How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Before you log off... congratulations!  Provided you manage to keep from checking this thread during the ceremony, I think you'll do just fine.

Steve

While thank you! It's going to be tough - my plan is to give my phone to the missus for safekeeping, otherwise I can't vouch for myself. And I'll take this off-topic opportunity to thank everyone for your kind words and advice, as a newbie to this whole affair, I really appreciate it! See you gentlemen in a day or two

[danfrodo]

Some thoughts for y'all to pick apart:

Item 1:  Nukes + US holding back on several issues.  Allegedly US has warned Putin about nukes or other WMD.  Then I think about where the US has held back. 

1.  Not declaring Putin a war criminal to international court, which would have very long reaching implications if he stays in power and wants negotiated settlement to get sanctions lifted 

2.  Russia declared terrorist state -- it certainly is, and this would also cause long term trouble as per #1   

3.  US refusing to provide long range missiles and possibly some other game-changing weapons.  US currently, with intent, is not providing missiles that could easily obliterate Kerch bridge, which we most certainly have.  

4. US not pushing to have RU removed from UN security council

So maybe a big part of US holding back these cards would is because there'd be  nothing left to use to escalate with.

Item #2:  Iran actively supplying RU w weapons.  Previous US pres administration unilaterally abrogated the nuclear treaty b/w Iran, EU, and US.  If this had not been done, would Iran be more neutral right now?  They were super peeved when the treaty was destroyed and it was a boon to Iranian hardliners.

[sburke]

31 minutes ago, kraze said:

You can clearly tell evil tyrant putin forced these poor people to support the brutal murders of Ukrainians. Only putin is evil, russians are of course good and shouldn't be held collectively responsible because "racism".

one of the great things about digital music over vinyl is those annoying times when vinyl gets a scratch and starts skipping and repeating itself.

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

one of the great things about digital music over vinyl is those annoying times when vinyl gets a scratch and starts skipping and repeating itself.

 

And with that... a generalized request for people to ease up on posts that are just an off-topic video.  I don't mind seeing them inline with on-topic posting, but the solo ones quickly snowball.  Definitely seen way too many of them today.

Posting congrats to Huba was not on-topic, but hey... it's the right thing to do   Though now that he's logged off and (VERY WISELY) handed his phone over to his soon-to-be-wife, we can case the congrats posts as well.  By the time he gets his phone back they'll be several dozen pages behind.  PM him good wishes if the mood strikes you.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I get autocratic thinking, but Russian autocratic thinking is sometimes beyond my comprehension:

 

Nobody thinks the referendum is legitimate anyway, so why bother spending so much energy making something so hilariously fake?  Why not just make up a number and go with it?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

[incorrect image deleted]

We might also see more of this coming out from either the newly mobilized or those who are already in uniform that have had it.  Here's some video of the other end of the mobilization spectrum... coffins:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/xm2i8f/just_some_of_the_reasons_russia_needs_to_mobilise/

And one more video that shows the scale of the mobilization within one geographical area:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/xm8lg6/primorye_region_pacific_coast_mobilization/

Steve

[akd]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Supposedly the first images of mobilized Russians being equipped with WW2 era equipment and weaponry:

No, this is from preparations for a 2020 parade.

Edited September 24, 2022 by akd

[BlackMoria]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I get autocratic thinking, but Russian autocratic thinking is sometimes beyond my comprehension:

 

Nobody thinks the referendum is legitimate anyway, so why bother spending so much energy making something so hilariously fake?  Why not just make up a number and go with it?

Steve

I am thinking it is a 'purity' test.   They can fudge up any number they want but if this is a 'purity' test, drag peoples' asses into voting booths.  Given no cover to the actual voting tables and a well placed camera, they can determine who voted yea or nay.   Also, refusal to vote is likewise a 'purity' test.   Vote 'nay' or refuse to vote - means you are 'impure' and....well, you can imagine what the consequences for that are....

[akd]

This one seems embarrassed:

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

No, this is from preparations for a 2020 parade.

Ha!  Well, I thought it looked suspect, which is why I used the "supposedly" qualifier.  Should have avoided posting it.  Thanks.

Steve

[FancyCat]

NYT says that Putin has forbid the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson. Thanks for the interesting discussion on the post war, I don't have much to hash over, all we can do is wait and see if Ukraine ever gets to the point of seeing the liberation of the Crimea and pre  February lands be viable. I hope the West can finally escalate to the next step due to the referendums.

 

 

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine.html

The NYT is listening to smarter people finally!

