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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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RU mil reporter

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The situation is much more complicated than it seems. Junior private and command staff at the front for Prigozhin. More precisely, against Shoigu and [his] company. Because of the meat assaults head-on, for the lack of shells, for the stupidity of the command, for the abandoned Kherson. To roll Wagners into asphalt is to get the most powerful hit to moral of the army. And there, a full-fledged uprising is just around the corner.

As an option - to judge [in court] Prigozhin and Shoigu. The first for mutiny, the second for the failure of its own and total theft, which led to [SMO] failure, with real terms, for 15 years.

 

Edited by Grigb
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Couldn't resist:

Also, fascinating to see at least one voice on Twitter insist that the MoD will win because it has more soldiers, more tanks, more etc than Wagner. Seriously? Have people not been paying attention to the last year and a half?

Also also, looks like Wagner is going on all in and upgrading from mutinty to coup:

 

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53 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Is it just me, or do the recent video clips and still photos of Budanov look somewhat altered? @Kinophile, as someone in the business do you have a thought on what might be going on here?

I know RUsimps are trying to push the line that he and Zaluzhny were killed or injured in (separate) missile strikes and are being deepfaked to cover it up. But something just looks... off. And it isn't just this one video.

It does look a little wonked, but I think thats more an artifact of the video compression. Budanov has lately had a hair cut and shaved, and man, it does him no favours in the looks department. He's one of those guys with a weak chin who should use a beard to mask it.

Smart guy though, and he does a great job, of course. 

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12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I am back. I got suggestion that I should post short summaries only like every 30-60 minutes. If it is more convenient for everybody I can do it like this.

My opinion not count for much because I am a lurker, but personally I do not follow any social media so this is my only feed about the events outside of mainstream media. As such, for me it is fine for this one thread to go a bit faster than normal on a day when more is happening. But summaries are also fine. Mainstream media (e.g. Guardian live thread) seem to do it this way since they need more confirmation of rumor. Whatever you do, thank you for translating and sharing your thoughts.

Edited by alison
typo
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Two things seemed utterly clear to me that are not happening in Russia right now:

1: When trying to take over power through a coup/mutiny/civil uprising, always be sure to kill the current leader. AND DO NOT HESITATE!!

2: If you have an uprising, insurrection or mutiny on your hands, immediately and mercilessly try get rid of it with everything you have at your disposal. AND DO NOT HESITATE!!

 

Neither is happening, and that is the biggest mystery to me.

 

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11:04

https://t.me/zloy_zhurnalist/5377

Claim Wagnerites column toward Voronezh. Voronezh is calm but there is no military in the city.

https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10866

Nesmyan (Civilian Girkin)

Video - Heavy construction vehicles are moving toward Moscow to be used to block avenues of approach

11:08

https://t.me/dva_majors/18861

Volodin (RU parliament)

"The deputies stand for the consolidation of forces amd support the president," the speaker of the State Duma said. He noted that the Wagner fighters should be with their people and on the side of the law, protect the security of the Motherland and follow the orders of the Supreme Commander—in-chief, everything else is a betrayal.

11:08

https://t.me/rybar/48906

Rybar

Front Aviation is hitting M4 highway. Olr RU joke that eventually RU gov will bomb Voronezh to scare heinous westerners became reality.

11:13

https://t.me/rybar/48907

Rybar

And this is still playing into the hands of PMCs. We see online statements by Surovikin, Alekseev, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. We see statements from the Department of Information and Mass Communications. We see the actions and consequences of giving instructions from the leadership of the Ministry of Defense.

But we do not see the main thing — at least some attempts at dialogue with the PMCs. Maybe Gerasimov and Shoigu profess the principle "there can be no dialogue with terrorists." But in this case, this principle does not work.

The speech of the military-political leadership — not only the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but also the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — would demonstrate the flexibility of the participants in the conflict. And it could show to the doubting and rushing souls that they are, there are military leaders who are not afraid to speak out.

