How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Would there be a slight propaganda / morale victory if Ukraine kept pounding one of the better Russian units until they break? The Russian bloggers already trumpet the units defending near Tokmak as heroes.

Also, how long would you need to continuously batter one of the better Russian units, well-entrenched, with somewhat disrupted supply until they break? (Longer, of course, if they are able to bring up replacements.)

I believe the 101st Airborne held out, surrounded in Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge six days until relieved.

[Der Zeitgeist]

28 minutes ago, Anon052 said:

My question to those more knowledgable than me. How many of those radars are in a single IRIS-T SLS system? One? Does the loss of the radar take the entire system out of the game?

A single IRIS-T SLM system normally contains one radar, a command van and several launchers (should be 3-4 in Ukraine's case). Ukraine received 2 systems so far (with several more in the pipeline), each with one TRML-4D radar. As far as we know, there was one additional radar delivered, with up to 6 more in the pipeline.

So they should have one spare radar at the moment.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Der Zeitgeist

[Der Zeitgeist]

[double post]

Edited June 10, 2023 by Der Zeitgeist

[Pete Wenman]

Tom Coopers thoughts - seems a reasonable summary

Quote

So, what is really going on?

Essentially, the Russians are doing to Ukrainians almost exactly the same Ukrainians did to the Russians at, for example, Vuhledar. As soon as a movement of an enemy unit is identified, reaction is:
- deployment of severe electronic warfare
- deployment of artillery against the unit in question
- deployment of additional minefields by artillery shells with cluster warheads
- 'counterattack' by attack helicopters (usually from ranges of 4000-10000m, depending on terrain and weather).

Ukrainians are countering by:
- targeting VSRF HQs and supply depots;
- targeting the movement of Russian reinforcements and supplies towards the frontline;
- targeting the Russian artillery.

Problem: ZSU still hasn't got enough artillery to suppress the VSRF artillery at least on selected points, i.e. in the areas around its routes of advance. Even if, it doesn't take the Russians more than 'few shells' to deploy a new minefield that's causing a 'carnage' as visible on this famous 'Bradley cemetry' video/photos. Notably: contrary to Russian BMPs, the Bradleys are not 'blown up', but immobilised. However, they have to be abandoned pending their recovery (or no recovery, if the zone in question cannot be secured).

On the positive side: Ukrainian artillery-deployed minefields are hampering the movement of Russian reserves in similar fashion. They're preventing Russian reinforcements and supplies from reaching forward Russian positions, too. Thus, whenever a ZSU unit manages to pass artillery-deployed minefields, it's - almost always - securing the Russian position it attacked.

The question is then that of the speed of reaction: who can bring in more firepower to bear at that point, and who can bring in more reinforcements. Whenever Ukrainian artillery fails to suppress the movement of Russian reserves and supplies, fails to suppress the Russian artillery to the necessary level, and when this is combined with the failure to bring the '2nd echelon' into the battle quickly enough, the attack fails: units withdraw. In the 3-4 cases the ZSU has managed this, though, the Russians lost positions. This is where the quality of command - and coordination between different units (mechanised and artillery forces) - is that important.

 

[Kraft]

The area in which the relatively large withdrawl of Russian units was filmed on the 4th is gray zone according to DeepState today.

Its here: 

 

[Haiduk]

Since the water level in flooded areas has been reducing, number of victims on the left, occupied, bank of Dnieper has skyrocketed. If 2 days ago were knowingly about 8 victims, now their number already about 90. And this is only in Oleshky town, which together with Kardashynka village almost completely were flooded sometime highter than roofs level. Also hard situation in Hola Prystan' town.  

UKR SOF and volunteers with high risk for life are resquing people from left bank, because Russians closed these areas and don't allow to leave nobody who don't have Russian passport. Their troops and emergency services sometime help to people for big money. But mosly they shoot at boats. Also floating in flooded area is a danger thing - two days ago two servicemen of "Femida-Chornobaivka" volunteer batatlion (probably local TD unit, gathered by "Svoboda" party) were lost, when their boat was cought by fast stream (now river stream speed has increased somewhere in 10 times) and pulled in huge wirlpool.

Reportedly most of regular Russian troops had a time to leave flooding zone, but they deployed "Shtorm-Z" convicted units to guard the left bank and many of them also drowned. There were seveal cases, when UKR soldiers resqued these convict from trees. Flooded areas now is grey zone, whith no control, but Russians periodically shell with artillery and mortars Kherson and flooded area on left bank. 

Yesterday a corps were washed ashore in Odesa, also many trash, goods, and sometime roofs and other big things with scared animals on its (dog, young deer, turtle) were found near Odesa.

On the video - woman from left bank, resqued by soldiers and volunteers, at last met own relatives in Kherson

 

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The area in which the relatively large withdrawl of Russian units was filmed on the 4th is gray zone according to DeepState today.

