How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Pelican Pal]

3 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

Ergo, the airframe can't be used for the mission it is designed to perform - low level CAS in contested airspace.

I don't see how this follows. Just because you have high airframe losses doesn't mean you can't fly the mission. You just need to accept that you will lose a certain percentage of aircraft/pilots that are flying that mission. Ukraine has, for months, been fighting an attritional ground campaign that no Western military would even think about fighting. Yet despite mounting losses they continue to fight it.

This bit from the linked article is useful in this context
 

Quote

One result of this was a command emphasis on aircraft and pilot survivability.  The
philosophy was "No Iraqi target was worth an allied pilot or aircraft."\30

....

Other operating decisions were also taken to increase survivability... Similarly, after A-10 attacks
on the Republican Guard, during which two aircraft were hit while operating at lower altitudes, the A-10s were ordered to cease such
attacks.  Instead, much higher altitude attacks by F-16s and B-52s, with unguided bombs, were used.  

 

[Grey_Fox]

2 minutes ago, Pelican Pal said:

Just because you have high airframe losses doesn't mean you can't fly the mission

They didn't fly the missions after a few experiments. That's the entire point. They tried, saw that the couldn't sustain those missions, and stopped doing them pretty quickly.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Grey_Fox

[Artkin]

20 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

What part of the US? I know for a fact that anyone who went around waving a swastika where I live would be shunned. Maybe people can get away with it in private circles. But definitely not in public.

For real. Enough of this absolute nonsense. You're living in a fantasy world if you think this sort of thing flies in the US. Lay off the propaganda box already.

[Pelican Pal]

Quote

They expressed little doubt of a victory.  One result of this
was a command emphasis on aircraft and pilot survivability.  The
philosophy was "No Iraqi target was worth an allied pilot or
aircraft."\30

@Grey_Fox

 

My overall point here is that contextually Ukraine is in a much different situation and has been shown repeatedly far more willing(and forced) to accept risks and losses that no Western military has since Vietnam.

Your point seems to be that if losses are incurred then it can't be done which we've seen over the last year isn't true. No western military would have sustained the casualties taken by Ukraine to liberate a geographic area the size of Kherson it would be mind boggling, but Ukraine is in a position where it must take risks and losses. So applying experience from Coalition forces in wars of choice doesn't map neatly to the Ukrainian context.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Pelican Pal

[Grey_Fox]

Just now, Pelican Pal said:

@Grey_Fox

There's no point in replying with the same quote. That isn't a gotcha you want it to be.

[Beleg85]

NYTimes citing unnamed officials again, so may have dubious views, but worth to check nonetheless:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/us/politics/ukraine-kremlin-drone-attack.html

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Artkin said:

For real. Enough of this absolute nonsense. You're living in a fantasy world if you think this sort of thing flies in the US. Lay off the propaganda box already.

 For the most part, true.  However, as a political philosopher put it (paraphrasing) the ones overtly taking on the trappings of Nazis aren't the ones to worry about.  It's the ones that believe the same stuff but don't we need to worry about.

The ex-Marine that lives down the street from me that runs round the woods with a "patriot militia" group some days while trying to get local government to enact unconstitutional local laws to keep out asylum seekers and to protect people violating Federal firearms laws.  He has spoken about the need to fear Antifa while at the same time engaging in actions to intimidate local officials from performing their jobs.  But I agree, he would likely never take down his Confederate flag and put up a Nazi one in its place.  But I keep my eye on him all the same.

Steve

[Grey_Fox]

12 minutes ago, Pelican Pal said:

Your point seems to be that if losses are incurred then it can't be done which we've seen over the last year isn't true.

Thanks for editing in a real argument.

My point is not that they can't perform the mission with **zero** losses. That would be as stupid as claiming that tanks are obsolete because they can be killed by ATGMs.

My point is that they can't sustain the mission even when pitted against limited third world air defense systems consisting of MANPADs and AAA, and would perform far far worse against a peer who has a full blown IADS.

That's why the USAF keeps trying to kill the airframe and focus resources on effective platforms like the F-35.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Grey_Fox

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

He also called Poland a "hostile" state for Russia, as it is now allegedly "engulfed in russophobic hysteria".

Unlike Ukraine, which is engulfed in Russian ultraviolent genocidal terrorism.  

