Jump to content
Battlefront is now Slitherine ×

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya think?  We just watched drones clear a freakin trench…no sh#t life is different no

Drone? Lwt me guess, FRAG FPVs in support of an assault? What you had in infantry support weapons in 70? Who's really late for for the party?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, IMHO said:

Drone? Lwt me guess, FRAG FPVs in support of an assault? What you had in infantry support weapons in 70? Who's really late for for the party?

Look, let he who has never drunk posted on a Sat night throw the first stone.  All your responses are vehemently disagreeing with basically everyone. Even when they are agreeing with you.  Go sleep it off and come back when you get upright.

And no, it was a video about two pages back where FPVs came in and bailed out some cornered UA in a trench line…by clearing the trench line. As to what infantry support weapons were available in the 70s has to do with any of this is one drunk guys guess.  We have seen videos of FPV squads gutting tank coys, hunting RA soldiers into drain pipes and flying into barns to kill tanks kms behind the front line. If you are coming here with some sort of superiority complex that you really understand drone warfare while we don’t…well you might want to go back a few hundred pages and start there.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Look, let he who has never drunk posted on a Sat night throw the first stone.  All your responses are vehemently disagreeing with basically everyone. Even when they are agreeing with you.  Go sleep it off and come back when you get upright.

are you one of those guys who has to argue with the drunk guy in the bar? 🤣

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 If people have future of war implications based on what we are seeing in Ukraine, feel free to jump in.  But a bunch of corporate vids so we can argue about tanks again…well I am out.

Tanks are cool. Fight me!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Rybar is a Kremlin mouthpiece at this point, he got the message when they threw Ghirkin in prison. The one thing that seems absolutely given in this war is that everything is on tape, and no one can keep their mouth shut, so we will know soon enough.

I mean yesterday we had a Ukrainian video of a done strike on an SPG, and the Russians were kind enough to post a BDA video, with color commentary. That is a beyond silly amount if data.

Well ...

Quote

The data indicates that fires broke out at the warehouse, the technical-operational unit hangar, and an area of open field.

The photos also appear to substantiate Russian officials' claims that no aircraft were damaged in the strike.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm confused because lately he's been talking about how close the Russians are to being unable to keep on attacking.  Yet these comments by him appear to be talking about Ukrainian forces near ready to collapse.  Any indications about who his comments were directed towards?

Steve

Based on the tone, I'd guess Camel is RU and Straws are UKR reserves who gradually fed into battle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, IMHO said:

The problem is Russia will ever be percieved as a strategic threat be it the current President or the next President. And he current / next Congress / Senate.

Gee, and here I thought that was the whole reason we (and many other countries) are supporting Ukraine.

Dave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Gee, and here I thought that was the whole reason we (and many other countries) are supporting Ukraine.

Dave

I read that as "never be perceived" so if I misinterpreted, my apologies, but "never" seemed consistent with other posts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://x.com/Vishun_military/status/1814984523135791246?t=deNpgjzcRPMEWbNqU6aeTQ&s=19

 

Article on Russian artillery systems in depots, including a discussion of the possibility of deliveries from DPRK and Iran.

Automatic English translation works very well.

Summary:

The quantity of artillery systems in Russia is still very large. They will not run out for several years. But after 2025, a significant drop in quality is expected, because most of the guns still in storage were produced before 1950. 

The ability of Iran and DPRK to make up for this is limited. DPRK has a huge reserve of artillery systems, but its content is even older than the Russian reserve, with guns dating back to WW1.

Additionally, DPRK has an interest to not give away artillery systems since its army is very artillery focused and it needs mass to show deterrence to South Korea.

The ability of Iran to provide artillery is very limited, because its military industrial complex is busy with providing various proxy and terrorist forces with supplies. Iran lacks the industrial base for the production of modern barrel artillery.

It is possible that both countries might sell barrels from D-30 howitzers to Russia from their own reserves, but not much else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Carolus said:

https://x.com/Vishun_military/status/1814984523135791246?t=deNpgjzcRPMEWbNqU6aeTQ&s=19

 

Article on Russian artillery systems in depots, including a discussion of the possibility of deliveries from DPRK and Iran.

