How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Naturally, Russian telegrams are already certain it was in fact CIA work (how would US Embassy know before ?), like supposedly most of islamic terrorism worldwide. But that was to be expected.

During the Cold War almost every terror organization was influenced, supported or at least talking to one side of the other.  So as we get deeper into whatever this thing is I suspect we will begin to see the relationship between terrorism and the state evolve beyond “we do not negotiate”.  We will very likely see all sorts of backroom deals and “freedom fighters” in proxy nation struggles.

That said, ISIL is very likely going to wind up alienated by all great powers as simply too unstable - this is not the first time this has come up.  The US spent a decade actively hunting ISIL down all over the MENA and any drug deals with them are pure political poison.  Not to mention they are full fledged loons who really can’t be rationally negotiated with.  So in this case I suspect it is simply a “duck”.  What is odd is why ISIL is picking a fight with Russia now?  Russia did side with the Assad regime and is no friend to ISIL or Islamist extremism; however, why wage a high profile attack now?  Are they thinking Russia is overextended?  Oddly, ISIL could become a point of cooperation between Russian and the US, much like some terror groups did during the Cold War.

This one is really kinda strange.

[G.I. Joe]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That said, ISIL is very likely going to wind up alienated by all great powers as simply too unstable - this is not the first time this has come up. 

I don't have a source handy to cite at the moment, but I recall reports some years back of U.S. SOF acting as forward air controllers for Iranian fighter-bombers conducting strikes against ISIL...

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That said, ISIL is very likely going to wind up alienated by all great powers as simply too unstable - this is not the first time this has come up.  The US spent a decade actively hunting ISIL down all over the MENA and any drug deals with them are pure political poison.  Not to mention they are full fledged loons who really can’t be rationally negotiated with.  So in this case I suspect it is simply a “duck”.  What is odd is why ISIL is picking a fight with Russia now?  Russia did side with the Assad regime and is no friend to ISIL or Islamist extremism; however, why wage a high profile attack now?  Are they thinking Russia is overextended?  Oddly, ISIL could become a point of cooperation between Russian and the US, much like some terror groups did during the Cold War.

This one is really kinda strange.

They for long time ago did flashed their knives at Russia, who isn't considered different than infidels in Europe. Most likely it is unconnected with war in Ukraine as such. But one could wander Russians actually tightened security at least inside their capital...well, apparently not. I wouldn't be surprised if they bribed every policemen on their way like Basaiev did.

Ironic thing is that US send warnings of possible attacks to Kremlin now and even Tehran before ISKP big attack in Kerman months ago, despite being practically in state of proxy war against them. It's humiliation to Putin that Americans know better than him what is happening inside.

Now we will observe how Kremlin will try to spin it.

Edited March 23 by Beleg85

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, Erwin said:

While the US exported more under Trump, under Biden that has been reversed:  "Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States still imports more crude oil than it exports, meaning it remains a net crude oil importer.Oct 10, 2023"

This is (unattributed) fake news. The USA, under Biden Admin,  has broken its export record. And has been a net oil importer for a long time. THAT may be changing now - again, under Biden Admin. Just not sure why you posted that and avoided listing where it originated.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-poised-become-net-exporter-crude-oil-2023-2022-12-19/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2024/03/19/from-ban-to-boom-us-set-new-oil-export-record-in-2023/?sh=4db06863f364

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, Erwin said:

While the US exported more under Trump, under Biden that has been reversed:  "Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States still imports more crude oil than it exports, meaning it remains a net crude oil importer.Oct 10, 2023"

No offense but assuming you got the info from https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60622

The picture is not exactly imports bad.

From the same link, right under your quote:

Edit: just realized I didn't find your quote in the link. Regardless imports of crude oil does not necessarily mean a rise in oil pricing is wholly negative for the U.S.

Quote

The United States continues to import crude oil despite rising domestic crude oil production in part because many U.S. refineries are configured to process heavy, sour crude oil (with a low API gravity and high sulfur content) rather than the light, sweet crude oil (with a high API gravity and low sulfur content) typically produced in the United States.  U.S. crude oil imports come primarily from historical trading partners such as Mexico and Canada. Heavy, sour grades of crude oil are often discounted compared with light, sweet grades of crude oil because they require more complex refinery units to produce profitable yields of refined products such as motor gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Most U.S. crude oil imports take place when it is more profitable for U.S. refiners to process discounted heavier grades because those refineries have already invested in the additional complexity required to refine them.

 

Edited March 23 by FancyCat

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What is odd is why ISIL is picking a fight with Russia now?

