How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Little Yoda at work.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

There are some developments in N-E sector of the front...both in Kreminna there are abnormal fires, and in Kupyanks there are some reportedly muscovite advances. But apart from Ms. Malyar statements and traces of fires, there is very little info what is happening in the north and east. Perhaps somebopdy here have better sources?

Btw. where is 1st Guard Tank Army?

 

So far there is very little information - RU claims the 76th VDV is pushing forward in that area. The Kupyansk region was where the Russians were gathering forces for a surprise operation to recover Kupyansk and compel the UKR command to frantically halt anything in the other directions and shift forces here. It was a Gerasimov Ace card to play when the UKR commit its primary forces in the other direction. 

I assumed that following the RDK raids, some troops were drawn to RU territory and the plan was abandoned.  But perhaps I was mistaken and RU did begin it today.

[UPDATE] The interesting question is that the main UKR forces have not been yet committed. So, why play the Ace card now? What do we not know?

Edited June 19, 2023 by Grigb

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

So far there is very little information - RU claims the 76th VDV is pushing forward in that area. The Kupyansk region was where the Russians were gathering forces for a surprise operation to recover Kupyansk and compel the UKR command to frantically halt anything in the other directions and shift forces here. It was a Gerasimov Ace card to play when the UKR commit its primary forces in the other direction. 

I assumed that following the RDK raids, some troops were drawn to RU territory and the plan was abandoned.  But perhaps I was mistaken and RU did begin it today.

There was some talk somewhere that some troops were moved from Kupyansk direction to deal with the RDK, but if so then it was minimal as RDK doesn't seem to be significant impacted by whatever was moved.

Either way, as you and Maciej pointed out, this isn't unexpected as we've seen rumors of a buildup for the last month or so coming from the Ukrainian side.  Obviously this was intended to distract Ukraine and divert resources away from the south.  If we knew about the buildup then I'm confident that Ukraine's senior command already took it into account.  I have never seen Ukraine pursue the Russian methodology of ignoring potential problems in hopes they go away

Let's think about what this means.

The best time for Russia to launch this attack is after Ukraine is fully committed in the south.  I have very little respect for Russian military leadership, but I will advance the notion that they do not believe Ukraine is now fully committed.  Yet they launched the attack anyway.  Either they have a different concept of timing or they launched it prematurely because the pressure in the south is already dangerous and this is the one card they have to play.  My guess is this is an act of desperation.

Steve

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The best time for Russia to launch this attack is after Ukraine is fully committed in the south.  I have very little respect for Russian military leadership, but I will advance the notion that they do not believe Ukraine is now fully committed.  Yet they launched the attack anyway.  Either they have a different concept of timing or they launched it prematurely because the pressure in the south is already dangerous and this is the one card they have to play.  My guess is this is an act of desperation.

Yeah, I am with you this one.  It could be desperation.  Or just the overall commander of that front managing to get a bunch of resources and then wants to commit them before they are taken away and sent south.    And hopefully get big reward for being an aggressive commander who is capturing ground.  Wouldn't be the first time a general in one front made self-serving decisions that de-optimize the overall war effort.

But what major strategic change could RU make w this attack?  Pushing UKR back doesn't really change anything unless it causes UKR to move reserves there, which I doubt they will do.  The terrain is good for a delaying defense, go ahead and give up some space while attritting RU forces.  And best of all these forces are not in the south.  Unbelievable that RU would launch an attack w scarce and precious mobile forces that would actually not capture anything useful. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Some footage of the fighting for Pyatykhatky. It looks like the Russians had the kitchen sink thrown at them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14dcqru/the_liberation_of_pyatykhatky_settlement_in/

 

At the end of the video you can see victorious Ukrainians standing on the flag.  This is where the South Ossetian battalion was "wiped out" and the commander (or assistant?) mourned by hometown propaganda.  Here is a reminder about the report of destruction that both sides made note of:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Ukraine_above_all/comments/14dd02r/ukraine_пиндюлина_в_пятихатках_орков_выбили_с/

Steve

[Huba]

Before/ after video of the ammo dump that got Storm Shadowed in Rikove. Obliterated area is about 300 x 500 meters:

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Huba

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Haiduk]

"Avenger" of 1129th SAM regiment of Operative Command "North". Inetersting, Operative Command SAM regiments were armed with OSA-AKM, so "Avanger" is obvious downgrading of capabilities, if it just not additionsl equipmnet for regiments.

