How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Scenario for a movie.

Recently Russians claimed their jets have sank four UKR RIBs near Tarkhankut. Unknown it was a fake or some grian of salt took place, but one Ukrainian soldier turned out in the sea. Our RIBs tried to resque him, but Russian jets have been flying over one by one and shooting with a guns, forcing our boats to maneuver and withdraw. When boats couldn't reach a soldier, TB2 Bayraktar was sent to find him. It has found lost in the sea by his thermal trail. When UAV found him, operators locked on the man and tracked him until next attempt of boats was successfull. The soldier was resqued after 12 hours in the sea

 

This is why Ukraine is not gonna loose.

The Russians wouldn't consider such a rescue-effort for one guy. They probably even can't imagine such a thing!

Somewhere in the late '70's of the last century, while the Cold War was raging and the USSR was perhaps at it strongest, my father assured me that he was absolutely adamant that the USSR would collapse. Because, he said, evil empires never last.

My father's long gone, but he would say: Putin's Russia will not last. 

 

 

[Beleg85]

More details of Pskov airstrike, including live shot from a drone flying (?) over it.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image

[chuckdyke]

We are not fancy but we are cheap. 

Five Russian jets 'destroyed by cardboard drones as easy to assemble as an Ikea flatpack' in attack by Ukrainian forces last week (msn.com)

[Kinophile]

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

President Zelenskiy made a statement today, that new UKR misisile succesfully hit target on 700 km range. 

Oleksiy Danilov, Secrter of National Security Council has issued a video with, as claimed, the launch of this missile

Maybe the strike on Pskov could be combined - this missile + drones. Except burned and damaged planes, were hits in airfield fuel depot and also into weapon storage of 2nd Spetsnaz brigade base, deployed in Pskov along with 76th air-assault division

 

Hmm.   Maybe this is why we've seen no evidence of Hrim-2 since the possible use against the Saki airbase just about one year ago.  The Hrim-2 was always going to be a tough one to produce, especially under time pressure.  There was probably better systems to invest in and this is maybe it.

Steve

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

Interesting.

I'd heard they *really* liked the Light Gun, but not *that* much.

[JonS]

8 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

To further deconstruct the myth of the Germans being better, American artillery to my knowledge was significantly superior to Germans or Brits. Brits were fast to setup but inaccurate, and the Germans required precise surveys and maps so given time and preparation, were accurate. America, befitting its status as the best country of all time, needed minimal surveys and used tapes with different shell/charge/atmospheric conditions that made it easy to get fire on target fast.

That's ... one take on it.

[FancyCat]

Quote

Like pretty much every morning over the past two weeks, Moscow airports shut down and divert/delay dozens of flights because of the Ukrainian drone threat. Not sure how much longer international airlines like

@Emirates

can keep flying there under these conditions.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1000 drones and 30 automated weapons systems have been delivered to combat units as part of the Army of Drones initiative.  No timeframe for the deliveries, but I assume it stretches back many months:

https://en.defence-ua.com/events/more_than_1000_drones_were_handed_over_to_the_ukrainian_military_to_enforce_their_capabilities-7801.html

 

Seems Ukraine is increasing its footprint on the the left bank of the Dnepr according to Russian reports.  This time to the west of Kozachi Laheri, which (as Noel notes) is a new location indicating that Ukraine is widening its holdings on the left bank.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Moscow authorities claimed UKR drone was shot down in Moscow suburb Lyubertsy, but locals say it struck a workshop of "Tomilinskiy electronic plant".

The mayor of Kurchatov city (Kursk oblast, one of centers of nuclear science + nuclear plant) claimed two drones have attacked the city - one hit administrative building, other hit residential building. Reportedly no casualties.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmm.   Maybe this is why we've seen no evidence of Hrim-2 since the possible use against the Saki airbase just about one year ago.  The Hrim-2 was always going to be a tough one to produce, especially under time pressure.  There was probably better systems to invest in and this is maybe it.

Steve

On the video more likely not balistic Hrim-2, but some new cruise missile with powder booster, dropping after the launch. I doubt this is upgraded Neptun, because it's need bigger hull to place enough fuel for 700 km of range

Edited September 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

That's ... one take on it.

