How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

Phone/tablet screens are to small. Awareness and feeling where you are (as a drone) is much better when it's full view. Hence why such an insane precision with them. Furthermore if it's two cameras - that's a 3D image which allows you discern details even better.

Aha, so it's true 3D, that makes sense, thanks!

[Kinophile]

27 minutes ago, kraze said:

Phone/tablet screens are to small. Awareness and feeling where you are (as a drone) is much better when it's full view. Hence why such an insane precision with them. Furthermore if it's two cameras - that's a 3D image which allows you discern details even better.

Exactly.

Think of when you watch a football/soccer/ozzie rules/rugby, and how tricky it can be to determine if a balls position when up in the air. Camera is a single viewpoint, so no parallax vision.

[DesertFox]

Final proof of biological weapons use in ukraine

 

 

[DesertFox]

Barbecue time. Location yet unspecified. Somewhere between Dnepr and Molochna river north of Melitopol.

 

 

[sburke]

Russian army conscripts increasingly disobeying orders: offenders sent to assault Ukrainian positions (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Cases of disobedience, sabotage and desertion in the Russian army  have become more frequent among conscripts, with offenders being sent to assault companies.

Source: Report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook

Quote: "Due to the absence of a legal provision on the deadline for military service in the Russian army, the lack of significant achievements on the battlefield and the spread of panic about future prospects, cases of disobedience, sabotage, non-statutory relations and desertion have become more frequent among Russian conscripts.

To address these problems, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has issued a decision ordering commanders of formations and military units to identify and assign such individuals to assault companies for further use in so-called ‘cannon fodder assaults’."

Background: About 40 Russian servicemen deserted their positions in Svatove in Luhansk Oblast on 2 June.

 

somehow this made me think of this

Kim Jong Un orders North Koreans to stop killing themselves after number of suicides skyrocketed (yahoo.com)

 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

This will be very interesting moment to test "how much Putin is in Prgozhin" (metaphorically, ofc.). @billbindc

My take is he will comply, albeit with many complains. Girkin already states it is insubordination that should end in military court.

 

I think Prigozhin will comply but it certainly suggests that control from the top is....attenuated. Russia is in the middle of a knife fight that may determine whether Putin's gigantic bet will be lost completely. The absolutely last thing that they need is a squabble for control between Wagner and the RuAF. Yet it's happening. Slippage. Bad slippage.

[sburke]

US Congress introduces resolution demanding provision of ATACMS to Ukraine (yahoo.com)

On Friday, members of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs representing the Democratic and Republican parties announced a resolution calling on President Joe Biden's administration to hand over ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda.

According to Republican Michael McCall, the co-author of the Resolution, and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, if the United States does not provide Ukraine with all the necessary weapons, it will help prolong the war.

"The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is directly related to the military assistance provided by the United States and our allies. Therefore, it is extremely disappointing that the administration is delaying billions of dollars of military funding, which could be immediately transferred to Ukraine and in turn help its Armed Forces significantly change the situation on the battlefield," he said.

In the document, the decisions of the governments of the UK and France to transfer Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG long-range missiles, respectively, both with a range of 250 kilometres, are mentioned.

"The United States and its allies jointly own thousands of ATACMS missiles that could be transferred to Ukraine," the draft resolution said, stating that Russia's current dominance in long-range weapons "forces Ukrainian forces to fight at a much greater disadvantage".

If passed, the House of Representatives will call on the United States to "immediately transfer to Ukraine a sufficient number of ATACMS to accelerate Ukraine's victory in Russia's unprovoked aggressive war, while maintaining the combat readiness of the US military".

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

US Congress introduces resolution demanding provision of ATACMS to Ukraine (yahoo.com)

On Friday, members of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs representing the Democratic and Republican parties announced a resolution calling on President Joe Biden's administration to hand over ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda.

According to Republican Michael McCall, the co-author of the Resolution, and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, if the United States does not provide Ukraine with all the necessary weapons, it will help prolong the war.

"The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is directly related to the military assistance provided by the United States and our allies. Therefore, it is extremely disappointing that the administration is delaying billions of dollars of military funding, which could be immediately transferred to Ukraine and in turn help its Armed Forces significantly change the situation on the battlefield," he said.

In the document, the decisions of the governments of the UK and France to transfer Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG long-range missiles, respectively, both with a range of 250 kilometres, are mentioned.