In comments one man told one "Avanger" of this regiment already was lost from "Lancet" hit, both crewmen were KIA. 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Strela-10 still in action. This one of 92nd mech.brigade destroyed ZALA UAV

 

[DesertFox]

Mosquitos vs moskovites...could make for an interesting Quentin Tarantino flic...

 

[Haiduk]

Macron made a statement that SAMP/T already deployed and operational in Ukraine

Macron annuncia che i missili Samp-T sono a Kiev. È un sistema di difesa terra-aria a medio raggio di fabbricazione franco-italiana

https://www.rainews.it/maratona/2023/06/guerra-in-ucraina-la-cronaca-minuto-per-minuto-giorno-480-1fd880cc-b262-4391-90c8-dbf8e633b985.html#087e89d0-5470-4465-be68-800b5d177da4

Edited June 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

About the video with trench shooting. UKR SOF are from 73rd Maritimne Special Operation Center. Several their previous videos were from Kherson area. Probably this was their raid on left bank of Dnipro and Russians were taken by surprise. Soldiers partially in civilian closes is enough usual for relatively close rear (if high HQs inspection commitees are far away). UKR soldiers also often put on civilain outdoor snickers or even slippers if they have opportunity to give a rest for feets. Now we have +30 in shadow and Russian military boots are far from Lowa Zephyr. So you can see sometime, Russians use UKR boots from killed or captured UKR soldiers, because these boots much more ergonomical and comfortable, than Russians. So Russians just were on full relax, when UKR SOF apperared. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vacillator]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

slippers

Fighting in slippers!  Whatever works .

Edited June 19, 2023 by Vacillator

[Harmon Rabb]

37 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Mosquitos vs moskovites...could make for an interesting Quentin Tarantino flic...

 

Not sure about Tarantino, but with hits like Mega Shark Versus Giant Octopus and Sharknado under their belt. I could actually see The Asylum making that flick. 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Little Yoda at work.

 

 

The video. Other man without blure near Zaluzhnyi is lt.general Serhiy Shaptala, Chief of General Staff - "the brain" of operations. Completely not media person, but his role in this war undeservedly relegated to background.  

In 2015 Shaptala was a commander of 128th mountain-infantry brigade, which was a backbone of Debaltsevo bulge defense. When Putin has broken Minsk-2 agreements since several hours  and UKR grouping turned out in very gard situation and UKR politiacal and high military command were in full confusion (they again believed in agreements with Russians, not having Plan B), Shaptala personally with own staff in several hours developed breacktrhrough operation and took all responsibility on himself. He could withdrew all troops with relatively minimal losses in personnel.   

Edited June 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

32 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Not sure about Tarantino

Another director in the news. Brilliant to some; dumb as stump to others. 

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/us-news/platoon-director-oliver-stone-slammed-30266999

[Yet]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

There was some talk somewhere that some troops were moved from Kupyansk direction to deal with the RDK, but if so then it was minimal as RDK doesn't seem to be significant impacted by whatever was moved.

Either way, as you and Maciej pointed out, this isn't unexpected as we've seen rumors of a buildup for the last month or so coming from the Ukrainian side.  Obviously this was intended to distract Ukraine and divert resources away from the south.  If we knew about the buildup then I'm confident that Ukraine's senior command already took it into account.  I have never seen Ukraine pursue the Russian methodology of ignoring potential problems in hopes they go away

Let's think about what this means.

