt means you get rolled worse down the road. But a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian city isn’t an attack triggering Article 5 and responses don’t have to be an exact tit for tat response.

Putin won’t use nukes. He’s too afraid the West would respond in kind. After all, in his mind, that’s what he would do if Russian troops got nuked. He doesn’t want to give NATO an excuse to escalate their involvement. And if he used a nuke, just one, the West wouldn’t stop until Putin was dethroned. It’s simply not worth the risk. 
 

Unfortunately, I think he’ll use chemical weapons first and he’s a lot more likely to do that, but still very unlikely. That would make him look weak to his fan base if the West can prove he did it.
 

Just my opinion of course…

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

the problem with this whole argument is the west does have an escalation response if Russia uses a tactical nuke that isn't WW3 but a clear message to Russia that it can't get away with it.  Take out a boomer... or two.  Russia then has to decide how to respond and risk a further escalation.

If the US knows where all the Russian missile subs are and can take them out any time they want, doesn't that completely defeat the purpose of having ballistic missile subs in the first place?

Also, it's a kind of vague response to secretly take out two submarines somewhere in the ocean if the Russians just nuked Ukraine. Everybody will see the mushroom cloud all over the news, but nobody will even know what happened as a response out at sea.

 

[Haiduk]

Maxim MG, the system 100+ years in servise!  

These MG use fire support companies of motorized infantry battalions and territorial defense battalions

 

[womble]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

If the US knows where all the Russian missile subs are and can take them out any time they want, doesn't that completely defeat the purpose of having ballistic missile subs in the first place?

Also, it's a kind of vague response to secretly take out two submarines somewhere in the ocean if the Russians just nuked Ukraine. Everybody will see the mushroom cloud all over the news, but nobody will even know what happened as a response out at sea.

 

While it's possible that the US has a trace on every foreign boomer, they don't necessarily have targeting solutions on them all that can be prosecuted before they hit launch depth and fire of their nukes. Nuclear-armed subs are a first strike weapon, and if you're going to strike first, you don't care if your empty boomers are all killed; they were never going to make it back to port to re-arm anyway, largely because all the ports they might've used would be glowing craters shortly after the first strike was detected.

I think you can only wax any boomer if you are 100% sure you're gonna get them all in one simultaneous, coordinated strike. Because if someone attacks your first strike weapon, and they don't completely destroy it, you gotta use what's left before they sort their act out and sink the rest, or, you're right, there was no point having them. If you're doing it in response to a nuclear action, the party whose subs you are sinking has already crossed a line, and there's a good chance they'll escalate right along with you. Forcing them to "jump bid" straight to all-out ICBM launch might cause enough pause for thought to bring a halt to the escalation. But sinking an entire sub fleet inside an hour or so would be a heroic task, even for an outfit with as proud a record as the US bubbleheads. Probably only possible in a Tom Clancy novel.

 

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Nuclear-armed subs are a first strike weapon

I know they can achieve short flight times by launching close to the coast, but I always saw nuclear submarines as second strike weapons meant to guarantee destruction of an attacker even if that attacker conducted a first strike without warning.

[Kinophile]

Hitting a boomer would trigger MAD for sure. So no dice there.

NATO would need to hit conventional only, but even then, theres a scale of conventional attack/damage that is functionally/psychologically equivalent to a nuclear attack (depending on what is hit and how critical it is to the nuclear deterrent).

Stay within the Ukraine border and destroy every single command post above battalion, destroy every single artillery piece findable. Cyber attacks to Lock the Kremlin out of its out media control - replace all broadcasts with Ukrainian news. Plus all the economic iron lock out - shut all external trade, shut down Russias internal banking system (go for payments - no pay to state employees), stop every payment going in. Let China do what it wants, if it really wants to saddle itself with a violent, unpredictable and stupid parasitic regime.

Essentially - destroy the Ukraine invasion once and for all, erode the regime's public face to its society, erode/corrupt/disrupt the society's internal financial systems. Turn the society inside out, on top of its elite.

Even then...

[Probus]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

NATO would need to hit conventional only, but even then, theres a scale of conventional attack/damage that is functionally/psychologically equivalent to a nuclear attack (depending on what is hit and how critical it is to the nuclear deterrent).

Stay within the Ukraine border and destroy every single command post above battalion, destroy every single artillery piece findable. Cyber attacks to Lock the Kremlin out of its out media control - replace all broadcasts with Ukrainian news. Plus all the economic iron lock out - shut all external trade, shut down Russias internal banking system (go for payments - no pay to state employees), stop every payment going in. Let China do what it wants, if it really wants to saddle itself with a violent, unpredictable and stupid parasitic regime.

Essentially - destroy the Ukraine invasion once and for all, erode the regime's public face to its society, erode/corrupt/disrupt the society's internal financial systems. Turn the society inside out, on top of its elite.

Even then...

And that’s just for starters!

[Haiduk]

Ukr troops reportedly liberated Nalyvaikivka village in 6 km NW from Makariv town, Kyiv oblast. I can't confirm this, but at least here three Russian losses from that place. 3 destroyed BMPs and abandoned T-80BVM

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hitting a boomer would trigger MAD for sure. So no dice there.

