How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Maybe a long-range(<500km) strike capasity is not the most cost-efficient way of using the current money available to the Pentagon? That is what I mean. Possibly better to put it to GMLRS and GLSDB? Or antiair, mechanized capability, training ext.

With more budget sure, ATACMS will become cost-effective at some threshold. 

ATACMS can have an immediate impact on the battle within a very short period of time (a week?).  I don't think anything can be done faster than that.

Obviously making sure Ukraine doesn't run out of the stuff it already has is critically important, but it needs to be an "also" situation instead of an "one or the other".

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russians reportedly have blown up a dyke on small river Mokri Yaly, flowing through V.Novosilka salient from south to north. I can't find where is a dyke on the map, but if Russians did this, their deeds are enough bad

[Battlefront.com]

We'll be seeing a lot more of these in the coming days... Ukrainians flying their flag over newly liberated administrative buildings.  This one is from the 68th Jäger Brigade in the village of Blagodatne, which is southeast of Vuhledar.  A place I didn't even know Ukraine was actively attacking until Monkey King and Haiduk's post two pages ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/146sgjz/liberation_of_the_village_of_blagodatne_in/

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I am giving them the benefit of the doubt.

We have seen huge qualitative increase in aid from the USA with a budget that was allocated when IFVs were seen of the table.

EVERYTHING has been six months later than it should have been because someone with real influence thinks Putin can be persuaded to make a rational deal to withdraw to 2/24 lines and try to move back towards some semblance of pre war relations. Even SCHOLZ has finally figured out this isn't happening. We need to finally realize that the only two limitations on what to give Ukraine should be what the factories can produce, and what the trains can haul. The Russians simply need to be smashed so badly the don't think about doing this again for ~fifty years. 

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's my take on what Ukraine is currently doing...

A number of key sectors have been identified for eventual full on attacks.  For now they are alternatively punching them and withdrawing, then coming back and punching in a tactically slightly different spot, then rotating back to where they hit before, withdrawing, and repeating the process until they sense they've created enough weakness in an area to push in hard to stay.  All the while they are degrading the lines with artillery fire and smashing up the immediate rear areas.

This is an EXCELLENT strategy if the Russians defenses are as thin and poorly motivated as we think they are.  Each time Ukraine hits something and withdraws, Russia is basically obligated to reinforce/retake the ground lost.  Those replacements are coming from SOMEWHERE.  At a minimum this consumes Russia's immediate ready reserves so that when Ukraine decides to push hard Russia doesn't have anything else to commit except for forces already committed.  This means forcing them to withdrawn and consolidate.

Strategically, Russia is moving forces around to shore up the 2nd line of defenses.  This is where Ukraine's deep strikes are really paying off, because if it moves it can be spotted and if spotted then killed.  Russia has no choice but to move stuff around now.  The strike we saw on the artillery unit is a great example, but the videos of the base going BOOM deep behind the lines is another example.  I bet Ukraine had it under HUMINT observation and someone phoned in that a large number of reserves stopped in for a visit on the way to the front.

 

I am going to be bold enough to say that the counter offensive is going as well as I thought it would be.  Putin's announcement that everybody currently in Russian uniform needs to sign a full MOD contract (for how long?  I'm wondering if it is more than 1 year!) is a clear sign that Russia already feels obligated to chew up its reserves options.  It likely won't be long before we hear about another mobilization.  It's inevitable.

Steve

Yeah, lots of unknowns.

If this first line that has now been breached in some places was indeed just "the skirmish line" of the Russians Ukrainians are in for a hard long fight.

On the other hand, if Russia has a "forward defense" the operations have been wildly successful. 

The Russians don't really have a lot of space to back up to, just like in Herson the water is at their backs. Ukraine observation and strike capacity might encompass the entire Russian rear only after a couple of tens of kilometers. This would support more of a forward posture.

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

EVERYTHING has been six months later than it should have been because someone with real influence thinks Putin can be persuaded to make a rational deal to withdraw to 2/24 lines and try to move back towards some semblance of pre war relations. Even SCHOLZ has finally figured out this isn't happening. We need to finally realize that the only two limitations on what to give Ukraine should be what the factories can produce, and what the trains can haul. The Russians simply need to be smashed so badly the don't think about doing this again for ~fifty years. 

