How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Due to videos of prisoners and other info, 291st MRR, 70th MRR and 71th MRR of 42nd MRD of 58th CAA are involved on "skirmish line" in Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

In the area of V.Novosilka salient Russian bloggers meant 336th naval infantry brifade, DPR "Kaskad" special purpose unit and some other, but I forgot

In Blahodatne UKR troops captured 6 soldiers - 2 Russians and 4 DPR.

Thanks for that.  I wrote my previous statement poorly.  What I meant is that the expendable units, when available, are going to be stuck out in front of the more experienced troops.  However, it does not seem that there are a lot of these poor quality units in the south.  Instead, they seem to be concentrated in the frontline running north from Donetsk.  And even then, I am not sure how much are still functioning there either.

So, it does make sense that the majority of the frontline positions in the south are held by regular Russian units. They simply don't have enough cannon fodder to cover such a long front.

I read a report yesterday that Kaskad withdrew from contact with Ukrainian forces.  I don't know if that means it has totally withdrawn from combat or if it just retreated to new positions.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

visual of where main defensive line is vs the recently taken villages. 

 

 

So now we might see quite a fast retreat to the main line of defense I this are

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know if that means it has totally withdrawn from combat or if it just retreated to new positions.

"Kaskad" is very capable unit - combined unit of DPR Interanl Troops and Special Police. Many of them are veterans of "Vostok" brigade and fought since 2104-2015. So, they are not the same unit, which will run away from battlefield of reject to fight. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[pintere]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Yep, very good!

 

 

Not anymore for Makarivka, apparently

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

"Kaskad" is very capable unit - combined unit of DPR Interanl Troops and Special Police. Many of them are veterans of "Vostok" brigade and fought since 2104-2015. So, they are not the same unit, which will run away from battlefield of reject to fight. 

Oh, I agree.  I was wondering if they might be redployed elsewhere.  The report was very vague about their movement and, of course, could be 100% inaccurate.

I fully expect that Russia will have to do the same redeployment behavior it has done in other intense situations.  As Ukraine shifts focus from here to there, Russia will need to pull better units from less active areas and insert them into the more active ones. The last thing Russia can afford is to have a good unit sitting around in a less active area while in trouble elsewhere.  This is very disruptive, but with so few units and even fewer that are very capable I don't see Russia having much of a choice. 

Steve

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, pintere said:

Not anymore for Makarivka, apparently

 

 

 

Mk1 eyeball map reading that entire  bulge the Ukrainians are gnawing into the side of is about to go away. Haiduk do you have insight on what roads the Russians were using for their last ten or twenty kilometers of logistics in this area?

[Battlefront.com]

We all have to keep in mind that the amount of territory that Ukraine has liberated is, so far, small.  However, as I said a few times, whatever territory Russia loses will likely remain in Ukraine's hands (maybe small tactical shifts, of course).  Russia's offensive capabilities are gone.

Kherson serves as a good example of how things might go.  Going from memory...

Initially Ukraine made very slow and steady gains, especially in the north.  Then there was a breakthrough and a large Russian withdrawal.  Unfortunately, these were good units (Spetsnaz and VDV) and they withdrew without major problems.  Ukraine then regained a pretty good sized chunk of territory very quickly.  Then the advance stopped again.  Small and consistent advancements were made along the entire Kherson front, but nothing dramatic happened after this point.  Then the Russians abandoned all of their positions on the right bank all at once, indicating they believed their forces were unable to continue fighting successfully for much longer.

I expect we'll see something similar.  Ukraine will probably roll up some of the gray areas pretty quickly and maybe even effect a significant sized withdrawal.  But then things are going to get very tough when the Russian's primary line of defense is hit.  If things go well, Ukraine will concentrate on a couple of areas for a breakthrough and, if successful, we might see something dramatic if only on a local scale.

The big question is... can Russia keep this up at this scale without another mobilization?  I hope not, because the best case for Ukraine is Russia's front falling apart before a mobilization order is implemented. That way Russia will be forced to throw untrained men into the fight which works to Ukraine's benefits long term.  Especially if this causes unrest within Russia.

Steve

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, pintere said:

Not anymore for Makarivka, apparently

 

 

 

Yep. UA is going south along the Mokri Yaly river pretty quick. I like it

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know how long Russia thought they could hold Ukraine off with their most forward positions, but it seems only a couple of days is not very long.  The next line, however, is likely to be more difficult and time consuming.  But it really depends on what they have for defending forces.

It seems that BARS, Storm-Z, and other "expendable" units were disproportionally in the forward zone.  That is in keeping with both current and traditional Russian doctrine.  So we should expect the more experienced and capable units are still intact.  However, it is unknown what condition these units are in.  Russia has prioritized creating new units at the expense of restaffing existing ones.  As this has been a "de-emphasized" sector for most of the last year, it's unclear how capable the regular units are.  Certainly better on the defensive than offensive, but there is a major problem lurking for the Russians.

Standard Soviet/Russian doctrine is to immediately and violently retake any positions lost to enemy attacks.  This means Russian units will need to switch from defensive to offensive without much notice.  Units that have been static for most of a year will suddenly need find themselves needing to maneuver with all that goes along with it.  These are the things that Russia has repeatedly shown it SUCKS at the most.  Communications, supporting fires, combined arms, etc. are all piss poor almost as a rule.

