How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But that only applies to situations where it is not expected to fight to the death, like fighting for a mate or similar.

It definitely is used in fights to the death as a survival strategy for the losing party. They end up being to the death when surrender is not accepted. However, coming up with an idea how this ties in to the fight/flight reflex would require far more knowledge in psychology that I have.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Russian drones are having a field day. Losses must be much higher than the footage we've witnessed. I don't get the complete lack of AA umbrella of UA offensive 

Not sure which part of UAS and self-loitering munitions are really, really hard to counter is being lost here.  No one has invented a “complete AA umbrella” against these systems yet.

Edited June 10, 2023 by The_Capt

[cesmonkey]

Posted a few minutes ago:
https://t.me/vrogov/10217
 

Quote

Vladimir Rogov
The evening on the Zaporizhia Front began with massive artillery preparation by the Nazis.

The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are hitting the positions of our guys.

Along the LBS in the Orekhovsky direction, the enemy is actively using a smokescreen.

This is done, probably to cover the transfer of armored vehicles.

The situation on the positions and along the front line is under control.

And posted 90 minutes ago:
https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7918
 

Quote

On the Zaporozhye front, the enemy began a massive artillery shelling of our positions. The enemy is using a new tactic: vehicles of the Ukrainian chemical defense forces are blowing smoke, possibly trying to mask the advance of their assault columns. Smoke is a capricious phenomenon, it is subject to the wind. Observation and orientation deteriorates when moving. The entire front line and approaches are under our control.

Daytime attempts to advance were not of high intensity, the attackers walked, armored vehicles did not participate.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by cesmonkey

[danfrodo]

53 minutes ago, billbindc said:

They are terrified of surrendering because they want to go home again someday. They have certainly heard horror stories of what may be happening to those returned in prisoner swaps. 

I brought this up the other day.  Why would RU do prisoner swap if they were just gonna imprison or kill them?  Maybe penal battalion type punishment?  THey do that w other RU soldiers.  And maybe that's what RU soldiers are told:  if you surrender you're as good as dead when you return.

[billbindc]

There will be a variety of outcomes depending on who is doing the exchanging, the connections of the exchanged, etc. But some will have come back under a cloud and their fate will have not been kind. Those stories travel.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

 Is propaganda telling them the Ukrainians will shoot them or worse if they surrender? I remember there was a returned volunteer on German TV who said he'd witnessed instances of POWs being executed but that's just anecdotic evidence. 

Not just anecdotal. There were a number of videos showing mistreatment or outright execution of Russian POWs by Ukrainian soldiers. It's nowhere near the amount of crimes we saw from the other side, but there were still a number of documented incidents.

[cesmonkey]

Another telegram post from about 90 minutes ago:

https://t.me/batalyon15/1938

Quote

At this hour, fighting continues in the segments near the settlement of Orekhovo and the settlement of Orekhovo. Pubic. According to our information, the battle began near the settlement. Novodonetsk.

The guys are tired, but they stand. The mood for victory remains. The intensity of hostilities does not subside. Rather it increases.

There are no breaks in the line of contact.

And one from 20 minutes ago:
https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7919
 

Quote

Zaporozhye. The enemy demonstrates an attack to the east of the Kakhovka reservoir. This is the same front line, only to the left of yesterday's main attacks, towards the Kherson region. Now the enemy is preparing artillery, unloading infantry. The places there are crossed, beams, ravines, lowlands and heights. Armored cars, especially highway "Leopards" (62 tons), will be impossible to apply. The entire front line is under our control, the interaction of all forces on the front line is complete.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Harmon Rabb]

When I see tweets like this from Russian officials, my first gut reaction as a Western taxpayer is I want even more goodies sent to the AFU.

But yeah, they really are milking this for all they can as we expected they would.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Kraft]

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

When I see tweets like this from Russian officials my first gut reaction as a Western taxpayer is I want even more goodies sent to the AFU.

