How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Given the situation in Venezuela (its oil infrastructure remains, in effect, crippled thanks to a lack of western and domestic investment), and the US's long term failure to solve the Iran situation, the only two major sources which could cover the oil gap would surely be either North America (US & Canada) or the Saudis. IDK how much surplus unused productions the Saudis are currently sitting on, if it would be enough to get Europe over the short term bump in prices. But IMO the Saudis would have a lot to gain by opening up the floodgates and keeping global prices relatively low. If not prices will rise. As I recall the biggest impediment to North American production is its locked up in shale deposits which are expensive to explore and establish, most oil companies wont do it unless oil is over a certain price per bbl. If the Saudis cant, then global prices will rise to the point where North American producers can turn a profit and stabilize the market. The only alternatives for the EU would either be to back down on a big oil sanction, or turn to another unsavory regime (say, Syria) for an easement. The EU has before been very skeptical of US sanctions on Iran, with the collapse of the JCPOA I could see some horse trading behind the scenes for the EU, "Sanctions on Russian oil or Iranian. Your choice." I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but I bet that Iranian oil could pretty much replace Russian in Europe at not much different a cost. 

Regarding Russian strategy, I tend to agree with @CHEqTRO and others who say that Putin is now paying a MAJOR cost for just occupying two republics who were, in effect, already his. At the minimum I dont see how he can avoid pushing forward to securing their aspirational borders. Even then that would be a major price to pay for a cost that seems pretty heavy. Were there any rumblings that the breakaway republics might negotiate with Kiev or abandon Russia? If all this had happened in the course of a few weeks I think the calculus would be different, but now the US has had months to organize and denounce Putin. I dont think a limited invasion makes the US look like warmongers or weak, rather it would make Putin look like he backed down under western pressure. And I wonder if Ukraine is going to be so willing to retreat from its long established defenses to let the Russians have more territory. A war of positions would, IMO, be much more beneficial to them especially if the hammer of troops on the other borders never comes for the Anvil of the breakaway republics. Better than to fight for every hamlet and trench, where Ukrainian troops already know the positions and the ranges, then open up a war of movement with a bigger enemy. All thats to say I think the stage is set for a much bigger rumble coming up. Putin needs to make this into a win, the US needs to prove to the world this isn't Suez, and needs to prove to China that it will face the same punishment in a Taiwan crisis. 

Meanwhile the people on the streets of Kiev are the ones who suffer. 

The nordstream 2 issue is about gas, not sure if Iran has that on offer in quantities. But others like the emirates and USA do. There are also still reserves in Europe, although for example the Dutch reserves are a bit of a hot cake due to earthquakes caused by extraction. 

Indeed one can question what Russia gains economically from this affair. Both as a country and among oligarchy 'stakeholders'. 

[DMS]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

All other time it was crazy manipulative and conspiracy flow about Ukrainin history

It's worth noting that Putin's rhetoric is radically anti-communist, just like rhetoric of Ukrainian nationalists. They are competing who suffers more from evilous totalitarian Soviet Union heritage. 

[Erwin]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

the US needs to prove to the world this isn't Suez, and needs to prove to China that it will face the same punishment in a Taiwan crisis

Yes, we need to make sure we don't take our eyes off the Taiwan situation - a much more critical and important item re the effect on world trade as China attempts to take over the entire S. China Sea.

[Haiduk]

Zelensky signed a decree about reservists mobilization. He should have done this a week ago. We don't have too much time. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Probus]

Agree, agree, agree, agree…. Wow! Dare I say we are all on pretty much the same page.
 

If NATO was this united it would scare the heck out of Putin. 

[Haiduk]

Result of today's shelling of thermoelectric power plant in Shchastia town. Three transformers with 40 tons of oil each are burning. Only for today the town and the plant got 140 shells. LNR medias claim Ukrainains destroy own power plant themselves before withdrawal.

[Lethaface]

If Ukraine is has no rights to exist as a 'nation state', what about Belarus? will that also be part of Russia, while they'll give back Kalinigrad to Germany?

 

[chuckdyke]

The situation is a little like Belgium. Some Flemish want to unify with the Netherlands. 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

If Ukraine is has no rights to exist as a 'nation state', what about Belarus? will that also be part of Russia, while they'll give back Kalinigrad to Germany?

 

Indeed. And don't forget the Russian minorities in the Baltic countries. Heck, Putin can even claim London since half of the Russian population lives there.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

The situation is a little like Belgium. Some Flemish want to unify with the Netherlands. 

Flemish is a nation. But there are no such nations like "donbasians" or "crimeans". They are just Ukrainians, Russians, Greeks etc, which have even not always Russian, but often Soviet self-identification. All, who wanted to be a part of Russia, indeed thought they would go back to "glory days" of USSR. Russian Empire and USSR policy in heavy industrialized regions was like a melting pot, where migrants had been losing own national roots from years to years, from generation to generation. Especially this policy of "sovietization" intensified in Brezhyev's times, when was claimed about "new commonality forming - Soviet nation". Features of Soviet mentality are Russian-based culture with some national features allowed by ideology, Russian language, Marxism-Leninism and the faith in communism instead a religion, and sacral enemy - world capitalism and imperialism in the face of NATO, USA etc. To fight a sacral enemy Soviet people educated in the spirit of "internationalism" - be ready to fight in any place of the Earth for happiness of working people.  Russia just modernized some ot theese features - "Russian world" conception, "Great Victory celebration like a neoreligious cult" etc. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

At the end of the day, it is the superpower of the day which decides the destiny of nations. Each territory here is bigger than the Benelux and has its own language. Now we put sanctions on Russia. In our case the pot is calling the kettle black. I live in Whadjuk territory. 

