How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

What has it got to do with Ukraine?

These two wars are connected but I maybe wrong. It got the attention away for a short time or longer. The media plays an important role. 

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

that our generation chose to mock & ignore. 

I am 73 by 2050 I won't be here any longer. Climate change is good business for these people. They don't fly economy for starters. Oh yes my electricity runs on solar and use the car twice a week. Not much the world can do about climate change even if it is caused by man. Lift the third world out of poverty and you may get the support of something like 6 Billion people. Yes that takes industry, our indigenous people lived in 50C during summer for the last 40000 years. Better get used to it. 

[danfrodo]

deleted, the above is so awful  just need to walk away

Edited November 13, 2023 by danfrodo

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

But, hey, all cool, cuz you won't be here.  Nice FU to all our children & grandchildren.

I live in Australia and worked in 50 C. Oh yes the two wars are completely not connected and I will use the reference Battlefront Forums Wargamers Community. Far better than fully accredited journalists. I know people who resort to personal attacks are worth zilch. To work in 50 C is lovely speaking from personal experience it is lovely a year and you are used to it. 50C is about 114 F. Now stick to the Ukraine War topic not the game.

[danfrodo]

xxxxx

Edited November 13, 2023 by danfrodo

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Just how drunk are you right now?  50C is 122F.  Aint nobody doin' much for long at 122C, else they be dead.  You went way off topic and now are playing the game of passive agressive nonsense.  You said things that are utterly factually ridiculous, narcissistic (I'm so tough I can handle 50C you sissies need toughen up), and sickeningly selfish, and then get upset when confronted.  You've said some really, really ignorant things here but you've really outdone yourself this time.

let it go, just not worth it.  Clearly he doesn't comprehend what climate change really means.  You can't argue with someone that takes pride in their ignorance.... and it is just going waaaaaayyyyy off topic

Edited November 13, 2023 by sburke

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

let it go, just not worth it.  Clearly he doesn't comprehend what climate change really means.  You can't argue with someone that takes pride in their ignorance.... and it is just going waaaaaayyyyy off topic

Heard, Chef 

[Vanir Ausf B]

[Battlefront.com]

c'mon, seriously?  Knock it off.

Steve

[Kinophile]

I'm just glad I managed to shoehorn hypothetical alien bacteria as an interstellar civilizational handshake medium into a forum on the Ukraine war. Pretty dang chuffed right now, tbh. Screw you, forum search algorithms!

[Battlefront.com]

Heads up that Russia is trying to restructure its entire military structure.  ISW has a special publication out documenting and analyzing it:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia’s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war

It goes into great detail about existing and possible units.  There's a lot of good info in here for understanding the units in the mix.

Not surprisingly ISW does not think that any of this will work to improve Russia's ability to coordinate units or field decent quality ones.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ya not sure.  LLF is in Manila so it is already late (early) there...I think he might be drinking.  Not sure how Mongolia got wrapped up in all this.  Gotta say though, Denis Villeneuve made really cool use out of them in Dune:

 

 

I'm in Europe right now, but nice try.

Steve had me correctly.

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

deleted, the above is so awful  just need to walk away

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hah!  I knew this all sounded familiar!  How you remembered sending me something in 2015 will forever astonish me

Obviously this topic was discussed after Russia moved into Ukraine the first time.  Here is a new link as the one you sent me is dead:

https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading Room/International_Security_Affairs/09-F-0759_The_Great_Siberian_War_Of_2030.pdf

Steve

This idea, that Russia ultimately *must* align with Europe/the Anglosphere, or else have its Asian provinces slip under Chinese control is several centuries older than 2015.

As I posted here a good while back, many patriotic Chinese -- including anticommunists -- feel very much cheated by white folks out of their 'rightful' share of the world's landmass and resources. Not just by the British opium traders and other colonialists, but by Russia.

Historical reality is far more complex of course. The Ming court became insular, paranoid and focused on its own internal power struggles*. They fell to the Qing (Manchus, basically a Turco-Mongol-Korean confederation, which is what the Khanates had all become by then). The Qing Sinicised rapidly ("nailed boots to silk slippers") but proved little better than the Ming at contesting lands and seas beyond their traditional frontiers. 

* Plagues and, possibly, volcano/climate-induced famines also weakened the Empire.

[Hapless]

Let's see how this pans out:

If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.

[Kraft]

Russian Mech and mass infantry assault goes very poorly thanks to AGL fire and a Russian driver who rather wanted to be someplace else, regardless of who's below the tracks alas karma made his fate worse.

