How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Billy Ringo]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Steve

P.S.  thanks for the observations about the tourist season.  It says a lot about the general Russian population's attitude that this war doesn't concern them.

Russians only know what is fed to them and, based on that limited and censored information, may not seem to be a real cause for concern.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Billy Ringo
grammar

[cesmonkey]

This Means War Podcast
Manoeuvre theory is in a coma
https://sites.libsyn.com/420071/manoeuvre-theory-is-in-a-coma
 

Quote

The opportunities to use manoeuvrist theory on contemporary battlefields are scarce, if they exist at all.  Professor Tony King talks to Peter about the three conditions he believes are necessary for it to be successful (movement and scale, defining will and cohesion, and delegated command). Given the geometry, topography and telemetry of today’s battlefields we would perhaps be better off educating leaders about alternatives to manoeuvrism.

 

[Sublime]

10 hours ago, Grossman said:

And in Normandy the Allies had total command of the air. The Germans had superior battlecraft and equipment, only overwhelmed by airpower. One can sense in Ukraine, the Ukrainians have superior battlecraft, and limited equipment with no command of the air, although command of the stratosphere and eyes over the territory. As with Normandy the strategy is to starve the Russian front lines of reinforcements and supplies, done through targeting with precision targeting and HMARs fire. In Normandy D-Day was June 6, July 25. The Canadians crossed the Seine on Aug 30. The abortive attempt on Hitler was July 20-44 ( we have had a revolt in Russia). Hitler was dead within a year. Normandy was the most intense battle of WW2. There is similar intensity in Ukraine, and it is costly in terms of lives. The strategists are planning for the Normandy scenario to be repeated in southern Ukraine. 

Normandy wasnt the most intense battle of WW2 by any measure whatsoever.  For example what about Stalingrad?

The Germans weren't 'only overwhelmed by airpower' either.  They did not have superior battlecraft.  Some units did better tactically.  Many did not.  Operationally and above they sucked eggs.  They had a few good units in Normandy - however the average allied unit was as good or better than the average Heer unit.

[A Canadian Cat]

38 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Let's not forget the stories of how Russian soldiers coming home from Ukraine are treated.

One possible explanation is that is the only "safe" way citizens can get out their frustrations with the war. Yelling at one solider who is now a civilian is a lot safer than joining a protest march.

 

Quote

From what I've read it's worse than how US vets were treated during the Viet Nam era. On the other hand US vets returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan were judging from my own experience, were treated very well, regardless of people's opinions on the wars themselves.

Yeah, thankfully more people seem to have learned that the political decisions about going to and conducting the war are not being made by the people who fight them. I'm glad we have done better at that recently.

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

 

The question that is bothering me is that, if we're going to be cut off from all sides here, how would 1.5-2 million civilians would be supplied here with food?

I would hope that those who are paying attention to the situation and not the propaganda, would begin to stockpile non perishable food stuffs and water instead of the vodka that those in denial might be stockpiling.

[akd]

Excerpts from pamphlet outlining Russian view of Ukrainian organization and tactics in the assault based on encounters with the UKR 23rd Mech Bde.:

 

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What we rarely see these days is something like what apparently is happening in Andriivka (south of Bakhmut) right now.  Apparently 3rd Assault Brigade is doing a simultaneous pincer attack on the village from north and south.  This is likely at least 2 reinforced companies operating at the same time towards a singular objective.  This caught my attention because it's one of the few that I've seen recently, but it is the sort of thing that I thought would be routine when this counter offensive started.

Steve

This maneuver in the USMC is called a “dual” or “double envelopment,” where you have a base of fire with two maneuver elements (generally at Company strength).It is used at the Battalion level and higher only. A Company and below will use a “single envelopment” with a base of fire and one maneuver element (Platoon or smaller). This is because coordinating two maneuver elements and the base of fire is much, much, much more complicated and difficult than a “single envelopment.”

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Twisk said:

Contextually I think it points out Russia's continued imperial existence as opposed to the U.S.'s federal one. In the U.S. someone from Florida and Washington are equal and the civilian population has internalized that. You couldn't run a war by only drafting Florida men. Politically it would be a non starter.
 

It would also be illegal in the U.S. The Legislature and Executive Branches cannot create any law or regulation that would create “two classes of Citizens.” If you want to have a Draft, it must apply to everyone equally, and don’t get started on why Women don’t have to register for Selective Service.

