How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm certain there would be a strong reaction but keep in mind that all Biden can do is order US planes to intervene. He can try to form some sort of coalition but he has no authority to command other NATO partners' air forces. Even if NATO was to somehow construct a case for article 5 here, that would still have to be ratified by every member. Which is... unlikely to happen.

So, I guess that is hard to make clear for Biden.

Biden and European leaders tried to convince Putin not to invade by spelling out very detailed consequences.  Putin didn't listen to them.  He might have learned his lesson, but I think it is better we presume he has not.

What Biden and European leaders need to do is bring in the Chinese, Indians, Egyptians, and Russia's other friendly client states into one big coalition.  If Russia causes a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, on purpose or by mistake, the impact on food prices and availability will be huge and felt most by countries Russia is trying to keep in its orbit.

That's the only thing I think that will keep Putin from doing what he is most likely currently planning on doing.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

The CBS article Maks 23 was using as a source.

Quote

About 200 Ukrainians are expected to finish U.S.-led training on Abrams tanks by the end of summer, defense officials said Wednesday. 

The end of the training program will line up roughly with the expected fall delivery of the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks the U.S. promised Ukraine earlier this year. Ukrainians are currently training in Germany with specifically-outfitted tanks as those 31 promised tanks go through refurbishment. 

The 200 Ukrainians are in week three of an expected 12-week training plan, according to two senior U.S. Army Europe and Africa officials. 

They are currently working in Germany on individual skills and then will progress to different unit skills, culminating in battalion level force on force training. 

Ukrainians expected to finish Abrams tank training by end of summer (CBS)

 

[Lethaface]

45 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This whole war happened because of unclear communication, and Putin thought he could get away with it. The red line around that nuke plant needs to be visible from nearby star systems.

AFAIK USA already made clear what would be the consequences if Russia went nuclear/chemical/biological weapon. Apart from those being 'dire', there was no further information released to the public.

 

 

[Kinophile]

Saved their lives.  Like,  Yknow,  what an IFV is SUPPOSED to do.

It's why killing a Bradley in CMBS is always a 2-Stage nightmare - (1) kill the Bradley, yay. Now,  Mr. Smarty Pants, (2)  kill the dispersed,  javelin armed and very much alive infantry that are angrily pouring out of it.

Go on.  

I'll wait. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[The_MonkeyKing]

The Tokmak axis is expanding according to the Ukrainians:

Now the infamous Bradley pile is on the Ukrainian side of the line. We have not seen Russians releasing photos where they destroy the abandoned equipment (only a couple singles). I presume most of the equipment is now on the Ukrainian side of the line and being recovered.

[Splinty]

46 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Three hundred forty meters was the max effective range that I was quoted the first time I qualified with the M16A1 in 1978. We qualified on a range with “known distance” (KD) targets. We qualified with open sights (“short and long range” rear aperture “flip sights,” and that stupid adjustable front post that you had to adjust with the point of a 5.56 round) no one had access to “optics” in those days except snipers, which could explain the difference between the two “max effective” ranges. The only rifle I qualified with from 1969 until that time was the M14, and I must say that I actually qualified with a higher M16 score (High Expert 240 out of a possible 250) than I ever did with an M14.

The maximum effective of an M16A1/2 over iron sights is 460m. That is the US Army standard. Although the longest ranged target on a pop up range was 300m.

[The_MonkeyKing]

39 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I noticed they tried to avoid the topic of F-16s until specifically asked.

I toke notice of that too. I would like to think this is because the US is doing a lot more than we think.

[sburke]

Russian soldiers reportedly looting homes in Belgorod Oblast (yahoo.com)

"They are living in our houses, leading an ugly lifestyle, leaving alcohol and other things as garbage and dirt, polluting toilets and houses, personal belongings and property are stolen,” another local resident told Meduza.

“An ATV was stolen from our garage and how it is often spotted in the vicinity.”

Reports of Russian soldiers looting Russian residences has become commonplace in Belgorod.

