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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Meanwhile in the country of rose pony. Russian liberal of Navalnyi "libertarian" wing says he supports Prigizhyn:

"Prigozhyn will not has any political steadiness. Let he do own job, we will win elections from him anyway. He will be forced to hold elections, he can't claim himself as tsar or vicegerent of huge country. It's a way of legitimation."

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Edited by Haiduk
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15 minutes ago, Huba said:

About 300km left till they reach Oka, this is going to be the critical moment. I wonder how well prepared are they for the contingency of bridges being blown up? If you believe reports of some Army units joining them, perhaps they might have enough forces to try to encircle the city? Forcing the river and establishing a pontoon crossing sounds really really crazy, but at this point I'm willing to believe in almost anything...

Bridges most likely are not prepared to be blown at all.

Moscow is too big o be encircled by Wagnerites even with any army units. On other hand it is too big to be fully protected by official forces as well.

There have to be alternative crossing known to locals. They are most likely undefended. 

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7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Minewhile in the country of rose pony. Russian liberal of Navalnyi "libertarian" wing says he supports Prigizhyn:

"Prigozhyn will not has any political steadiness. Let he do own job, we will win elections from him anyway. He will be forced to hold elections, he can't claim himself as tsar or vicegerent of huge country. It's a way of legitimation."

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Navalny is dumb. 

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21 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

When, when will it be, this Collapse of which you have spoken?

(Did you bring the picnic basket?)

Well it kinda looks like it has already started.  This difference between now and the previous three times is that this collapse could be strategic.  Unless Putin and Prog make nice-nice (less and less likely) or Putin can box this thing back up quickly (also kinda looking less likely) the damage this whole venture is causing is going to stick.  

The next question is “how bad?”  How uncontrollable is the fall going to be?  A little is fine as we will wind up with some new jerks to try and deal with but they likely will not want to continue the war.  A lot is bad, potentially very bad.  As in, it will not be contained to Russia, bad.

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39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Bridges most likely are not prepared to be blown at all.

Moscow is too big o be encircled by Wagnerites even with any army units. On other hand it is too big to be fully protected by official forces as well.

There have to be alternative crossing known to locals. They are most likely undefended. 

But if they simply get to Tula, or already have a foothold there, as one of your earlier posts rumoured....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/106th_Guards_Airborne_Division

Galeev is one of those dismissive of Prig's chances of taking power, but his thread on Wagner is still interesting.

The Wagnerites have deep ties to the elite RA formations that have been the worst battered in this war.

Galeev: Observers describe Wagner as a mercenary army. But the truth is: all of the Russian army is a mercenary army.  

"By the third winter, the boots wore out"

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17601

Ros guard is disarming Wagnerites in Rostov. They (Rosguard) is waiting for Chechens.

That's an unexpected development, if true.  This operation probably has been in the works for weeks, maybe months.  They have Rostov and are making progress elsewhere.  Why would they suddenly give up?  Even if there was an agreement with Putin, it should take days to develop and Wagner would stay armed until then.

I don't see Prig and his guys blinking in the face of armed resistance.  So... confused and unfortunately tied up for the next 6 hours so limited ability to check in.  Grrr.

Steve

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15:53
https://t.me/bumaznayaZmeya/33255
Putin signed law allowing to detain people for4 breaking counter-terrorist protocol for 30 days

15:54
https://t.me/olen_nn/6929
Rumor - Putin order to assassinate Prig to avoid clashes with Wagnerites. They say loyalists do not have enough forces to stop Wagnerites march toward Moscow. They have only bunch of chechns, Rosguard, police and FSB units.

15:53
https://t.me/milinfolive/102645
Photos - Wagnerite columns are still entering RU from LDPR (with tanks)
UKR Mashovets
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/943
I watched a video taken by a truck driver in the Voronezh region, who drove along a column of vaginers (approximately up to a reinforced company ..).

And it is worth saying that they are pretty well "packed" ... BMP-2, BMP-3, BTR-82A, T-72B3, T-80BV tanks, Pantsir-S1 air defense system, Strela-10M air defense system, anti-aircraft guns of the AZP-57 type... "fuel carriers", and even PRM-ki (mobile repair shops)... army trucks.

It seems that they were preparing in advance... at least, this does not give the impression of a hastily assembled "consolidated" tactical group... moreover, the reinforced air defense is also obviously not an impromptu...

15:55
https://t.me/bumaznayaZmeya/33256
Rumor - Martial law will be declared in Rostov region

15:59
https://t.me/militarymaps/35778
Bus service of the Lipetsk region with Moscow and Tula is temporarily stopped

16:00
https://t.me/bayraktar1070/1308
RU civilians start fist figting at Rostov HQ

16:05
https://t.me/horevica/12882
Repeat of footage - RU Policeman says they are going to block road with truck, remove the keys and f*ck [run] away because they are coming from south.

