How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

• When looking at confirmed losses Russia keeps losing units in its rear like artillery, and Ukraine has lost almost none (none in the south).
• The losses are numerically larger on the Russian side still. Even the Ukrainian "bad" days are roughly similar losses on both sides.

I would say these are positive early indicators for Ukraine. I would have expected Ukraine to have significantly higher losses at the start of these offensive operations than the Russians. 

[cesmonkey]

This Russian blogger says the Ukrainians are a threat near Neskuchnoe
https://t.me/s/RVvoenkor/47099
 

Quote

Tough battles and a difficult situation at the junction of the Zaporizhzhya Front and the DPR: Neskuchnoe is lost, the enemy changes its offensive tactics
A difficult situation is developing in the South-Donetsk direction, the enemy is beginning to throw significant forces and undertake more competent maneuvers than head-on assaults.

While this one says it's nothing they need to worry about
https://t.me/yurasumy/9243
 

Quote

And any passage of the enemy between the heights to the settlement. doomed to heavy losses, since the broken column is shot not only by artillery, but also by ATGMs, moreover, from two sides at once. Therefore, this "strike" from a tactical point of view is practically meaningless.

Above are just excerpts as both posts are rather lengthy.

[Der Zeitgeist]

9 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

I remember seeing one and it ended up being questionable, but I'm sure it has happened.  Got a link to any of those?

It's very difficult to search for these because the results get drowned out by the huge majority of Russian war crimes. One would probably have to go through various pro-Russian Telegram channels. What I remember was the questionable case of the shooting you mentioned, then a case where Ukrainians were kneecapping a group of Russian prisoners, plus the one where a group of Russian soldiers was filmed bleeding out on a road with their throats slit.

My initial point wasn't so much about how many of these cases exist, but more how each of them were amplified by Russian social media. So it's quite conceivable that some Russian soldiers truly believe they risk mistreatment or a gruesome death when captured.

[The_MonkeyKing]

AI summary: The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun, focusing on Zaporizhzhia but with pressure across the front. It's too early to draw conclusions. Expectations and objectives are unclear, and Russian defenses shouldn't be underestimated. Ukrainian units are facing challenges due to mobilization and lack of air support. Breaching operations are difficult, and attrition is expected. The battles will likely last for weeks and months. Western support and donations are crucial for Ukraine's success. The situation is uncertain, and patience is needed to see the outcome. This will be a long and challenging summer for Ukraine.

[Pete Wenman]

Tom Coopers thoughts from the ACIG forum 

“Frontlines... Orikhiv sector... Ukrainian reports are indicating a break-through of the first line of defences in the Lobkove area, sometimes around 7-8 June, with an advance on Zherebyanky as a consequence. This in turn should have collapsed the Russian defence line further south-east, and enabled an advance south-west and south-east of Dolynka, all the way to Peremozhne (about 15km in total, on a frontline some 15km wide). With this, Ukrainians should be something like 'half-way through the 2nd line of defence'. South of Orikhiv, Ukrainians should be somewhere between Stepove, Rivne, and Chystopilia, west of Solodka Balka and about 15km outside Tokmak: i.e. through the 2nd line of defence. 

Further east, i.e. south of Hulyaipole: the aim there seems to be to outflank the Russian defences of Polohy on both sides, but so far, the advance remained limited in comparison to that in the Orikhiv area. Essentially, Ukrainians are still busy clearing lanes through the minefields and approaching Robotine: even if they have reached the southern edge of deep minefields protecting the first line of the Russian defences in several directions, they are yet to start manoeuvring freely. 

South, east and south-east of Velyka Novosilka...the western prong of this advance seems to have been checked by the Russians after it reached the hills dominating Staromaiorske. However, yesterday, the eastern - and much belittled - attack drove all the way from Oktyabrska and Novomaiorske to Krasna Polana, in southern direction, while developing in a new, western direction, too: on Staromaiorsk. That in turn forced the surviving Russians to abandon - in panic - their positions in Neskuchne, Storozheve and Blahodatne - and that without a single shot: they fled in south-western direction, into Starmoaiorske. Moreover, if the report on advance to Krasna Polana is truth: that's about 50% of the way to Mariupol. 

(I.e. here we have a similar situation like in the II Nagorny Karabakh War, when Armenians were reporting they're 'breaking Azeri bones', while the Azeris were already deep into their southern flank... but this wasn't reported by any of social-media-mappers, because there were 'no videos'....)

Further east, the Russians were defending well in the area south-west of Vuhledar, but it is possible that the Ukrainian advance further east - via Volodymyrivka to Blahodatne - has meanwhile forced them to withdraw. Here, Ukrainians are meanwhile outside the minefields and manoeuvring freely. What is certain is that there is - or at elast was - a very bitter battle for Blahodatne going on: that's some 5km north of Volnovakha, which is the crucial place in this part of Ukraine (on the highway from Donetsk to Mariupol). On 9 June, the Russians deployed reserves from Donetsk for a counterattack into the eastern flank of this advance (that's what caused the fighting for Blahodatne); however, yesterday, they seem to have changed their decision and withdrew/re-deployed the troops in question further south, into their third line of defence, between Volnovakha and Mariupol. 