"We live in the village of Nova Tavolzhanka,” another social media user, claiming to a resident of the village, wrote.

“Today, on June 14, we went for the first time to check our homes. Two houses are damaged, the doors are broken in, the windows are also broken... All things inside turned upside down in search for small precious items, and a portion of them were stolen. We saw vandalism in another house: the TV set is broken, the furniture is torn up. Soldiers are obviously living in the house. We have found two bikes that were stolen earlier from our neighbors, in our yard.”

 

Alcoholism wave hits top officials and elite in Russia ‘like never before’ amidst war, media reports (yahoo.com)

 

Verstka reporters recently interviewed several sources connected to the Kremlin, the Russian parliament, and regional authorities. All these sources confirmed that a significant number of employees from government agencies, government officials, and particularly public politicians and “members of the elite” have been “getting plastered much more” over the past year.

“Governors skip meetings, and indulge in banned substances,” noted one source.

“Meetings are disrupted, and they attend events while intoxicated. Guests from Moscow used to despise excessive drinking in other regions, but now they drink like there’s no tomorrow.”

Edited June 15, 2023 by sburke

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Saved the lives.  Like,  Yknow,  what an IFV is SUPPOSED to do. It's why killing a Bradley in CMBS is always a 2-Stage op - (1) kill the Bradley, yay. Now,  Mr. Smarty Pants, (2)  kill the dispersed,  javelin armed and very much alive infantry that are angrily pouring out of it.

Go on.  

I'll wait. 

Pretty impressive. How thick is the top armour of those things? A Grad has 6.4 kilos of explosives.

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian soldiers reportedly looting homes in Belgorod Oblast (yahoo.com)

"They are living in our houses, leading an ugly lifestyle, leaving alcohol and other things as garbage and dirt, polluting toilets and houses, personal belongings and property are stolen,” another local resident told Meduza.

“An ATV was stolen from our garage and how it is often spotted in the vicinity.”

Reports of Russian soldiers looting Russian residences has become commonplace in Belgorod.

"We live in the village of Nova Tavolzhanka,” another social media user, claiming to a resident of the village, wrote.

“Today, on June 14, we went for the first time to check our homes. Two houses are damaged, the doors are broken in, the windows are also broken... All things inside turned upside down in search for small precious items, and a portion of them were stolen. We saw vandalism in another house: the TV set is broken, the furniture is torn up. Soldiers are obviously living in the house. We have found two bikes that were stolen earlier from our neighbors, in our yard.”

 

Alcoholism wave hits top officials and elite in Russia ‘like never before’ amidst war, media reports (yahoo.com)

 

Verstka reporters recently interviewed several sources connected to the Kremlin, the Russian parliament, and regional authorities. All these sources confirmed that a significant number of employees from government agencies, government officials, and particularly public politicians and “members of the elite” have been “getting plastered much more” over the past year.

“Governors skip meetings, and indulge in banned substances,” noted one source.

“Meetings are disrupted, and they attend events while intoxicated. Guests from Moscow used to despise excessive drinking in other regions, but now they drink like there’s no tomorrow.”

These soldiers are going to be in huge trouble.  They didn't send a cut of their loot to the battalion & regimental commanders.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian soldiers reportedly looting homes in Belgorod Oblast (yahoo.com)

"They are living in our houses, leading an ugly lifestyle, leaving alcohol and other things as garbage and dirt, polluting toilets and houses, personal belongings and property are stolen,” another local resident told Meduza.

“An ATV was stolen from our garage and how it is often spotted in the vicinity.”

Reports of Russian soldiers looting Russian residences has become commonplace in Belgorod.

"We live in the village of Nova Tavolzhanka,” another social media user, claiming to a resident of the village, wrote.

“Today, on June 14, we went for the first time to check our homes. Two houses are damaged, the doors are broken in, the windows are also broken... All things inside turned upside down in search for small precious items, and a portion of them were stolen. We saw vandalism in another house: the TV set is broken, the furniture is torn up. Soldiers are obviously living in the house. We have found two bikes that were stolen earlier from our neighbors, in our yard.”