"The United States and its allies jointly own thousands of ATACMS missiles that could be transferred to Ukraine," the draft resolution said, stating that Russia's current dominance in long-range weapons "forces Ukrainian forces to fight at a much greater disadvantage".

If passed, the House of Representatives will call on the United States to "immediately transfer to Ukraine a sufficient number of ATACMS to accelerate Ukraine's victory in Russia's unprovoked aggressive war, while maintaining the combat readiness of the US military".

Lets hope for the best. Crossing my fingers.

[Haiduk]

UKR serviceman in lower tweet about troubles with mine removing. Unclear he told about usual situation or particularly about current breakthrough

Our mine clearing - it's pizda. One hasn't communication with a driver, other just rejects to drive [on mission], the third didn't arrive at all, the forth has launch fail of his "Gorynych" [UR-77]. How it's sicking this planning

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Offshoot]

An interesting BBC interview with a Russian helicopter pilot who refused to fight and later fled to Latvia. He gives "behind the scenes" insights into Russian losses, airfield saboteurs, corruption and Russian morale and opinions on the war - https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/06/09/russian-pilot-deserted-and-revealed-true-losses-of-russian-aviation/

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Not sure how he knows all this stuff.  But it is a lot of interesting information if acurate. I may look this guy up and follow his posts. @Haiduk do you have an opinion on this source and his information?

Cooper is to be taken with a grain of salt on a good day, a bag full on a bad day.  As Haiduk says, Cooper has no special sources of information.  He is generally good at stitching information together into a more coherent narrative, but his analysis can vary between fine and way off the mark.  I avoid paying attention to his analysis for that reason.  I also think his logic filters fail to function properly at times.

For example:

Quote

Moreover, if the report on advance to Krasna Polana is truth: that's about 50% of the way to Mariupol. 

Holy crow, what's he going on about?  That's 50km distant from the frontline.  He seems to think there's some way that Ukraine would be able to travel this far in a couple of days, which is beyond unlikely.  And even if they had, the Russian blogosphere would be in Chernobyl style meltdown.  I also suspect Ukraine would lift some of its info blackout.

Yet Cooper posts this possibility as if it could possibly be true.  That's not confidence inspiring.

He probably misread some Russian report.  Either a small village with a similar name was taken or put under threat, a partisan attack, a deep strike by Storm Shadow, or just a full on boo-boo.  Whatever the case is, It's pretty hard to believe Ukraine is in that village and therefore making a statement as if it is entirely possible is just bad reporting.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

US Congress introduces resolution demanding provision of ATACMS to Ukraine (yahoo.com)

On Friday, members of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs representing the Democratic and Republican parties announced a resolution calling on President Joe Biden's administration to hand over ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda.

According to Republican Michael McCall, the co-author of the Resolution, and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, if the United States does not provide Ukraine with all the necessary weapons, it will help prolong the war.

"The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is directly related to the military assistance provided by the United States and our allies. Therefore, it is extremely disappointing that the administration is delaying billions of dollars of military funding, which could be immediately transferred to Ukraine and in turn help its Armed Forces significantly change the situation on the battlefield," he said.

In the document, the decisions of the governments of the UK and France to transfer Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG long-range missiles, respectively, both with a range of 250 kilometres, are mentioned.

"The United States and its allies jointly own thousands of ATACMS missiles that could be transferred to Ukraine," the draft resolution said, stating that Russia's current dominance in long-range weapons "forces Ukrainian forces to fight at a much greater disadvantage".

If passed, the House of Representatives will call on the United States to "immediately transfer to Ukraine a sufficient number of ATACMS to accelerate Ukraine's victory in Russia's unprovoked aggressive war, while maintaining the combat readiness of the US military".

Giving more sophisticated, complex, expensive weapons that are also expensive to sustain, without raising the total budget allocated to support Ukraine is a bad idea in my opinion. There are not a lot of taboos to break left either, Ukraine already has the Storm Shadow. 

I am quite confident the Pentagon has been supplying Ukraine with the best amount and kind of equipment for the budget politicians have allocated.

TLDR: more budjet please!

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Lets hope for the best. Crossing my fingers.