[Battlefront.com]

Report that Russia's real mobilization target is 1.2 million, with the 300,000 being only the first installment.  I guess they're expecting a lot of casualties

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/23/russia-to-conscript-12-million-people-for-war-against-ukraine/?swcfpc=1

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

New wave of partisan attacks in Melitopol:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3561300-russian-military-base-fsb-dining-place-blown-up-in-melitopol-mayor-fedorov.html

Scroll down and there are some other interesting tidbits, such as Ukraine making HIMARS out of wood as decoys.

Steve

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

NYT says that Putin has forbid the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson. Thanks for the interesting discussion on the post war, I don't have much to hash over, all we can do is wait and see if Ukraine ever gets to the point of seeing the liberation of the Crimea and pre  February lands be viable. I hope the West can finally escalate to the next step due to the referendums.

 

 

best news ever!  Dictator gonna use his magic will power to un-F something that is totally F-ed.  If anyone can do this, he can.  This will certainly help when the history books are written about "most obvious, avoidable fiasco in military history"

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's Sept 22nd report has more details on mobilization.  This paragraph reinforces my belief that the partial mobilization has been very carefully planned to achieve regime objectives not specified in the mobilization announcements.  People on various watch lists, protestors, and "inconvenient" ethnic minorities are being mobilized regardless of if they have military backgrounds or not.

Quote

The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization just 24 hours after its September 21 declaration. Russian officials previously claimed that partial mobilization will only impact 300,000 men and only those with previous military experience.[1] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on September 22 that the practice of administering mobilization notices to detained protesters does not contradict the September 21 mobilization law. Peskov’s threat contravenes the Kremlin's claim that it will abstain from mobilizing men outside of composed reservist lists.[2] Western and Russian opposition media outlets reported instances of Russian military commissars administering draft notices to protesters in Moscow and Voronezh.[3] Russian opposition outlets also reported on a bank IT specialist who had received a draft notice despite never having served in the army or attended military-education courses in university.[4] The IT specialist is likely one of many Russian men who received mobilization notices despite not meeting the stated criteria for partial mobilization. A university student in Buryatia released footage of Rosgvardia and military police pulling students from lessons, reportedly for mobilization, despite Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu repeatedly stating that Russian students will not be mobilized.[5]

Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status. The quota for mobilized men remains unverifiable, with Kremlin officials claiming that Russia will mobilize only 300,000 men and Russian opposition outlets’ sources suggesting that the number might reach a million.[6] Regardless of the total quota, the Russian federal subjects executing the mobilization order will likely undertake recruitment measures outside of the outlined reservist call-up. Some Russian federal subjects such as the Republic of Yakutia (Sakha) and Kursk Oblast are imposing laws restricting reservists from leaving their places of permanent residence.[7] Russian enlistment officers and police are also reportedly enforcing unscrupulous mobilization practices (as ISW previously observed during their crypto-mobilization campaigns) by calling up men by phone, issuing notices in the middle of the night, and notifying men of their mobilization via state social benefits websites.[8]

The Kremlin will also likely mobilize ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate. A member of the Kremlin’s Russian Human Rights Council, Kirill Kabanov, proposed mandatory military service for Central Asian immigrants that have received Russian citizenship within the last ten years, threatening to confiscate their Russian citizenship if they do not mobilize.[9] Current Time reported that residents of Kurumkan, a village in the Republic of Buryatia, noted that Russian enlistment officers mobilized about 700 men of the total population of 5,500 people.[10] If witness reports from Kurumkan are accurate, they would indicate that Russian officials mobilized about 25% of the male population from a single village in a majority ethnically Buryat district. An Armenian Telegram channel published a mobilization list from Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai that reportedly consists of 90% ethnically Armenian residents, despite the town’s total Armenian community being only 8.5% of the population.[11]

Gotta give credit to the Kremlin's creativity of finding new ways to violate people's basic Human Rights and any notion of valuing Human life.  It seems to be the only thing they are good at other than stealing.

What this indicates is that the initial batch of mobilized men will be even less militarily useful than we speculated.  I think Combat Mission might need some training level lower than Conscript.  I'm not really kidding.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

New wave of partisan attacks in Melitopol:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3561300-russian-military-base-fsb-dining-place-blown-up-in-melitopol-mayor-fedorov.html

Scroll down and there are some other interesting tidbits, such as Ukraine making HIMARS out of wood as decoys.

Steve

I wonder how long before the Saheed factory in Iran has a smoking related accident?

By the look of it though, the guidance package is the key bit (Chinese electronics?). Otherwise, it really seems to be a V1 level technology.

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[BlackMoria]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's Sept 22nd report has more details on mobilization.  This paragraph reinforces my belief that the partial mobilization has been very carefully planned to achieve regime objectives not specified in the mobilization announcements.  People on various watch lists, protestors, and "inconvenient" ethnic minorities are being mobilized regardless of if they have military backgrounds or not.

