How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[beardiebloke]

 

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

If I am RU command right now, I don't know which way is up.

Not only will they need to figure out how to defeat the .. um... Russian Legion (is that what they're called?).  The usual methods will destroy these towns completely.  And what happens to the civilians?  Can they flee south to Ukraine?  Will they get across to the north without their own side shooting them?  I know there is a lot said about Russian false flag ops taking civilian lives but this wouldn't be a one-off, localised event.

[TheVulture]

23 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Is this just a raid or more of a diversionary attack prior to the main counter offensive?  If a raid the raiders would generally leave the area fairly soon.  If its a diversionary attack they might hold until Russia is forced to redeploy units to force them back across the border.  I thought I read that this raid/diversionary force had around 7000 troops with tanks and helicopters.  It will be interesting to see if it's another raid or more like a take and hold (for awhile) diversion.

If the reported forces are broadly correct, it seems too large and well equipped to be a raid  and too small to be a serious attempt to hold a significant piece of territory indefinitely,  so the implication has to be that they want to hold it just to compel Russia to assemble enough combat power to evict them,  and then get out before the counter punch lands.

[Holien]

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I strongly recommend digging into John Ganz (who Twitter suspended on the lightest of pretexts today). He explains with both excellent historical context and a sharp contemporary eye how and why vultures like Musk and Sacks are going ever more in a Völkischer direction: https://johnganz.substack.com/

Thanks super useful in trying to get my head around somethings happening in America and even here in the UK 

[Centurian52]

On 5/18/2023 at 4:53 PM, dan/california said:

So since Patriot, Iris-T, and NASSAMS, are all living up to their billing with bells on, does crossing the Dnipro start to look doable? or at least doable enough to make the Russians put a lot more men and equipment on their side of the river?

Not really. At least not more than before. Keeping in mind that the Ukrainians have apparently already established some positions across the river. I don't think Russian aircraft were ever the problem for crossing the Dnipro. I think the main problem is that it's a big dang river. Even with light Russian resistance in the area, it's not really conducive to the kind of high speed breakthrough/maneuver operations I think the Ukrainians probably want to conduct. I think we will see Ukrainian river crossing operations as part of the main counteroffensive. But I think it will be an auxiliary/exploitation effort and the main point of effort will be somewhere else.

[sross112]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putting aside the well documented Human Wave attacks with prisoners, it does seem that the majority of Russian troops are at least interested in fighting. Or at least staying in their bunkers to be killed.  They also seem to be adequately equipped with small arms, though AT weapons do seem to be in rather short supply compared to Ukraine's forces.

It also seems that the quality level of Russian units is wildly inconsistent (still).  Here's a report claiming that Russia lost 4 companies' worth of men somewhere in the south (I do not know where the Tavriia Grouping' AO is):

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403096/

Steve

The Cyclops series of videos highlights a lot of their issues. In the early ones the armored vehicles drive up well within RPG range and aren't engaged, so lack of AT assets. Then the defenders are holed up in the bunker from the beginning, not retreating to it under pressure. Their lack of security in the trench allows the attackers to get inside the trench system before they are engaged. The position was obviously originally constructed by the UA and the bunker's firing apertures are facing in the wrong direction, but no work has been done to correct it or build a new position on the opposite end of the trench to face the direction of their attackers. Then you also observe that in multiple attacks there are zero supporting fires helping them defend. So there is either an inability to communicate with supporting fires, no supporting fires available, or they are available but so slow to materialize they have no impact on the fight. 

My thoughts about them holing up in the bunkers is that they are afraid of the bomber drones. Otherwise it could be poor first line leaders, but the amount of video evidence of the drone bombers attacking them in their trenches has to be affecting their mindset. If that is the motivating factor, why aren't they building more overhead cover? Or stringing cammo netting over the top? Not a perfect solution, but knowing that the trench is occupied vs knowing exactly where everyone is and being able to accurately drop grenades on them makes it better than their current options. 

I read a good book on Pork Chop Hill not too long ago. So 70 years ago the US Army built their bunker system on that hill and connected them with fighting and communication trenches. When the NK and Chinese attacked heavily they defended from both the trenches and bunkers (bunkers were mainly for the crew served weapons). Once a section of trench was lost everyone retreated into the bunkers and had their own artillery plaster the position with air bursts. Then counter attack, clear out any survivors, and back for the next round. I bring this up because it was possible 70 years ago, but the RA seems to be unable to do these sort of coordinated actions even today. Puzzling.