This has been in the works for at least a week already.  It started with 10 bipartisan Reps, which means if McCarthy allows it to go to the floor for a vote (not a sure thing due to internal GOP turmoil) it will most likely pass.  I think the Senate would also be likely to pass it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Giving more sophisticated, complex, expensive weapons that are also expensive to sustain, without raising the total budget allocated to support Ukraine is a bad idea in my opinion. There are not a lot of taboos to break left either, Ukraine already has the Storm Shadow. 

I am quite confident the Pentagon has been supplying Ukraine with the best amount and kind of equipment for the budget politicians have allocated.

TLDR: more budjet please!

It is fired from existing GMLRS platforms using, mostly, controls that Ukraine is already familiar with.  A specific module needed to fire ATACAMS was removed prior to handing the platforms over to them, but it's plug-and-play.  I bet Ukraine could be launching these within a couple of days once all the pieces are in place.

Steve

[DesertFox]

Also another strike on the rail lines on crimea, west of the Kerch bridge. If both strikes, 1) south of Melitopol and 2) this in the Kirovskyi region are true, then the orcs at crimea are going into a logistical world of pain.

 

 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Also another strike on the rail lines on crimea, west of the Kerch bridge. If both strikes, 1) south of Melitopol and 2) this in the Kirovskyi region are true, then the orcs at crimea are going into a logistical world of pain.

 

Diversion in Crimea is not significant, delay can be about 4 hours. Damaged locomotive it's good. Near Melitopol it's more serious, but maximum one day ot delay - this is a bridge through smalll river. Russian has powerful railway troops, which can quickly repair such damages.  

[dan/california]

 

57 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Final proof of biological weapons use in ukraine

 

 

Can we add the hedge hog as a specific count at the Hague?

28 minutes ago, sburke said:

US Congress introduces resolution demanding provision of ATACMS to Ukraine (yahoo.com)

On Friday, members of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs representing the Democratic and Republican parties announced a resolution calling on President Joe Biden's administration to hand over ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda.

According to Republican Michael McCall, the co-author of the Resolution, and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, if the United States does not provide Ukraine with all the necessary weapons, it will help prolong the war.

"The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is directly related to the military assistance provided by the United States and our allies. Therefore, it is extremely disappointing that the administration is delaying billions of dollars of military funding, which could be immediately transferred to Ukraine and in turn help its Armed Forces significantly change the situation on the battlefield," he said.

In the document, the decisions of the governments of the UK and France to transfer Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG long-range missiles, respectively, both with a range of 250 kilometres, are mentioned.

"The United States and its allies jointly own thousands of ATACMS missiles that could be transferred to Ukraine," the draft resolution said, stating that Russia's current dominance in long-range weapons "forces Ukrainian forces to fight at a much greater disadvantage".

If passed, the House of Representatives will call on the United States to "immediately transfer to Ukraine a sufficient number of ATACMS to accelerate Ukraine's victory in Russia's unprovoked aggressive war, while maintaining the combat readiness of the US military".

It takes less than ten minutes to go to your congresspersons website and type a paragraph in Support of ATAcMS to Ukraine. All U.S. readers, just do it!

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Giving more sophisticated, complex, expensive weapons that are also expensive to sustain, without raising the total budget allocated to support Ukraine is a bad idea in my opinion. There are not a lot of taboos to break left either, Ukraine already has the Storm Shadow. 

I am quite confident the Pentagon has been supplying Ukraine with the best amount and kind of equipment for the budget politicians have allocated.

TLDR: more budjet please!

Steve already answered, this the THE simplest thing to give Ukraine logistically. 

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is fired from existing GMLRS platforms using, mostly, controls that Ukraine is already familiar with.  A specific module needed to fire ATACAMS was removed prior to handing the platforms over to them, but it's plug-and-play.  I bet Ukraine could be launching these within a couple of days once all the pieces are in place.

Steve

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Diversion in Crimea is not significant, delay can be about 4 hours. Damaged locomotive it's good. Near Melitopol it's more serious, but maximum one day ot delay - this is a bridge through smalll river. Russian has powerful railway troops, which can quickly repair such damages.  

Historically it works by plowing up stuff every day. We shall see.

We are still to really see the Ukrainian partisan potential materialize in support of military operations

[cesmonkey]

The Russian bloggers report there is significant rain along some parts of the Zaporizhzhia front and may last a few days.
Here is one such post:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13171
 

Quote

Sources of the @wargonzo project report that the intensity of hostilities has noticeably decreased on the Orekhov-Rabotino line.