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Grey_Fox said:

They didn't fly the missions after a few experiments. That's the entire point. They tried, saw that the couldn't sustain those missions, and stopped doing them pretty quickly.

Yes but this was fundamentally an expeditionary war of choice. B52s etc existed as alternatives.  Ukraine will never have such assets.

The Russian Army is and always will be vehicle centric force and the A10 is absolutely not a flying grad launcher. I certainly don't think its a God Of War or anything, but it's robust, adaptable and NATO ready.  I'm very certain the Ukrainian air force would find new and surprising ways to both Maximize its potential and add new tricks.

Coupled with a very robust AD system and capable ground forces,  I think it can add a very heavy punch at specific points. Yes some will get nailed, so what. Even if a bunch get nailed,  so what. The hole us made,  the reserves are done. Can you imagine what A10s would have done to that ridiculous convoy at the start of the War? 

The USAF doesn't want them because it's building into a 5th-6th gen force to counter China, which is 5th-ish.

Meanwhile Ukraine is at best 3rd-4th,  and so is its opponent. Cripes,  we're sending them Leo 1s and Scorpions,  for goodness sake. 

I think UKR is about to bend over the Russian in-theater AA/AD network and keep their face in the dirt for a good while. Once the Russians break in Ukraine,  that's when A10s would really amplify and enable ground ops. 

But this is all moot,  anyway. It's too late in the year for them to have effect.  

 

[Pelican Pal]

23 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

My point is not that they can't perform the mission with **zero** losses. My point is that they can't sustain the mission even when pitted against third world air defense networks, and would perform far far worse in a conflict against a peer.

What the argument turns on isn't sustainment but opportunity costs. Does Ukraine have spare pilots, is receiving these airframes going to deny them other more useful equipment from its Western partners?
 

You are saying that the airframes cannot be used when they very much could assuming the opportunity cost was worth it. Sure Ukraine would lose them fairly quickly once employed but theoretically if Ukraine were to get like 100 A-10s and had 100 spare pilots to train on them there isn't anything saying they can't use them in combat for 14-28 days until they are used up. Perhaps supporting a major push to the Azov. What you seem to fundamentally not understand is that the airframe are a resource and you can use the resource up for some battlefield result.

-----

-----


The sustainment argument is really core for any western equipment that Ukraine would potentially receive.

- Does getting an item deny them other more useful resources from their western partners?
- Do they have sufficient trained personnel, if not is there sufficient training capacity in friendly nations?

- Do they have the logistics capacity to ship them to the front along with whatever is needed to keep them in the fight until they are consumed?

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Pelican Pal

[NamEndedAllen]

44 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

What part of the US? I know for a fact that anyone who went around waving a swastika where I live would be shunned. Maybe people can get away with it in private circles. But definitely not in public.

Sadly, in many places. For years now. Here are a very few of the afaik endless list:
https://www.newsweek.com/nazi-flag-school-wake-county-north-carolina-1563635

https://richmondstandard.com/richmond/2022/03/22/swastika-laden-flag-removed-from-el-sobrante-home-amid-controversy/

https://www.columbian.com/news/2023/apr/19/la-center-residents-concerned-over-home-with-swastikas/
https://www.newsweek.com/swastika-flag-seen-display-california-state-building-1468330

https://www.businessinsider.com/nazi-flags-displayed-outside-tpusa-summit-where-trump-star-speaker-2022-7?op=1 
https://www.algemeiner.com/2022/05/10/florida-holocaust-museum-slams-swastika-flag-display-outside-disney-world/

https://abc11.com/swastika-nazi-flag-wake-county-tree/9877322/

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/swastika-displayed-in-front-of-elementary-school/

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2019/12/10/nazi-swastika-flag-near-des-moines-morris-elementary-sickens-school-district-confederate-painting/4389444002/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/oklahoma-woman-shot-back-while-trying-steal-man-s-nazi-n1232573

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Tux said:

I’m not sure we are.  People on this thread are probably more comfortable than most in accepting the kind of nuanced reality that you’re pointing out.  However that hasn’t been the narrative so far: the story has been that Wehrmacht markings on AFVs are ‘ironic jokes’ intended to mock the Russians’ labelling them as Nazis.  
 