According to some there is also a very rare BMP-1AM (2018) involved, and some MT-LB troop carrier open top variant.

https://t.me/in_factum/19539

Edited November 13, 2023 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'm in Europe right now, but nice try.

Steve had me correctly.

You should have went with the “drinking” off ramp.  Been awhile since I did Asian history but let me just say I have some reservations about your overall theories here.  First off the Mongol Empire began fracturing in the 14th century, with Mongol-Chinese rule failing completely by late 1300s.  They seem to have had aspirations after this but were kept in check by the Ming dynasty.  Main cause was Chinese internal rebellion (Black Death did not help).  The entire Empire had fractured by 15th century, last Mongolian Emperor dead by 1370.  I can accept “it was complicated” but not really seeing a conative origin story here.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Mongol-empire/The-Yuan-dynasty-in-China-1279-1368

This was all well before the rise of imperial Russia in the 17th and 18th centuries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia

Mulan btw is a legend from as early as the 4th century…so really muddling here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hua_Mulan

So I am not entirely sure I buy Russia put Mongolia in a box and kept them there while China yearned for several million acres of Siberian wastelands…on the other side of the freakin Gobi Desert.

Now to your main point - Chinese Lebensraum.  Ok, there have been some pretty intense “border skirmishes” between these two nations.  But has China ever demonstrated any expansion aspirations in that direction?  Great Wall says “nope”:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wall_of_China

Ming Dynasty had their chance for a few hundred years between 1400-1700 to “go north” but built a big @ss wall instead.

So I guess what my poor North American fixed brain cannot see is a real theory here based on real estate.  Now what does make a lot more sense is one thing China has definitely demonstrated a desire for…energy.  Russia has a lot of it an China wants it on the cheap.  If recent history holds, China does not want to own the land and people that energy comes from (they are already flush with human capital) they just want cheap and easy access.  So Russia weak and vulnerable - to which this war is helping immensely- is advantageous to China in the short to middle term.  In that vein China supporting, but not too much while cheering Russian quagmires in Ukraine begins to make sense.  Russia as a Chinese propane tank to pay for this senseless war makes a lot of sense.  Now if they want to keep some of their population happy by owning more of the Risk board, then this may provide options.

So What?  Why argue if we land on the same square?  The reason I oppose any weird Chinese land expansion theories is that they feed into a Conquest Dragon narrative.  First the Island chains, then Taiwan, then Nebraska!!!!  Wake up Sheeple!  The issue with China is far more complex and Chinas strategic objectives far more nuanced than “Evil Empire Redux”.  That sort of thinking dooms us to a war we do not want.  Are we in for vigorous, even hostile, negotiations, oh ya.  But simplifying the Indo-Pac down to land grabs with Disney sound bites is not the way to go. 

[fireship4]

Ex-PM David Cameron is new UK Foreign Secretary after cabinet re-shuffle:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/13/david-cameron-returns-to-uk-government-as-foreign-secretary

[Beleg85]

Perhaps it was posted before. Russian attack on position of 58th Brigade. Tense clip.

 

[Bearstronaut]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I'm just glad I managed to shoehorn hypothetical alien bacteria as an interstellar civilizational handshake medium into a forum on the Ukraine war. Pretty dang chuffed right now, tbh. Screw you, forum search algorithms!

Someone read/watched The Expanse books/tv series.

[Carolus]

 

30 Gepards in 2023, 30 Gepards next year. USA buyback from Jordan for Ukraine.

 

[Kinophile]

7 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Someone read/watched The Expanse books/tv series.

Nah it was Crichton. Expanse is good but like so much of it,  it draws on existing ideas and tropes. Shot here in Toronto btw. 

Anyway,  back to topic

[Kinophile]

23 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

30 Gepards in 2023, 30 Gepards next year. USA buyback from Jordan for Ukraine.

 

At last. This was mooted ages ago,  I assumed it would take a while and it did, but it is happening. Great news. 

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps it was posted before. Russian attack on position of 58th Brigade. Tense clip.

 

Tense clip indeed.  Glad to see RU losing forces, kinda sorry for those involved that were kidnapped (conscripted) and wanted no part in this.  Not sorry for any volunteers.  

[danfrodo]

5 hours ago, Hapless said:

If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.

Really really wanting this to be true, and significant.  Now I'll be checking here every 15 minutes all day hoping for confirmation.