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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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46 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Are they done in panels, or complete sections? I've seen videos of formed concrete being placed into deep construction trenches - they landed onto concrete slab floors but the sides and roof were all one piece, with thickened wall corners and ceiling joints. 

I've seen a lot of different designs tbh. The panalised system looks better from my armchair thousands of miles away but local supply chain issues may make other designs better in some cases. On the other hand, I have read reports that in many cases local commanders are just doing what they think is best, with limited engineering expertise to draw on so some designs may be wasteful of resources or just not very good. 

 

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1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I've seen a lot of different designs tbh. The panalised system looks better from my armchair thousands of miles away but local supply chain issues may make other designs better in some cases. On the other hand, I have read reports that in many cases local commanders are just doing what they think is best, with limited engineering expertise to draw on so some designs may be wasteful of resources or just not very good. 

But all this cement and steel requires heavy vehicles to move up (mud, anyone?), even if it's modular enough that ordinary grunts can assemble it without pioneers.

I'm talking about stuff you can throw on your ordinary supply 4x4s along with camo and wev, and 'install' into a frontline area overnight, (hopefully) before the enemy drones can zero you. Rather than installing your Siegfried line stuff 25km+ back and ceding the terrain in front (hell, do that too).

Will glorified Jersey barriers shrug off 122/152mm? Hell no. But it appears that's *not* what's mostly killing the Ukie grunts at this moment.

...As to flammable, I'd much rather put out a fire on my crappy lego bricks than be picking SPV frag/flechettes out of my skin and eyes. That's the threat that matters now, urgently.

TBH, I believe the WaPo (did I really just say that lol) when they report on Ukrainian villages devoid of menfolk. Bluntly, Putin can shovel more meat into the line (willing or unwilling), so *anything* that lessens that blood flow, even if Ivan/China promptly copies it, is critical path on this phase of the war, to my mind.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Sorry no way this was from the 0.50. It's equivalent to the Iraqi with a 1909 rifle posing against a down Apache. 

@Kinophile

This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position. 

Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it. 

Scheme of today's attack

Image

Edited by Haiduk
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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Kinophile

This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position. 

Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it. 

I'm just not convinced that the HMG that was filming got the kill. Looks almost 90, looks a bit far. Maybe some other AA on the other side, not possible to tell from the video. Also, could this be a shahed again?

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2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm just not convinced that the HMG that was filming got the kill. Looks almost 90, looks a bit far. Maybe some other AA on the other side, not possible to tell from the video. Also, could this be a shahed again?

No Shaheds this mornig, missiles only. 

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The work of pyrotechnicians of State Emergency Service this morning in Kyiv - they loaded an unexploded Kh-101 warhead, moved it out of the city and blew up. You can watch a process. Settlers of this house can celebrete own second birthday

 

Edited by Haiduk
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3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I hate where this is heading. Basically this tech can produce never ending wars not dependent on available personnel, even autonomous AI wars, constant terror attacks deep behind lines and other ugliness. 

I hope someone comes out with a Uber weapon that defeats all frequencies used for drones and these people go out of business. 

You can't even write a proper anti war novel, movie or song with these little creatures. Oh maybe Slayer can think of something. "Droone warfaaare" 

I am pretty sure this sentiment has been expressed every time in history a disruptive technology hit the battlefield.  “Damn gunpowder/cannon/muskets/rifles/machineguns/baloons/aircraft/tanks etc, war is hard enough why can’t things just go back to the way they were?”

The good news is that I am not sure we have hit a change in the nature of warfare yet…maybe…. Character shifts we can deal with.  We are still reeling from the last nature shift back in 1945.  Another one so soon could break us.

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Several days ago Russian media reported about strange incident - fire with victims on the board of trawler "Capitan Lobanov". As became knowingly the vessel was mistakingly hit by the missile during Baltic Fleet practice shooting. As result of incident three sailors were killed, four wounded. 

Interesting, that this trawler already had "experience" of sinking, but this happened in the port and it was raised up and repaired. The fate. 

Image

Edited by Haiduk
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3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Several days ago Russian media reported about strange incident - fire with victims on the board of trawler "Capitan Lobanov". As became knowingly the vessel was mistakingly hit by the missile during Baltic Fleet practice shooting. As result of incident three sailors were killed, four wounded. 

Interesting, that this trawler already had "experience" of sinking, but this happened in the port and it was raised up and repaired. The fate. 

Image

Practice at burning and sinking is about all the Russian Baltic fleet needs with about 98% of the shoreline now in NATO.

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35 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But all this cement and steel requires heavy vehicles to move up (mud, anyone?), even if it's modular enough that ordinary grunts can assemble it without pioneers.