Timing could very well be based on the age old adage of "kicking a man when he's down".  Think about it.  If you're part of a group that's got a long standing beef with the Kremlin, and you've seen it totally preoccupied?  Wouldn't you start to think "hmmm... maybe we should start planning something?".  Then seeing Priggy having free run of the country thinking "maybe we should do something bigger?".

For all of its strengths at controlling the masses, Russia's internal security services have not made an impression on me as being particularly adept at combating well organized activities.  I could be wrong, but that's been my impression.

So my bet is timing is based on perceived opportunity to cause mayhem.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

For what it's worth, Ukraine is denying that they've been pressured by the US to halt attacks on Russian oil infrastructure:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/ukraine-says-west-not-pressuring-it-to-end-attacks-on-russian-oil-facilities-00148673

Steve

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I don't think this is reliable information, because I don't think Medvedev is never not this  drunk and high.

Fixed that fer ye

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Timing could very well be based on the age old adage of "kicking a man when he's down".  Think about it.  If you're part of a group that's got a long standing beef with the Kremlin, and you've seen it totally preoccupied?  Wouldn't you start to think "hmmm... maybe we should start planning something?".  Then seeing Priggy having free run of the country thinking "maybe we should do something bigger?".

For all of its strengths at controlling the masses, Russia's internal security services have not made an impression on me as being particularly adept at combating well organized activities.  I could be wrong, but that's been my impression.

So my bet is timing is based on perceived opportunity to cause mayhem.

Steve

The Russian security forces are massively distracted crushing the last of Nalvany's movement, and ensuring no one raise in his place as the face of the Russian opposition. The guys who attacked the theater were probably at more risk of being randomly shanghaied into the Russian army than they were of actually get caught.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-22-2024

Russian authorities reportedly intend to significantly expand crypto-mobilization efforts starting in Spring 2024 amid reports about significant decreases in the number of voluntary recruits. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 22 that high-ranking sources from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), presidential administration, and regional governments stated that the Russian MoD plans to increase force generation starting in the spring and that Russia may intend to generate an additional 300,000 personnel within an unspecified time frame.[30] Verstka’s sources reportedly stated that the Russian military will first focus on recruiting reservists who have signed contracts with the MoD to join the “personnel mobilization reserve” that undergoes military training twice a year. An officer from an unspecified military unit in Trans-Baikal Krai reportedly told Verstka that Russian authorities are currently recruiting such reservists in ways similar to those used before partial mobilization in 2022, but that it is unclear if Russian authorities will order another mobilization wave. Verstka reported that presidential administration sources stated that Russian authorities aim to persuade and even coerce conscripts whose service term will end in April 2024 or has already ended in 2023 to sign military contracts. Verstka reported that sources indicated that military registration and enlistment offices started to issue more deferment certificates to employees of state enterprises and some defense enterprises at the end of February but that the reason for this phenomenon is unclear. Verstka reported that sources differed on whether recent activity in the Moscow Mayor’s office, including the resumption of work by employees who had previously helped military registration and enlistment offices during the fall 2022 mobilization wave and the creation of a new center for conscripts, is related to the upcoming biannual spring conscription cycle or something else.

Verstka reported that employees of the military recruitment center in Moscow indicated that the pace of Russian voluntary recruitment “dropped sharply” starting in October 2023 with the number of visitors to the Unified Contract Hiring Center in Moscow decreasing from 500-600 per day to 20-30 per day.[31] Russian forces’ ability to replenish their significant losses in recent months has been crucial for their ability to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine, particularly offensive operations near Avdiivka that began in October 2023.[32] Should Russian authorities be unable to recruit the quantity of personnel needed to replenish losses and maintain the current tempo of offensive operations in Ukraine through intensified volunteer recruitment efforts, Russian authorities would likely intensify other crypto-mobilization methods, such as the coercive mobilization of convicts and migrants, to sustain offensive operations before deciding to do so by conducting another unpopular wave of mobilization.