The best thing that can happen for Ukraine, I think, is for Russian troops to get up out of their hideyholes and try retaking positions.  If things go as they have elsewhere, these attacks will largely fail and result in major losses for the Russian attackers.  They will then return to their defensive locations weakened.  Thanks to Russian stupidity they might then be ordered to go out and attack again, right away.

This could be the way Ukraine shortens the static warfare phase... let the Russians come out into the open and slaughter them.  And if they don't come out, then proceed with the slow reductions until progress obligates the Russians to withdraw.

Steve

Yup.

I made some short walk over several Russian milforums 2 weeks ago, and judging by what people there (some with military experience and behind the front) expected was protracted attritional battle developing exactly a la Kursk 2.0. Nobody seemed to believe there in any significant RU counterattacks, but very bloody grind of successive positions. They send themselves books, detailed plans of fortified "hedgehog" positions from 1943 etc. They were pefectly capable to understand that moving any reinforcements may bring destruction by superior Ukrainian precision weapons, so first line was expected to fall soner or later anyway. It's tempo and level of Ukrainian casualties that matter here.

It may be because they are so obsessed with their historical reenactment of "trial by blood, in which mighty Russian soldier endures", but  for now it seems to be actual approach to this battle by MoD as well. On other side, roughly the same people expected Kherson to turn into another Stalingrad... They seem to be surprised a little by might of Ukrainian artillery barrage, though.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It may be because they are so obsessed with their historical reenactment of "trial by blood, in which mighty Russian soldier endures", but  for now it seems to be actual approach to this battle by MoD as well. On other side, roughly the same people expected Kherson to turn into another Stalingrad... They seem to be surprised a little by might of Ukrainian artillery barrage, though.

This is a very good point.

The bloggers back then thought Russia could hold out indefinitely or, at a minimum, wreck the Ukrainians in the process.  Neither happened, though for sure Ukraine suffered some heavy casualties.

They continued on with this line of thinking as we came to this counter offensive, repeatedly saying that all of Ukraine's experienced soldiers are dead and that they are going to throw mobiks into battle just like the Russians do.  Except for the fact that Ukraine's new units are outfitted by the best equipment in the war so far and they have had 3-5 months of training by professional militaries of the West.  Hardly the same thing

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Breaking news... Russian bloggers acknowledge counter attacks didn't work and now Ukraine has control over Blahodatne:

 

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Barbecue time. Location yet unspecified. Somewhere between Dnepr and Molochna river north of Melitopol.

 

 

Addendum: Now geolocated: Olhynka, Donetsk Oblast

 

 

[Seedorf81]

And another one..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65873014

Does Russia still think these stunts will help them in any way?

 

[Huba]

Glimpse of things to happen next year:

 

[DesertFox]

POW, taken prisoner near Neskuchne. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Haiduk do you have insight on what roads the Russians were using for their last ten or twenty kilometers of logistics in this area?

It's obvious seen on the map - main supply road is T0518, heading from SE from Nikolske, area of Mariupol.  I suppose, their local logistic hub should be in Staromlynivka settlement, where T0518 crosses with rocade secondary road, supplying enemy's right flank toward Kremenchyk and Novodonetske. Enemy left flank hasn't any normal roads, except section of Staromlynivka - Hyliaypole, which they control, but it passes much more southern, so couple of strongpoints in treeplants and villages on that side of salient can be supplied only by field roads  

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

Failure to launch.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[DesertFox]

Just use them. What should happen anyways...?

 

 

[Haiduk]

Captured Russians or DPR in Neskuchne

And here is where located the dyke on Mokri Yaly river, which Russians blown up today - Klyuchove village. This is next village south from Staromlynivka. Very interesting, looks like Russians already prepare to abandon the salient

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And here is where located the dyke on Mokri Yaly river, which Russians blown up today - Klyuchove village. This is next village south from Staromlynivka. Very interesting, looks like Russians already prepare to abandon the salient

That is about 2 Klicks north of their so called defense line.

 

 

[FancyCat]

Reminder, the UN and ICRC have been refused access to the left bank, and reports state that Russia is preventing Ukrainians who have not accepted Russian passports the ability to evacuate. I hope they blow that bridge and all those collaborators have to ferry out of Crimea. 

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And here is where located the dyke on Mokri Yaly river, which Russians blown up today - Klyuchove village. This is next village south from Staromlynivka. Very interesting, looks like Russians already prepare to abandon the salient

Blowing that dam surely makes the water obstacle smaller upstream with time. Also, watering canals are going to dry up. That "river" also runs pretty west-east, a good obstacle. Might make things easier for Ukrainians later on.

But sort term, sure. And that is how the Russians seem to think. And also brake everything they cannot have...

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Beleg85]

30 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Just use them. What should happen anyways...?

I would read it as PsyOps thrown in crucial phase, may have some truth in it but likely on smaller scale.

Rare iteration of tactical markings:

 

[DesertFox]

Something is in the air at Tokmak