sburke Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Zelensky is talking tax reductions to rebuild businesses etc. He's already past the "is Ukraine going to win" point. So yeah I think it is highly unlikely he's gonna agree to any terms dictated in Moscow. The question now is what happens in Russia. Putin is going to lose this war. Is he secure enough to survive that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Fenris said: From my keyboard on the other side of the planet... I get the sense Zelensky would not be willing to give up much of anything now. It may be wishful thiking on my part but it feels like UKR is starting to get the stronger hand, at least with regards to negotiating. In a broader picture, I don't think he should give up anything, I believe it's important that Putin doesn't gain any concessions so that there's a clear rebuff of this sort of adventurism. There will be other world leaders watching what happens closely and if Putin survives this fiasco it needs to be clear it's not worth trying it again somewhere else. Zelensky does not seem to be in any way reckless with Ukrainian lives, But he is also trying to manage a vengeful fury that appears to be powered by it own nuclear plant, his and his people's. Edited March 8, 2022 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Always be sceptical with those number in an information war, however... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff-Ludumpress Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Takeaways from Sir john Sawers (ex British MI6 chief) insights... - MI6 Knew well in advance about Ukraine and the Russian security issues (predicted it) - Kiev is the historical heart of Russia (he agrees with Putin) - West need to negotiate a way out for Putin - Current Russian terms will never be acceptable to current Ukraine Govt. - Ukraine Govt. didn't think Putin would attack. - Russian armed forces will prevail but resistance will continue (guerrilla war). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw5lzKVn3sc 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Wasn't Ken Philby also MI6? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Even if the numbers are half that, how long can the Russians remain combat effective? Even the half number is more than 20,000 casualties out of a force of less than 200,000. Anybody got any info on the Russians moving up fresh forces. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said: Takeaways from Sir john Sawers (ex British MI6 chief) insights... - MI6 Knew well in advance about Ukraine and the Russian security issues (predicted it) - Kiev is the historical heart of Russia (he agrees with Putin) - West need to negotiate a way out for Putin - Current Russian terms will never be acceptable to current Ukraine Govt. - Ukraine Govt. didn't think Putin would attack. - Russian armed forces will prevail but resistance will continue (guerrilla war). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw5lzKVn3sc Kiev is historical heart of Russia? So by that reasoning then Zelensky should be president of Russia, and Putin the provincial governor. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, danfrodo said: Kiev is historical heart of Russia? So by that reasoning then Zelensky should be president of Russia, and Putin the provincial governor. At the rate the war is going.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, danfrodo said: Kiev is historical heart of Russia? LOL! It is a little bit more complicated... Kyiv - History | Britannica 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 This would seem to support Steves theory of the Russians condition 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LukeFF Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, DesertFox said: I'll believe it (this so-called Russian offensive) when I see it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, DesertFox said: LOL! It is a little bit more complicated... Kyiv - History | Britannica I'm just messing w you, DesertFox I know it's all very complicated. The only thing that's not complicated is that the Ukrainian people today, overwhelmingly, do not want to be citizens of Russia, and 30 years they were able to do something about it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, danfrodo said: I'm just messing w you, DesertFox I know it's all very complicated. The only thing that's not complicated is that the Ukrainian people today, overwhelmingly, do not want to be citizens of Russia, and 30 years they were able to do something about it. I know and I am with you and the Ukranians. To get some good understanding about Ukraine and where they come from historically (20th century) I can recommend this book. Maybe a little eyeopener to some why they and the russians dont exactly love each other. Amazon.com: Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin: 9780465031474: Snyder, Timothy: Bücher 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, DesertFox said: I know and I am with you and the Ukranians. To get some good understanding about Ukraine and where they come from historically (20th century) I can recommend this book. Maybe a little eyeopener to some why they and the russians dont exactly love each other. Amazon.com: Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin: 9780465031474: Snyder, Timothy: Bücher Not that anyone is sleeping now, but that book will keep you up for another month. Not kidding! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, LukeFF said: I'll believe it (this so-called Russian offensive) when I see it. I hope for their sake Gerassimov wasn't leading the charge. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Splinty Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, DesertFox said: I know and I am with you and the Ukranians. To get some good understanding about Ukraine and where they come from historically (20th century) I can recommend this book. Maybe a little eyeopener to some why they and the russians dont exactly love each other. Amazon.com: Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin: 9780465031474: Snyder, Timothy: Bücher A very good book. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, DesertFox said: First off this technically won't really be an "insurgency" it will be a "resistance", the primary difference is that the resistance will be recognized as legitimate by the west and weapons and training will continue throughout. Every insurgency we have fought in the west has been home grown but not supported by an outside power [aside: ok, technically things got weird with Pakistan but that is not even close to what we are talking about here]. So now we have an "insurgency" with MiG 29s. I think it far more likely we see as NVA/VC relationship as I am doubtful that Russia can take all of Ukraine, if the people continue to have the will to fight. The Russians have damn near broke themselves trying to take the Eastern Ukraine and are nowhere near having it under control. So we will more likely see a legitimate and recognized Free Ukraine while resistance continues is Russian controlled territory. This is all assuming that Russia can actually keep going at all, serious cracks are starting to show, and we don't bog down into a Balkan scenario looking more like WW1 with everyone dug in where they are and trying to get best deal at the negotiation table. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 5 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said: I would agree. Even using a tactical nuke in Ukraine would be an unforgivable sin in the eyes of most ordinary Russians, who have friends or relatives, who have visited, and have other connections there. Not if he has one set off in Russia as a “false flag,”and blames it on Ukraine or the West. I feel he is ruthless enough to believe he can get away with it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, DesertFox said: Always be sceptical with those number in an information war, however... "and AA gunners". That's the part that's doing the damage - all this isla and stingers in "AA Gunners" hands... @The_Capt the Vietnam reference is good. Same level of motivation and morale on the UKR side. oh the irony. Edited March 8, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 On 3/6/2022 at 6:42 AM, BeondTheGrave said: Info from ARES ordnance experts on the 9N123K warhead and 9N24 HE submunitions on the Tochka-U. The largest pic of the many provided was miscaptioned, is acknowledged to be of the booster, not the warhead, but hasn't yet been corrected. There is also a sectioned line drawing of the warhead. Lacking from the technical description is the size of the submunition impact zone for a weapon with a 92 meter CEP.https://armamentresearch.com/9n123k-cluster-munition-and-9n24-submunitions-in-syria/ Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Another tank with a red band on its barrel. I've seen this a couple of times now and also a red stripe on some sort of vehicle (I forget what it was). Curious. Steve Perhaps to indicate “Russian tank.” Similar to the armbands and leg bands. Ukraine uses yellow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergeltungswaffe Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, dan/california said: Even if the numbers are half that, how long can the Russians remain combat effective? Even the half number is more than 20,000 casualties out of a force of less than 200,000. Anybody got any info on the Russians moving up fresh forces. Steve's tipping point is approaching. Rapidly, I hope. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 On 3/6/2022 at 8:58 AM, Haiduk said: 58th motorized infantry brigade captured at least two T-72B of 239th Guard tank regiment of 90th tank division, Cheliabinsk oblast ("239" digit in the rhomb), Tanks have more rare "O" marking. Prpbably Sumy oblast. Russian T-72B on the road between Hostomel and Bucha. Todays photo Haiduk, Ref 2nd pic, there is absolutely no way I'd try firing that cannon without first removing the multiply struck thermal jacket and carefully inspecting the gun barrel inside and out. Were things truly dire, then I'd remote fire it without those measures and if nothing blows up, then use the tank, but perform the teardown and inspection I previously described ASAP. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 it is an interesting oddity of this war that the Russians don't say anything about Ukrainian casualties because they don't want to admit they are in a real fight, to their own people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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