If you’re right and this is just Ukraine’s due complement of fascists that we’re seeing (every nation has them) then that’s fine but needs to be managed to make sure their influence isn’t blown out of proportion in the minds of more ‘casual’ western viewers (so far it doesn’t seem to be moving the dial so that’s encouraging).  It’s the ‘ironic joke’ option I think people are warning against and pointing out is potentially and needlessly counterproductive.

I didn't read the last 7 days because occupied with other stuff but perhaps a fresh thought: why are people even considering stuff? I mean ideally Ukrainians shouldn't use any 'questionable' markings. Ideally there wouldn't be any people with extremist thoughts there. But the reality is different; these people also exist in Ukraine and they also fight in the war.

But they fight in their own country, against a force invading their country. 

If I my country would be invaded I'd have zero qualms about working together with neighborhood thugs against the invader. That doesn't mean I condone criminality.

What do we want to achieve? Play into Russia's cards?

Edited May 24, 2023 by Lethaface

[MSBoxer]

In my opinion, if you go to the far end of either side of the political spectrum you get nut bags who need to be watched.  Whether it is the white supremacists on the right or Antifa on the left we have groups that are ready and, in some cases, far too willing to resort to violence and intimidation to push their twisted beliefs on everyone else.

[Artkin]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 For the most part, true.  However, as a political philosopher put it (paraphrasing) the ones overtly taking on the trappings of Nazis aren't the ones to worry about.  It's the ones that believe the same stuff but don't we need to worry about.

The ex-Marine that lives down the street from me that runs round the woods with a "patriot militia" group some days while trying to get local government to enact unconstitutional local laws to keep out asylum seekers and to protect people violating Federal firearms laws.  He has spoken about the need to fear Antifa while at the same time engaging in actions to intimidate local officials from performing their jobs.  But I agree, he would likely never take down his Confederate flag and put up a Nazi one in its place.  But I keep my eye on him all the same.

Steve

There's absolutely no need to be practicing in forests unless you expect to escalate eventually. That's a crazy way of living. There are definitely lunatics out there, I don't disagree. Publicly boasting confederate flags isn't too uncommon in the US, but specifically nazi flags are. It usually doesn't last long once it's publicly scrutinized. I know I've never seen one in my state, but the coast is a different animal than the inner states. Too many people here for that to fly.

I think nazi worshipping is a bit unique since Hitler is often idolized. I grew up with a kid who was like that, but he never owned any nazi memorabilia. He was also a crazed drug addict with a real ****ed up family. I'm not sure if he's still alive. These kinds of people are not the prominent sort nor are they representative of the US population... not even a fraction.

And I can see people leaning toward the confederates given how little trust the people generally have in our government. Of course neither are solutions to whatever problems we have here.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

The cynic/sarcastic wit in me might ask, "With what, exactly?"

Dave

The best moment for a rebellion in Belarus is exactly when the Russian army is in full retreat towards Crimea, and in a blind panic. Give them another problem a thousand kilometers away. If they commit the last of their reserves to Belarus, THAT is when it needs to get spicy on the streets of Moscow. Be great moment for a 'Secession movement" in Kaliningrad, too. 

[Centurian52]

On 5/22/2023 at 10:13 AM, sross112 said:

Have their successes over the last 30 years (Georgia, Ossettia, etc) just been from swamping the problem with mass?

My understanding is that the Chechen wars and Georgia were humiliations for the Russian army. They managed to win because they were invading very tiny countries (and they actually lost the 1st Chechen war outright). But they took far heavier casualties than they should have and the Russian army was revealed to be deeply dysfunctional. Of course then they put on a good PR campaign and made a show of "reforming" their army. By 2022 the Russian army was supposed to have been completely transformed. Far superior to how it was in 2008.

The surprise wasn't so much that the Russian army was bad, but that it was still bad. It had apparently made no real improvement since 2008. Either that or everyone just forgot how bad the Russian army was in 2008 (2014 must have been a hell of a drug).

[Centurian52]

On 5/22/2023 at 10:46 AM, danfrodo said:

kinda off topic, but I wonder if BFC is planning any offensive actions now that the ground it dry?  As in new releases?  In support of UKR offensives.  There's probably lots of influential military minds in RU that would be very distracted by new CM content, just in time for UKR to strike.  (hopefully UKR military minds would show more restraint).  And the RU folks would be on the forum constantly saying that RU capabilities are being underestimated.  They could be engaged there as a further distraction from planning & events at the front.

