How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Don't mistake what Simonyan is doing. She is as plugged in as it is possible to be with Putin's circle and clearly that circle has decided that the offensive that's starting and the resources Russia has to stop it a status quo result would be a pretty good outcome for Russia. Her job is to make that outcome seem reasonable in the domestic Russian propaganda space. Thus, the trial balloon.

So I expect we are can look forward to all the "totally not pro-Russian" mouthpieces in the western media to start up the line of "Russia is willing to have a cease fire and negotiate. Why are we supporting Ukrainian warmongers who want to keep the war going rather than have peace?"

I wonder how long it will take for similar sounding comments to start turning up all over the Web.

[TheVulture]

4 minutes ago, riptides said:

Oblast.

Is there a Tokmak oblast? I thought Tokmak was just a town in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

So I expect we are can look forward to all the "totally not pro-Russian" mouthpieces in the western media to start up the line of "Russia is willing to have a cease fire and negotiate. Why are we supporting Ukrainian warmongers who want to keep the war going rather than have peace?"

I wonder how long it will take for similar sounding comments to start turning up all over the Web.

Been there en masse since day 1 of full scale invasion, even earlier than that in not so large quantities.
Demands for Ukraine to cease resisting and get genocided were voiced by everyone from Hungary to Red Cross.

Edited June 9, 2023 by kraze

[riptides]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

So I expect we are can look forward to all the "totally not pro-Russian" mouthpieces in the western media to start up the line of "Russia is willing to have a cease fire and negotiate. Why are we supporting Ukrainian warmongers who want to keep the war going rather than have peace?"

I wonder how long it will take for similar sounding comments to start turning up all over the Web.

Well.... a negotiated cease fire on Ukraine's terms is welcome.

[Offshoot]

Ukrainian security services are claiming to have an intercepted phone call proving that the Russians blew up the Novo Kakhovka dam. If it's a real call, I think the more interesting part is that the Russians didn't intend to blow it up so badly:

"“Our saboteur group is there. They wanted to cause fear with this dam. It did not go according to the plan. More than they planned,” the speaker said."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/seismic-data-adds-evidence-ukraine-kakhovka-dam-blown-up

 

[riptides]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Is there a Tokmak oblast? I thought Tokmak was just a town in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

The Russian said oblast. Sure he is referring to the nearest town.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, riptides said:

Well.... a negotiated cease fire on Ukraine's terms is welcome.

the problem here is that there's nobody to negotiate with, no matter the terms. There are no russians that want anything else other than Ukraine gone and our people to not exist anymore.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[_Morpheus_]

2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This (second video) looks like a KA-52 hit on a Bradley. Note that the vehicle fires an ATGM just before it is hit.

 

Looks like the same column from the second video, or ?

 

[_Morpheus_]

Actually the video:

 

[panzermartin]

This destroyed column was one of the multiple spearheads in the area I suspect? . Wonder what happened to the rest, Russians keep repeating videos from this sector. 

Undoubtedly though, so far their finest battlefield moment since Feb24. 

[Kraft]

How many Leos/ Bradleys did the 47th have initially?

Was it the Ka-52 that took down those Leos/Bradleys?

Edited June 9, 2023 by Kraft

[riptides]

I think this is not the counter offensive. This is probing in strength looking for a break point.

The "numbers" of troops/vehicles in given videos and the lack of air support, anti-air support, artillery's seem to indicate formations moving /positioning around/about.

[Kraft]

1 minute ago, riptides said:

I think this is not the counter offensive. This is probing in strength looking for a break point.

The "numbers" of troops/vehicles in given videos and the lack of air support, anti-air support, artillery's seem to indicate formations moving /positioning around/about.

Why would formations moving about not need aircover, if they are in range of a chopper? This is frontline.

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, riptides said:

I think this is not the counter offensive. This is probing in strength looking for a break point.

The "numbers" of troops/vehicles in given videos and the lack of air support, anti-air support, artillery's seem to indicate formations moving /positioning around/about.

I think it is the actual counter offensive, but I don't think it will be like in WW1 where officers suddenly blow their whistles and hundreds of thousands of troops climb out of their trenches and charge forward in one big wave.

