How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

ISW: Russian officers reportedly contact former general amid deteriorating conditions on front line (yahoo.com)

Officers from the Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast have reportedly reached out to their former commander, Major General Ivan Popov, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest update. This development comes as the situation on the Russian front line continues to deteriorate.

Russian military bloggers have claimed that Major General Popov has maintained communication with his former subordinates in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to their sources, these officers turned to Popov for assistance instead of relying on their new commander. This move appears to reflect a lack of trust or confidence in their current leadership.

Popov was dismissed from his position as the commander of the 58th CAA (Southern Military District) in early July. His removal came after he engaged in clear insubordination by attempting to bypass Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, and directly raise concerns with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Popov's grievances included issues related to poor counterbattery capabilities, heavy losses, and a lack of troop rotations, according to ISW.

Popov's actions seemed to set a precedent for insubordination within the Russian military ranks, prompting reports of the removal of other similarly defiant commanders from front-line units, although not all of these reports were confirmed.

"Popov’s contact with his former subordinates, if true, suggests that Popov’s replacement has not won the trust of his subordinates either because he is less competent or because he is less forthright with senior Russian leadership about continuing challenges facing the Russian defense in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast," ISW concluded.

The hilarious thing to me is that these rubes think Putin gives a flying F about them.  "we need to report this to Putin, he would never stand for this!"  uh huh.

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukraine/post/Cwt5Z_7PbBa

Testing some sort new RWS, appears to be a fifty cal or maybe a lower velocity 30mm gun with a sniper function. Firing single rounds and adjusting optics. More likely in U.S. or Australia than Ukraine, at least this week.

Found the website, it is mostly an anti-drone system. Although it looks like it could make anything less than a heavy IFV unhappy if the need arose. System coming to Ukraine very soon it seems.

Company website

https://eos-aus.com/

[Offshoot]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukraine/post/Cwt5Z_7PbBa

Testing some sort new RWS, appears to be a fifty cal or maybe a lower velocity 30mm gun with a sniper function. Firing single rounds and adjusting optics. More likely in U.S. or Australia than Ukraine, at least this week.

Found the website, it is mostly an anti-drone system. Although it looks like it could make anything less than a heavy IFV unhappy if the need arose. System coming to Ukraine very soon it seems.

Company website

https://eos-aus.com/

A bit of a write up on it - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/australian-eos-to-supply-160-slinger-counter-uav-systems-to-ukraine/

[kevinkin]

A humanist beacon speaks:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive

Note: there is no mention of the human toll. However I think is a good status report from their view of the situation e.g. 

 It is difficult to objectively measure Ukraine’s progress because only a few of the most senior Ukrainian military and civilian leaders know the actual strategic and operational objectives for the country’s offensives. But for outsiders viewing the war, the country’s progress might be measured in ground taken, Russian forces destroyed, progress toward placing Russian forces in Crimea at peril, and the extent to which Ukraine has persuaded Western governments it is succeeding. After two months, it might be stated that each of these goals is “in progress.”

Imagine if the US admin were different if the passage below would ever see the light of day in this humanist beacon of hope:

Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.

Edited September 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-authorizes-production-of-100-howitzers-for-ukraine/

Do we have any update on this? Any timelines?

I have not heard anything for a year on this

[Beleg85]

Nothing particulary new, but good article overall from KI about soldiers from 32nd Brigade:

https://kyivindependent.com/new-brigade-bears-heavy-brunt-of-russias-onslaught-in-kharkiv-oblast/

[chuckdyke]

Look at this survival expert, grows her own wheat and bakes her own bread. enough for a platoon by the looks of it. 

 

[poesel]

We never saw a video, or did we?

https://defence-blog.com/russia-announces-armata-tanks-pullback-from-ukraine/

Traps on mines:

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1697994294534017302

and a nice joke:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1698259322755580209

Edited September 3, 2023 by poesel

[cesmonkey]

Last night's ISW report mentioned that the head of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Valery Garbuzov, was recently fired from his job for this opinion piece in the Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper.

It has some wonderful quotes, but the whole piece is a good read:
https://www.ng.ru/ideas/2023-08-29/7_8812_illusions.html

Quote

Director of the Institute for the USA and Canada Valery Garbuzov on the Lost Illusions of the Bygone Era
Russia needs knowledge, not myths, for self-knowledge

About the author: Valery Nikolaevich Garbuzov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute for the USA and Canada Academician G.A. Arbatov RAS.

Quote

In the conditions of the information age, replacing realities with illusions, Russia seemed to be frozen in the past, still relying on the tsar-priest or another firm hand of the supreme power, while trying unsuccessfully to regain its former greatness, lost possessions and world influence.

Quote

Shameful, gentlemen, and humiliating!