Buy yeah, they really are milking this for all they can as we expected they would.

Someone should print my picture collection of dead Russians (thousands) and make an art installation infront of their embassy  

[Haiduk]

R34 heavy bomber drone, further development of exellent R18.  It can carry already five ammunitin pieces, but alas it combat range still 4 km

[Haiduk]

Level of water in Kherson is reduced on 1 meter. How the city looks now

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

First videos emerge of this time Russian columns being hit...

Note how deep in muscovite-held terrain it is, north of Velyka Bylozerka.

 

Also, there are some gossips (partly confimed by Sladkov posted before) that attackers switched to different effective tactics, in whch smoke plays some part.

[Yet]

so.... Why is there a column at all? Moving away from the NPP. 

UA pressure?, not needed because of kachovka?, redirected to urgent needed reinforce elsewhere?, or regular movement? 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Yet

[Beleg85]

27 minutes ago, Yet said:

so.... Why is there a column at all? Moving away from the NPP.

This is just supply vehicles column, and only two were hit in this clip. Interesting that UA recon drone was so deep in their territory.

 

And one kadyrovite less (car belong to Ahmat battalion East)... curious if Ramzan will be so cocky when his fighters start to die en masse on real frontlines:

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[chrisl]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This is just supply vehicles column, and only two were hit in this clip. Interesting that UA recon drone was so deep in their territory.

The resolution sucks, so it's hard to be totally sure, but it looks like at least 4, and maybe 6 or 7 towed guns.  

The down side if you're the guys with the towed guns is that now they know where you are and where you're pointed, so another drone can come and pick off a few more.  Or send a HIMARS your way.

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting that UA recon drone was so deep in their territory.

Fixed wing UAV can fly about 50 km, this is obviously not Mavic. Maybe Furia or Leleka 100. Artillery fired from right bank of Dnipro - Marganets area - it's about 25-30 km to Zapovitne area, where column was hit

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

I wonder why they do that. They have to know their chances of survival are slim. I mean, apparently they are not just fanatics or else they wouldn't try to get away in the first place. So are they even more afraid of being captured? Is propaganda telling them the Ukrainians will shoot them or worse if they surrender? I remember there was a returned volunteer on German TV who said he'd witnessed instances of POWs being executed but that's just anecdotic evidence. So, assuming POWs are treated well, wouldn't it pay off to step up/renew the PR campaign we saw last year?

It may have to do with a lack of information.

We, all forum-members, have at least some knowledge of warfare, it's history and "the way it works". Also we have a decent understanding of modern day technology and weaponry, and probably a little understanding of international law, different rules of engagement and what not. We tend to take that for granted.

But from the beginning of this war it became apparent that a significant number of Russian soldiers came from the least developed parts of Russia. And a lot of those soldiers lived in circumstances that we, as spoiled Westerners, could describe as "archaic", "third world-ish", "primitive" or what have you, so their general knowledge-levels are probably less, or even much less, than ours.

And they joined an Army that isn't very well-known for it consideration for, or information-sharing with, their soldiers. So I suspect that their "situational awareness" is utterly abysmal. They don't know anything, except that maybe a senior soldier told them to stay in a trench and shoot the enemy.

When the Ukrainians attack them, they don't know how big the attacking force is. They haven't the faintest idea where the rest of the frontline runs, how to pull back or where to go, how to be flexible and maybe stabilize the situation by counterattacking. They cannot rely on friendlies to come to support them, they don't have the "band of brothers"-knowledge that your squadmates will help you, and they most certainly cannot trust any NCO's or officers (because they already left.)

So they stay until the very end, not because of exceptional bravery or believing in "The Cause", but because they haven't a clue what is going on.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Seedorf81
If I ever post without a spelling error, I'll probably get a heart-attack from the shock.

[Haiduk]

Russian positions of 70th MRR of 42 MRD near Robotyne after artillery fire

 

[Haiduk]

GMLRS or 155 air burst?