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Just now, Battlefront.com said:

That's an unexpected development, if true.  This operation probably has been in the works for weeks, maybe months.  They have Rostov and are making progress elsewhere.  Why would they suddenly give up?  Even if there was an agreement with Putin, it should take days to develop and Wagner would stay armed until then.

I don't see Prig and his guys blinking in the face of armed resistance.  So... confused and unfortunately tied up for the next 6 hours so limited ability to check in.  Grrr.

Steve

I am puzzled as well.

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14 hours ago, Cogust said:

But where IS Putin? Why isn't he addressing Wagner, why is only some generals doing it?

Perhaps we'll get lucky and someone will wisk Putin away for his safety and he will never be seen again.

I agree it doesn't look like Wagner will make it to the Kremlin but that doesn't mean someone else cannot take advantage of the chaos.

Everything seems fine until suddenly it's not. That is how dictatorships end.

We can hope.

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Meanwhile on frontline:

Bakhmut. UKR troops make next pause in active actions on Bakhmut flanks, Russians are throwing there more and more infantry. But instead this advance inside the city began

We have several recaptured streets in Bakhmut, we have captivities.

Several hours ago it was claimed UKR troops retook next two streets in Bakhmut

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Big explosion was heard between Urzuf and Berdiansk. Reportedly Berdiansk airport was hit, but no confirmations yet

Reportedly UKR resistance group has blown up overpass bridge through canal on southern outskirt of Dniprorudne (town of iron ore miners between Enerhodar and Vasylivka). Allegedly three bridge supports badly damaged, so movement of heavy transport through the bridge now impossible. This will affect logistic of Russian troops from Enerhodar to Vasylivka and further to Orikhiv direction.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's an unexpected development, if true.  This operation probably has been in the works for weeks, maybe months.  They have Rostov and are making progress elsewhere.  Why would they suddenly give up?  Even if there was an agreement with Putin, it should take days to develop and Wagner would stay armed until then.

I don't see Prig and his guys blinking in the face of armed resistance.  So... confused and unfortunately tied up for the next 6 hours so limited ability to check in.  Grrr.

Steve

Considering Wagner is reportedly in possession of tanks and AFVs "disarming" them sounds a bit more complicated than usual.  Sounds like one more rumor as they swirl around.

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4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Considering Wagner is reportedly in possession of tanks and AFVs "disarming" them sounds a bit more complicated than usual.  Sounds like one more rumor as they swirl around.

There are reports of Kadyrovites and some clips with vehcicles of Akhmat unit moving into Rostov, but it is worth to consider it is very small size force, overall- at this stage, Wagner is probably better armed. Even if trully willing to participate, it would take significant time for more Chechens to arrive on the scene. I wouldn't put money on them if hot confrontation would happen, too; I mean without rest of the military and airforce.

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FzY13_uWYAA6mzk?format=jpg&name=large

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672583669226110977?cxt=HHwWgoC81Yj_mrYuAAAA

So I'm wondering how quickly UA could mount a left hook above Kupiansk and unhinge the Russian armies from Svatove down to Rubizhne, liberating another large chunk of northern Luhansk.

You've got to imagine the 76th VDV paras fighting in the forests around Kreminna will withdraw, either to fight Prig or to join him. So where does that leave the rest, all but cut off from their LOCs?

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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16:12

https://t.me/Soldieroffortune777/27700

Tula region is being isolated (video could be from Moscow region)

16:22

https://t.me/Soldieroffortune777/27703

Lipetsk street, entrance to Moscow

 https://t.me/dva_majors/19081

Locals claims kadirovci are 7 km away from Rostov.

There are jokes that Kadirovci are magical creatures - they are driving to Rostov at full speed but somehow have not reached it yet.

16:24

https://t.me/dva_majors/19083

Ru Nats are discussing that Wagnerites (with tank trailers) are freely driving along main RU highways. And nobody stops them

16:25

https://t.me/bumaznayaZmeya/33257

Rostov guys called just now. I'm informing you about the situation.

They are strictly forbidden from opening fire first. The city's residents are quite friendly. They bring the guys food, drink, and smokes.

When Akhmat arrived at Rostov, they were unable to enter the city. They were halted at a checkpoint by Wagners, did not open the fire, and turned around. They settled down at location further away [from city].

Also, according to the guys' reports, Evgeny Viktorovich is in talks with...[Putin]

16:26

https://t.me/Soldieroffortune777/27707

Loyalist checkpoint at entrance to Karamzin street from Moscow Ring road (I do not think they will be able to stop Wagnerites at all)

https://t.me/dva_majors/19086

Video claim of Wagnerite column in Lipetsk region

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