The best take on it of all time.

[Haiduk]

Russian TG reports their Ka-52 was shot down, pilots ejected

[Teufel]

The ever so subtle Tom Cooper

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-1-september-2023?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Must admit, at first I didn’t even pay attention at some of the following news. But, then it dawned upon me, ‘too’ (yes, I can be very slow in comprehending few thingies): to make things ‘better’ and ‘easier’ for the Russians, and in the light of the Keystone Cops sending so many VDV troops from western Luhansk to southern Zaporizhzhya, the last few days the ZSU ‘re-opened’ and ‘widened’ its offensive operations in the latter area, and in south-western Donetsk. Correspondingly, launched one attack south of Vuhledar, reportedly recovering one village there.

In similar fashion, in the Novoprokopivka-Tokmak area, the ZSU widened the active sector of the frontline by re-deploying the 82nd Airborne to Verbove. Apparently, this came rather unexpectedly for the 417th Reconnaissance Regiment, which fell back and had to be bolstered by VDV in a big rush. As a result, Ukrainians are meanwhile fighting well inside the southern part of that village. And, to make things yet more interesting for the 48th CAA, they’re seem to have mauled the 108th VDV as this was deploying into the Surovikin Line, west of Verbove, and then captured that section of the (2nd) Russian defence line. With this, this sector of the Russian Maginot was breached at a width of some 3,200m.

The last I’ve heard in this regards is that the HQ 58th CAA threw all that’s left of the 71st MRR, plus BARS-1/3/11/14 back into the battle in attempt of preventing an Ukrainian advance in direction of Romanivske and/or Ocheretuvate.

To Cooper’s post we can add this one from today, poor paint job but serves it’s purpose;

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

Kyrylo Budanov, chief of GUR told drones, attacked Pskov airfield were launched from territory of Russia. 

Recently Russian Volunteer Corps claimed they, acting in coordination with SBU counter-intelligence, have sneaked on Russian territory to launch a batch of "cardboard drones" on Kursk airfield, causing damages of five aircraft and several AD assets.

In one of previous interviews, Budanov told Ukraine operates with satellite information, having one hour of delay. In 2022 there was information Russian satellite recon, can maintain situation information with 24 hours delay

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Correspondingly, launched one attack south of Vuhledar, reportedly recovering one village there.

Pure fantasy. If he meant some changes on DeepState map near Shevchenko village, owners of this source told they got permission to reflect this changes only now, though this territory turned back over UKR control much earlier. 

During hard battles DeepState can renew map with very big delay, due to OpSec

[Teufel]

Not sure if coincidences or not but these guys on the receiving end couldn’t found worse foe. Maybe everybody here are well vested in the beefs of the Sovjet Caucasus Mountains. But as reminder, Sheikh Mansur Battalion are primarily Chechen fighters that been in this since 2014. Plenty of these guys, particularly their commanders, are veterans from the first but more importantly the second Chechen wars.

As we all know Russia invaded Chechenia second time after the Dagestan war in which many Chechens fought against Russia. Here we are again, speaking of holding grudge and fighting long after conflicts conclude. Wouldn’t be surprised if enemy troops were known to the Chechen fighters and they insisted on taking this sector. POW doesn’t exist in the Chechen dictionary of these fighters, not to be confused with Tik-Tok fighters from Chechenia of today. 

 

[Teufel]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Pure fantasy. If he meant some changes on DeepState map near Shevchenko village, owners of this source told they got permission to reflect this changes only now, though this territory turned back over UKR control much earlier. 

During hard battles DeepState can renew map with very big delay, due to OpSec

I am curious to hear how you are able to call out the statement as false. It states attacks were launched “south of Vuhledar”, without specifying location or name, yes, makes it less credible than if had specified. Keeping with offering public information, where does your come from that rejects such statements? Not calling your statement wrong or defending his, just asking for additional input than “fantasy” referenced to DeepState which he may or may not reference to himself.