Then you contrast with the videos that you see of the UA defenses. They are fighting from the trenches (forget the name of the guy that was dropping attacking Russians and hammering their BMP with RPGs while the other guy was loading and handing him whatever he needed from the bunker) and in the last Cyclops video they had indirect fires breaking up an attacking platoon before they even got started. Seems like the UA has a much better understanding and superior abilities to make war than their invaders do. 

I know we can get carried away with Russia Sucks at War stuff, but from the outside looking in it just seems like their entire system is completely broken. Have their successes over the last 30 years (Georgia, Ossettia, etc) just been from swamping the problem with mass? Just being able to overwhelm with sheer volume so they made their goals even though they had all these problems? Or has the RA actually managed to get worse over time?

[Boche]

Possible video of checkpoints being set up in Belgorod

 

https://twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1660673860956479490

[FancyCat]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660662431826300929?t=HHEjaodG8RFhCmjktBpIdQ&s=19

[sross112]

 

Too funny not to share. 

[danfrodo]

kinda off topic, but I wonder if BFC is planning any offensive actions now that the ground it dry?  As in new releases?  In support of UKR offensives.  There's probably lots of influential military minds in RU that would be very distracted by new CM content, just in time for UKR to strike.  (hopefully UKR military minds would show more restraint).  And the RU folks would be on the forum constantly saying that RU capabilities are being underestimated.  They could be engaged there as a further distraction from planning & events at the front.

[Battlefront.com]

I've been reading this thread all morning and agree with the consensus that this is a brilliant distraction from some major Ukrainian action (perhaps not the full counter offensive) in the next few days up to a week.  Having this distraction coming from "separatists" like 2014 is a really nice touch!

The challenge for Russia is to react at the appropriate scale.  Too little and the PR nightmare is likely to remain and perhaps even expand, too much and other needs unnecessarily suffer.  Yet Russia can not afford to let this incursion linger, so it will likely err on the side of overreacting instead of under.

The size of the Russian Legion is likely in the 1000 man range as previously estimated.  This is enough to cause some serious trouble and not be so easily brushed aside.  Anything less than a fairly significant counter attack force (2-3000 with armor support) could mean Russian Federation territory remaining occupied for days if not longer.

Theoretically Russia has roughly 7x as much manpower in the area to draw from, but it's not all available as much of it is deployed along the border.  Russian commanders have to be concerned that this raid might be followed up by a second one elsewhere in the same sector.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if such additional raids, though on a smaller scale, are indeed planned.  Even groups of 50 or so would be enough to cause serious PR headaches by raiding small towns and taking photos next to landmarks/signs.  Since this *IS* primarily psyops, this sort of stuff would make sense.

Will this obligate Russia to remove units from Ukraine?  Short term, I doubt it.  There's enough forces in the area to at least contain this sized incursion.  There's also bound to be a rehabilitating unit here or there that could be mustered and thrown at the problem, much the way the Germans responded to Operation Market Garden by scraping together Luftwaffe and Marine units, as well as military schools, to at least put a check on the assault.  Long term, however, Russia is going to have to rethink its border protection strategy.

Steve

P.S.  Ironic that a fairly insignificant border town in Russia might have more strategic impact on the war than Bakhmut!

[billbindc]

50 minutes ago, Holien said:

Thanks super useful in trying to get my head around somethings happening in America and even here in the UK 

Ganz is a cantankerous old man (he's 30, I think) who has read virtually everything and has an encyclopedic knowledge of the antecedents, history and current manifestations of the reactionary right. He comes from the left but his analyses are unfettered by ideological shackles. Strongly suggest everything he writes on Dreyfuss, the Second Republic and the February 1934 riots in Paris as they inform much of our current experience.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, beardiebloke said:

 

Not only will they need to figure out how to defeat the .. um... Russian Legion (is that what they're called?).  The usual methods will destroy these towns completely.  And what happens to the civilians?  Can they flee south to Ukraine?  Will they get across to the north without their own side shooting them?  I know there is a lot said about Russian false flag ops taking civilian lives but this wouldn't be a one-off, localised event.

I think those russians had about 9 years to make their decision, will figure that out somehow

[Harmon Rabb]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illia Ponomarenko and Michael Weiss owe me a new sarcasm detector! 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illia Ponomarenko and Michael Weiss owe me a new sarcasm detector! 

 

That is pure gold right there!

