How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

I had guessed some months earlier, RuAF will play a bigger role this time in trying to bog down UA offensive. I think particulalry helicopters are quite effective in a more fluid environment where the mobile short ranged AA assets are lagging behind the advanced exposed elements. Apart from the tractors, Ka52s and Mi-28s seem to have destroyed quite a few enemy armored vehicles so far with no own casualties reported. Contrast this with the early days of the war where they were falling like flies even hit from ATGMS when flying deep in UA lines...

And that brings us to the question. When was the last time an offensive succeeded without air support, if not air superiority? Napoleonic wars? (Not counting the summer UA one, as it was just chasing a rattled retreating and regrouping army, that was only prepared for a short offensive ) Maybe we'll have to wait for the F16s to really see UA making big gains to the South. 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by panzermartin

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Gonna be interesting to see what the faithful do when UKR breaks through.

There are faithful on both sides, so this cuts both ways.

I find people who tell me the offensive has failed already because Ukraine has taken some losses and there has been no break through on day 1 about as bewildering as people from the "Ukrainians are tactical genius uber soldiers, now invincible with NATO wonder weapons, Russia already lost, lol" meme show, who now tell people how stupid they are because such things take time and sacrifice.

Deliberately exaggerating, no offence meant to anyone here.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Butschi

[Der Zeitgeist]

9 minutes ago, Butschi said:

There are faithful on both sides, so this cuts both ways.

I find people who tell me the offensive has failed already because Ukraine has taken some losses and there has been no break through on day 1 about as bewildering as people from the "Ukrainians are tactical genius uber soldiers, now invincible with NATO wonder weapons, Russia already lost, lol" meme show, who now tell people how stupid they are because such things take time and sacrifice.

Deliberately exaggerating, no offence meant to anyone here.

+1

To be honest, I'm getting really tired of these braindead "NAFO" shills on social media who are making any realistic discussion about the war increasingly impossible without blocking dozens of people first. 

[The_Capt]

43 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

And that brings us to the question. When was the last time an offensive succeeded without air support, if not air superiority? Napoleonic wars?

There have been a number where AirPower was left out as a factor either by absence, parity or denial - Iran/Iraq War, Former Yugoslavia Civil War, Fall of Afghanistan/Kabul 2021, off the top of the head.  Why it was left out varies, example:

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AUPress/Books/B_0025_BERGQUIST_AIRPOWER_IRANIRAQ.pdf

We tend to think of airpower as sacrosanct but in reality it is not.  What is weird about this war is that we have both Denial of the conventional manned platforms, and Parity in the low altitude unmanned systems.  This has led to a condition where airpower is highly active; however it is not deterministic of outcomes in the land battle.  At least not yet.

 

[poesel]

So the UA attacked where we (and probably the Russians) thought they would most likely attack. Attacking where the defenders know you are going to attack seems to me very uncharacteristically for the UAF.

How long will it take for the Russians to really think this is IT, and begin to shift their resources? And where will the real attack be?

Or is this some kind of double think game where the Russian keep thinking that this is a feint, not shift their resources, and then actually get defeated in the place they knew the attack would come?

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

+1

To be honest, I'm getting really tired of these braindead "NAFO" shills on social media who are making any realistic discussion about the war increasingly impossible without blocking dozens of people first. 

So at the beginning of this we talked a lot about Macro masking - how high level analysis missed the growing bow wave of counter-factual little details as the war unfolded. This led to wrong conclusions and deductions that took some analysts months to get over.

The meme social media phenomenon were are seeing now is going the other way - Micro masking aka confirmation bias.  Every streamed engagement is confirmation of what we want to happen, not what is actually happening.  Here I tend to focus on results and broader trends with a healthy dose of context.  We are maybe just getting into the UA offensive and the actual operational effects are unclear.  We will know once they are because we will start seeing them on the ground and broader battle spaces. Until then propaganda amplification is going to happen on both sides.

This would be why I do not really observe the progress of this war other than here and ISW. The noise leaks through the walls here too but we do try and maintain a semblance of sanity.  We definitely want Ukraine to succeed but if we are seeing these same actions in three months with no real progress, we are going to have to admit the UA is spent and this war is going to take a different trajectory to conclusion. No amount of meming is going to change the facts.  If we see major success and signs of RA collapse then we will know the other way.

We spent a lot of time crystal balling, now is time to simply try and figure out what is actually happening.

[Offshoot]

54 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

+1

To be honest, I'm getting really tired of these braindead "NAFO" shills on social media who are making any realistic discussion about the war increasingly impossible without blocking dozens of people first. 

Any organisation like NAFO is going to come with a lot of filler, but it's a small price to pay given how much they have contributed in real terms to Ukraine's war effort, most recently with boats to help evacuate people from Kherson. Contributions that help the Ukrainians far more than the vast majority of realistic discussions on social media ever will.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Offshoot

[DesertFox]

First evidence of Orc units, ahem, moving to grounds more favorable for defense...

 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by DesertFox

[Der Zeitgeist]

This (second video) looks like a KA-52 hit on a Bradley. Note that the vehicle fires an ATGM just before it is hit.

 

[Centurian52]

10 hours ago, Kinophile said:

So,  Day 2 of the Offensive is passing.

I believe it's more like day 5 or 6 of the offensive. I think the offensive started around either the 4th or the 5th. But there was no announcement and there's an information delay, which is why it only feels like day 2 or 3 of the offensive.