Gotta give credit to the Kremlin's creativity of finding new ways to violate people's basic Human Rights and any notion of valuing Human life.  It seems to be the only thing they are good at other than stealing.

What this indicates is that the initial batch of mobilized men will be even less militarily useful than we speculated.  I think Combat Mission might need some training level lower than Conscript.  I'm not really kidding.

Steve

hmmm... Is 'Cannon Fodder' too over the top for the training level name?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I get autocratic thinking, but Russian autocratic thinking is sometimes beyond my comprehension:

 

Nobody thinks the referendum is legitimate anyway, so why bother spending so much energy making something so hilariously fake?  Why not just make up a number and go with it?

Steve

You are more the benevolent monarch type. 

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's Sept 22nd report has more details on mobilization.  This paragraph reinforces my belief that the partial mobilization has been very carefully planned to achieve regime objectives not specified in the mobilization announcements.  People on various watch lists, protestors, and "inconvenient" ethnic minorities are being mobilized regardless of if they have military backgrounds or not.

Gotta give credit to the Kremlin's creativity of finding new ways to violate people's basic Human Rights and any notion of valuing Human life.  It seems to be the only thing they are good at other than stealing.

What this indicates is that the initial batch of mobilized men will be even less militarily useful than we speculated.  I think Combat Mission might need some training level lower than Conscript.  I'm not really kidding.

Steve

Mobiks would be my first choice, or at least my first choice that complies with forum rules. Cannon meat seems a little to on point.

5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I wonder how long before the Saheed factory in Iran has a smoking related accident?

The Israelis haven't done much, for reasons I still find some combination of mysterious and unconvincing. They will get on board with burning down an Iranian munitions factory though, they do that for fun.

[Battlefront.com]

This is a good Twitter thread that was posted about a week before mobilization.  It discusses the importance of the complacency of the bulk of the Russian population ("Laymen") and how important it is for keeping the war going:
 

Quote

Still, current situation puts Putin in a precarious position. He is dependent BOTH on the passivity of the laymen and the engagement of the radicals. That’s why he sells two contradictory narratives – one about an existential war and another about things running as usual 19/25

Now, the radicals’ demand for total mobilization is totally unacceptable for the laymen. However, the defeats on the frontlines make Putin’s reluctance to put the country on wartime footing unacceptable for the radicals 20/25

Quote

 

The primary point this guy is making is that the bulk of the population just wants to be left alone.  As long as they are left alone, they won't actively oppose the war (or Putin for that matter).  Mobilization is inevitably going to upset the "laymen", either because they are directly mobilized, have friends/family mobilized, or have difficulty with their jobs because key people and/or resources are mobilized. 

As Grigb said when this mess started, it is going to take a while for things to boil over in public.  But the pot is bubbling even if we can't see it yet.  We've discussed how revolutions and coups often seem to come out of nowhere, when in fact they were long in the making.  The Maidan protests are not the norm.  More common is some regime jacking up the price of bread or raising gas prices causes a massive display of public anger.  It isn't the pricing decision that does it, it's the pricing decision on top of everything else.

We'll have to just be patient and wait for something more significant than the paltry protests thus far.  I personally think it's going to take another wave of thousands of dead to really get things kicked off in a direction we all want to see.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

"500s"

 

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Paging 617 Squadron.  Not the bouncing bombs, the 'earthquake bombs': Tallboys and Grand Slams. Now, if the boffins can just work on how to deliver the package....

Kherson Cat

 

"The gap just under 20m is narrow enough to bridge using mobile bridges."

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

20 hours ago, Grigb said:

Things are heating up, so new map:

• Seem UKR got a foothold at Karpivka
• UKR pushed RU defender in Drobishevo to outskierts and possibly cut them off

Looks like Lyman is surrounded, or at least outflanked and untenable. UA about to take another bite off the elephant and move up to the next river line. Liberate Rubizhhne by October? 

 

Bring in some more (gently used) Russian guns, by all means. If nothing else, decoys until the Saheed problem can be solved.

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The primary point this guy is making is that the bulk of the population just wants to be left alone.  As long as they are left alone, they won't actively oppose the war (or Putin for that matter).  Mobilization is inevitably going to upset the "laymen", either because they are directly mobilized, have friends/family mobilized, or have difficulty with their jobs because key people and/or resources are mobilized.

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

You are more the benevolent monarch type. 

Mobiks would be my first choice, or at least my first choice that complies with forum rules. Cannon meat seems a little to on point.

The Israelis haven't done much, for reasons I still find some combination of mysterious and unconvincing. They will get on board with burning down an Iranian munitions factory though, they do that for fun.

I've watched Top Gun Maverick last night. They are waiting for Tom.