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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Speaking of Chechen fighters.., I just read an article about them on Express.co.uk

"The Ukrainian security intelligence officers claimed that the Chechen army has suffered “numerous losses”, and called them "TikTok troops" because of the continued footage they post on social media. The Service added: “The Kadyrovites are now called ‘TikTok troops’ because of their love of stage commercials.

Because during the war they ‘distinguished themselves’ only by video recordings and atrocities against the civilian population.”

Finally, they wrote: “The main task of the Kadyrovites is to ‘clean up’ and kill Russian soldiers fleeing the battlefield."

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17 minutes ago, sburke said:

If we can't talk about it after, when will we get to talk about it?  :D

Point taken though

Well indeed - its a little grim to talk about - but still there is an article ( paywalled ) in the NYT even  today talking about Russians ability and or thinking around the  use  of very small tactical nukes as a possible response to battle field losses .

There is a link off the NYT article to this YT video which makes for even grimmer watching .

 

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12 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Speaking of Chechen fighters.., I just read an article about them on Express.co.uk

"The Ukrainian security intelligence officers claimed that the Chechen army has suffered “numerous losses”, and called them "TikTok troops" because of the continued footage they post on social media. The Service added: “The Kadyrovites are now called ‘TikTok troops’ because of their love of stage commercials.

Because during the war they ‘distinguished themselves’ only by video recordings and atrocities against the civilian population.”

Finally, they wrote: “The main task of the Kadyrovites is to ‘clean up’ and kill Russian soldiers fleeing the battlefield."

Hopefully these are Chechens:

 

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Also just saw this:" Putin assassination: Russian despot's days numbered as Kremlin 'considers removing' him.

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S days in the Kremlin could be numbered as a group of elite officials are conspiring to overthrow the Russian president and possibly even have him killed, Ukrainian intelligence has warned."

I'm sure Putin is very aware that something like this may happen and is probably very well protected, but security can be bribed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1584154/vladimir-putin-assassination-kremlin-ukraine-defence-ministry-alexander-bortnikov-update

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4 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Also just saw this:" Putin assassination: Russian despot's days numbered as Kremlin 'considers removing' him.

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S days in the Kremlin could be numbered as a group of elite officials are conspiring to overthrow the Russian president and possibly even have him killed, Ukrainian intelligence has warned."

I'm sure Putin is very aware that something like this may happen and is probably very well protected, but security can be bribed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1584154/vladimir-putin-assassination-kremlin-ukraine-defence-ministry-alexander-bortnikov-update

I'm a really even keeled, benefit of the doubt, believe in the goodness of people sort of guy.  Yet I have no doubts that there is more than one plot afoot to take out Putin.  I'm sure a super paranoid Putin is even more sure of this.

There's propaganda value in Ukraine broadcasting this information even if it is just rumors vs. solid intel.  Though in this case it's pretty much a given it's going on so propaganda or not it's likely accurate.

Steve

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As Putin starts punishing and purging powerful people, the replacment lackeys and other poweful folks are going to start looking at their odds.  Once the odds of surviving by doing what Putin wants are less than the odds of surviving by attempting a coup, he's in trouble.  So I hope to keep hearing of him purging. 

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1 hour ago, Probus said:

Putin won’t use nukes. He’s too afraid the West would respond in kind. After all, in his mind, that’s what he would do if Russian troops got nuked. He doesn’t want to give NATO an excuse to escalate their involvement. And if he used a nuke, just one, the West wouldn’t stop until Putin was dethroned. It’s simply not worth the risk. 
 

Unfortunately, I think he’ll use chemical weapons first and he’s a lot more likely to do that, but still very unlikely. That would make him look weak to his fan base if the West can prove he did it.
 

Just my opinion of course…

There are many things that can be resorted to before nukes. Cyber against the EU/US is coming next almost certainly. Chemical isn't at all unlikely, General frightfulness, civilian slaughter-by-MRLS have begun but there's far more to come. Conventional strikes at or near the border with Poland, Moldava and Romania. Putin has these options and more. He just mentions the nukes for the same reason he fires hypersonic missiles at chicken shacks...it makes the news and creates the simulacrum of potency. I don't think we are very close to nukes yet and not just because irradiating the new Russian empire would be an idiotic way to create it. 

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good synopsis of today's events in the north, and at the bottom mentions Poles interested in a peacekeeping mission into UKR (this is my favorite idea)

ALERT: this is from a LIBERAL democratic website, so skip if that's outside your zone.  The website founder is an army vet who has had pretty good daily synopsis, similar to here.  Has multiple maps collected to tell the story of intense fighting NW of Kyiv.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/21/2087241/-Ukraine-update-Ukraine-is-on-the-counter-offensive-attacking-Russia-s-entire-NW-Kyiv-front

 

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The problem for Putin is that at some point NATO will determine cyber attacks to have crossed the line and invoke Article 5.  More likely, though, is that NATO will hit back with its own cyber attacks without going that far.  It really depends on how damaging the attacks are.

In the past, and IIRC since the war started, there have been some pretty strongly worded warnings out of NATO that Putin needs to think carefully before doing anything along those lines.

And while on Article 5, a tactical nuke that is downwind of Europe could trigger Article 5.

