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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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8 minutes ago, Huba said:

To continue with the full disclosure policy, I should be done with the getting married part 15 hours from now, so it will be down to the work being BS ;) 

wait, does that mean you are getting married today or in about 15 hours she's gonna read that post and introduce you to a Russian window?

Edited by sburke
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7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet :P But it is 100% worth it!

Congratulations! All the best to both of you...

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15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, looks like we have new problem - Iranian drones. 

Probably they already arrived in enough number (according to Fligt Radar at least three Iranian cargo jets were delivering something to Russia) and crews completed own training.

If recently Russian used Shahed-136 episodically, that in last several days we can see "pair waves" attacks not only on vehicles on frontline, but on cities. Ochakiv port for three days was attacked by dozen drones. Some port infrastructure and port tug were damaged, some drones were shot down. Yesterday attack on Mykolaiv was repelled by Buk, which shot down 4 Shaheds with 2 missiles (looks like hit zone of missile is enough to destroy a pair)

Today Russians attacked Odesa port - administrative building was hit, 1 civilian was killed, gas station was also hit (strange choice for targeting). One drone of four was shot down

Odesa strikes (pay attantion on noise of Shahed)

 

Gas station hit with Shahed in Odesa

 

Shahed was shot down with a missile over Dnipro

Also UKR AD shod down over the sea Iranian UCAV Mohajer-6, wich belongs to the same class like Turkish Bayraktar and Russian Orion. The drone fell in the sea in good conditions and was towed by the boat to the coast. It's will be intersting which countries parts inside this drone

How it looks Mohajer-6

Iranian Mohajer-6 Drone

Ok, well we knew these were coming.  First concern is whether the can be integrated into a larger C4ISR architecture.  Likely first sign of this happening will be a focus on a single type of target, like UA comms or some such, that creates operational effect.  If they keep being used as terror weapons or tactically then it ain’t great but Russia is still not anywhere near C4ISR parity.

Next thing will be to see if any new weird c-UAV stuff starts popping up.  I am sure people are on it and now is the time to field em.

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18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet :P But it is 100% worth it!

And away goes all your freedom for the rest of your life 😉 Seriously all the best from a happily married man.

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27 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet :P But it is 100% worth it!

TURN OFF YOUR PHONE, GIVE YOUR COMPUTER TO YOUR MOTHER, AND BLEEPING PAY ATTENTION. Or in about five years you will be pondering how to immigrate to Luhansk, for your own safety. Best advice you will ever get on this forum.

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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

TURN OFF YOUR PHONE, GIVE YOUR COMPUTER TO YOUR MOTHER, AND BLEEPING PAY ATTENTION. Or in about five years you will be pondering how to immigrate to Luhansk, for your own safety. Best advice you will ever get on this forum.

Best advice ever.   Pay attention to at least the _first_ part of your marriage, Huba!  And while we don't know each other, if we did I'd shake your hand to welcome you to the club.  It's not as bad as some other members say ;)

 

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5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573344774026838019/photo/1

It is actually excellent advice, but good luck figuring it out in two weeks...

Listen carefully to everything the instructor... oh wait those guys are already at the front.  Yeah, okay use the internet for training.  Watch lots of Call of Duty videos, that will surely save you.

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1 minute ago, acrashb said:

Best advice ever.   Pay attention to at least the _first_ part of your marriage, Huba!  And while we don't know each other, if we did I'd shake your hand to welcome you to the club.  It's not as bad as some other members say ;)

 

Best move I ever made.. I'll be toasting you shortly Huba as soon as I get this bottle open.  Congrats

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1 hour ago, Huba said:

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet :P But it is 100% worth it!

I think we can safely assume that on the attractiveness scale your wife is a 10 and you are a 3, more or less.  So you have to make up the difference through good behavior, or else one day she'll wise up and leave you for the first 5 or 6 that comes along.  🙂

I make up the difference via doing dishes, getting her latte on weekend morning, etc.  Must keep them distracted like this or they will catch on that we are not worthy.  If she sees a pile of dirty dishes in the kitchen she might start to notice other things that are not in your favor.