Background info on the institute:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_US_and_Canadian_Studies

Edited September 3, 2023 by cesmonkey

[cesmonkey]

The tops of Russian bombers were not painted in camouflage to confuse drones, after all:
 https://t.me/milinfolive/105941
 

Quote

As it turned out, the Tu-95MS on satellite images from Engels were not repainted to blur the silhouette, as previously thought, but were lined with car tires .

This can be understood from the recently published better pictures.

Apparently, it is assumed that the tires should somehow protect the Tu-95MS from dropping ammunition from the copter. Now it remains to wait for the protective visors for missile carriers, by analogy with tanks.

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

The tops of Russian bombers were not painted in camouflage to confuse drones, after all:
 https://t.me/milinfolive/105941

Here photos, if somebody lack Tg:

Copetires... Tirecoping... Vulcopium? Anyway, what an occassion for Trent Telenko to go back in style.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

Yes, the writer and his parent Chicago Tribune come from right field but read this with open eyes:

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2023/08/29/is-the-biden-administrations-ukraine-policy-sustainable/

To date, the Biden administration has managed to accomplish two objectives:

Assist Ukraine as it resists Russia’s aggression.
Ensure NATO isn’t dragged into the conflict, preventing escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia.

It’s a fine balancing act that could quickly unravel depending on how the war evolves. Straddle back the aid, and Russia’s prospects on the ground improve; outsource U.S. policy to Ukraine’s maximalist objectives, particularly in Crimea, and run the risk of a desperate Putin making even more desperate, dangerous decisions.

Biden, therefore, will have to be prepared for a scenario in which Russia’s defensive lines are simply too strong to break through. This is more likely than the full Russian troop withdrawal the Ukrainian government has been aiming for over the last year and a half.

The U.S. should adjust its policy accordingly, now, by dropping its support for maximalist Ukrainian war aims and pivot toward support for armed neutrality: consistent U.S. defensive support for the Ukrainian Army so it can keep the territory it presently holds and ensure Kyiv’s deterrent against Russian aggression is intact over the long haul.

Such a pivot will require compromises, but it’s the best way of bolstering Ukraine’s defensive needs in the least costly way possible. Meanwhile, Europe, which has more of a security imperative in boosting Ukraine’s victory or at least preventing its defeat, should use the time to exhibit primary leadership over this issue.

Tough but necessary choices are around the corner.

So piss or get off the pot. I would include the once mighty USA in that recommendation too. 

Edited September 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Look at this survival expert, grows her own wheat and bakes her own bread. enough for a platoon by the looks of it. 

Almost each who lives in village can do this ) In Ukraine each rural homested has own small or large market garden, even families, who are farmers except own fields carry on own market garden or even several. In late USSR homesteads could have from 0,15 to 0,6 ha (0,37 - 1,48 acres) of land. This was enough to supply usual family at least with own vegetables (most popular on our market gadens are potato, tomatoes, cucumbers and onion). Also homesteads, having bigger allotments often have own chickens, ducks, rabbits, pigs, sometime a cow. Many those, who live in cities have own old parents in villages, and help them to grow vegetables, which then they can  eat and these own vegetables are 100 % eco-natural. Also many citizens buy dachas, which also have small piece of land (0.05-0.07 ha), but often some free space all the same are diverted under beds of vegetables. 

Yes, this is survival experience of two wars and especailly Holodomor, which hands over from generation to generation. In last years many young people become to forgot from where they get food, thinking it appears in magical way in supermarkets, many people told "its enough to work hard for this potato, when we can buy it in any time in any place". But Russian invasion again showed that own market garden and "house in the village" is always actual thing. 

During siege of Kyiv in March, there was too few vegetables in city supermarkets, but villagers and farmers were coming to Kyiv on own cars on single free road and traded own vegetables to citizens. Of course, their food costed in 1.5 and sometine in 2 times more, than in supermarkets, but we could buy almost everything ecxept exotic %) 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR TB2 Bayraktar hit Rissian KS-701 Tunets class boat, landing personnel on sea shore in Kherson oblast 

Reportedly 6 killed, 2 wounded

KS-701 is a small patrol or auxiliary boat, using mostly in Coast Guard. Black Sea Coast Guard has 18 KS-701 boats. 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[Heirloom_Tomato]

https://imgur.com/gallery/WcprcQ5

A good joke for this thread.

[chris talpas]

Latest Perun video

 

Details some of the success Ukraine has had on drone front while also discussing how Russia has squandered its advantages in missiles and launch platforms by spreading its attacks over many targets, often of questionable strategic value, rather than achieving a decisive blow.