I agree. I just think this equation starts by giving way more money to Pentagon for this. 

Might be even counterproductive to advance qualitative increase before increasing the money allocation. People are left feeling "now Ukraine has what they need" when US is giving them every type of system. While in reality, the situation is the same without more money.

[cesmonkey]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

No reason to trust Russian bloggers on the weather report.. There's no significant rain forecast around Orikhiv in the coming days. A few thunder showers.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/orikhiv/326320/daily-weather-forecast/326320

 

 

 

Perhaps accuweather isn't the best source for Ukraine:
https://www.facebook.com/UkrHMC
https://www.meteo.gov.ua/

[Battlefront.com]

Another liberation video.  This is from Neskuchne, which is northwest of Vuhledar.  Note the still image shows the correct village, but the wrong administrative building.  That is the one in Blagodatne.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

I found a truly-depressing Russian telegram page with the names and snapshots of individual KIA Ukrainian soldiers.
View at your own risk:
https://t.me/s/zachistka_ua/

[Haiduk]

This UKR serviceman probably is CM player % )

Combat Mission in reality

F...k, f...k, of course

I hope people are intact, the "hard" is a s...t

By the way, a participant of this episode claims losses were 2 KIA and several WIA, other troops successfully withdrew. 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian MoD claims UKR maritime kamikadze drones tried to attack medium intelligence ship "Priazovye" of BSF, which maintained security of gas pipelines "Turkish stream" and "Blue stream". Allegedly all drones were destroyed (this ship pr.864, NATO code Vishya, has 2 x 6 AK-306 30 mm guns)

PS. Other Rusiian source claims there were 6 drones, which attaked the ship in 300 km SE from Sevastopol

Related to your post.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yeah, lots of unknowns.

If this first line that has now been breached in some places was indeed just "the skirmish line" of the Russians Ukrainians are in for a hard long fight.

On the other hand, if Russia has a "forward defense" the operations have been wildly successful. 

The Russians don't really have a lot of space to back up to, just like in Herson the water is at their backs. Ukraine observation and strike capacity might encompass the entire Russian rear only after a couple of tens of kilometers. This would support more of a forward posture.

Depending on a particular location, UA has to push around 30km into initial RU lines to put the coast road and towns inside HIMARS range. Achieving or preventing this is the main objective for both sides at the moment IMO, the mapped RU defence lines seem to be positioned with this in mind. 

[DesertFox]

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Diversion in Crimea is not significant, delay can be about 4 hours. Damaged locomotive it's good. Near Melitopol it's more serious, but maximum one day ot delay - this is a bridge through smalll river. Russian has powerful railway troops, which can quickly repair such damages.  

If they harass the line permanently then the desired effect on logistics can be achieved. Other option is to blow the Kerch bridge at at least two different locations and take rail supply from Kuban out of service for good.

[danfrodo]

15 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

It’s funny seeing the Nazis call other people “Nazis”.

If you think that's funny, you would've found Rush Limbaugh hilarious

On the war:  Lots of video of UKR troops having to dig out suicidal idiots out of holes, sometimes w losses.  It's like Iwo Jima or Okinawa.  At least these idiots won't be around in the next line of defense.  But dangerous, slow, and tedious work for UKR. 

On the plus side, UKR troops are often seen re-arming with spoils from overrun trenches, meaning they can afford to spray tons of bullets without worrying about running out. 

I hope partisans and missiles can keep cutting the rail lines.  And like someone mentioned, it would be great to target the repair crews -- we know their location once a line is cut.

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Depending on a particular location, UA has to push around 30km into initial RU lines to put the coast road and towns inside HIMARS range. Achieving or preventing this is the main objective for both sides at the moment IMO, the mapped RU defence lines seem to be positioned with this in mind. 

I think capturing the east-west rail line is probably one of the main objectives of this first phase.  THe line that runs through Tokmak.  Gonna be hard to sustain the RU defense for the whole campaign season w/o that line.  Plus what Huba said -- the entire RU logistical backfield could be in HIMARS range soon.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yeah, lots of unknowns.