[Haiduk]

Next combat episode of 3rd assault brigade in two parts

Writings over the video: Call of Duty is a pathetic parody on 3rd OShB (separate assault brigade)

 

[Haiduk]

Soldier throws a grenade, but it hit the tree and ricocheted back to soldier. He had good reaction

 

 

[Haiduk]

Result of strike on Pskov airbase, from optical and SAR shots

[Centurian52]

 

11 hours ago, Grossman said:

The Germans had superior battlecraft and equipment

According to German propaganda (can't really fault you, since German propaganda pretty much dominated western historiography on WW2 through the entire Cold War, and historians have only really been starting to break it down relatively recently). But not in reality.

They definitely had a superior operational level doctrine in the early war (though the Allies generally did better than they get credit for at the tactical level). But by 1944 they didn't have the fuel to carry out their early war maneuver doctrine, and the Allies had gained considerable experience in how to conduct effective operations.

German troops in 1944 were fighting with skill and determination (though in general the quality of the average German soldier had dropped since the beginning of the war as a result of attrition, and there were some very low quality formations mixed in with the higher quality formations), but Allied troops were also generally well trained by 1944. It isn't clear that the quality of the average German soldier was significantly higher than the average Allied soldier by 1944.

Allied forces were fully motorized, while German forces were not (only the Panzer divisions and a handful of mechanized divisions were ever motorized). When Allied soldiers had to redeploy over a long distance they were always carried in trucks, while most German troops had to march on foot. Allied supplies always came in trucks, while German supplies were mostly horse-drawn.

The Allies had lots of tanks, the fuel to run them, and the spare parts to repair them. The Germans had lots of tanks, most of which couldn't be used because they didn't have enough fuel or because they were awaiting repairs (finding a German tank in the front lines by 1944 was not impossible, but they were certainly a lot rarer than they had been a few years earlier).

The Allies had a lot more radios than the Germans (the Americans had a radio in every infantry platoon, given them a degree of communication that most armies wouldn't see until the Cold War). Allied rifles, particularly the M1 Garand, but also the SMLE to a more limited extent, were generally better than German rifles (not enough G43s or Stg44s to tip the balance). German tanks, when they were working, were mostly on par with Allied tanks (most German tanks were not Tigers, and a Panzer 4 is a pretty even match for a Sherman). German machine guns were admittedly better than Allied machine guns (its hard for someone who's played CMBN to maintain otherwise, Lindybeige's stance on the issue notwithstanding). German submachineguns were about on par with Allied submachineguns (honestly not much to choose from between a Sten, an MP40, and a Thompson (they'll all pour 30 rounds out at a pretty respectable rate and do nasty things to anyone in close quarters)). As far as I know, gun for gun, German artillery was about on par with Allied artillery, but the Allies had a lot more artillery (more of which was self-propelled) and a lot more ammunition for it.

German anti-tank weapons were pretty good, probably somewhat better than Allied anti-tank weapons, but not decisively so. The 17 pounder was probably about on par with the Pak-40, while the 6 pounder was still more than adequate to deal with most German tanks. The Panzerfaust had excellent penetration and was produced in large quantities, but was inaccurate and had a short range. The Panzerschreck was certainly, tube for tube, better than the bazooka or PIAT, but there were a lot fewer of them.

Overall I just don't think the claim that the Germans were better equipped holds any water.

11 hours ago, Grossman said:

Normandy was the most intense battle of WW2

It was admittedly pretty intense. But most intense battle of WW2? I'm not sure it was even the most intense battle on the western front. It's probably possible to determine once and for all which battle was the most intense (take the casualties suffered, divide that by the number of troops involved in hundreds of thousands, divide that by the number of days the battle lasted, and see which battle had the highest number of casualties per day per 100,000 troops (I'm betting Normandy would be on the high end of the spectrum, but not the highest)). But for now it's probably sufficient to say that there were some battles on the eastern front that were definitely more intense than Normandy.

And actually I decided to do what I just described for Normandy. I found wide ranging casualty figures for the Germans, so I just did the Allies, which I found more consistent casualty figures for. Over 77 days around 2 million Allied soldiers suffered 226,000 casualties. That gives a figure of around 145 casualties per day per 100,000 soldiers (there is some rounding involved). That casualty rate is no walk in the park, but there were definitely battles with a higher rate.

[Artkin]

Kerch, Rzhev, Oder offensive, Stalingrad in particular saw full strength divisions disappear in something like 10 days.

[kimbosbread]

To further deconstruct the myth of the Germans being better, American artillery to my knowledge was significantly superior to Germans or Brits. Brits were fast to setup but inaccurate, and the Germans required precise surveys and maps so given time and preparation, were accurate. America, befitting its status as the best country of all time, needed minimal surveys and used tapes with different shell/charge/atmospheric conditions that made it easy to get fire on target fast.