A Russian Storm-Z instructor noted that Russian authorities must consider the conflicting interests of the Russian military command, various groups of military personnel in Ukraine, and Russian society when deciding whether to conduct another wave of mobilization or not. The instructor claimed that Russian authorities have resorted to recruiting volunteer military personnel since they are concerned that another mobilization wave would likely spark social tension in Russia and lead to another mass exodus from the country. The instructor claimed that volunteers’ recruitment prospects in the post-election period are “ambiguous” and that another mobilization wave would be “fairly logical” to fill both the active army and the strategic reserves. The instructor highlighted, however, that Russian authorities must consider various problematic factors when deciding whether to call for another mobilization. The instructor stated that if Russian authorities were to conduct another mobilization without demobilizing those already called up in Fall 2022, there would be tension between the newly mobilized and previously mobilized personnel; if Russian authorities conduct a larger-scale mobilization than the one in the fall of 2022 and replace those previously mobilized, there would be tension with volunteer recruits who have open-ended contracts; and if Russian authorities do not conduct another mobilization wave, there would be increased tension among the military personnel who have been on the front for a long time. The instructor claimed that Russian authorities can avoid a possible mobilization if Russian forces systematically improve their reconnaissance-fire complexes (RFC) and reconnaissance-strike complex (RSC) in coordination with offensive actions. The instructor also suggested that Russian “meat assaults” are aggravating Russian forces’ personnel problems and complained that Russian authorities praise "meat assault” commanders who “amuse” Russian authorities with “beautiful” but untrue frontline reports.

 

Really good ISW today, but the most interesting part is quoted above. It quotes several sources about Russian recruiting issues, and highlights several issues that might occur if Russia conducts another mobilization.

Edited March 23 by dan/california

[kimbosbread]

The above is why the drones need to be designed to kill as creatively and painfully as possible (and to record the killing on social media ofc). Designer death, as it were, lovingly customized for a single soldier.

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

The above is why the drones need to be designed to kill as creatively and painfully as possible (and to record the killing on social media ofc). Designer death, as it were, lovingly customized for a single soldier.

Join the Imperial horde, you get to loot and rape to your hearts content is one thing. Join up  to become a chew toy for a truly nasty robot does have the the same ring.

Edited March 23 by dan/california

[Kraft]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Designer death

 

[kraze]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 What is odd is why ISIL is picking a fight with Russia now?  Russia did side with the Assad regime and is no friend to ISIL or Islamist extremism; however, why wage a high profile attack now?  Are they thinking Russia is overextended? 

ISIL has nothing to do with this. It was done by FSB, which already officially blamed Ukraine for the attack because we, of course, hired ISIL to bomb putin's fans and ISIL terrorists tried to escape to Ukraine where they were promptly caught.

The sole fact that no cops or military personnel were present at Crocus for about an hour should tell you everything you need to know.

[Holien]

12 minutes ago, kraze said:

The sole fact that no cops or military personnel were present at Crocus for about an hour should tell you everything you need to know.

That Russia is suffering a shortage of fast response armed units as they have been busy elsewhere.

That decent command and control staff are busy elsewhere (if even alive).

Ukraine is going to be blamed for anything bad happening in Russia whether or not it can be tied back to Ukraine or the evil 3rd party (British, CIA, FBI, America) depending on the whimsy of the Russian elite at the time...

It really doesn't matter what Russia thinks, it's what the real world thinks...

Russia already lives in a Fantasyland so who cares how they spin it...

Edited March 23 by Holien

[omae2]

Nah its exactly the opposite. It doesn't matter what the world thinks its whats russians thinks that's matter. Because they instigating the events they are the one that matter. The russian elite will twist this thing until it makes no sense i'm sure of it, just as sure that there is a huge mobilization is coming with a state of war declaration. With the new flesh, the old meat wave tactic can yield success unless the Ukrainians have sufficient ammunition to kill the mobilized.

Thats one thing. The other thing is that with the state of war things kinda changed. Russian elite works like a cheap clock. Its predictable. They did their election thing now they going to use it to drag the mans into the **** show they created. Its just another escalation. They firmly believing that with constant escalation sooner or later we will back down. And they firmly believing that they are untouchable. Hundreds of thousands may die but not them or their family. This is why the western agencies should work hard on killing the leading elements of the russian elite. If they think they take no risk only reward they will not change their way. General chaos in russia is still better than controlled madness.

[TheVulture]

11 minutes ago, omae2 said:

Nah its exactly the opposite. It doesn't matter what the world thinks its whats russians thinks that's matter.

Yup. If Russia decides to sees this as an opportunity to whip up some nationalist revenge against someone (whether Ukraine, Ingushetia or whoever else) then it really doesn't matter that much who actually did it or what the rest of the world thinks : the future actions of Russia will be driven by where Russia decides to place the blame and what they choose to do about it. 

[FancyCat]

And so it begins.

Quote

After about 12 hours, Russian security services finally have their narrative on Crocus City, and it is as inflammatory as could have been expected. Militants were purpotedly in contact with Ukraine and intended to take refuge there, they say

 

[Haiduk]

Well, here is our answer to Sullivan or to "anonymous sources" in influent Western medias. 