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Lancet is shot down with mass rifle fire, 68th jager brigade

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/yurasumy/9241
 

Quote

But southwest of Velikaya Novoselka (4) , the enemy, according to data from the field, popped much stronger. Plus, there is a lot of armor here.

https://t.me/romanov_92/39188

Quote

06/10/2023
Vasilyevsky district, Zaporozhye region, Russia.

From the field they report:

Pubic - under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .

06/07/2023 in n.p. there was only one branch of the Russian Armed Forces. The enemy entered with forces up to a company from three directions and ours retreated.

Until January n.p. was in the gray zone, then it was taken by BARS. Sam n.p. is at the bottom. For the last two months, the enemy has been "nightmare" n.p. from a height with small arms.

Pyatihitaki - under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

Enemy attacks on settlements they fight back, but the situation is tense - neighboring landings are occupied by the enemy. Our artillery is constantly working on the enemy.

The enemy does not take into account the losses, two hundredths are not evacuated, sometimes even three hundredths are not taken away.

 

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Fixed wing UAV can fly about 50 km, this is obviously not Mavic. Maybe Furia or Leleka 100. Artillery fired from right bank of Dnipro - Marganets area - it's about 25-30 km to Zapovitne area, where column was hit

One colonel here claimed it to be probably FlyEye due to characteristic work of camera he recognized, and there were some reports that Ukraine received/buyed some "upgraded" version of this stuff with unknown capabilities that company and experts did not wanted to share publically. But may be just our local patriot, difficult to say. The most important thing is that muscovites were hit.

https://twitter.com/Maciej_Korowaj/status/1667641635503472649

He also claims: Confirmed information shows that it is a convoy of the 291st Artillery Brigade of the 22nd Corps (formerly "Dniepr" Group), which is urgently to reinforce the "South" Group in the direction of Zaporozhye. SZU are isolating their combat zone. If so, RUS lacks operational reserves in the direction.

Didn't provide sources, though.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

 

 

[sburke]

Zelenskyy says 'counteroffensive, defensive actions' taking place in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that counteroffensive and defensive actions are underway against Russian forces, asserting that his top commanders are in a “positive” mindset as their troops engaged in intense fighting along the front line.

The Ukrainian leader, at a Kyiv news conference alongside Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, responded to a question about Russian President Vladimir Putin's comment a day earlier that Ukraine's counteroffensive had started — and Ukrainian forces were taking “significant losses.”

Zelenskyy said that “counteroffensive, defensive actions are taking place in Ukraine. I will not speak about which stage or phase they are in.”

Top Ukrainian authorities have stopped short of announcing a full-blown counteroffensive was underway, though some Western analysts have said fiercer fighting and reported use of reserve troops suggests it was.

“I am in touch with our commanders of different directions every day,” he added, citing the names of five of Ukraine’s top military leaders. “Everyone is positive. Pass this on to Putin.”

...

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Friday that the epicenter of the fighting has been in the east, particularly in the Donetsk region, and cited “heavy battles” in Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka.

Valerii Shershen, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces in Zaporizhzhia, told Radio Liberty that they were searching for weaknesses in Russia’s defense in that region, to the west.

Ukraine's nuclear energy agency Energoatom said the last operating reactor at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, had been placed in “cold shutdown” mode. That's a process in which all control rods are inserted into the reactor core to stop the nuclear fission reaction and generation of heat and pressure.

The plant's other five reactors already were in cold shutdown amid concerns about the plant's exposure to the fighting.

Energoatom said in a statement late Friday that there was “no direct threat” to the Zaporizhzhia plant because of the breach of the Kakhovka dam further down the Dnieper River, which has forced thousands of people to flee flooding and also sharply reduced water levels in a reservoir used to help cool the facility.

Water levels in the Kakhovka reservoir, which feed the Zaporizhzhia plant, remained stable on Saturday, Energoatom said.