NATO would need to hit conventional only, but even then, theres a scale of conventional attack/damage that is functionally/psychologically equivalent to a nuclear attack (depending on what is hit and how critical it is to the nuclear deterrent).

Stay within the Ukraine border and destroy every single command post above battalion, destroy every single artillery piece findable. Cyber attacks to Lock the Kremlin out of its out media control - replace all broadcasts with Ukrainian news. Plus all the economic iron lock out - shut all external trade, shut down Russias internal banking system (go for payments - no pay to state employees), stop every payment going in. Let China do what it wants, if it really wants to saddle itself with a violent, unpredictable and stupid parasitic regime.

Essentially - destroy the Ukraine invasion once and for all, erode the regime's public face to its society, erode/corrupt/disrupt the society's internal financial systems. Turn the society inside out, on top of its elite.

Even then...

Not necessarily.  Launching a missile or a bomber flight is very visible with potential for errors in response.  One boomer isn't going to give notification time and the boomer itself would not have time to launch.  It isn't a message to everyone, it is a message to the Russian military.  Basically Russia would know we took one out, in that time they have no other reports of losses.  Trying to take out all their boomers would be a whole other thing.  So what do they do?  Decide to launch a full on MAD strike?  On the other hand a full blown NATO aerial assault on the Russian army?  That is less escalatory?

that being said I think we are just falling for Putin's usual.  Threats and hoping that NATO will back off. 

[Kinophile]

God I cannot wait for the Kiev attack collapse to begin.

[Battlefront.com]

Guys, I think the nuke thing is interesting but it's a bit distracting.  Especially because we might not be able to talk about it for very long if it should happen.

I think we should try to focus more on what is going on rather than a really remote (at least at this stage) possibility.

Steve

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

God I cannot wait for the Kiev attack collapse to begin.

Not so fast. They moved new units here, Marines in this time. Their NW group try to advance to Zhytomyr oblast

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

More Chechens standing around trying to look useful in Mariupol while old T-72B and T-72AV head further into city:

Azolstal (Azov Steel) complex in Mariupol getting hit by Russian artillery (probably TOS-1A).  Irony is that Azovstal is owned by pro-Russian oligarch:

 

[Cogust]

Ukraine president says any compromises with Russia will require a referendum | Reuters

This doesn't sound like a guy that is about to offer a draw.

[sburke]

Polish activists halt supplies to Russia with Belarus border protest | World | News | Express.co.uk

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukr troops reportedly liberated Nalyvaikivka village in 6 km NW from Makariv town, Kyiv oblast. I can't confirm this, but at least here three Russian losses from that place. 3 destroyed BMPs and abandoned T-80BVM

how many AFVs can RU possibly have left?? 

[womble]

Getting a referendum sorted when something approaching 10% of your population is refugees in other countries would be somewhat tricky.

Appearances suggest that getting agreement to any compromise whatsoever might even be more difficult.

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Guys, I think the nuke thing is interesting but it's a bit distracting.  Especially because we might not be able to talk about it for very long if it should happen.

I think we should try to focus more on what is going on rather than a really remote (at least at this stage) possibility.

Steve

If we can't talk about it after, when will we get to talk about it?  

Point taken though

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Azolstal (Azov Steel) complex in Mariupol getting hit by Russian artillery (probably TOS-1A).  Irony is that Azovstal is owned by pro-Russian oligarch

Also ironical that Rinat Akhmetov was instrumental in keeping Mariupol part of Ukraine in 2014 when he organized the workers of said plant to beat up the Russian "tourists" that were trying to overthrow Ukrainian authority.  He is also rumored to have helped fund the original Azov Battalion.  He was also a big supporter of Yanukovych and rumored to have been exploring a coup against Zelensky in 2021.

There was advantages to keeping his assets in Ukraine at the time because, well, Putin has a habit of taking things when he feels like it.  Remaining in Ukraine meant Putin couldn't get his hands on it.  Akhmetov is not anybody's friend, that's for sure.

Steve

[akd]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ironically Rinat Akhmetov was instrumental in keeping Mariupol part of Ukraine in 2014 when he organized the workers of said plant to beat up the Russian "tourists" that were trying to overthrow Ukrainian authority.  He is also rumored to have helped fund the original Azov Battalion.

Steve

Yes, likely his main interest is just more power in his personal fiefdom (or maintenance of said fiefdom).  What I should have said is that the irony is he has in the past shown pro-Russian leanings.

Edited March 21, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Yes, likely his main interest is just more power in his personal fiefdom (or maintenance of said fiefdom).

Heh... which is why I slipped in an edit of my above post while you were writing this one

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian social network confirmed next high-ranked officer's death

Alexey Sharshavov, lt.colonel, commander of 171st separate air-assault battalion (Feodosia, occupied Crimea) of 7th air-assault division (mountain). Data of the death 7-9th of March

[akd]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Heh... which is why I slipped in an edit of my above post while you were writing this one

Steve

Me too.