How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Russian BMP-3 and T-72B3 in Snihurivka, Mykolaiv oblast. This is settlement in 53 km to the east from Mykolaiv and 45 km north to Kherson on the road Kherson - Kryvyi Rih

 

 

Somewhere in Mykolaiv oblast. Judging on clear sky looks like todays video - shelled and abandoned Russian ammunition supply trucks

 

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Sgt Joch]

The reason why the EU is so dependent on Russian natural gas and has not made a serious effort to change that is based on a bunch of factors, none of which is easily solved:

1. EU has been increasing its use of natural gas for years since it is considered a "cleaner energy" compared to coal of which the EU has plentiful supplies. Obviously switching back to coal fired plants is a non starter for environmental reasons.

2. Natural Gas is used mostly in industrial production/electricity generation. Residential heating accounts for only a small part of use so just switching off Russian Gas imports would have huge economic impacts;

3. Even if the decision was made to switch, there is no readily available alternative supply. The only other source would be Liquified Natural Gas ("LNG"), but that raises a whole bunch of other issues:

3.1 LNG has to be transported by ships, so you need specialized LNG carriers. You also need specialized LNG terminals both at the export port and the import port in Europe. All of these take a long time to build and a long lead time;

3.2 The EU does not have enough LNG terminals to handle all the LNG that would be required. Last data I saw showed that capacity was at 40% of potential demand. The EU has been planning to add LNG terminals, but you run into the issue that all projects are opposed by environmental groups, i.e. "not in my backyard", so all are stalled at the planning stage;

3.3 even if the port capacity issue is solved, the question is where would the gas come from? The only potential suppliers are USA and Qatar and all of their LNG exports are already accounted for in long term contracts, mostly to Asia where LNG is sold at premium prices. Asia has also been building lots of new LNG import terminals since demand there is taking off as well;

3.4 one way to partially solve the issue would be for the USA to increase natural gas production from shale and build additional LNG export terminals on the East coast/Gulf of Mexico, both ideas which have been discussed, but both are opposed by U.S. environmental groups.

So there you have it. Everyone knows the issues, but solving the problem would require politicians to take unpopular decisions, so it is easier to just delay and keep buying Russian Gas.

Edited March 8, 2022 by Sgt Joch

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The thing about seeing only the Ukrainian perspective is kinda irrelevant at this point.  We have the information we need to conclude that Russia lost the war already.  Another video of a T-80 being towed by a Ukrainian tractor is just icing on the cake.

Steve

Especially from a strategic / geopolitical POV that's a fact imo (and has been for a couple of days). 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Lethaface

[Taranis]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian BMP-3 and T-72B3 in Snihurivka, Mykolaiv oblast. This is settlement in 53 km to the east from Mykolaiv and 45 km north to Kherson on the road Kherson - Kryvyi Rih

 

 

Somewhere in Mykolaiv oblast. Judging on clear sky looks like todays video - shelled and abandoned Russian ammunition supply trucks

 

 

It seems to be a 2S12 Sani 120mm mortar units (2B11 Sani mortar with truck). Note, the base plate in the truck

[sburke]

technically an embassy is territory of its country, so did this guy just launch NATO into a ground war? 

'I've Done My Bit, Lads:' Man Hits Russian Embassy to Force Ambassador Out (msn.com)

 

"I just done this to create a safe corridor for the Russian ambassador to leave Ireland,"

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

 I am Canadian and frankly the lines we fed ourselves for over 30 years of a utopian liberal humanistic new world order, and kept smoking right up until Feb 24th meant we lost sight of just how nasty the world was really getting and failed to do anything about it.

I hope that some lines are re-drawn as a result of this and we try and realize that things like freedom and democracy come at costs that every generation must pay, not just the ones in the movies. 

As another Canadian, I hope our government takes note and brings our defense spending in line with the 2% GDP guideline.  We really have been coasting along on our past reputation far too long.  Lot of items for the shopping list.

[Battlefront.com]

I do love the Irish.  And not just because I grew up around Boston

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

As another Canadian, I hope our government takes note and brings our defense spending in line with the 2% GDP guideline.  We really have been coasting along on our past reputation far too long.  Lot of items for the shopping list.

So much bigger than equipment.  For too long we have sold Canadians on "better kit = better military" we are past that.  We need to look at military reforms that cut across the entire institution, hell our mobilization model is based on WW2.  2% GDP is no good if it means we just "buy more wrong".