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Teufel said:

I am curious to hear how you are able to call out the statement as false. It states attacks were launched “south of Vuhledar”, without specifying location or name, yes, makes it less credible than if had specified. Keeping with offering public information, where does your come from that rejects such statements? Not calling your statement wrong or defending his, just asking for additional input than “fantasy” referenced to DeepState which he may or may not reference to himself.

I've stopped to read Cooper's analysis more than year ago. He is usual copywriter. Some of his statements weren' based even on RUMINT, just on his strange conclusions. He often "flows" in Ukrainian geography, toponims, units etc, what makes him not enough reliable source. 

About situation "south from Vuhledar" - if UKR forces liberated some village here, our TGs and Russians, of course, already would be post at least hints about this. All, what we have as confirmed -some advance north of Shevchenko several weeks ago and some small tactical advance on outskirts of Pavlivka and Mykilske. But no words about liberation

Edited September 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.

That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

Edited September 1, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma
typos

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.

That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

I think it will take another ten days to find out. I am leaning the same way as you are.

[Rokko]

Have there been any news from Urozhaine lately? I don't think I've heard anything from that direction since it was captured a couple of weeks ago. Are the Ukrainians still consolidating there, or fending of counter attacks?

[cesmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Have there been any news from Urozhaine lately? I don't think I've heard anything from that direction since it was captured a couple of weeks ago. Are the Ukrainians still consolidating there, or fending of counter attacks?

This is what the Ukrainian Mashovets said this morning:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1171

Quote

2. There were no special changes in the Berdyansk and Volnovakha directions , with the exception of the area with. Shelter, where the Russian command tried to "slightly" push back the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of the village. It should be understood within the framework of ensuring the withdrawal of their units to the line of the village of Priyutnoye - the village of Cherished Desire. However, it was not possible to achieve much success, but on the contrary ... it contributed to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine came close to the northern outskirts of the village ...

In my opinion, it is precisely this frontier in this direction that will soon become the place where the main efforts will be made by both sides. The units of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 349th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 247th Airborne Regiment of the enemy will have to "try" very hard to hold on to it ... Especially when the Armed Forces of Ukraine resume pressure at the junction between the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Army (OVA ) of the enemy ... in the direction of Cherished Desire - Staromlinovka.

3. In general, in the operational reserve of the command of the GV "Vostok" at the moment there are the following forces and means in order to "fend off" some breakthroughs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of an operational-tactical scale:

- and some other formation of a not entirely clear etymology called "Bashkortostan" (probably, sp MR, or msp TrV, although in this case - "radish horseradish is not sweeter") Well, also, "conditionally" enroll 2 regiments

76- th dshd - 234th and 237th ... which, we will consider, "on the road" ...

Moreover, the location of these reserves is such that they will still need some time to get to the "problematic" Tokmak direction. The vast majority is concentrated in the Volnovakha and partly in the Berdyansk direction.

As you can see, not too much. Not in volume, not in quality.

I think that within the next 5-6 days, the Russian command will be forced to make some cardinal decision regarding the situation in the Southern Operational Zone, where, at least in one of the directions (Tokmak), it has a rather serious crisis ... And I think , this will concern precisely the "search and finding" of additional forces and means from other operational directions and zones. Most likely - from the composition of the GV "Dnepr" ...

 

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/Cwpz_Ofqzhv

Actual video of the drone attack on the Pskov airbase.

[Centurian52]

57 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.

That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

ISW hasn't updated their map in a couple of days, so I'm not sure how many of the recent Ukrainian advances have actually been confirmed yet (maybe there will be a big map update today?). But they did assess earlier that the current Russian line would probably be less effective than their forward positions. The Russians committed very heavily to defending their forward positions, those forces should have been significantly degraded by that fighting, and it doesn't look like they have anything in reserve.

The Russian static defenses in this area certainly look intimidating. But as had been discussed before, static defenses are only effective when overwatched by fire. Static defenses which aren't being overwatched are more of a speed bump than an actual obstacle. So if the Russians don't have enough troops left in the area to actually man all of those defenses, then they are not going to get the full potential out of those defenses.