How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The use of RU glided bombs, I believe, was crucial for Bakhmut. Previously, Wagnerites were helpless against the UKR's urban strongholds. However, as soon as VKS Ru Nats began gloating about the bombs, I noticed clear progress of Wagnerites in urban areas.

Without going back over the details of the 10+ months of combat there, I can think of a number of major changes that happened:

1. initially tried to secure Bakhmut through traditional Wagner "elite" light infantry work, realized they needed more resources, and secured some (mostly artillery)
2. rounded up prisoners to substitute for trained infantry that Wagner lacked.  "Zerg rushes" were the result
3. pulled in regular Russian Army units to hold the flanks so that Wagner could consolidate forces to take Bakhmut
4. renewed reliance on core Wagner units as "Zerg" supply was cut off

My point is that the battle for Bakhmut never really had any pause to it.  The Russians continued with Plan A even though it was a proven failure because Plan B wasn't available yet.  Plan B was eventually figured out and went into effect and was kept going, despite also failing, until they came up with Plan C.  Etc.

When I hear people say "Russia is learning" I really don't get it.  They really aren't.  Switching around some details, sure, but strategically they are operating the same way today as they were when this war started.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The second guy that was killed I don't think had a weapon!

They were all unarmed apart from the last guy, as far as I could see. First guy even came out of the dugout with his hands up.

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

Thats a bummer, im sure if he set up a patreon with a min goal there would be enough support to make this his job

[cesmonkey]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

I somewhat disagree that this is about what works or does not work. According to my observations, RU depleted local resources, paused, and then began to bring in portions of main reserves, pushing helis and other weapon systems (i.e. TOS) forward. Naturally, in response to the RU move, UKR stopped in several places to analyze the altered situation, consolidate and redeploy forces. But they are also pushing in other directions (Pyatikhatka).

As a result, the pause is due to a major change in the RU disposition that UKR need to reassess and react. Unfortunately, the RU change is not what we are waiting for yet. 

 

Exactly. From the start of the offensive, I am getting waaay less useful info from RU sources. They are all now like - Our glorious guys are holding against UKR human waves! UKR dead bodies are piling up but your guy report everything is fine!

Also, that's why we must be extra careful with Western media , pundits and OSINT guys now because they are getting info for the same sources which is mostly BS now. 

Look at Girkin now:

There are two issues here. Girkin, unlike in the past, unequivocally supports RU MOD claims about losses. He also lies about the significance of Pyatikhatky (it is a road to Vasilevka that opens up a route to the flank and creates the Vasilevka-Kamianke pocket). He now writes as if he is the unofficial RU MOD spokesperson.

Have Western media and various pundits realized it yet? I doubt. 

This update is not totally positive
.https://t.me/sashakots/40458

But I think either Google Translate is not understanding it well enough, or the original text is not perfectly written so that I can't grasp the full meaning.

By the way, what does BC mean as in "BC is being delivered, but there is a lot of work."

Quote

From the Orekhovsky direction from the participant

“Excalibur worked on our positions. Precise, bitch, thing. Furies in the sky have become insolent, three or four are on duty, they leave for the night and the artillery works.

The Germans stick, as before. Yesterday five BMPs were shoved into them. They say two more brigades are dragging them here. Today they pearled en masse again, unwound them again. We hold on as soon as possible. BC is being delivered, but there is a lot of work.

They gave a four-gun battery. Mobiles are fresh, it's hard to deal with them. You tell them to dig in, they perceive it as z…f. Although we break guns half a meter. And cellars, and blocked cracks - more than once saved. We have already moved three times in a week and a half. Well, there are positions prepared in advance and equipped. War teaches a lot."

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

When I hear people say "Russia is learning" I really don't get it.  They really aren't.  Switching around some details, sure, but strategically they are operating the same way today as they were when this war started

Been wondering the same thing myself.  I am guessing it is a bit of a recency effect in the face of some high profile videos of UA losses.  How is Russia learning exactly?  Laying a bunch of minefields and lackluster covering by fires is not "learning".  Pulling UA into cul de sacs and killing in detail with c-moves and dialed in fires would be "learning".  Integrated massed airpower would be "learning".  An on-wheels logistical system as opposed to exploding dumps is "learning".  Something that resembles a coherent operational/strategic missile campaign vice lobbing at apartment buildings is "learning".