Its here: 

 

Looks red to me? Deepstate hasn't been updated today yet as far as I can see.

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looks red to me? Deepstate hasn't been updated today yet as far as I can see.

t.me/DeepStateUA/16810

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looks red to me? Deepstate hasn't been updated today yet as far as I can see.

Principle position of DeepState - never update the map until 100 % confirmation and 100 % holding ground. Also during UKR offensives they significantly delay updates. Mashovets writes their map now is far behind behind of scenes

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

Maybe this has been discussed before, but I can't help but be reminded of the battle of Kursk... The Germans postponed their offensive in order to wait for more, newer, and better tanks, while the Soviets used the time to dig in and construct heavily mined defensive belts.

[chuckdyke]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe this has been discussed before, but I can't help but be reminded of the battle of Kursk... The Germans postponed their offensive in order to wait for more, newer, and better tanks, while the Soviets used the time to dig in and construct heavily mined defensive belts.

The Germans introduced their tanks too early. Also they didn't have the numbers to make it work. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

27 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe this has been discussed before, but I can't help but be reminded of the battle of Kursk... The Germans postponed their offensive in order to wait for more, newer, and better tanks, while the Soviets used the time to dig in and construct heavily mined defensive belts.

There is a historical "analogy" for every agenda.

The Kursk one is not even that fitting...

[Haiduk]

Crimean "authorities" claimed two "Hrim-2" ballistic missiles were shot down this early morning in Simferopol vicinity. Locals write about one powerful explosion and one more distant. Though, some Russian bloggers claim these were S-200 missiles remade as ersatz-ballistic.

First time debrises of S-200 were found in Belgorod oblast as far as at the end of May. Former UKR politician, escaped to Russia, Oleg Tsariov told UKR still has many of S-200 missiles, but launchers and equipment already are mostly scrapped due to it's completely outdated. But probably UKR engineers in cooperation with western could adopt old missiles for ballistic launches. In this case they have a range up to 400 km. FRAG warhead was substituted on HE.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[pintere]

16 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The Germans introduced their tanks too early. Also they didn't have the numbers to make it work. 

At least on the southern part of the front, they had exactly zero divisions in reserve. The Soviets had an entire army group.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Simcoe said:

With both of those in mind. How the hell do you get through a regenerating minefield and no AA cover?

You don’t in anything except your boots and even then it is tricky.  

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe this has been discussed before, but I can't help but be reminded of the battle of Kursk... The Germans postponed their offensive in order to wait for more, newer, and better tanks, while the Soviets used the time to dig in and construct heavily mined defensive belts.

If I recall correctly,  the best equipped German spearhead divisions at Kursk, after waiting for those reinforcements, were still so depleted that by early war German metrics they would have been categorised as "unfit for combat duty"

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

Tom Coopers thoughts - seems a reasonable summary

 

I question the conclusion/deductions on RA artillery.  In all of this fuss and bother we are not seeing anywhere near the same level of indirect fires from the RA as we have in the past.  We all recall the clumps of totally destroyed RA vehicles last year as they were shattered by UA artillery, we are not seeing it here.  FASCAM is nasty stuff, it forces continual re-proving of a mined area, but traditionally there is a very limited supply of it.

While I know we are all focused on the Bradley engagement yesterday, the real question is what is happening to the RA operational system?  How hard is it being strained and how is it reacting?  

My sense is the RA is spread very thin and the UA is probing and poking to see what it can do.  We have not seen the UA main effort yet. In fact they may have not even decided where that main effort will fall. There may be weeks of UA corrosive warfare in front of them as they try and break the RA in an area.  If they are successful, I suspect the RA will then crack like an egg and collapse pretty quickly.  My sense is that operationally the RA is pretty brittle right now.  And of course they still have Wagner and Russian Free Legions to worry about in the backfield.

[Beleg85]

Somewhere near Svatove direction. Ukrainian IFV hit by cumulative charge while dismounting infantry (some riding outside). Remarkably, vehicle managed to move away from danger zone, but soldiers took casualties. Very risky way of assaulting the trenches.

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Somewhere near Svatove direction. Ukrainian IFV hit by cumulative charge while dismounting infantry (some riding outside). Remarkably, vehicle managed to move away from danger zone, but soldiers took casualties. Very risky way of assaulting the trenches.

 

Are we sure that was really UA? That had the look of a Russian operation matching similar stuff we have seen before.  Regardless is it weird.  Troops are riding because if they were inside they would likely be a lot more dead and wounded.

Context is missing here. That IFV is driving parallel to the trench lines so this may have been a rear area and a lay back tank hunting team.  Or is was a recon det but why it would stay mounted this close to enemy positions is beyond me.