[Taranis]

Quote

McDonald’s annonce la fermeture temporaire de ses 850 restaurants en Russie

La chaîne américaine de fast-food McDonald’s a annoncé mardi qu’elle avait décidé de fermer temporairement ses 850 restaurants en Russie et de suspendre toutes ses opérations dans le pays, emboîtant ainsi le pas à de nombreuses multinationales ayant décidé de prendre leurs distances avec Moscou.

Le groupe continuera à payer ses 62 000 salariés dans le pays, a affirmé dans un message le directeur général de l’entreprise, Chris Kempczinski. Neuf pour cent du chiffre d’affaires et 3 % des bénéfices opérationnels de McDonald’s proviennent de Russie.

McDonald's announces the temporary closure of its 850 restaurants in Russia
The American fast-food chain McDonald's announced on Tuesday that it had decided to temporarily close its 850 restaurants in Russia and to suspend all its operations in the country, following in the footsteps of many multinationals which have decided to distance themselves from Moscow. .

The group will continue to pay its 62,000 employees in the country, said in a message the company's general manager, Chris Kempczinski. Nine percent of McDonald's revenue and 3% of operating profit comes from Russia.

Source : Le Monde

 

[Battlefront.com]

The genius of pre-2022 Putin is that he's been very, very smart about how far he pushes things with Europe. He knows how democracies work, or don't, when faced with challenges.  By and large they kick the can down the road because the political cycles are all too short for long term thinking to be a serious consideration for politicians.  China and Putin have the luxury of ignoring the short term because their decision making cycles are measured in decades not 2 year cycles.

On top of this, the democracies tend to work together to solve problems.  The EU, in particular, has a requirement that opinion be unanimous amongst its members.  This is why a major part of Putin's efforts have been trying to throw sand into the machinery.  Specifically, spending hundreds of millions of Dollars funding groups inside of those countries who can cause problems.  Including directly funding political parties.

Perhaps even more consequential is the TRILLIONS of Dollars in money laundering activities that have been going on for years.  The nickname of "Londongrad" is not undeserved. Putin doesn't have to convince a single person to support his political ambitions, he just has to convince them that doing something about Russia means not getting easy money from Oligarchs.

The pure genius about this strategy is it is sustainable long term because he's using inherent weaknesses of the West to his advantage and having to invest relatively little money to make it happen.  And when he does something bad, he calculates it to be not quite bad enough to shut off all that money.  Well, until now.  The people who have been willingly enabling Putin's bad behavior for profit have to keep their mouths shut or be exposed for who they really are.

It's about time.

Steve

[kraze]

22 minutes ago, sburke said:

technically an embassy is territory of its country, so did this guy just launch NATO into a ground war? 

'I've Done My Bit, Lads:' Man Hits Russian Embassy to Force Ambassador Out (msn.com)

 

"I just done this to create a safe corridor for the Russian ambassador to leave Ireland,"

"The embassy responded to Wisley's action on Monday by calling it a "criminal act of insanity against a peaceful diplomatic mission." 

I strongly suggest Ireland check that embassy for the presence of heavily armed leprechauns without insignia, a bunch of hesbollah and ISIS terrorists and a Z-marked T-72 or two.

 

[Haiduk]

Somewhere in 25 km southern of Lebedyn town, Sumy oblast. Stugna-P ATGM unit of 93rd mech.brigade ambushed enemy convoy of 4th Guard tank division. They destroyed two supply trucks (one with ammunition, other with a food), one T-80U and BMP. Russians abandoned three other T-80U and one MSTA-S. Our soldier tells, scattered Russians murdered some civilains in the village nearby to take their cars and flee to Russia, but they were cought by territorial defense and locals.

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

Putin Has No Political End Game Against Ukrainian Resistance: CIA Director (businessinsider.com)

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Somewhere in 25 km southern of Lebedyn town, Sumy oblast. Stugna-P ATGM unit of 93rd mech.brigade ambushed enemy convoy of 4th Guard tank division. They destroyed two supply trucks (one with ammunition, other with a food), one T-80U and BMP. Russians abandoned three other T-80U and one MSTA-S. Out soldier tells, scattered Russians murdered some civilains in the village nearby to take their cars and flee to Russia, but they were cought by territorial defense and locals.

 

Two T-80BVs there also. I think we’ve seen all these particular tanks in previous videos?

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

I think we’ve seen all these particular tanks in previous videos?

Looks like this new convoy, I don't recall such video or photo. Other video with 3 T-80U was filmed near Myrhorod, Poltava oblast

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The genius of pre-2022 Putin is that he's been very, very smart about how far he pushes things with Europe. He knows how democracies work, or don't, when faced with challenges.  By and large they kick the can down the road because the political cycles are all too short for long term thinking to be a serious consideration for politicians.  China and Putin have the luxury of ignoring the short term because their decision making cycles are measured in decades not 2 year cycles.