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 5/18/2023 at 7:00 PM, kevinkin said:

THE ONE human population on Earth

Ok, I just want to say one last thing (this has been bugging me all weekend), then I promise I won't say another word on this subject (and I'm holding myself to that, so you can retort with whatever you like and I'm not allowed to respond to it no matter what (and I know I'm right on the line here so I'm going to avoid using the g****ics word)). I think you are assigning a degree of significance to the word "population" that is not warranted. A population is any arbitrary grouping of people. It does not imply that anything significant distinguishes that grouping of people from any other grouping of people. A population could be "all students of San Diego State University", "all people who are north of 54 degrees N", "US citizens who voted in 2012", "people who did their taxes in April", or even "people currently living in Russia". It is just whatever group we are currently interested in. Think population as opposed to sample*. A sample is a (hopefully random) selection of a few members of the group, while a population is the whole group.

The arbitrariness of the word is a feature, not a bug. It is absolutely essential that grouping people into two different populations does not imply that there is any significant difference between those two populations (other than the criteria that was used to group them), since if it did it would be impossible to study whether or not there were any significant differences between two populations. The word would be nearly useless.

I hope that clears up that when I referred to multiple human populations I did not imply that humans weren't one single population (the word can be applied recursively after all).

*Ex. The sample is the 100 students of San Diego State University who responded to the survey. The population (which we hope the sample will allow us to make generalizations about) is all students of San Diego State University.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Centurian52

[Billy Ringo]

 

[Battlefront.com]

Magyar (aka "Pointer of Death") details the capture of 22 Russian soldiers, possibly from a Spetsnaz or VDV unit (judging from their smashed vehicles).  The prisoners were secured by a force of 7 scouts of the 59th Mot Brigade, currently deployed in the Pisky area (near Donetsk City). 

The video is disjointed and shows the same scene a couple of time, presumably, to help with presentation of what is happening.

Steve

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Ok, I just want to say one last thing (this has been bugging me all weekend)

There is no way this can be more interesting than what is going on in Belgorod.

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Ok, I just want to say one last thing (this has been bugging me all weekend), then I promise I won't say another word on this subject

We're 4 days on from a conversation that died its natural death.  Even on a "slow news day" it isn't a good idea to revive something that we've moved past, and this is not a slow news day.  Please either respond while the conversation is still alive or let it remain where it was.

Thanks,

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another kamikaze attack on Russian sensors.  These sorts of sensors, especially in positions like this one, would have been nearly impossible to have identified prior to cheap drones.  Before cheap drones an air or artillery strike would have been needed to take it out, and even then probably it wouldn't do more than destroy a bunch of stuff other than the sensors.  Now, with kamikaze drones, important systems like this one are now fairly easily eliminated once spotted.  Sensor systems like this are going to require a whole rethink. 

Steve

[riptides]

Ukraine MOD has done a pretty good job of keeping its card players holding their hands. This Belgorod situation strikes me as part of a much bigger plan than just the vaunted counter offensive. Surely those in the know must have something cooking, and I think it to be one of turning the wolves loose on Putin himself.

The action, the timing, THE place, and especially the force makeup, I think turns the tables as it now forces Putin to react to the political reality of fighting not only his deputies, but now his "country men" themselves.

[Haiduk]

Russian volunteers on captured during operation BTR-82A. Man, who filming is Ilya Bogdanov - Russian citizen, former border guard, who has been fighting for Ukriane since 2014 in Right Sector and passed Donetsk airport defense. After 2016 probably he retired, but now again in the battle

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Is this just a raid or more of a diversionary attack prior to the main counter offensive?  If a raid the raiders would generally leave the area fairly soon.  If its a diversionary attack they might hold until Russia is forced to redeploy units to force them back across the border.  I thought I read that this raid/diversionary force had around 7000 troops with tanks and helicopters.  It will be interesting to see if it's another raid or more like a take and hold (for awhile) diversion.

Do you know the source? 7k seems very large for this kind of operation, basically 2 brigades equivalent, while most analytics here seem to compare it more to commando raid. So rather around batalion size, maybe even less.

 

Ok, no end of this feast:

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

A couple of videos from newly liberated Russian territory:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13oya9e/russian_volunteer_corps_news_from_the_belgorod/

Steve

[beardiebloke]

53 minutes ago, kraze said:

I think those russians had about 9 years to make their decision, will figure that out somehow

Yes I agree.  I was just trying to make the point that videos on TG showing the army levelling a town with indiscriminate shelling isn't a good look.  Public opinion may not count for that much in Russia but it's still not a good look.  Kosinskoye looks like just a small group of buildings around the border crossing but Grayvoron up the road is a bit more substantial.