 This would be a brilliant diversionary effort!

[poesel]

I'd like to point out that this whole 'Belgorod Republic' thing is a brilliant next step in the 'boil-the-frog' strategy. Up until now, Russian soil was safe (except for counter battery fire and small scale attacks on infrastructure). Now, another of those red lines has been crossed and nothing has happened.

I guess we'll see more of those excursions, and they will become regular enough so that Russia has to spend resources. It also means that Russian civilians will have lots of first-hand experience with the war. Another small step in destabilizing Russia.

[Centurian52]

On 5/22/2023 at 11:58 AM, sburke said:

There is no way this can be more interesting than what is going on in Belgorod.

No, but also I'm only just getting to what happened in Belgorod. I tend to fall behind on the weekends. I usually catch up on Monday, but it's been a busy week.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 For the most part, true.  However, as a political philosopher put it (paraphrasing) the ones overtly taking on the trappings of Nazis aren't the ones to worry about.  It's the ones that believe the same stuff but don't we need to worry about.

The ex-Marine that lives down the street from me that runs round the woods with a "patriot militia" group some days while trying to get local government to enact unconstitutional local laws to keep out asylum seekers and to protect people violating Federal firearms laws.  He has spoken about the need to fear Antifa while at the same time engaging in actions to intimidate local officials from performing their jobs.  But I agree, he would likely never take down his Confederate flag and put up a Nazi one in its place.  But I keep my eye on him all the same.

Steve

I saw plenty of Nazi regalia, had guys sneer at my multiracial kid, etc in the years leading up to 1/6 in DC. Sure, we are sort of fly paper for the worst people but  anyone who thinks there isn’t a virulent underground of this stuff is kidding themselves. As we saw with Teixeira, we have a legitimate insider threat from reactionary extremists and it’s a thing we have to defend ourselves against. How does this tie into this topic? Just take a look at some of the more obscure names on Russia’s latest sanctions list. 

[FancyCat]

Whats the range of the cannon on the A-10? ive only seen combat footage where the aircraft fly, fire off rockets into the air and then dip. Is this something the A-10 can perform as i dont think the cannon can be useful in any way in this conflict. What about needing to be high in the air? can the A-10 operate at the same sort of low-flying environment to not get murdered by AD?

Also, noting that yes, Ukraine has more pilots than airframes, and will suffer losses, losing trained pilots is still horribly a bad decision, and we see the effects of erosion of Russian airpower via the loss of trained personnel, that applies to Ukraine as well, i would caution against sacrificing personnel for merely destroying tanks. 

I saw recently the SU-24 is being used potentially to fire off the Storm Shadow missile: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/su-24-fencer-is-ukraines-storm-shadow-missile-carrier

On another note, didn't Putin come to power by attacking the oligarchs? i wonder if that division means Russian public still distinguish him separately from the elites of the 90s.

A account on the raid: https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/24/novaya-gazeta-europe-publishes-account-by-anonymous-participant-in-belgorod-raid

Russia is still trying to infiltrate Ukraine, including recruiting ISIS fighters and having them joining the military for Ukraine, https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/22/you-really-are-a-terrorist

Hmm, if Ukraine can leverage their combat power to turn the border regions into actual combat zones, we could see huge pressure on Russia to move trained units to defend: 

 

[kevinkin]

I see this over at Matrix; Mon May 22, 2023:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10126&t=395615

Congrats!

Maybe the RA today could be diverted thinking about and reliving the glory days. They did put the T-34 85 on parade. 

19 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

And the RU folks would be on the forum constantly saying that RU capabilities are being underestimated.  They could be engaged there as a further distraction from planning & events at the front.

 

[MikeyD]

I recall some time ago seeing a pie chart of documented attempted terrorist acts in the US since 9-11. Al Qaeda wannabes came in a distant second from the primary malefactors. Left wing organizations made up the tiniest sliver of the pie. Terrorist 'immigrant groups' didn't even make the chart due to round-off error. In some (most) circumstances 'both-sides-ism' just doesn't wash.

[Centurian52]

On 5/22/2023 at 1:50 PM, Baneman said:

If the war has proved anything, it's that NO ONE in the Russian Army plays CM !

good point