Steve

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Today I took my annual online Global Trade Training for my company, all employees must take it even if, like me, we don't deal w this stuff.  Half or more is about not trading w restricted/sanctions companies or sending our technology to help make weapons of mass destruction.  How timely.

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Still catching up, but on the off chance it wasn't already watched and discussed, thought I would share a remarkable video from early in this war. Found it while doing research for an article I'm doing for my job. Limerick is mine.

A curious man from Luton
Went to Ukraine to check out the shootin'
In search of a battle
He found not a rattle
And and nothing remotely suitin'!

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/what-happens-when-an-ordinary-man-travels-to-ukraine-to-see-whats-really-going-on-filmsets-video/?fbclid=IwAR02_BClOMjcPPHjArOvVRdRu_T9OO2scLhwEDDBPFQptMMCHNSJT6l5CPY

Regards,

John Kettler

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Found this high res video of Russian fighting positions to be highly surprising, in that instead of firing positions on a trench, here, for the first time I can recall going back the Cold War, if not earlier, we have individual fighting positions directly next to each other in a line, but with no trench at all. Seems to me this would be a nightmare if under fire, there being no way to get from one hole to another without coming up above the ground. The holes look like they may've had pioneer assistance, too.
Mar 19

 
No comments
 
 
Regards,

John Kettler
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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On 3/18/2022 at 3:57 PM, Vet 0369 said:

Well, while playing CMBS AS THE u.S. against a friend playing Russians, I found the Tunguska to be deadly against my ravens and or the drones.

Vet 0369,

Am surprised at this, for unless a visual is somehow obtained, the RCS on the Raven has to be of the order of less than .01 sq m, likely more like .001 As it happens, that .01 is the number for a Tomahawk nose on. This leaves me wondering how the Tunguska is finding your Ravens. Also, there is a key fact regarding the design requirement for the Tunguska, in terms of the target. Prepare to be shocked, for it's that plane you see, a 1950s vintage Hawker Hunter F6, top speed at altitude M 0.96.

600px-Hunter_-_Shuttleworth_Military_Pag

As first designed, Tunguska was a guns only weapon system. The SAM was added later to hit attack helicopters which popped up to shoot ATGMs fromn outside gun range. Given the sum total of these realities, how is it the Tunguska is eating up your microscopic in cross section vs that Hawker Hunter F6 and below radar Vmin RQ-11? Since I'm working from first principles and a fair amount of real world AD system knowledge, yet coming up bust, would love for someone to explain to me how a Tunguska can do this? If we were talking Pantsir-S1, would be more inclined to believe this, because one of the weapons the Pantsir-Sa was required to defeat was the US HARM, a vastly smaller and many times faster target than that ancient British bird above. This is because Pantsir-S1 was designed to protect strategic SAM sites (S-300) against standoff attacks by ARMs, standoff missiles and guided bombs. It's wheeled because Tunguska couldn't keep up with the wheeled and rapidly displacing S-300 system.  The design story of Tunguska and Pantsir-S1 are both on the excellent ausairpower site.

Regards,

John Kettler
 

Edited by John Kettler
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The problem for Putin is that at some point NATO will determine cyber attacks to have crossed the line and invoke Article 5.  More likely, though, is that NATO will hit back with its own cyber attacks without going that far.  It really depends on how damaging the attacks are.

In the past, and IIRC since the war started, there have been some pretty strongly worded warnings out of NATO that Putin needs to think carefully before doing anything along those lines.

And while on Article 5, a tactical nuke that is downwind of Europe could trigger Article 5.

Steve

This also shows how scared Putin is of NATO involvement.  And it's also why all the crazy threats -- like N Korea, "watch out I've got nukes and I'm craaaaaaazy!". 

He certainly has the power to conduct cyber attacks but despite the west's very nasty sanctions he as not struck back.  Except to kidnap an excellent US woman basketball player, which is yet another terrorist move. 

I think he's really worried about escalation.  We are also, but for different reasons.

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On 3/18/2022 at 4:51 PM, BlackMoria said:

Canada's UN Mission twitted a letter from the Russian UN Mission that was sent to all member countries.  Canada's UN Mission decided to troll hard the letter by marking it up and returning to the Russian UN Mission.

 

FU Russia.jpg

FU Russia_1.jpg

FU Russia_2.jpg

Legendary! Wonder how many cases of apoplexy resulted?

Regards,

John Kettler

 

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On 3/18/2022 at 5:14 PM, Kinophile said:

Awesome, yes please, by all means dig your own graves - errrrr I mean dig in.

Got some sunflower seeds?...You'll need those so we can find you in a few months.

EDIT: That would be a great pysops campaign, use drones to drop packets of sunflower seeds before an attack or after a strike.

Put Putin's grinning face on the outside, so it's really nice and clear who's the reason for this ****show.

Kinophile,

You're a sick sick man--which is why we like you!

Regards,

John Kettler

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Rob Lee is continuing to catalog Russian death / burial notices. Bias towards VDV / Spetsnaz, officers / NCOs, two weeks ago or more.  Wonder what’s happening with the dead conscripts / contract enlisted in all the regular formations? Those death notices getting “delayed”?

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85

22nd Spetsnaz Brigade has already made a memorial. Me thinks they should have left more space at the bottom.

image.thumb.jpeg.8058db4cd1b52db5dddac27d62e2697a.jpeg

Edited by akd
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