I'm talking about stuff you can throw on your ordinary supply 4x4s along with camo and wev, and 'install' into a frontline area overnight, (hopefully) before the enemy drones can zero you. Rather than installing your Siegfried line stuff 25km+ back and ceding the terrain in front (hell, do that too).

Will glorified Jersey barriers shrug off 122/152mm? Hell no. But it appears that's *not* what's mostly killing the Ukie grunts at this moment.

...As to flammable, I'd much rather put out a fire on my crappy lego bricks than be picking SPV frag/flechettes out of my skin and eyes. That's the threat that matters now, urgently.

TBH, I believe the WaPo (did I really just say that lol) when they report on Ukrainian villages devoid of menfolk. Bluntly, Putin can shovel more meat into the line (willing or unwilling), so *anything* that lessens that blood flow, even if Ivan/China promptly copies it, is critical path on this phase of the war, to my mind.

Ok so if we are trying to build bunkers under active fire from the enemy that does change the equation somewhat. But how bad is it? If you can't even bring in an excavator then it really limits your options and while throwing money at engineering problems often solves them (Kevlar sandbags?) I am not sure Ukraine has that kind of budget! 

If I was in that situation I would be looking to pack something like this, or this on my truck and use it to support a lot of soil as overhead cover in a hand-dug trench. But it won't be nearly as strong as a concrete bunker since a near miss will collapse the walls more easily and a direct hit is game over even for a smaller round. 

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44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Kinophile

This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position. 

Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it. 

Scheme of today's attack

Image

Very interesting, thank you.

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14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Several days ago Russian media reported about strange incident - fire with victims on the board of trawler "Capitan Lobanov". As became knowingly the vessel was mistakingly hit by the missile during Baltic Fleet practice shooting. As result of incident three sailors were killed, four wounded. 

Interesting, that this trawler already had "experience" of sinking, but this happened in the port and it was raised up and repaired. The fate. 

Image

"Final Destination" 2024

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And again about pathfinding issues and need of implementation in CM something like "fog of route" for armored vehicle drivers.

Bakhmut direction - drone operators of 92nd assault brigade watched how one Russian BTR-82A has droven to the ditch or natural terrain pit and other BTR has droven directly to a pound. Drivers of this VTR have NV device %) If it operational of course.

   

Day cadres from this place - UKR operators laugh over Russian driver, who sits near the pound and probably thinks how much money HQ will grab from him for sunken vehicle and how much strong he will be fu....d. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

I am pretty sure this sentiment has been expressed every time in history a disruptive technology hit the battlefield.  “Damn gunpowder/cannon/muskets/rifles/machineguns/baloons/aircraft/tanks etc, war is hard enough why can’t things just go back to the way they were?”

The good news is that I am not sure we have hit a change in the nature of warfare yet…maybe…. Character shifts we can deal with.  We are still reeling from the last nature shift back in 1945.  Another one so soon could break us.

Be honest, who is going to play CM: WDD Where Drones Dare in 2035. It will make Star Wars look dated. Just let the Boomer inside you speak freely, music was better back then, vinyl was better, air and sea were cleaner, warfare was forgiving.

I tihink I'm going to launch CM FB . I'm enjoying the last good things of my era.

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24 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Ok so if we are trying to build bunkers under active fire from the enemy that does change the equation somewhat. But how bad is it? If you can't even bring in an excavator then it really limits your options and while throwing money at engineering problems often solves them (Kevlar sandbags?) I am not sure Ukraine has that kind of budget! 

If I was in that situation I would be looking to pack something like this, or this on my truck and use it to support a lot of soil as overhead cover in a hand-dug trench. But it won't be nearly as strong as a concrete bunker since a near miss will collapse the walls more easily and a direct hit is game over even for a smaller round. 

Yep, all great points, and I appreciate you and @Kinophile and others filling in the gaps on this.

Maybe the word 'bunker' is what's misleading; we're talking more about a 'lid', or some kind of Roman 'testudo' maybe, suitable for tactical 2 man emplacements only.

Core point remains -- whether or not it's 3D printing or even kevlar --  the West still has a chemical / plastics complex that can crank out polymer based stuff in massive quantities, and ship it Ost, within months. 

Which we sadly cannot say about most other manufactures, including traditional munitions, as we are seeing. By the time that machine ramps up again (if it even can!), it may sadly be too late for Ukraine.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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52 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Will glorified Jersey barriers shrug off 122/152mm? Hell no. But it appears that's *not* what's mostly killing the Ukie grunts at this moment.