Automatic English translation works very well.

Summary:

The quantity of artillery systems in Russia is still very large. They will not run out for several years. But after 2025, a significant drop in quality is expected, because most of the guns still in storage were produced before 1950. 

The ability of Iran and DPRK to make up for this is limited. DPRK has a huge reserve of artillery systems, but its content is even older than the Russian reserve, with guns dating back to WW1.

Additionally, DPRK has an interest to not give away artillery systems since its army is very artillery focused and it needs mass to show deterrence to South Korea.

The ability of Iran to provide artillery is very limited, because its military industrial complex is busy with providing various proxy and terrorist forces with supplies. Iran lacks the industrial base for the production of modern barrel artillery.

It is possible that both countries might sell barrels from D-30 howitzers to Russia from their own reserves, but not much else.

What about the cruise missiles and drones? russia does not have to concern itself with the outdated arty side if they can ignore the amount of losses they going to suffer. In the mean time they are getting better at destroying the Ukrainians electric grid, that put a pressure on the EU countries in the form of refugees. Not to mention the loss of manpower that could have been recruited from the refugees. The whole house of cards stands on the USA right now, if they buckle the EU will not be able to go forth with this war. There is simply not enough defense against the russian propaganda, right wing parties are deeply intertwined with the russian interest and the left is too much of a pussy to do anything meaningful without turning on its on ideology. Many of us whom from the eastern part of europe beating the bells for almost a year now that things moving towards the worst possible outcome. There will be war with russia sooner or later there is no way around it, the only thing that matters is what position we are when that war starts. If we are divided, scared and unwilling than that war will cost everybody an unbelievable cost. If we are united and find a way to disarm the russian political machine within our border, than they will be more keen to negotiate in acceptable terms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Based on the tone, I'd guess Camel is RU and Straws are UKR reserves who gradually fed into battle.

I read it in yet another way. In my interpretation, either Russia or the Ukraine can be camels, and it remains to be seen who puts the final straw on whom. Hence the reference to „battle of the reserves” - who has the deeper reserves, may be victorious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I read it in yet another way. In my interpretation, either Russia or the Ukraine can be camels, and it remains to be seen who puts the final straw on whom. Hence the reference to „battle of the reserves” - who has the deeper reserves, may be victorious.

However, quality still matters as does burn rate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, omae2 said:

What about the cruise missiles and drones? russia does not have to concern itself with the outdated arty side if they can ignore the amount of losses they going to suffer. In the mean time they are getting better at destroying the Ukrainians electric grid, that put a pressure on the EU countries in the form of refugees.

You are assuming Russia has a coherent approach to conducting this war. You are right in that they could just focus on destroying Ukraine’s power grid and utilities. For example, if I was Russia I would make my strategic goal to get Ukraine to abandon Kharkiv.

However, even that just nets them territory; Putin isn’t getting the 20+ million young white people he wanted to shore up his demographics.

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

The quantity of artillery systems in Russia is still very large. They will not run out for several years. But after 2025, a significant drop in quality is expected, because most of the guns still in storage were produced before 1950. 

It is possible that both countries might sell barrels from D-30 howitzers to Russia from their own reserves, but not much else.

WTF? So 2025 sounds like make it or break it for Russia in terms of equipment, both artillery and IFVs. Can they compensate entirely with drones for offense, or is offense dead after next year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

 

 

The quote seems a little cut off there, in the article beneath the video it's taken from (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxe25prezgzo), it reads:

“It doesn’t mean that all territories are won back by force. I think the power of diplomacy can help,” he said, adding that a weaker Russia on the battlefield would put Ukraine in a stronger position on the negotiating table.

“By putting pressure on Russia, I think it is possible to agree to a diplomatic settlement.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Yeesh

Considering how many of these have been produced, pretty incredible. Even if a good few might be nowadays shot up hulks rusting away in Syria or Iraq that still doesn't make a dent in the total ... so probably huge numbers have been scrapped.

Anyhow. I will smile broadly when I see the first vid of a drone slamming into a BTR-50.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...