 

Alcoholism wave hits top officials and elite in Russia ‘like never before’ amidst war, media reports (yahoo.com)

 

Verstka reporters recently interviewed several sources connected to the Kremlin, the Russian parliament, and regional authorities. All these sources confirmed that a significant number of employees from government agencies, government officials, and particularly public politicians and “members of the elite” have been “getting plastered much more” over the past year.

“Governors skip meetings, and indulge in banned substances,” noted one source.

“Meetings are disrupted, and they attend events while intoxicated. Guests from Moscow used to despise excessive drinking in other regions, but now they drink like there’s no tomorrow.”

The Moscow elite has learned what the utter lack of hope the regional people have always felt is like.

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Pretty impressive. How thick is the top armour of those things? A Grad has 6.4 kilos of explosives.

I believe it when I see the evidence of a direct hit. That image doesn't have that

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I believe it when I see the evidence of a direct hit. That image doesn't have that

A "direct hit" for a Grad is landing within 100m of its target   Seriously though, I think we can't take the language too seriously.  I interpreted it as the Bradley was well within the blast circumference of the Grad, not that the Grad physically impacted it.  Which is still pretty damned impressive.  Those Grads do, for sure, pack a big punch.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I believe it when I see the evidence of a direct hit. That image doesn't have that

It does have some blackening, but no fragment scratches. I'm thinking it was hit by a lancet probably.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

That's interesting. I'm not sure why they told you a different number than they told me. Either the M16s got better (difference between the A1 and A2?) or they had more experience over the decades to make a more accurate estimate of its effective range. I doubt it has anything to do with optics. Optics could extend the effective range of a rifle beyond 500 meters. Its the limitations of the human eyeball that caps the effective range of any rifle with iron sights at 500 meters. Optics couldn't explain why they were giving you an effective range of less than 500 meters.

I was firing the M16A2 with iron sights (no optics) from 2012-2018. Most of the Army had moved on to the M4 before I even joined, but I was in a signal unit so I guess there was no rush to get us M4s.

Well, since Steve has requested limiting discussing small arms, this will probably be my last response on it. In the U.S.M.C., the term “max effective range,” was (I think it still is) defined as the ”maximum range at which “any Marine,” which includes low and unqualified Marines, can be expected to “inflict a casualty on the enemy.” I don’t know how the military has defined the max effective, but is it possibly based on manufacturer sales pitch?

I actually don’t engage in “inter-service rivalry bias” when discussing TO&E. The Marine Corps and Army have two, completely different missions, and have organized and train differently based on those missions. I recognize that and adjust accordingly.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Vet 0369

[danfrodo]

So getting even more RUMINT that UKR adding more power to the 'novo' attack.  I guess first major goal would be Rozivka.  A breakthrough here, in the least defended part of the line, would nice outflank a whole lot of RU trenches.  And to stop the advance RU would have to come more or less out into the open or into villages.

Edited June 15, 2023 by danfrodo

[Harmon Rabb]

I know the full version of the press conference was already posted, but here is the part of it that a lot of people seemed to have noticed on Twitter.

 

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

• The prewar military was nothing like many in the West described it as NATO trained ext.
  • No widespread Western training, no NCO core...
• The prewar UKR military does not exist anymore

Completely disagree with these three takes. 

First two can be true if we say about 2014-2015. Further we have the same program of NATO training, a separate program of sergeant corps training. Of course, all depends from brigades command attitude and soldiers motivation to learn. Ukrainian training centers had very formal and not enough effective training program, more effective were different alternative programs, implementing with support of high command and NATO training.

But for almost five years we already had enough good sergeant corps and enough trained experienced personnel. Though, as told UKR volunteer Roman Donik, who organized alterrnative training programs for riflemen and squad leaders, combat experience without knowledges how "military machine" should work during combat, leaves this experienced serviceman not as experienced soldier, but anyway as civilian with combat experience and this is two big differences. 