[akd]

Watching latest video from 3rd Assault Brigade earlier, I was wondering how long it would be before we got video of someone intercepting and returning a thrown grenade in the air, but I did not expect that someone to be intercepting their own grenade:

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by akd

[Haiduk]

President Zelenskiy made a statement today, that new UKR misisile succesfully hit target on 700 km range. 

Oleksiy Danilov, Secrter of National Security Council has issued a video with, as claimed, the launch of this missile

Maybe the strike on Pskov could be combined - this missile + drones. Except burned and damaged planes, were hits in airfield fuel depot and also into weapon storage of 2nd Spetsnaz brigade base, deployed in Pskov along with 76th air-assault division

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Haiduk

[Centurian52]

11 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

The question that is bothering me is that, if we're going to be cut off from all sides here, how would 1.5-2 million civilians would be supplied here with food?

That's a thought that had occurred to me, and which I remember being raised by other people a few hundred pages ago. I am hoping and expecting that the Ukrainians will be able to cut off Crimea for the obvious military utility in doing so. But there is no doubt that it will make life very hard for you and everyone else who lives there.

My hope is that the Russians will run out of ammo before civilians start running out of food. For this reason the Ukrainians probably shouldn't just sit and wait for the Russians to starve once Crimea is cut off, but actively put pressure on the Russians to force them to expend lives and ammo faster than they can be replenished (some supplies and reinforcements should still be able to come in by sea even if all land routes are cut, so active pressure will probably be necessary anyway).

Whatever happens, I hope you are able to stockpile enough food to make it through.

[Haiduk]

It's claimed video from inside of M113, when it was hit by ATGM, but more likely this was a mine. No killed, but cameramen got a wound of the leg

  

 

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, Splinty said:

Let's not forget the stories of how Russian soldiers coming home from Ukraine are treated. From what I've read it's worse than how US vets were treated during the Viet Nam era. On the other hand US vets returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan were judging from my own experience, were treated very well, regardless of people's opinions on the wars themselves.

The way returning Vietnam vets were treated was really horrible. I think we have a more nuanced understanding these days. Even if we don't support the war itself, there is a broader understanding that the men and women sent to fight in it aren't to blame.

My understanding is that Soviet soldiers who returned from Afghanistan faced treatment similar to US soldiers returning from Vietnam. So Russian society went through a similar experience, and had the opportunity to draw similar lessons. But it seems that self reflection is not an area in which the Russians excel.

[Haiduk]

Scenario for a movie.

Recently Russians claimed their jets have sank four UKR RIBs near Tarkhankut. Unknown it was a fake or some grian of salt took place, but one Ukrainian soldier turned out in the sea. Our RIBs tried to resque him, but Russian jets have been flying over one by one and shooting with a guns, forcing our boats to maneuver and withdraw. When boats couldn't reach a soldier, TB2 Bayraktar was sent to find him. It has found lost in the sea by his thermal trail. When UAV found him, operators locked on the man and tracked him until next attempt of boats was successfull. The soldier was resqued after 12 hours in the sea

 

[Eddy]

Clever from the Ukrainian MOD

• Has a pop at the 'anonymous sources' talking crap
• Reminds everyone that these same sources were wrong in Feb 22
• Emphasises that the Ukrainians know what they're doing
• Reiterates the point that for Ukrainians this is an existential war  

And for once the music's not crap

Edit: Forgot they used London's Calling by The Clash recently

Edited August 31, 2023 by Eddy

[Haiduk]

93rd mech.brigade (at least their 3rd mech.battalion, due to the background song) is training assaults with CV-90. 

 

[Haiduk]

One more movie scenario

Driver ZSU
As we have taken, our stormtrooper was found, who  missed in action on 23rd of July during next assault of the village and hide there whole month in basemants. 

Fella on Bradley

This is dude from my company. I have a thread of his history as a draft. I await for "yes" from the top-brass and then I will issue this. Mykhaylo is a legend about whom the movie will be make )

In further comments Fella on Bradley told this guy have been stealing food of Russian soldiers in houses, where they were deployed, when they went to positions. He came up only in the night. Once he has collected panama of the soil and poured it out on mechanic of Russian artillery gun. 

 

[Haiduk]

Dynamic of fires in Verbove for a day by FIRMS

 

[dan/california]

I suspect The Pickle will be finally, Edit: and finely, ground relish soon, and very few people on the entire planet deserve it more. That said, the man isn't a coward.

Edited August 31, 2023 by dan/california