But for some reason there is no such thing. There are only Prigozhin's words that Gerasimov and Shoigu "ran away", "withdrew themselves [out of the situation]" and "gave criminal orders".

11:21

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12885

Fighter-bomber (VKS pilot)

Ru helicopter are flying now with one Wagnerite on board to make sure they do not fly to impropriate place. But nobody knows how he can  really understand where they are flying.

11:23

https://t.me/dva_majors/18871

Claim video from left side of the river at oil depot.

11:25

https://t.me/dva_majors/18872?single

Claim - videos of [unknown] military columns at Voronezh

11:30

https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10870

Nesmyan

Claim - video of firefigth at Voronezh. No further information

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Despite uprising, the war is going on. This night Ukraine was under most heavy airstrike for last weeks. 51 missiles were launched - 40 Kh-101/555, 2 Kalibrs, 9 Kh-22

41 missiles were shot down (40 Kh-101/555, 1 Kalibr). One interception was enough close to our house. Damned BOOOM at 3:05 of night woke us up. 

Over Kyiv were shot down more than 20 missiles. Alas, one intercepted missile hit tall 24-storey building, causing death of 3 civilians and injuring of 24

Kh-22 are targeted Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. Reportedlyu one infrasructure object was hit, one missile hit dachas, destroying several houses

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Sounds of explosions and intensive shooting probably in Voronezh oblast. Local man filming it and says "Damn, did it war begin?" After shooting became louder he says "I should run away [and used Ukrianain word "tikat' "for it - local southern-Russian dialect has many Ukrainisms], in order not being shot dead"

Also reportedly Russian aviation bombs M-4 highway with FABs in area of Boguchar, Voronezh oblast. There is large military base there of 3rd MRD elements.

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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11:34

https://t.me/milinfolive/102591

Military Informant claim - Rostov-Moscow is fully blocked now

11:34

https://t.me/militarymaps/35749

RU Nat video -

Military columns (BTR and trucks) at outskirts of Moscow

11:36

RU Nats are getting angrier  at Putin after speech

11:37

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12887

Fighter-bomber video

Claim Wagnerites column 2 km from Buturlinovka (town near Voronezh coord:50°49′30″ с. ш. 40°35′20″ в. д.)

Going to airfield. Actively use Pansirs AA. Every column has soldiers with MANPADs who is ready to shoot

Reminder AP Wagner is not official channel

  11:40

Pro-Kremlin channel discusses that Slutsky (s a Russian politician, Member of the State Duma of Russia and the current leader of the right-wing populist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia party. ) and Kadyrov are silent

11:44

RU Nats are getting angrier at RU gov lack of desire to resolve the crisis peacefully by sacrificing Shoigu and Gerasimov

11:45

https://t.me/dva_majors/18883

Claim Wagnerites passed Buturlinovka without any stops

11:45 [original 11:34]

https://t.me/rybar/48910

Rybar reports that infamous LDPR [Zhirinovsky party) party calls Putin baba (dumb, hysterical and coward woman)

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12889

Fither-bobmber claims Wagnerites were heading toward Talovo (51°07′ с. ш. 40°43′ в. д.HG north of Buturlinovka)  after Buturlinovka

11:49

Military Informer - video

Claim RU Mod units are taking positions at Oka river bridge ( 54.869308, 37.504229) at Serpukhov (town on Moscow region

11:51

Head of Tatarstan supports Putin

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3717

Kadyrov spoken - it is treason. They should be punished.

11:55

https://t.me/dva_majors/18890

Claim - Building Wagner Center [Petersburg] is under Wagnerite control but everything outside is under RU police control

Claim - Kadyrovci were ordered to disarm Wagnerites. Potentially very explosive move

Ru Nats are discussing now that only way for Putin to win this is to resolve it peacefully. Once serious fighting starts it will head toward full civil war.

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