[DesertFox]

Now also geoconfirmed. So we have a 3 day information delay here. I don't think that delay is the exception, it is the norm.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by DesertFox

[Astrophel]

52 minutes ago, poesel said:

So the UA attacked where we (and probably the Russians) thought they would most likely attack. Attacking where the defenders know you are going to attack seems to me very uncharacteristically for the UAF.

How long will it take for the Russians to really think this is IT, and begin to shift their resources? And where will the real attack be?

Or is this some kind of double think game where the Russian keep thinking that this is a feint, not shift their resources, and then actually get defeated in the place they knew the attack would come?

A potential surprise attack across the river is now ruled out for a few weeks, although I imagine attacking around Bakhmat is an unexpected turn.  They must also be wondering what might happen up North.  Much depends on what is happening with the attacks we are learning about.  If the russians crack the breakthrough will be reinforced.  If the russians hold, Ukraine will press elsewhere until a crack appears.  It feels like russia is in a bit of a panic.

[chuckdyke]

Now we know it is true. The evidence is overwhelming.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

42 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Any organisation like NAFO is going to come with a lot of filler, but it's a small price to pay given how much they have contributed in real terms to Ukraine's war effort, most recently with boats to help evacuate people from Kherson. Contributions that help the Ukrainians far more than the vast majority of realistic discussions on social media ever will.

Between helping raise the spirits of Pro-Ukrainian supporters during the most dark times on the European continent since World War Two, with some truly hilarious memes like "You Pronounced This Nonsense Not Me".  in addition to helping save countless lives in the AFU by crowdfunding much needed kit for their use.

Those NAFO fellas are alright with me.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

44 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This (second video) looks like a KA-52 hit on a Bradley. Note that the vehicle fires an ATGM just before it is hit.

 

Napkin math says the missile was launched over >10km away. Not much to do than take the hit while in contested airspace and on the offensive in that terrain.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Napkin math says the missile was launched over >10km away. Not much to do than take the hit while in contested airspace and on the offensive in that terrain.

Depending on where the helicopters are based, maybe Ukraine can get some hits in there. They probably don't have too many of these upgraded KA-52s.

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

When was the last time an offensive succeeded without air support, if not air superiority?

The Germans never really got air superiority during the Battle of France. Air parity perhaps, but not air superiority. And the line was able to swing dramatically back and forth for the first year of the Korean war despite UN air superiority.

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Napoleonic wars?

There was a whole century of warfare between the Napoleonic Wars and the combat debut of aircraft. You're hurting the Franco-Prussian war's feelings.

[DesertFox]

Allegedely captured near Tokmak. Oblast or town? Well, time will tell.

 

 

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

So the UA attacked where we (and probably the Russians) thought they would most likely attack. Attacking where the defenders know you are going to attack seems to me very uncharacteristically for the UAF.

How long will it take for the Russians to really think this is IT, and begin to shift their resources? And where will the real attack be?

Or is this some kind of double think game where the Russian keep thinking that this is a feint, not shift their resources, and then actually get defeated in the place they knew the attack would come?

You can't always baffle the enemy's expectations. Often the reason they expect you to do something is that it is the only sensible thing for you to do. Should you do something which is not sensible just to defeat the enemy's expectations? I think we are seeing the real attack right now.

[DesertFox]

 

Damaged Leo 2A4 evacuated

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Beleg85]

Short clip reportedly from Lobkove, note IR strobe on his helmet. Nothing interesting, but first shots from actual infantry fights during this offensive. Many OSInters here claim there is almost total media blackout, most sources on the fronts have switched off phones completelly.

Also, article from CSIS summarizing some Russian defence works:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance

Edited June 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh that is awesome!  She is not some unknown blond running on camera with a placard saying the war is wrong, this is a woman who is a kindred spirit of Josef Göbbels himself.  She is a central, high visibility regime propagandist.

The interesting thing to ask right now is what happened behind the scenes that preceded this?  It is VERY hard to imagine that she just decided to do this on her own without concern for the consequences.  I wouldn't go so far as to ask "who is paying her?" as Alekhin did, but I do wonder "did Simonyan get a new boss now?".  It seems to me the answer might very well be she did and we can be sure it isn't the CIA.

Steve

Don't mistake what Simonyan is doing. She is as plugged in as it is possible to be with Putin's circle and clearly that circle has decided that with the offensive that's starting and the resources Russia has to stop it a status quo result would be a pretty good outcome for Russia. Her job is to make that outcome seem reasonable in the domestic Russian propaganda space. Thus, the trial balloon.

Edited June 9, 2023 by billbindc

[Beleg85]

Clearer picture of Ukrainian armour that met the minefield and/or artillery...from ZOKA channel, they just upoladed detailed drone video. Note these are the same vehicles we saw before.

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Don't mistake what Simonyan is doing. She is as plugged in as it is possible to be with Putin's circle and clearly that circle has decided that the offensive that's starting and the resources Russia has to stop it a status quo result would be a pretty good outcome for Russia. Her job is to make that outcome seem reasonable in the domestic Russian propaganda space. Thus, the trial balloon.

This. However, worth to note there are disputes as to how close chief propagandists of regime are to Putin in fact. Simonyan likes to bragg about any meet with tsar, but it is unlikely she is in close cooperation with him. Or rather HIM.

Also from some time we see this spin from various propagandists, so they may be already past trial baloons and openly "planting" thoughts about need to negotiate. Western hardware is actually very comfortable excuse here.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[riptides]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Allegedely captured near Tokmak. Oblast or town? Well, time will tell.

Oblast.