If this first line that has now been breached in some places was indeed just "the skirmish line" of the Russians Ukrainians are in for a hard long fight.

On the other hand, if Russia has a "forward defense" the operations have been wildly successful. 

The Russians don't really have a lot of space to back up to, just like in Herson the water is at their backs. Ukraine observation and strike capacity might encompass the entire Russian rear only after a couple of tens of kilometers. This would support more of a forward posture.

I don't know how long Russia thought they could hold Ukraine off with their most forward positions, but it seems only a couple of days is not very long.  The next line, however, is likely to be more difficult and time consuming.  But it really depends on what they have for defending forces.

It seems that BARS, Storm-Z, and other "expendable" units were disproportionally in the forward zone.  That is in keeping with both current and traditional Russian doctrine.  So we should expect the more experienced and capable units are still intact.  However, it is unknown what condition these units are in.  Russia has prioritized creating new units at the expense of restaffing existing ones.  As this has been a "de-emphasized" sector for most of the last year, it's unclear how capable the regular units are.  Certainly better on the defensive than offensive, but there is a major problem lurking for the Russians.

Standard Soviet/Russian doctrine is to immediately and violently retake any positions lost to enemy attacks.  This means Russian units will need to switch from defensive to offensive without much notice.  Units that have been static for most of a year will suddenly need find themselves needing to maneuver with all that goes along with it.  These are the things that Russia has repeatedly shown it SUCKS at the most.  Communications, supporting fires, combined arms, etc. are all piss poor almost as a rule.

The best thing that can happen for Ukraine, I think, is for Russian troops to get up out of their hideyholes and try retaking positions.  If things go as they have elsewhere, these attacks will largely fail and result in major losses for the Russian attackers.  They will then return to their defensive locations weakened.  Thanks to Russian stupidity they might then be ordered to go out and attack again, right away.

This could be the way Ukraine shortens the static warfare phase... let the Russians come out into the open and slaughter them.  And if they don't come out, then proceed with the slow reductions until progress obligates the Russians to withdraw.

Steve

[Haiduk]

I posted yesterday this video, but here is more compact and full version of this "cavalry raid", including approaching and aftermath. Also became knowingly geolocation and attacking unit. This is 59th mot.inf. brigade, place between Pervomaiske and Staromykhailivka, but closer to latter (southern flank of Avdiivka axis)

- UKR troops rapidly approach from the side of trench flank on two combat HMMWVs and one truck-HMMWV, carring full squad.

- combat HMMWV heavy supress the enemy, until assault group dismount from three vehicles

- Russians withdraw under heavy fire, but three of them shot dead, while crawling

- truck-HMMWV delivers ammunition and probably AT means for troops, which now will hold this position 

Russian milblogger says position was taken because probably personnel didn't spot approaching of vehicles in time and confused after being shelled  

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Yep, very good!

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Guess who is once again sounding rather sour on how things are going?

Steve

[sburke]

I can only imagine the look on Xi’s face on hearing that. 

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Guess who is once again sounding rather sour on how things are going?

Steve

That would make all of Russia merely a Chinese province with an unfortunate dominant religion. They might want to enquire with Uighur about the fine print in that contract. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It seems that BARS, Storm-Z, and other "expendable" units were disproportionally in the forward zone.  That is in keeping with both current and traditional Russian doctrine.  So we should expect the more experienced and capable units are still intact.

Due to videos of prisoners and other info, 291st MRR, 70th MRR and 71th MRR of 42nd MRD of 58th CAA are involved on "skirmish line" in Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

In the area of V.Novosilka salient Russian bloggers meant 336th naval infantry brifade, DPR "Kaskad" special purpose unit and some other, but I forgot

In Blahodatne UKR troops captured 6 soldiers - 2 Russians and 4 DPR.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

This was found in the tablet of Russian officer. TO&E of US Division-86 tank and motorized infantry battalions and the same units of Western Germany. Generals always prepare itself to wars of past %)

 

 

[FancyCat]

visual of where main defensive line is vs the recently taken villages.