Most likely this is due to bad weather conditions - it is raining, which greatly complicates aerial reconnaissance.
The enemy is apparently bringing up reserves and regrouping for the next offensive.

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Diversion in Crimea is not significant, delay can be about 4 hours. Damaged locomotive it's good. Near Melitopol it's more serious, but maximum one day ot delay - this is a bridge through smalll river. Russian has powerful railway troops, which can quickly repair such damages.  

A well timed GMLRS or two might damage those railway troops morning.

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Steve already answered, this the THE simplest thing to give Ukraine logistically. 

  

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is fired from existing GMLRS platforms using, mostly, controls that Ukraine is already familiar with.  A specific module needed to fire ATACAMS was removed prior to handing the platforms over to them, but it's plug-and-play.  I bet Ukraine could be launching these within a couple of days once all the pieces are in place.

Steve

 

Maybe a long-range(<500km) strike capasity is not the most cost-efficient way of using the current money available to the Pentagon? That is what I mean. Possibly better to put it to GMLRS and GLSDB? Or antiair, mechanized capability, training ext.

With more budget sure, ATACMS will become cost-effective at some threshold. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Battlefront.com]

Here's my take on what Ukraine is currently doing...

A number of key sectors have been identified for eventual full on attacks.  For now they are alternatively punching them and withdrawing, then coming back and punching in a tactically slightly different spot, then rotating back to where they hit before, withdrawing, and repeating the process until they sense they've created enough weakness in an area to push in hard to stay.  All the while they are degrading the lines with artillery fire and smashing up the immediate rear areas.

This is an EXCELLENT strategy if the Russians defenses are as thin and poorly motivated as we think they are.  Each time Ukraine hits something and withdraws, Russia is basically obligated to reinforce/retake the ground lost.  Those replacements are coming from SOMEWHERE.  At a minimum this consumes Russia's immediate ready reserves so that when Ukraine decides to push hard Russia doesn't have anything else to commit except for forces already committed.  This means forcing them to withdrawn and consolidate.

Strategically, Russia is moving forces around to shore up the 2nd line of defenses.  This is where Ukraine's deep strikes are really paying off, because if it moves it can be spotted and if spotted then killed.  Russia has no choice but to move stuff around now.  The strike we saw on the artillery unit is a great example, but the videos of the base going BOOM deep behind the lines is another example.  I bet Ukraine had it under HUMINT observation and someone phoned in that a large number of reserves stopped in for a visit on the way to the front.

 

I am going to be bold enough to say that the counter offensive is going as well as I thought it would be.  Putin's announcement that everybody currently in Russian uniform needs to sign a full MOD contract (for how long?  I'm wondering if it is more than 1 year!) is a clear sign that Russia already feels obligated to chew up its reserves options.  It likely won't be long before we hear about another mobilization.  It's inevitable.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

  

 

Maybe a long-range(<500km) strike capasity is not the most cost-efficient way of using the current money available to the Pentagon? That is what I mean. Possibly better to put it to GMLRS and GLSDB? Or antiair, mechanized capability, training ext.

With more budget sure, ATACMS will become cost-effective at some threshold. 

ATACMS enormously increase the pressure on the Russians because it forces them to operate under threat so much further behind their lines. And a hundred of them, even at a million dollars a piece is not much more than a rounding error in what this war is costing. Additional trainig load is near zero, additional logistics load is near zero. This is some sort of strange hang up in the U.S. National Security Counsel, there simply is no other reason.

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

The Russian bloggers report there is significant rain along some parts of the Zaporizhzhia front and may last a few days.
Here is one such post:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13171
 

 

No reason to trust Russian bloggers on the weather report.. There's no significant rain forecast around Orikhiv in the coming days. A few thunder showers.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/orikhiv/326320/daily-weather-forecast/326320

 

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, dan/california said:

ATACMS enormously increase the pressure on the Russians because it forces them to operate under threat so much further behind their lines. And a hundred of them, even at a million dollars a piece is not much more than a rounding error in what this war is costing. Additional trainig load is near zero, additional logistics load is near zero. This is some sort of strange hang up in the U.S. National Security Counsel, there simply is no other reason.

I am giving them the benefit of the doubt.

We have seen huge qualitative increase in aid from the USA with a budget that was allocated when IFVs were seen of the table.