The RA has not really evolved at all in this war as far as we can see - in fact it devolved.  It EW game has reportedly been upped but still a lot of UA assets in the air and no reports of widespread UA comms.  Strategy wise this is the same one they fell into last summer - dumb mass either pushing very slowly or trying to hold on while the back end that supports that mass gets mauled.

[Baneman]

6 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

By the way, what does BC mean as in "BC is being delivered, but there is a lot of work."

 

Hard to tell, but my guess is "counter battery" and they got the letters swapped. 

[Offshoot]

Some footage of the fighting for Pyatykhatky. It looks like the Russians had the kitchen sink thrown at them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14dcqru/the_liberation_of_pyatykhatky_settlement_in/

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

16 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

This update is not totally positive
.https://t.me/sashakots/40458

But I think either Google Translate is not understanding it well enough, or the original text is not perfectly written so that I can't grasp the full meaning.

By the way, what does BC mean as in "BC is being delivered, but there is a lot of work."

 

БК

Боекомплект (боевой комплект, Б/К) 

Ammunition? 

[cesmonkey]

So if Russia is pushing hard on the eastern portion of the front, does that mean their reserves are not as spent as we would hope?

https://t.me/annamaliar/860
 

Quote

Anna Painter
✔
The situation in the east is difficult now.

The enemy has raised its forces and is conducting an active offensive in the Lyman and Kupyan directions, trying to seize the initiative from us.
High activity of enemy shelling is recorded.
Hot battles continue.

The enemy does not abandon his plans to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Currently, this is the enemy's main offensive line. Therefore, he concentrated a significant number of his units in the east, in particular the airborne assault units.

Our troops act courageously in the face of the enemy's superiority in forces and means and do not allow the enemy to advance.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[landser]

The most CQ B we've seen yet.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[DesertFox]

Some new toys I guess

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Some new toys I guess

 

 

or just regular blurred missile

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

Ah, this is good news. It means they are not yet wise to our space lasers that have been hitting RU men in the nuts w low power at night to change their DNA and turn them effeminate!   Ha, stupid russians! 

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

They were all unarmed apart from the last guy, as far as I could see. First guy even came out of the dugout with his hands up.

Their hands were in front of them but I'm not sure they were surrendering.  They were rushing forward.  I think they were blindly fleeing.  If they were surrendering I'd expect them to come forward slowly.  Hard to say. 

edit: on second watch, I think you are right DesertFox.  But I think he came out too fast and w/o enough warning, having probably waited too long to decide, surprising the soldiers. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by danfrodo

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

They - do not poke RU, they are sane and intelligent people.

RU - Official statement of the Russian Defense Ministry - The US plans to deliver mosquitoes using UAVs to infect enemy [RU] troops

 

Priceless stuff Grigb.

33 minutes ago, landser said:

The most CQ B we've seen yet.

What I want to know is what was in the trench that was worth risking a SOF team for? Or at least what they thought was in it? A SOF team seems like too high value an asset to risk just to eliminate some random mobiks. 

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Some new toys I guess

 

 

It would be great if they have got another western missile working on the airplanes the Ukrainians have. Every time they get a new western munition it seems to move the needle at least a little.

[Chibot Mk IX]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

What I want to know is what was in the trench that was worth risking a SOF team for? Or at least what they thought was in it? A SOF team seems like too high value an asset to risk just to eliminate some random mobiks. 

 

the Trench looks very clean, so I guess it is in the rear. A raid to take out HQ? 

[Audgisil]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Their hands were in front of them but I'm not sure they were surrendering.  They were rushing forward.  I think they were blindly fleeing.  If they were surrendering I'd expect them to come forward slowly.  Hard to say. 

It's my understanding that surrendering is one of the most dangerous things to attempt during a firefight, likely even more so at those ranges. Those Ukrainian soldiers had less than a fraction of a second to determine if the enemy moving toward or past them are armed, carrying a grenade, attempting to engage in hand-to-hand, etc. The fact that the Ukrainian soldiers called out at one point in the video for the Russians to surrender speaks very well of them. However, this is a clear case of "when in doubt, open fire."

[DesertFox]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Their hands were in front of them but I'm not sure they were surrendering.  They were rushing forward.  I think they were blindly fleeing.  If they were surrendering I'd expect them to come forward slowly.  Hard to say. 