On top of this, the democracies tend to work together to solve problems.  The EU, in particular, has a requirement that opinion be unanimous amongst its members.  This is why a major part of Putin's efforts have been trying to throw sand into the machinery.  Specifically, spending hundreds of millions of Dollars funding groups inside of those countries who can cause problems.  Including directly funding political parties.

Perhaps even more consequential is the TRILLIONS of Dollars in money laundering activities that have been going on for years.  The nickname of "Londongrad" is not undeserved. Putin doesn't have to convince a single person to support his political ambitions, he just has to convince them that doing something about Russia means not getting easy money from Oligarchs.

The pure genius about this strategy is it is sustainable long term because he's using inherent weaknesses of the West to his advantage and having to invest relatively little money to make it happen.  And when he does something bad, he calculates it to be not quite bad enough to shut off all that money.  Well, until now.  The people who have been willingly enabling Putin's bad behavior for profit have to keep their mouths shut or be exposed for who they really are.

It's about time.

Steve

My fear for a long time has been that our societies are completely infiltrated by moles, traitors and bought politicians, at an unprecedented scale. It will be very hard to flush them out. The new God nowadays is money and a lot of people are for sale.

[akd]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like this new convoy, I don't recall such video or photo. Other video with 3 T-80U was filmed near Myrhorod, Poltava oblast

Okay, thought I remembered seeing those two T-80BVs together, but with less snow on them.  Will check Oryx.

EDIT: yes, these two I think:

https://postimg.cc/94CpG3V9

Edited March 8, 2022 by akd

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

My fear for a long time has been that our societies are completely infiltrated by moles, traitors and bought politicians, at an unprecedented scale. It will be very hard to flush them out. The new God nowadays is money and a lot of people are for sale.

We flushed them out in general (hence russians completely failing to grasp the picture here), so you can do too.

And Ukraine is considerably more corrupt than any EU country

[Vet 0369]

13 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Hey Vet0369, sorry if that came across as testy.  Uncalled for.  I should not have watched update on the baseball lockout then commented on anything -- high class problem compared to Ukraine, I know. 

Hey Dan, absolutely no problem! I was wrong to assume that you, like probably 95% of the U.S. population don’t know the history of the region. I, like most males my age, am a military veteran, and grew up in the “50s” doing “duck and cover” drills in school at least once a week, so that probably taints my thought processes. I believe that knowing the history of a region helps to prevent “misunderstandings” and “miscalculations.” That whole region is a quagmire of “they did this to us 500 years ago, so our rage is justified.” My Brother-in-law is first generation U.S. citizen of Lithuanian parents. His, and my sisters last name is Zilinsky. If you did a DNA test of the people in Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Lithuania, and the Baltic States, you would probably find that they would have common DNA.

[Suchy]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The government of the Republic of Poland, following consultations with the President and the Government of the Republic of Poland, are ready to move all their MIG-29 aircraft to the base in Rammstein immediately and free of charge and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America". - the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just stated in a communiqué. This could mean that the planes will be handed over by NATO to Ukraine.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[akd]

Just now, Suchy said:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The government of the Republic of Poland, following consultations with the President and the Government of the Republic of Poland, are ready to move all their MIG-29 aircraft to the base in Rammstein immediately and free of charge and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America". - the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just stated in a communiqué. This could mean that the planes will be handed over by NATO to Ukraine.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bravo!

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

thought I remembered seeing those two T-80BVs together

I too, but there are so much tanks already were abandoned. Even if this older incident, now we know how it happened and how much other vehicles Russians lost.

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Also, I think the EU want to keep a few potential new sanctions ready to use in extreme circumstances.. if Putin starts using chemical weapons, the EU needs to have some kind of reaction available in order to be seen to respond. And at that point, such measures might also be easier to explain to voters.

You can´t fire me, I quit! I guess this means he is shutting down Northstream 1.  Let´s see how this evolves.

 

 

[Sequoia]

49 minutes ago, sburke said:

technically an embassy is territory of its country, so did this guy just launch NATO into a ground war? 

'I've Done My Bit, Lads:' Man Hits Russian Embassy to Force Ambassador Out (msn.com)

 

"I just done this to create a safe corridor for the Russian ambassador to leave Ireland,"

Nope, Ireland is not part of NATO

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Suchy said:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The government of the Republic of Poland, following consultations with the President and the Government of the Republic of Poland, are ready to move all their MIG-29 aircraft to the base in Rammstein immediately and free of charge and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America". - the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just stated in a communiqué. This could mean that the planes will be handed over by NATO to Ukraine.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Excellent!