Overall, several penetrations of 15-25km, but the Russians are still holding out wherever they can: i.e. the ZSU is still not 'through' the worst of this. Moreover, the VSRF is 'streaming' really a lots of reinforcements into southern Zaporizhzhya. What is also not mentioned (in general) that - no matter how much criticised (foremost by such like me) - the ZSU troops are outmatching the Russians, in training, manoeuvre, firepower, and precision. Thus, every of their attacks is causing massive Russian losses, even if sometimes costly (at least in vehicles) for the ZSU.”
 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Pete Wenman

[The_MonkeyKing]

EDIT: wrong geoloc

Edited June 11, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

gains in "new" direction(my green comment):

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3721293-ukraine-forces-liberate-village-of-blahodatne.html

No. It's wrong geolocation. It's meant Blahodatne on V.Novosilka salient. If it liberation was officially claimed today, that indeed it was liberated at least 2 days ago. Work of 68th jager brigade 

 

[Haiduk]

Captured Russian positions on southern direction

 

[Haiduk]

47th mech,brigade "Magura" gathered chevrones on captured position - due to writings in the notebook, personnel are former convicted. Writing of chevron with a skull in green berete "Nothing personal. We just got paid". Also the black chevron - the ace card symbol is one of many typical signs for convicted

It's enough strange - Russian units of Zaporizhzhia front, especially 58th CAA, hadn't intensive battles these 1,5 years and should keep most of their cadre staffing, so they shouldn't need in Shtorm-Z companies.

Some Russian bloggers idenified the one, who was meant in notebook. Maksim Durban - was sentensed to 14years of jail together with own wife (she got less term of sentence) for drugs.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

The way they handle hand-grenades is really impressive.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1667802346066157570?s=20

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

It's enough strange - Russian units of Zaporizhzhia front, especially 58th CAA, hadn't intensive battles these 1,5 years and should keep most of their cadre staffing, so they shouldn't need in Shtorm-Z companies.

Seems logical Russians put disposable troops on first line of defense, which was bound to be breached at some moment anyway. If they will be found on second and third, it may be telling.

Of interest is the fact they seem to be moving significant forces from left flank along the river to reinforce their lines.

[Markus86]

Different videos of improvised (?) armed drones attacking MBTs. The battlefield really seems to be deadly without anti air cover. Just take a commercial fpv drone, add a RPG warhead and voila. 

On the other hand the videos don't show, if they hit or the amount of damage. 

[Haiduk]

Russian MoD claims UKR maritime kamikadze drones tried to attack medium intelligence ship "Priazovye" of BSF, which maintained security of gas pipelines "Turkish stream" and "Blue stream". Allegedly all drones were destroyed (this ship pr.864, NATO code Vishya, has 2 x 6 AK-306 30 mm guns)

PS. Other Rusiian source claims there were 6 drones, which attaked the ship in 300 km SE from Sevastopol

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[MOS:96B2P]

2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Tom Coopers thoughts from the ACIG forum 

Not sure how he knows all this stuff.  But it is a lot of interesting information if acurate. I may look this guy up and follow his posts. @Haiduk do you have an opinion on this source and his information?

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Not sure how he knows all this stuff.  But it is a lot of interesting information if acurate. I may look this guy up and follow his posts. @Haiduk do you have an opinion on this source and his information?

Now almost all "expert information" has one source - Russian TG bloggers and rare videos, mostly of Russian origins for 7-9 of June. Cooper repeated in own interpretation all messages of RU milibloggers, posted here - nothing more. 

>Ukrainian reports are indicating a break-through of the first line of defences in the Lobkove area

This is fun. Russians told Lobkove was under permanent shelling of small-arms and mortars during several weeks, so the village was in grey zone and only before UKR offensive they deployed a squad there for watching. So it was real "breakthrough". As you could see on the video, Russians after shelling just fled and UKR squad seized the empty village. Though, this wasn't "PR victory", Lobkove now uses for transferring of troops and vehicles to outflank Russians in Pyatykhatky   

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[chris talpas]

Latest drop from Perun:

 

[Billy Ringo]

[Billy Ringo]

Trouble in paradise, at exactly the most inopportune time.

(Sorry for the extra insert above, difficulty editing the post.)

[DesertFox]

Love it!

 

 

[Beleg85]

This will be very interesting moment to test "how much Putin is in Prgozhin" (metaphorically, ofc.). @billbindc

My take is he will comply, albeit with many complains. Girkin already states it is insubordination that should end in military court.

 

[Haiduk]

Captured ATGM Kornet in UKR service

 

[DesertFox]

Strike!

 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

One thing I never understood:

Why do they even use VR-like goggles for the FPV drones? Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have the drone camera view on a smartphone or tablet screen?

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

One thing I never understood:

Why do they even use VR-like goggles for the FPV drones? Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have the drone camera view on a smartphone or tablet screen?

Phone/tablet screens are to small. Awareness and feeling where you are (as a drone) is much better when it's full view. Hence why such an insane precision with them. Furthermore if it's two cameras - that's a 3D image which allows you discern details even better.

[DesertFox]

 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by DesertFox