chris talpas Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, dan/california said: The other thing the Russians wanted, but did not get, was to get in 152mm range of Kharkiv. That would have allowed them to make life unlivable there far more cheaply. Other thing as well was the use it or lose it situation for Russia in terms of Ukrainian ammo stockpiles being at their lowest but only increasing in the near term as the congressional roadblocks were finally coming down. Effectiveness of drones on blunting the attack was certainly unexpected by the Russian commanders. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Quote https://substack.com/home/post/p-146537981 Saractosaurus is EXTREMELY negative on the Ukrainian air defense situation, and the supply of western missiles in particular. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said: I mean realistically, Russia and Ukraine are both unlikely to collapse this year, so the war is going to be decided by who wins the next US elections. We have nigh certainty of how that's going to go, and my heart breaks for Ukraine (and Taiwan) but discussing it here again again is not really worth it. The discussion of how tank is dead is at least interesting, even if somewhat circular. I think you are selling the Ukrainians short. They will fight on regardless of who wins in Nov. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 (edited) 43 minutes ago, dan/california said: Saractosaurus is EXTREMELY negative on the Ukrainian air defense situation, and the supply of western missiles in particular. Again, a paradigm problem. Western countries, with all their problems, likely never expected to ever need such a missile production, because a) the war on terror is waged on guerillos with Aks and RPG-7s and no real conventional war will ever occurr b) if a real conventional war ever occurrs, deep air strikes would rob the enemy of his missile production facilities and airforce. But that's not the kind of war Ukraine is fighting. It's fighting a ground war with a token airforce and no ability to reliably strike production facilities. And thus the West sits on its air fleet and watches Russia out-prodcing its SAM missile replenishment rate for 3 years with Iskanders, Kh-101s, Shaheds, Orlans and Zalas for continuous salvo attacks. That doesn't make the situation better, but it is simply not the war NATO would fight. NATO would sacrifice airframes and pilots for a brief period in order to disrupt missile and weapon production deep inside enemy territories. If that doesn't lead to quick overwhelming of the enemy, NATO would be boned like Ukraine. Edited July 12 by Carolus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 43 minutes ago, sburke said: I think you are selling the Ukrainians short. They will fight on regardless of who wins in Nov. It is essential for the West to keep supplying and supporting Ukraine lest they undertake the actions needed to preserve Ukraine but at the cost of Russia and worldwide indirectly. I mean what country would let their dams be destroyed without retaliation? Time to let Ukraine hit Russian military targets with Western weapons. Else we may see a Ukraine intent on cutting the Black Sea trade or attacks on oil raw supply and it's entirely fair for Ukraine to undertake those actions to tell Russia that their illegal actions have consequences, it is up to the West to make sure Ukraine does not need to do that. Quote Russian MFA spokeswoman Zakharova is now accusing Ukr preparing to bomb dam nr Kyiv as a false flag "provocation". The intention seems to be for it to be read as threat Russia itself is considering attack. That wld be major war crime, flooding much of Kyiv If it becomes clear to Moscow that the Russian military has no chance of conquering Ukraine beyond current frontlines then the Putin regime may well expand a "Wild Fields" strategy of destroying what Russia can't have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 The simple thing to do now is give Ukraine longer range cruise missiles. Would have been easy before- hit a hospital, or a mall, and get a tomahawk back in the face. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASL Veteran Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said: I mean realistically, Russia and Ukraine are both unlikely to collapse this year, so the war is going to be decided by who wins the next US elections. We have nigh certainty of how that's going to go, and my heart breaks for Ukraine (and Taiwan) but discussing it here again again is not really worth it. The discussion of how tank is dead is at least interesting, even if somewhat circular. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/technology/no-there-isnt-evidence-that-trump-owes-money-to-russia.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 19 hours ago, The_Capt said: They definitely have different definitions. I am also unaware of any technical limitations that do prevent it from working in Ukraine…because it has never been tested in Ukraine. APS is but one tool, the question is how good is the tool? My point is one of consistency. There seems to be two standards - one for stuff we want to work, and one for stuff we don’t like. Which stuff depends on who is talking. The burden of proof is on APS and frankly any and all point defence systems. While I fully admit that they have value, the level of that value and how much it will fundamentally change conditions in Ukraine are not defined. So if APS is a workable solution for ATGMs and drones, then why are they not on every vehicle we send to the UA? It is fielded and mass produced technology. It has saved thousands of lives in Israel, it