Kuibyshev refinery, Samara city was struck by two drones this night. Fractionating column is burning. This refinery has 7 mln.tons of year output

PS. It was confusion between two refineries. Part of media write about Kuibyshevsk refinery (in Samara city), part about Novokuinyshevsk refinery (Novokuibyshev city, 15 km SW from Samara). I checked Samara VK publics - they tell about the refinery in Samara city - so this was Kuibyshev refinery (Kuibyshev is old Soviet name of Samara). Interesting, Russians rejected any thougts that UKR UAVs can reach them. They believed this is UKR refugees, enlisted by GUR launche frones from Russian territory %). "This villagers just can't do that" - chauvinistical hubris

PPS. Reportedly drones also attacked and hit metallurgical plant in Staryi Oskol city, Belgorod oblast. This plant specialized on producing of special sorts of steel. Local sources say oxigen workshop building was hit, no casualties, no information about damage.

The range is 900 km

 

 

Edited March 23 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

And so it begins.

If they indeed captured all of them alive (it would be very rare in this kind of events) it can become very ugly from political side.

Btw.:

 

[Offshoot]

Interrogating terrorist suspects on camera by the side of the road and posting it to Telegram just a few hours after the attack. They can clearly upload faster than they can drive.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1771489334979379316

Quote

Meanwhile, a video of the interrogation of one of the suspected terrorists is going viral in Russian media. He says that he received half a million rubles for the shooting.

They don't specify who paid him though.

Edited March 23 by Offshoot

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

And so it begins.

 

I think this one is far trickier than first glance.  If Putin spins this as somehow a US/Ukrainian operation then he looks weak and incompetent.  This was downtown Moscow, not some outer berg.  This is clearly a security failure so pinning it on a war opponent makes that opponent look competent and effective.  This is counter narratives of “we are winning in Ukraine” which they have been continually pushing.  So while it may drive support into Putin’s arms for the war, it may very well create a lot of doubt as to his ability to protect Russian in this war.  

In fact a terror attack is just about the worst false flag op to run here.  A massive explosion complete with ATACMs debris along with dozens of others “shot down” makes far more sense.  An asymmetric terror attack by a few armed gunman simply looks and feels like bad housekeeping and a massive intel failure, no matter how hard one tries to spin it.

I have no doubt they will link this back to Ukraine, but already here this is a soft link. “Ukraine was providing haven, but did not mastermind the whole thing.”  I am sure the real wingnuts will come up with all sorts of conspiracy theories but in the end Putin cannot lay this entirety at the feet of Ukraine without making Ukraine look much scarier and effective.  So what will be interesting is whether or not he does.  If he does, then things are likely worse internally for Russia than we can see.  He is willing to take the risk of making Ukraine look like they “got in a good one” because support is seriously flagging and he needs to leverage this any way he can.  If they downplay and sidestep, things might be tighter and more stable  because Putin is not entirely backed into a corner.

Putin has already called Ukraine “Nazi-terrorists” it was his entire excuse for the war.  Demonstrating of given credence to just how effective Ukraine still is at being as such, after two years of war, really runs counter to the entire Russian narrative thus far.

[FancyCat]

32 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If they indeed captured all of them alive (it would be very rare in this kind of events) it can become very ugly from political side.

Btw.:

 

I went and looked up some of the place names of the location, they all resemble government offices of quite mundane nature.

[Sgt Joch]

https://www.politico.eu/article/energy-infrastructure-target-attack-ukraine-russia-war/

Another article that apparently the Biden Admin is asking Ukraine to stop targeting Russian Oil infrastructure.

Since the whole focus now is on the election, the cynic in me thinks Biden is worried that if this causes Oil prices to go up, it will increase the chances Trump gets elected.

[Kraft]

300k officially*, I am sure the real number will be far greater.

Quote

The Vyorstka Telegram channel on March 22 cited four sources close to the presidential office and Defense Ministry as saying that Moscow plans to soon announce a new wave of military mobilization that would seek to enlist up to 300,000 people to bolster its troops involved in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Mark Denisov, the ombudsman in Russia's Krasnoyarsk Krai, said on March 21 that several penitentiaries in the Siberian region will be shut down this year due to the ongoing recruitment of inmates for the war.

Denisov's statement came two days after the Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, approved in the final reading a bill allowing inmates to change their prison terms to suspended sentences without presidential clemency decrees after they sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.

In November, the Kremlin admitted to recruiting inmates to the war in Ukraine saying they "are atoning for their guilt with blood."

https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-mobilization-war-ukraine-prisons/32873203.html

 

Edited March 23 by Kraft