"Prewar UKR military doesn't exist anymore" - we have obviously heavy losses (for Ukrianian scale) in dead and wounded among soldiers, who were in real service in 2022 and among "OR-1 first category" (retired contractors, who participated in ATO/OOS and were mobilized in first months). On 24th Feb 2022 we had only 178 000 of OR-1. How much personnel we really had on 24th Feb I can't say (according to the law about Armed Forces maximum number of pesonnel, including civilian servicemen was 246 000). I can suppose real picture was about 60 % of personnel in Ground Forces units. Taking to account that conscripts were adopting experience from servicemen and mobilized veterans, and taking to account overall number of veterans in about 250 000 at least, we can't say that now we have completely rooky army without "old blood". Again, all depends from brigades and command of brigades and batatlions, more exactly from their wish to be effective unit, or to be Soviet-style formalists, for which paper work and more valuable then effectiveness, or to be Russian-style butchers with moods "if unit has low level of losses, this means the unit fights bad" (alas, during Kherson offensive theer were reports about several battalion commanders, which boasted each before other how much of their personnel was lost during direct assaults as a sign of their "hard fight")

[Lethaface]

47 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The Tokmak axis is expanding according to the Ukrainians:

Now the infamous Bradley pile is on the Ukrainian side of the line. We have not seen Russians releasing photos where they destroy the abandoned equipment (only a couple singles). I presume most of the equipment is now on the Ukrainian side of the line and being recovered.

There was some footage of Ru soldiers close to one pile of Bradleys, I'd normally expect those to be destroyed by now but maybe the Russians couldn't be bothered about it? Let's see.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

There was some footage of Ru soldiers close to one pile of Bradleys, I'd normally expect those to be destroyed by now but maybe the Russians couldn't be bothered about it? Let's see.

Those could have been some daring scouts with fire under their buts

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Those could have been some daring scouts with fire under their buts

Agreed, but someone/something else might have done the deed. I'd like to believe some of the vehicles from those piles can be recovered and I'm sure they'll do it if possible; I'm not assuming they are now recovered because there were no pictures of their demise. There are also no pictures of their recovery yet.

[Grigb]

Map from fresh Mashovets post.

I'd want to emphasize that it appears we're in the offensive's counter-attacking phase. To avoid further penetration, RU is pulling forward reserves and increasing counter-pressure. But if RU does not roll back UKR in the following days, they most probably will have to retreat to the next line.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Any news from Belgorod? I haven't heard anything for a long time now. Nothing on ISW either. Maybe the special distraction operation has ended now that the main offensive has begun?

Nothing really interesting so far. AFAIR RU are moving units from Luhansk region. It looks like they are sacrificing their surprise offensive toward Kupaynsk to bolster defenses there. 

Mildly interesting news though is internal power struggle - looks like RU MOD is trying to grab control over the region + AFAIR Kadyrovcy are deploying there as well which is a problem for RU Nats (Chechens controlling RU city is very unpleasant for them for obvious reason) 

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Map from fresh Mashovets post.

I'd want to emphasize that it appears we're in the offensive's counter-attacking phase. To avoid further penetration, RU is pulling forward reserves and increasing counter-pressure. But if RU does not roll back UKR in the following days, they most probably will have to retreat to the next line.

It's typically for Russian style - to fight with enemy's offensive not by tough defense, but by fierce and continuos counter-attacks. Probably in such way Russian art of war understand the term "active defense". During WWII classical example tank battle near Brody in 1941.

We had seen this around Svatove and Kreminna and Russians indeed managed to "extinguish" attacking striving of UKR forces. Though, we hadn't ebough strike fists on this direction and likely afetr Balakliya operation we hadn't any resourses to continue the offensive

In the light of preparing of 36th MRB and 40th Naval infantry brigade of eastern falnk to counter attack on UKR troops, looks interesting today's official MoD statemmet that Ukrainian troops advanced on 1 km on Vuhledar direction (again, whitout naming the place) 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3rd assault brigade continues to overcome Russian defense on the way to Klishchiivka. 

This fight in dense tree-palnt is really like Vietnam-jungle %)