could save hundreds of thousands in Ukraine. Especially if it can break this deadlock. As a minimum, let’s get it tested in combat conditions in Ukraine so we can get more data. Same goes for those fancy 30mm guns. They exist…I saw the videos. Let’s get them into the game and fielded. They can be tested and we can actually see their effectiveness. Right now Ukraine needs capability that can break this deadlock and re-start either corrosive warfare or manoeuvre. So if people want to bang on a drum let’s get these systems into theatre yesterday. In fact these systems were in play before this war even started. If “well they are buying more” is a good justification for various technologies. The what does “well they aren’t being used in the latest war” say? Or are the Ukrainians somehow unable to operate these systems? At least then we would have relevant performance data to pull from. I suspect that much of the delays in sending and testing these systems in Ukraine are that too many companies, corporations, lobbiests, Government officials, and politicians have too much “skin in the game” with the systems to want to see them tested in “uncontrolled situations where they might fail to live up to what they said they would do. The longer they can be kept in “controlled situations, the longer they can keep getting their pay. I worked in Govt. projects and contracts in the 1980’s, and everyone made out like bandits except the taxpayers. I don’t expect they have changed for the better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: The simple thing to do now is give Ukraine longer range cruise missiles. Would have been easy before- hit a hospital, or a mall, and get a tomahawk back in the face. It needs to be made explicit that if the Russians start hitting dams, Ukraine gets cruise missies in quantity, and permission to hit any LOAC legal target in Russia with them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 6 hours ago, Vet 0369 said: I suspect that much of the delays in sending and testing these systems in Ukraine are that too many companies, corporations, lobbiests, Government officials, and politicians have too much “skin in the game” with the systems to want to see them tested in “uncontrolled situations where they might fail to live up to what they said they would do. The longer they can be kept in “controlled situations, the longer they can keep getting their pay. I worked in Govt. projects and contracts in the 1980’s, and everyone made out like bandits except the taxpayers. I don’t expect they have changed for the better. Which is great right up until the the 21st century equivalent of Gavrilo Princep tips the world into the crapper, and all the bills come due at once. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 On 7/11/2024 at 1:49 AM, The_Capt said: And then if you actually do defend against the drone….they drop arty on your head. They cannot drop arty precisely on your head if you take down their observer drone. Well, taking down the observer drone reduces the effectiveness of even FPV drones. However, RU is just unable of taking UKR observation drones down, due to sheer stupidity rather than a lack of technology. On 7/11/2024 at 1:49 AM, The_Capt said: I suspect this is due to UA drones production coming into full swing - they were not kidding when they said they could produce 100k per month. Yes. State program (1,000,000 drones program) and private production enhanced by unified military purchasing program really works. That's why I am laughing at the lie that UKR is the most corrupt country. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 (edited) 11 hours ago, sburke said: I think you are selling the Ukrainians short. They will fight on regardless of who wins in Nov. Exactly. What choice do they have? And Europe will continue to support them. What choice do we have? Time to say goodbye to Uncle Sam and his political blundering about. A country that choses that bleached bastard is not fit to be our ally. It's Roosevelt and his band of communist traitors all over again. Mind you, I still hope common sense will prevail in the US in November, but I doubt it. Edited July 13 by Aragorn2002 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 37 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: A country that choses that bleached bastard He and Biden are the symptoms, only geriatrics can be found to run for the job. Yes it is the fall of an empire without a civilization. it had some brilliant scientists who made up for a while. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said: He and Biden are the symptoms, only geriatrics can be found to run for the job. Yes it is the fall of an empire without a civilization. it had some brilliant scientists who made up for a while. Don't be so harsh on the US. They have a system that worked pretty well for over 200 years. That is longer than the current government system of most European states. Unfortunately, now it doesn't work well anymore and since all parties involved would only lose by a change of the system, it will (likely) never change by itself. And if it changes, I'm afraid it will not change peacefully. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omae2 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 10 minutes ago, poesel said: Don't be so harsh on the US. They have a system that worked pretty well for over 200 years. That is longer than the current government system of most European states. Unfortunately, now it doesn't work well anymore and since all parties involved would only lose by a change of the system, it will (likely) never change by itself. And if it changes, I'm afraid it will not change peacefully. Yeah, the only reason why democracy is the best system we have today is because it has feedback. Im not sure if its the right word, but the main thing is that in democracy the mass can push the elite without the need of violence. Every other system sooner or later going to end up in a situation where the mass can only influence the politic thru violence. Its always a matter of time. Now the US has such a deep rooted elite that they don't want lean with the wind of the mass, they put forth two totally unsuitable candidate to this election. Not because they are the best but because they are the most beneficial to the elite of the USA. Its gonna backfire but like what you gonna do about it? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 53 minutes ago, poesel said: Don't be so harsh on the US. Sometimes I think I am dreaming a bad dream, I know that the country of Europe's greatest thinkers also descended in a horrible abyss, and I think we are about to witness a similar situation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 53 minutes ago, omae2 said: Yeah, the only reason why democracy is the best system we have today is because it has feedback. Just about every person winning a presidential election was a very wealthy person. Middle class people have two hopes Bob Hope and No Hope. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 14 hours ago, danfrodo said: I have a theory that TheCapt engages so heavily on this forum because it helps him prep for many of the arguments he's likely to see in his real job. We're like Enders Game opponents where he's actually figuring out how to win in meetings. Politics? I go back to my theory that we're in the Second Age of Fascism. Only question is whether we are at start, middle or end of this age. In the US a whole lot of the electorate is gleefully marching in that direction. Meanwhile, for every bit of good news for UKR there's some other less good news. But at least the Kharkiv offensive looks to have been an epic disaster -- massive losses for not even tactically useful gains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 4 hours ago, Grigb said: They cannot drop arty precisely on your head if you take down their observer drone. Well, taking down the observer drone reduces the effectiveness of even FPV drones. However, RU is just unable of taking UKR observation drones down, due to sheer stupidity rather than a lack of technology. What happens when every drone is an observer drone? All artillery really needs is a position on the planet, type of target and if it is moving. (They try and fluff it up with a bunch of technical stuff but that is mostly job protecting). That can be provided by just about any UAS. This is really the problem in this war right now. Once spotted, and everything can be spotted, the target is vulnerable to a host of highly precise systems that really don’t need much more than a basic dataset and observation…and observation is everywhere - we see it everyday. I suspect that Russia is unable of taking down observer drones because it would mean taking out all drones. That or silence all communication, which they would have done by now if they could. EW is something but clearly it is not able to do this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 11 hours ago, ASL Veteran said: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/technology/no-there-isnt-evidence-that-trump-owes-money-to-russia.html LOL. Oh my these channels look so reputable. Steve is not going to be happy about this little outburst…I suspect he is out finding a good stick. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Quote Pavel also spoke about the Czech ammunition initiative to secure artillery ammunition for Ukraine in countries outside the EU. Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced at the end of June that the first shipment arrived in Ukraine some time ago. Defense Minister Jana Černochová then specified that it was up to 50,000 pieces of ammunition. The goal is to deliver 500,000 pieces of ammunition to Ukraine this year. Pavel stated that 50,000 pieces of ammunition should arrive in the country in July and August, and 80,000 to 100,000 pieces per month from September to the end of the year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 (edited) Abnormal heat have been striking Ukraine a week so far and next week will be the same. Even in Kyiv temperature is +36...37 (up to 99 F), and up to +40 (104 F) on the south. Here is a level of exceeding of currrent temperature over monthly normal in Europe. Ukraine and Balkans are in the center of anomaly. I can't imagine how it to sit inside the armor in this hell. Edited July 13 by Haiduk 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 (edited) On left bank of Dnipro huge fire is continuing to eat wide forest area near Oleshky town. About week ago UKR HIMARS strike on Russian ammo dump caused mass ignition and Russians couldn't extinguish a fire, so it's continuinue to spread, destroying enemy positions. Abnormal heat also contribute spreading of the fire. Sometime it's spreading so fast and unpredictable, that Russians have no time to evacuate own stuff On the photo Russian Msta-S, burning in the forest fire Edited July 13 by Haiduk 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 (edited) Usual work - next oil base was hit by UKR UAV near Tsymliansk town of Rostov oblast UKR FPVs are continuing methodicallay to wipe out Russian power substations in the borderlands of Belgorod and Kursk oblast Edited July 13 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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