If you go into an enemy trench you kill everything which isn't making it very clear that it wants to surrender. This is no video game. And if you are on a command operation you don't even take prisoners if that would jeopardize the operation. Trenches look very clean. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an HQ structure somewhere back of first line.

Edited June 19, 2023 by DesertFox

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Without going back over the details of the 10+ months of combat there, I can think of a number of major changes that happened:

1. initially tried to secure Bakhmut through traditional Wagner "elite" light infantry work, realized they needed more resources, and secured some (mostly artillery)
2. rounded up prisoners to substitute for trained infantry that Wagner lacked.  "Zerg rushes" were the result
3. pulled in regular Russian Army units to hold the flanks so that Wagner could consolidate forces to take Bakhmut
4. renewed reliance on core Wagner units as "Zerg" supply was cut off

My point is that the battle for Bakhmut never really had any pause to it.  The Russians continued with Plan A even though it was a proven failure because Plan B wasn't available yet.  Plan B was eventually figured out and went into effect and was kept going, despite also failing, until they came up with Plan C.  Etc.

When I hear people say "Russia is learning" I really don't get it.  They really aren't.  Switching around some details, sure, but strategically they are operating the same way today as they were when this war started.

Steve

Yes, agree. Just added some useful bits to better understand their Bakhmut dynamics.

[DesertFox]

Left of the Dnipro, downstream the dam - they have to pay for this

 

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Audgisil said:

It's my understanding that surrendering is one of the most dangerous things to attempt during a firefight, likely even more so at those ranges. Those Ukrainian soldiers had less than a fraction of a second to determine if the enemy moving toward or past them are armed, carrying a grenade, attempting to engage in hand-to-hand, etc. The fact that the Ukrainian soldiers called out at one point in the video for the Russians to surrender speaks very well of them. However, this is a clear case of "when in doubt, open fire."

 

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Left of the Dnipro, downstream the dam - they have to pay for this

 

It is entirely possible the SF guys clearing that trench were not in a forgiving mood...

[akd]

48 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

But I think he came out too fast and w/o enough warning, having probably waited too long to decide, surprising the soldiers. 

That dude was already shot repeatedly and was either falling forward or just instinctively trying to lunge away.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

This update is not totally positive
.https://t.me/sashakots/40458

This is Alex Kots, infamous RU reporter-propagandist. Here he is talking with Putin. 

This post is RU propaganda narrative they all are spewing now.

Quote

from one of the fighters in the Orekhiv direction  

"Excalibur struck our positions a few times." Very precise [weapon]. Furies [UKR drones] in the sky are highly arrogant; three or four are on [recon] duty [at the same time], [only] departing at night, and arty continually strike [us].

As previously, the Germans [nickname for UKR] are pushing [hard]. We destroyed five BMPs yesterday. UKR is said to be dragging in two additional brigades here. Today, they pressed as a mass [of troops] again, [we] destroyed them again. We are doing our best to hold on. [We are] provided with ammunition, but there is a lot of targets to be hit as well.

We were given a four-gun battery. Mobiks are newbies, therefore things are difficult for them. When you instruct them to dig in, they interpret it as overf*ck. Despite the fact that we dig guns [into the earth] by half a meter. The dugouts and slits with cover saved us more than once. We've relocated three times in the last week and a half. It's a good thing we've previously prepared in advance positions. "War teaches you a lot."

 

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

By the way, what does BC mean as in "BC is being delivered, but there is a lot of work."

It is a unit of ammo allocated to a person or vehicle. But often (like in this case) it is just synonym for ammo. 

[dan/california]

Quote

Soldiers fighting for Ukraine in Bakhmut described a fight that ended much differently from how it began. Prisoners were not as prevalent. Instead, they said, Wagner’s professional fighters coordinated ground and artillery fire on Ukrainian positions, then quickly outflanked them using small teams.

This doesn't indicate learning so much as it indicates that the Russians were forced to commit some of their very highest value assets to the fight. I am fairly certain that at least some of those high value assets were in the multistory buildings the Ukrainians rigged to detonate as they retreated. Now facing longe serving Wagner professionals was bleeping unpleasant for the Ukrainian defenders, but attriting those very Wagner units and similarly valuable VDV units was the entire  point of the Ukrainian strategy. Those units are now far less able to act as a final operational level reserve for the Russian defenders in the South