He also focuses on the importance of the F16’s not so much as a wonder weapon but rather as a critical replacement for the badly attrited SU-24 Fencers  that are Ukraine’s sole launch platform for its ALCMs like Storm Shadow.  The F16 also opens up easy integration of other NATO weapon systems.

Perun also discusses the challenges of trying to run a ground offence when you are outnumbered in the air.

 

[Vet 0369]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Almost each who lives in village can do this ) In Ukraine each rural homested has own small or large market garden, even families, who are farmers except own fields carry on own market garden or even several. In late USSR homesteads could have from 0,15 to 0,6 ha (0,37 - 1,48 acres) of land. This was enough to supply usual family at least with own vegetables (most popular on our market gadens are potato, tomatoes, cucumbers and onion). Also homesteads, having bigger allotments often have own chickens, ducks, rabbits, pigs, sometime a cow. Many those, who live in cities have own old parents in villages, and help them to grow vegetables, which then they can  eat and these own vegetables are 100 % eco-natural. Also many citizens buy dachas, which also have small piece of land (0.05-0.07 ha), but often some free space all the same are diverted under beds of vegetables. 

Yes, this is survival experience of two wars and especailly Holodomor, which hands over from generation to generation. In last years many young people become to forgot from where they get food, thinking it appears in magical way in supermarkets, many people told "its enough to work hard for this potato, when we can buy it in any time in any place". But Russian invasion again showed that own market garden and "house in the village" is always actual thing. 

During siege of Kyiv in March, there was too few vegetables in city supermarkets, but villagers and farmers were coming to Kyiv on own cars on single free road and traded own vegetables to citizens. Of course, their food costed in 1.5 and sometine in 2 times more, than in supermarkets, but we could buy almost everything ecxept exotic %) 

Here in the U.S. the small gardens are called “Victory Gardens.” They are quite popular all over the country.

[akd]

HE / DPICM mix seems to be a trend:

 

[Haiduk]

FSB Directorate of Kurchatov city (Kursk oblast) was hit with a drone

 

[Beleg85]

Just news worth to note from political backyard- Rheznikov was just fired from UA Ministry of Defence. New MOD will be Rustem Umerow, a Crimean Tatar.

Just recently Ihor Kolomoyskiy was visited by grim gentlemen from anti-corruptions services, too...interesting developments, given that both were firmly in "team Zelensky". From outside it looks like  are positie developments, as it shows to the world there will be no short-walks regarding corruption. But perhaps our Ukrainian members will hold different opinion ofc.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

https://imgur.com/gallery/WcprcQ5

A good joke for this thread.

That is TOO FUNNY!

And if anybody wants to visit one of the most beautiful places on Earth, Lake Bled (where the joke was made) certainly qualifies for that status.  Well, at least in my book

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

HE / DPICM mix seems to be a trend:

 

Second video seems to show a FPV kamikaze slamming into the grouping right at the end.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Just news worth to note from political backyard- Rheznikov was just fired from UA Ministry of Defence. New MOD will be Rustem Umerow, a Crimean Tatar.

Just recently Ihor Kolomoyskiy was visited by grim gentlemen from anti-corruptions services, too...interesting developments, given that both were firmly in "team Zelensky". From outside it looks like  are positie developments, as it shows to the world there will be no short-walks regarding corruption. But perhaps our Ukrainian members will hold different opinion ofc.

This is official now?  I saw posts a couple of days ago saying that it has been a rumor for a while, but not that he would be fired specifically.  Just that he would be leaving his post.

I wonder if this is directly related to the earlier scandal which has kept him out of the spotlight pretty much ever since.

Steve

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

was visited by grim gentlemen from anti-corruptions services

From SBU. Conspirologists among Poroshenko followers claim Zelenskiy tries to save Kolomoiskiy from NABU investigatin on milliards (NABU as if is under USA control), "handing over" him to SBU (as if under Yermak control) investigation  for much less criminal case. 

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

From SBU. Conspirologists among Poroshenko followers claim Zelenskiy tries to save Kolomoiskiy from NABU investigatin on milliards (NABU as if is under USA control), "handing over" him to SBU (as if under Yermak control) investigation  for much less criminal case. 

Ukrainian domestic politics are truly Gordian knot to everyone outside.

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is official now?  I saw posts a couple of days ago saying that it has been a rumor for a while, but not that he would be fired specifically.  Just that he would be leaving his post.

Yup. He was to be fired for a long time.

Persona of new MoD is also quite interesting. It may send a strong signal that Crimea will not be given easily. Perhaps change in this office mid-war may have more repercussions than we are accustomed in Western countries- no doubt Rheznikov had a lot of personal contacts and clearly good vibes with some western leaders. On other note, I already read opinions that new minister was likely being prepared for some time and probably consulted (?) with Western partners too. At the very least, it is likely connected to Kolomoysky case.