I'm not sure about this - FPVs are certainly doing a lot of damage, but it was artillery & glide bombs that were the drivers for UKR to get out of Avdiivka. Shelling still happens constantly and a bunker that can resist shelling can resist an FPV. The entrance is the weakpoint, which could be countered by layer physical and EW aspects - eg, a right angle in the entrance hallway, some very short range but powerful jammer at the entrance and decent door?

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UKR soldier in anti-thermal sight poncho. By feedback from soldiers it really masks from thermal sights unveling and they several times could approach to enemy positions in the night unspotted until the last moment. Main issues - the fabric is too rustles during crawling and it damn hot in this poncho. 

Image

Edited by Haiduk
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4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm not sure about this - FPVs are certainly doing a lot of damage, but it was artillery & glide bombs that were the drivers for UKR to get out of Avdiivka. Shelling still happens constantly and a bunker that can resist shelling can resist an FPV. The entrance is the weakpoint, which could be countered by layer physical and EW aspects - eg, a right angle in the entrance hallway, some very short range but powerful jammer at the entrance and decent door?

Tbh a plastic curtain like they use in industrial fridges would stop an FPV better than EW! Combine that with a right angled corner like you said and you will be pretty safe. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm not sure about this - FPVs are certainly doing a lot of damage, but it was artillery & glide bombs that were the drivers for UKR to get out of Avdiivka. Shelling still happens constantly and a bunker that can resist shelling can resist an FPV. The entrance is the weakpoint, which could be countered by layer physical and EW aspects - eg, a right angle in the entrance hallway, some very short range but powerful jammer at the entrance and decent door?

Well thinking generically in CM terms, the Ukes were hiding their strongpoints in the shattered ruins of whatever settlement (dachas, factories, etc.); that's been a classic underdog move for centuries (La Haye Sainte? Camarrone?). So the Russians had to level those with saturation bombardments using the heavy stuff.  Much the same in Bahmut.

But those positions could also be (slowly and bloodily) outflanked, and their LOCs choked off, via the surrounding countryside, where only treelines and the occasional balka provide any kind of concealment and holes in the ground are the defensive cover, with whatever roofing is available.

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2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well thinking generically in CM terms, the Ukes were hiding their strongpoints in the shattered ruins of whatever settlement (dachas, factories, etc.); that's been a classic underdog move for centuries (La Haye Sainte? Camarrone?). So the Russians had to level those with saturation bombardments using the heavy stuff.  Much the same in Bahmut.

But those positions could also be (slowly and bloodily) outflanked, and their LOCs choked off, via the surrounding countryside, where only treelines and the occasional balka provide any kind of concealment and holes in the ground are the defensive cover, with whatever roofing is available.

What about one of these:

https://www.oxfordplastics.com/en-gb/products/road-plates-and-trench-covers?creative=691002070264&keyword=road plate&matchtype=p&network=g&device=m&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwte-vBhBFEiwAQSv_xe3vbGdg50Rqi9Uihv0Sm1aYi4058J_7THowlj6MwRzeDoB-LTA_YxoCUbUQAvD_BwE

It certainly won't stop a bullet (bullets are really good at penetrating stuff!) but will support enough soil to do so and is super quick to install. 

But it would remain a niche use case since wood is cheaper and less flammable...

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An article (in Ukrainian) about Russian factory-produced ammunitions for dropping from the drones. Alas, despite we can see alot of UKR droppings, most of them are knee-made ammo from VOGs, grenades, or self-made mini-IEDs (when you trade HE from sappers, put it into energetic can together with bearing balls and detonator). It's separate story, how to deal with army bureaucracy if you are a drone team and have AK-74 without under-barrel grenade launcher you can't legally to get VOGs!

Only in this year firts standrtized factory ammunition went to army, but it to few in present time

https://drone.in.ua/ua/a494021-rossijskie-shtatnye-boepripasy.html

5277646884_w640_h2048_tablitsya_ofsp_skidi.jpg?fresh=1&PIMAGE_ID=5277646884

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4 minutes ago, hcrof said:

What about one of these:

https://www.oxfordplastics.com/en-gb/products/road-plates-and-trench-covers?creative=691002070264&keyword=road plate&matchtype=p&network=g&device=m&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwte-vBhBFEiwAQSv_xe3vbGdg50Rqi9Uihv0Sm1aYi4058J_7THowlj6MwRzeDoB-LTA_YxoCUbUQAvD_BwE

It certainly won't stop a bullet (bullets are really good at penetrating stuff!) but will support enough soil to do so and is super quick to install. 

But it would remain a niche use case since wood is cheaper and less flammable...

The width of that trench is the aspect in that video. But It's not a bad idea... 

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