[Haiduk]

Russia gathered in the Black Sea about 45 ships and submarines, part of them were moved here from other fleets. Also in the Mediterranian sea now concentrated strongest since USSR times group of ships - 17, including two missile cruisers and 7 other missile carriers, including at least two submarines

Edited February 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russia gathered in the Black Sea about 45 ships and submarines, part of them were moved here from other fleets. Also in the Mediterranian sea now concentrated strongest since USSR times group of ships - 17, including two missile cruisers and 7 other missile carriers, including at least two submarines

I am still waiting for @dbsapp to show up here and tell us it is all "fake news", at this point I am actually hoping he is right...

[Haiduk]

Russian ambassy in Kyiv lowered the flag on own building and departed to Russia. UKR MFA strongly recommened to all Ukrainian citizens to leave Russia among nearest 48 hours. 

Ukrainan troops last night got "red alert" readiness. Several recon groups of enemy under artillery fire tried to infiltreate on Ukrainian-controlled territory on Donetsk direction, but were engaged and withdrew. Looks like first probes before atatck. Also the enemy first time since 2015 used Grad MLRS, for the last night and morning 120 rockets were launched. In previous years they rarely used single shots with Grad-P. Ukrainain artillery and heavy mortars mostly keep silence. Most of the enemy assets, which firing on our positions located in residential areas or too close to them - looks like command prohibited the answering because doesn't want to give for Russia propaganda additional food, that's enough their clumsy work video-fakes for now to see who is who. Though, periodically, if there is allow a situation our troops fire back mostly with mortars.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[DMS]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

"internationalism" - be ready to fight in any place of the Earth for happiness of working people

Internationalism is not that. Internationalism is opposite to nationalism. It is a belief that humans of all races and nations are equal and have common interests. 

[Haiduk]

Just now, DMS said:

Internationalism is opposite to nationalism.

In theory maybe yes. But in real... Which kind of "nationalism" opposed Soviet "internationalist-warriors" in Afganistan? In Mozambique? In many other countries? Under a mask of "internationalism" USSR supported communists and leftists regimes. Of course, the West did the same under a mask "we fight with communism and bring democracy". Nationalism will be exist always, as a natural protection reaction of any long time existed communality, which developed own culture, language, lifestyle, mentality and system of relations. So, "internationalism" is just leftists cosmopolitism. Both conceptions are equial in own harmfulness 

[IMHO]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am still waiting for @dbsapp to show up here and tell us it is all "fake news", at this point I am actually hoping he is right...

What for? It's just pointless blah-blah-blah. 17 Russian ships in Med, including tenders and tugs - and they should have some, - would either be useless in case of further confrontation with Ukraine or just as good as dead should NATO steps in. No more than irrelevant propaganda.

Edited February 23, 2022 by IMHO

[IMHO]

49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Nationalism will be exist always, as a natural protection reaction of any long time existed communality, which developed own culture, language, lifestyle, mentality and system of relations. So, "internationalism" is just leftists cosmopolitism.

Sounds like Mein Kampf, does it not?

Edited February 23, 2022 by IMHO

[Haiduk]

New warning of US intelligence - Russia can invade during next 24-48 hours. Kharkiv is more probable direction of attack, except Donbas.

Russian SIGINT plane today invaded for short-time in Ukranian airspace.  

OSINT community InformNapalm from own sources in Donetsk claims DNR/LNR forces received an order to keep full radio silence in next hours and turn off all radio emmision sources. Probably, Russian EW stations will scan the Ukrainian-held terrain to find radio stations and concentration of cell phones emmision. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[DMS]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Which kind of "nationalism" opposed Soviet "internationalist-warriors" in Afganistan? In Mozambique?

International military help is only one particular example of internationalism, as it was understood by Soviet leaders. They helped African colonies to liberate themselves. (Though they pursued more pragmatic goals also obviously)  Helped Afganistan to fight with local religious radicals, to build modern society. During Russian revolution internationalists from Germany, Hungary, China and other countries helped to overthrow bourgeoisie, Soviet help to foreign workers in Spain and other countries was "giving back". But internationalism was much more than that, it was ideology that affected education, laws, government system... Now that evil Soviet legacy is successfully destroyed in Ukraine and Russia. 

But it's time to stop side discussions and focus on events, so I stop here. Don't want this thread to be locked. 

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, IMHO said:

What for? It's just pointless blah-blah-blah. 17 Russian ships in Med, including tenders and tugs - and they should have some, - would be either useless in case of further confrontation with Ukraine or just as good as dead should NATO steps in. Just irrelevant propaganda.

Of course, I must humbly withdraw my concern.  You are clearly an expert in maritime warfare, which war college do you teach at?

[IMHO]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

It is a belief that humans of all races and nations are equal and have common interests. 

You waste your time. Haiduk just does not believe in equality. He believes in his birthright to cleanse land of populace that not sufficiently loyal to his ideas.

[Haiduk]

At 18:00 Russia closed crossing points on own part of border with Kharkiv oblast and reportedly crossing points  in Crimea. Locals reported four pontoons moved to Sivash lake. Probably this a part of maneuvers, which are condicting to this time, but...

[Aragorn2002]

God, I missed the cold war! 

[womble]

1 hour ago, IMHO said:

You waste your time. Haiduk just does not believe in equality. He believes in his birthright to cleanse land of populace that not sufficiently loyal to his ideas.

Ooo look. A sockpuppet.