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

but soldiers took casualties

Looks like no wounded, because nobody was evacuated by BMP.  HEAT charge didn't get enough fragments. I recall two Russian videos of 2014-2015, where HEAT shell of UKR tank hit ground in 1-2 meters from soldiers and only in one case caused injuries. Here even not 125 mm shell, but RPG or maybe Metis.   

[Kraft]

Quote

Wargonzo: ️Urgent️Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing a bridgehead for an attack near Velika Novoselovka️

According to sources of the @wargonzo project in the Velikonovoselovsky direction, hostilities have intensified significantly over the past two days, the degree of confrontation is growing.

We are not talking about the Velikaya Novoselovka/Ugledar line now - there, we recall, in Novodonetskoye, the enemy snatched specifically from the Kaskad OBTF and the Pacific Marines - therefore, it does not particularly twitch. The enemy is trying to advance strictly to the south of Velikaya Novoselovka - in the Neskuchny area and a little lower.

We are forced to admit that the tactical advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area is taking place, but so far it is not of a critical nature. We firmly hold the heights - the enemy has taken several positions in the lowlands, which we mercilessly pour with artillery and other firepower, not allowing the enemy to feel at least a little confident there.

Nevertheless, they are trying to use the occupied pieces of the territory (very small, we repeat) to organize a foothold for the purpose of further pushing through our defenses and moving south.

So far, the artillerymen are quite coping with the task - preventing the enemy from bringing up serious reserves and forming a striking fist. But these preventive measures are directly dependent on the amount of BC, which has unchanged properties - as we all already know from the situation as a whole - will end at some point.

We very much hope that the high command will provide adequate, and most importantly, timely logistics for the supply of ammunition. So far, there is no cause for serious concern. But this tense front-line situation, of course, should not be overlooked.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure that was really UA?

No Z/V marks on BMP and Russian TG source. So, more likely Ukrainian. Now this is usual trench assault tactic "combat taxi".

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure that was really UA? That had the look of a Russian operation matching similar stuff we have seen before.  Regardless is it weird.  Troops are riding because if they were inside they would likely be a lot more dead and wounded.

Yes, it is Russian channel.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

looks like no wounded, because nobody was evacuated by BMP.  HEAT charge didn't get enough fragments. I recall two Russian videos of 2014-2015, where HEAT shell of UKR tank hit ground in 1-2 meters from soldiers and only in one case caused injuries. Here even not 125 mm shell, but RPG or maybe Metis.   

By the video alone it looks like BMP simply rode away from danger, perhaps engine compartment was not punctured. People are crawling after hit and it is not likely they got unscatched- at least 2 are not moving at all and seems dead/incapacitated. Perhaps new videos will emerge of this event.

 

Btw. it is consistent with many account, from RU, UA and Western observers sides on how APC'/IFV are used now in position phase of the war, by both sides. Go fast and furious, drop off infantry, move away AFAP for another team, reapeat. Hope for best. This US trainer in War on The Rocks link complained exactly about this phenomena, but it is inclear if he understood that conditions in this war may force changes in doctrine.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No Z/V marks on BMP and Russian TG source. So, more likely Ukrainian. Now this is usual trench assault tactic "combat taxi".

The only way this makes sense as a trench “assault” tactic is if most trenches are empty or extremely lightly manned.  This looks more akin to trench clean up operations than front line assaults.  I suspect the RA dug a lot more holes than they can actually man if this is the case.

[Centurian52]

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

That concept has been around a while now:

https://blog.hubspot.com/sales/learning-from-failure-quotes

I agree with the concept in principle. But as a chemical engineer, I know failure can kill people. The same is true in the military context. In business there was a big push to conduct military style AARs on all projects even successful ones. The idea was to find failure even in lucrative projects and learn from it. Let's squeeze more juice from a nice ripe orange. Independent consultants made big bucks teaching the obvious. The question was sometimes asked "Should we fail so we can learn?"

Crickets.  

I think the answer to the question in your last sentence is "obviously no". But that, I believe, is where wargaming comes to the rescue. Obviously you do not want to fail in real war, because while it is very lucrative for the learning process, it is also very costly. When you fail in real war you pay for the information you gain with real lives, expensive equipment, and the strategic/operational value of the ground lost/not taken. That you may have learned a lot is a poor consolation for such losses.

But wargaming allows us to get a portion of the benefit to the learning process (the better the wargame, the higher the portion of the benefit), without having to pay any of the costs of failing in a real war. In a real war you always want to do what is most likely to work, because you always have some objective other than learning, and the costs of failure are heavy. In a wargame you can say "ok, that run went well. Let's reset the scenario and see what we can learn from this other approach that probably wouldn't have worked".

And of course not everything in the real world comes with costs for failure that are as great as those for war. While you should rarely, if ever, try to fail, perhaps there is reason to be less afraid of failure in our day to day activities (depending on how serious the costs of failure are for that specific activity).

Edit: Not to beat our own drum too much

Edited June 10, 2023 by Centurian52