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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, DMS said:

But it's time to stop side discussions and focus on events, so I stop here. Don't want this thread to be locked. 

You are a wise person. Let's all keep this in mind, as I see some people in the beginning stages of taking this thread South very quickly. For the most part, this thread was behaving itself. But in the last couple of hours it's started to fall apart. I think it'd be a good idea if we straightened this out before it ends up getting locked down.

(DMS, I'm not saying that you've said anything wrong. I'm just using your quote because it's a good idea) 

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While there are lingering questions to what if anything was promised to Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion east after the collapse of the USSR, the west should not be surprised at what’s going on. NATO expansion east was bound to cause reaction by Russia and Ukraine’s geographical location and terrain makes it critical in the eyes of Russia.

The timing of all this is no coincidence. Putin knows his main adversary the US is politically divided. He has elements as well as key political figures who are sympathetic to his cause. Now is a good a time as any to move before this advantage slips away.

Putin may have a trump card to play to counter the economic sanctions. For the past few years Russia has been buying and stockpiling physical gold. With inflation running wild in the west due to out of control monetary policy stretching back to 2009 the price of gold has been holding steady and recently catching a bid.

Like drugs, controlling sales of physical gold is hard to control, regardless of economic sanctions and controls in place. There will always be a buyer and in a day and age where fiat currencies are coming under question due to mis-management, metals become more desirable to possess.

Then there is the question of US Federal Reserve policy. Inflation is running hot and to try and control it the Fed will have to raise rates. Problem is with the US deficit so high each basis point increase in rates will cause hundreds of billion in addition cost to the interest on debt already accrued. There are other potential perils in rate policy, but the bottom line is raising the US defense budget to meet growing threats may become problematical.

Then there is China. In the past the West in particular the US has been adept at playing China and Russia against one another. That day has passed. The action of the US over the past few years has made it difficult if not impossible to play China and Russia off against one another. Now China and Russia view the US as the main adversary and are working together to bring a slow and prolonged end to US dominance.

I have no idea hot the situation in the Ukraine will get, but I can see bad times all around.

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Round 1 has to go to Putin I hate to say. I feel like we are in the calm before the storm. Russia is just doing pre-invasion SIGINT and OPINT. Slowly and methodically setting up Ukraine for an efficient dismembering invasion. 
 

Round 2 will go to Putin also if all we have are sanctions. I think the West needs to figure out a way to put some teeth in a response or you are just appeasing a bully. Some way to disrupt Russia’s plans. I can’t think of anything short of a military response. 
 

Can the west pull off a no fly zone using only stealth aircraft and drones? This would be a really good time for the USA to have an unmanned stealth fighter with long range Air-to-Air capability. I wonder if a black project already exists?

Edited by Probus
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Kremlin puppets Pushylin (DNR) and Pasechnik (LNR) officially appealed to Putin for military aid in "repelling of Ukrainian aggression". Several hours before Pushylin claimed Ukranian troops must withdrew from "DNR territory", but he wants that would be in peaceful way. "Leader" of LNR Pasechnik told the same two days before 

Edited by Haiduk
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7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Kremlin puppets Pushylin (DNR) and Pasechnik (LNR) officially appealed to Putin for military aid in "repelling of Ukrainian aggression". Several hours before Pushylin claimed Ukranian troops must withdrew from "DNR territory", but he wants that would be in peaceful way. "Leader" of LNR Pasechnik told the same two days before 

Yeah, looking at all the information is coming out, It seems that either tonight or tomorrow the Russians will start the invasion.

I wish you and your people the best and good luck. I wish our western leaders had been more decisive in order to stop the conflict or at least had helped more the Ukranian military. Europe will pay dearly for allowing this disaster.

Godspeed.

Слава Україні! Героям слава!

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Like the reply above, Putin just ordered military operation inside the Ukraine ground, which is effectively the declaration of the war. And all breaking news says full scale artillery barrage just begun. 

I've been enjoyed CMBS for long time, but never imagined I would see this would happen in real world. Too sad and too bad we are seeing this right now. 

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