This wave is probably going to be more like those tsunamis where there's no big breaker but the water just starts rising and keeps rising.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

ISW

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

There are faithful on both sides, so this cuts both ways.

I find people who tell me the offensive has failed already because Ukraine has taken some losses and there has been no break through on day 1 about as bewildering as people from the "Ukrainians are tactical genius uber soldiers, now invincible with NATO wonder weapons, Russia already lost, lol" meme show, who now tell people how stupid they are because such things take time and sacrifice.

Deliberately exaggerating, no offence meant to anyone here.

Just because one believes in UKR doesn't mean they are blind or think UKR are uber-menshen.  THe evidence is on the side of UKR being militarily superior enough over RU to make very signicant gains this summer.  To believe RU will stop them, especially at the front lines, is willfully ignoring all the evidence.  Can UKR offensive stall, like so very many offensives do?  Yes. 

I am wondering how RU lines will hold if arty support wains.  RU wasted massive amounts of shells & gun tubes in Bakhmut, so how long can they keep up heavy fire along multiple attack axes?  Indefinitely? -- maybe but seems unlikely.  Plus UKR counterbattery is going to be hunting all of them at exactly the time when they need to be firing in support of defensive positions.  Hopefully the guns that hit that UKR column were at least repaid. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

WASHINGTON — A senior Biden administration official says that U.S. spy satellites detected an explosion at the Kakhovka dam just before it collapsed, but American analysts still do not know who caused the dam’s destruction or how exactly it happened.

The official said that satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected a heat signature consistent with a major explosion just before the dam collapsed, unleashing massive floodwaters downstream.

American intelligence analysts suspect Russia was behind the dam’s destruction, the senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. But he added that U.S. spy agencies still do not have any solid evidence about who was responsible.

 

Engineering and munitions experts have said a deliberate explosion inside the Kakhovka dam, which is controlled by Russia, most likely caused its collapse on Tuesday. They added that structural failure or an attack from outside the dam were possible but less plausible explanations.

 

 

The administration official did not rule out the possibility that prior damage to the dam or mounting water pressure might have contributed to the collapse, but American officials believe the explosion, whether deliberate or accidental, was the likely trigger.

Experts had cautioned earlier this week that the available evidence was very limited, but they said that a blast in an enclosed space, with all of its energy applied against the structure around it, would do the most damage. Even then, they said, it would require hundreds of pounds of explosives, at least, to breach the dam.

An external detonation by a bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam, and would require an explosive many times larger to achieve a similar effect.

 

[DesertFox]

Not that we really had any doubts before, but anyways

 

 

[panzermartin]

14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

ISW

Interesting the extensive and effective use of jammers by the Russians. 

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Actually the video:

 

Thanks for the vid by Rob Lee. As far as I can tell from the vid close ups, all Bradleys lost their tracks. In case of the 2A6  I can't tell. Taken with the evacuated 2A4 in the other vid which also ran on mines, this seems to be the biggest problem for the spear companies so far, which honestly is to be expected. I know, a lot of stuff we haven't seen yet, but I'm pretty sure over time we will.

[kimbosbread]

14 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Interesting the extensive and effective use of jammers by the Russians. 

The unfortunate trifecta of jamming, signal leakage and signal interference (from too many vehicles or operators) are the achilles heels of unmanned vehicles and are absolutely going to be the driver for more autonomy. This is compounded by going on offense where small drones are gonna be operating at max range and endurance.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Just because one believes in UKR doesn't mean they are blind or think UKR are uber-menshen.  THe evidence is on the side of UKR being militarily superior enough over RU to make very signicant gains this summer.  To believe RU will stop them, especially at the front lines, is willfully ignoring all the evidence.  Can UKR offensive stall, like so very many offensives do?  Yes. 

You either believe or you have evidence. If you have evidence, there is no need to believe. I was deliberately exaggerating (a bit) but there are people on both sides who ignore facts, cherry pick facts or simply make up their own facts in order to make what they observe fit what they believe. And if you are trying to analyse what is happening there is no good or bad distortion of facts.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Butschi

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Sorry about replying to this so late.

Sorry I slipped and used the single awful word. I will be more careful and remember ... 

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld

 

[Harmon Rabb]