Edited by danfrodo
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8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I make up the difference via doing dishes, getting her latte on weekend morning, etc.  Must keep them distracted like this or they will catch on that we are not worthy.  If she sees a pile of dirty dishes in the kitchen she might start to notice other things that are not in your favor.

Hilarious, but I have reported this to to the off-topic police.

Anyway, in our household we have just argued about whether we were on a particular campsite in 2018.  I was right of course.

And................................back in the room.

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6 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

Hilarious, but I have reported this to to the off-topic police.

Anyway, in our household we have just argued about whether we were on a particular campsite in 2018.  I was right of course.

And................................back in the room.

Hang on, I'm the only one you reported to the police?  I was part of a criminal gang of off topic scoundrels.

Back on topic starting...... now

 

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3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Plusieurs centaines de manifestants se sont rassemblés vendredi 23 septembre à Saint-Pétersbourg en soutien aux « référendums » d’annexion à la Russie de quatre régions ukrainiennes.
"Several hundred demonstrators gathered Friday, September 23 in Saint Petersburg in support of the "referendums" of annexation to Russia of four Ukrainian regions. OLGA MALTSEVA / AFP"
*Not many men... I think the ones in the photos are not the mobilized ones... 😂

You can clearly tell evil tyrant putin forced these poor people to support the brutal murders of Ukrainians. Only putin is evil, russians are of course good and shouldn't be held collectively responsible because "racism".

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

No. His attempt to represent even not agreement, but just draft of agremment in Stambul in March caused VERY angry reaction in society. And this was just one month of war. Russian troops stood near Kyiv, there was no HIMARSes, HARMs and many other toys, all was too uncetain, but the will of nation was clear - no any "freezing of Crimea question for 15 years". Our victory condition - borders of 2014. 

People's opinions can change, especially when the basic circumstances have shifted significantly.  It really depends on the specifics of what is being proposed.

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Now all - Zelenskiy, Reznikov. Daniliov - they consider after Russian will get several heavy punches and UKR turned back on the Feb 24 borders, then Russian will be forced to negotiations to return Donbas and Crimea in diplomacy way. But if no, they all ready to do it by military force. 

This is the hope of Russian collapse solving the risk problem.  This is what I consider the best case.  Military force is fine with me if Ukraine wishes to accept the responsibility of casualties and a potential insurgency and/or a tactical nuke.

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Zaluzhnyi in one of interviews several months ago told AFU have objectives - to the end of the year to enter in Northern Cremea. Of course this plans assumed more fast western heavy weapon arriving in big number, but this is not happened in proper quantity. But here is just a fact, UKR will not hasitate to cross "red lines" or not.    

If that's what they want to do, I support it.  But I think it would be smart for Ukraine to assess other options before making that decision.  That is all I am saying.

Steve

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2 hours ago, Huba said:

From my layman's perspective, Germany is missing the biggest opportunity for it's armor industry because of Scholz's indecisiveness.

I find it odd that we are criticizing a government for not tailoring its foreign policy to benefit the defense industry.  We are definitely living in strange times ;)

Steve

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5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I find it odd that we are criticizing a government for not tailoring its foreign policy to benefit the defense industry.  We are definitely living in strange times ;)

Steve

Somebody way wiser than me (and much more full of venom ;) ) said that DE foreign policy can be summarized as waiting for all the crises to be over and then selling cars (replace with tanks in the given example) to everyone involved. As I said, putting all the moral/ ethical/ geopolitical arguments aside, it's a helluva business opportunity to miss.

Edited by Huba
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1 minute ago, Huba said:

Somebody way wiser than me (and much more full of venom ;) ) said that DE foreign policy can be summarized as waiting for all the crises to be over and then selling cars (replace with tanks in the given example) to everyone involved. As I said, putting all the moral/ ethical/ geopolitical arguments aside, it's a helluva business opportunity to miss.

Before you log off... congratulations!  Provided you manage to keep from checking this thread during the ceremony, I think you'll do just fine.

Steve

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1 minute ago, Huba said:

As I said, putting all the moral/ ethical/ geopolitical arguments aside, it's a helluva business opportunity to miss.

It will be foreign aid. you don't make much money by giving free samples. The payoff for the US Lend Lease were the post war contracts. This is not WW2 when the USSR and the US produced 100000 tanks. 

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