The best time for Russia to launch this attack is after Ukraine is fully committed in the south.  I have very little respect for Russian military leadership, but I will advance the notion that they do not believe Ukraine is now fully committed.  Yet they launched the attack anyway.  Either they have a different concept of timing or they launched it prematurely because the pressure in the south is already dangerous and this is the one card they have to play.  My guess is this is an act of desperation.

Steve

Well, assuming the best scenario for RU is a standstill. This means that anything which makes Ukr react instead of focus on the breakthrough is a good thing for RU. Attacking when every UA force is committed would only result in a small landgain here and a probable big loss in the south. Better for RU is to try and lure Ukr away from the main offensive and react elsewhere. If you dont force the opponent to make choices, it will never make bad ones. 

as long as you assume Ukr always makes the best strategical decision available- it makes every RU strategy look bad. History tells us that everywhere strategic mistakes are made sooner or later.

So i dont think it is desperation, in RU perspective it is a well thought trough strategy, which might have the desired outcome. However, as seen from the other perspective; the chances on success seem reasonably small considering that UA doesnt do warplanning like the Russians, and their recent opponents do now (or how it was done in History). 

[Haiduk]

RUMINT. During today's HIMARS strike on Volnovakha allegedly was badly wounded commander of 4th guard tank division.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Whatever obstacle Russian attack helicopters form, it appears not to be insurmountable.

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14dkrxg/ka52_still_flying_after_having_its_tail_blown_off/

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Another director in the news. Brilliant to some; dumb as stump to others. 

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/us-news/platoon-director-oliver-stone-slammed-30266999

For what is is worth, as a cinema fan I do think that Stone is a gifted director and writer. Nothing to do with my politics but I enjoyed watching Platoon, Alexander and Scarface. I do however think that Stone's pro-Putin stance is dumb. Guess that is what people mean when they speak about,separating art from the artist.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Another director in the news. Brilliant to some; dumb as stump to others. 

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/us-news/platoon-director-oliver-stone-slammed-30266999

I think he's both a brilliant director and as smart as a sack of hammers.  He reminds me of the stereotype Nobel Prize Winner who gets hit crossing the street because he didn't think to look both ways.

Segal, on the other hand, is a terrible actor and as smart as a sack of hammers.  So he's 0 for 2.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

Well, assuming the best scenario for RU is a standstill. This means that anything which makes Ukr react instead of focus on the breakthrough is a good thing for RU. Attacking when every UA force is committed would only result in a small landgain here and a probable big loss in the south. Better for RU is to try and lure Ukr away from the main offensive and react elsewhere. If you dont force the opponent to make choices, it will never make bad ones. 

I think the opposite.  By attacking now they are less assured of making progress towards Kupyansk because Ukraine has so many options to counter it.  They are also giving Ukraine an opportunity to assess how big a threat this new attack is before responding to it.  Since Ukraine was expecting this attack the answer could be "no need to worry about it, proceed with everything in the south".  Instead, if they waited for everything to be committed in the south they could have potentially pushed to, maybe even taken, Kupyansk and forced Ukraine to make a very tough decision at a really bad time.

I see no advantage to attacking now over attacking later all else being equal.  Which is why I suspect they aren't happy with what's going on in the south and have decided to attack earlier.

Steve

[JonS]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the opposite.  By attacking now they are less assured of making progress towards Kupyansk because Ukraine has so many options to counter it.  They are also giving Ukraine an opportunity to assess how big a threat this new attack is before responding to it.  Since Ukraine was expecting this attack the answer could be "no need to worry about it, proceed with everything in the south".

Essentially, "fleet in being' theory applied to land warfare

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of Russian troll messaging.  The Twitter account makes no apologies about having a pro-Russian agenda and, in fact, states that is the purpose of the account:

And another one:

And one more.  Supposedly the South Ossetian battalion that RU sources said was wiped out is alive and well and proving they weren't wiped out at Pyatikhatki by posting a video of a platoon in some random patch of woods.  Would be interesting to know what they said (roughly speaking):

Steve