How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

UKR TG reports Russian armored column was struck by PARM / AT-2 mines near Andriivka village (southern flank of Bakhmut). Reportedly one T-80BV(M) was teared off by explosion, other T-80BVM and four BMPs are damaged and abandoned. 

I wounder, who made photos from the ground? 

Vehicles likely belonged to 10th tank regiment of 3rd AK, which was spotted severeal days ago near Andriivka  

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[zinz]

 

Quote

https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/pQrey953M4I

Increase of reportedly destroyed Russian artillery since the beginning of May. 

Compare that with the counteroffensive last year. 

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by zinz

[Haiduk]

Rare video of Strela-10 work. Two Russian UAVs were shot down

 

[Haiduk]

Video of yesterday or today's 3rd brigade push, some corpses of Russians, damaged and abandoned Russian BMP-2, burned pick-up

 

[Beleg85]

Nice mic drop.

Grandpa may forgot names of his children sometimes, but knows how to handle Soviets Russians. With all various quirkiness and failures of his administration, Ukrainians are very lucky real Cold War Dinosaur and not some ex-bankster is running this business.*

*And please restrain from USA inter fighting, this was just to underline active role US took in this conflict. He could give those fighters faster, though...

 

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Rumors continue to spread around the sudden disappearance of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

Being a media personality, Zaluzhny was constantly in the lenses of Ukrainian and Western media. In terms of the intensity of flickering on TV screens, it is second only to Zelensky himself.

At the same time, since May 8, no one has seen Zaluzhny. General Nayev is present at all events that require the personal participation of the Commander-in-Chief. Even at the next meeting of the heads of military departments in Ramstein, where critical for Ukraine issues of the supply of weapons and ammunition necessary for the upcoming counteroffensive were discussed, Commander-in-in-Chief Zaluzhny did not participate even online.

According to our source in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny is alive, but is in critical condition in the main military clinical hospital, where the struggle for his life continues, including with the participation of foreign specialists.

On May 8, Zaluzhny was seriously wounded while at one of the control points of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Dnipropetrovsk region, when he checked the readiness of formations and units for a counterattack.

During a missile strike on military infrastructure facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk region, this control point was hit by an accurate hit by a Russian cruise missile. As a result, a large number of high-ranking Ukrainian military personnel, including General Zaluzhny, were killed and wounded.

Information about Zaluzhny's wound is indirectly confirmed by the fact that on May 10, his wife Elena was seen approaching from Novokhospitalnaya Street to the Kiev military hospital, where she spent more than four hours.

To prevent panic among the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian servicemen, information about the serious injury and critical state of health of Zaluzhny is hidden. The Ukrainian special services are tasked to demonstrate Zaluzhny's activity in every possible way while there is a struggle for his life.

Hence the appearance in the media of all sorts of "stupid" interviews allegedly recorded recently or photos from the rest of the Commander-in-Chief in Cyprus. Agree, it's not a good time to rest, when preparations for the upcoming counteroffensive are in full swing. And the loss of Bakhmut is not a good situation either.

Link

I would not be surprised if this turned out to be true as I've also noted he's made no appearances since the Russian claim.  Not all Russian claims are pure fantasy, just most of them. This is one of the few claims Russia has made that wasn't demonstrated to be untrue either immediately or within a day or two.

What we do know is that Russians would love to have a situation where they had actionable intel and were lucky enough to hit what they aimed for.

I don't think it matters all that much.  I have faith in the Ukrainian chain of command. 

Steve

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

He could give those fighters faster, though...

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I would not be surprised if this turned out to be true as I've also noted he's made no appearances since the Russian claim.  Not all Russian claims are pure fantasy, just most of them. This is one of the few claims Russia has made that wasn't demonstrated to be untrue either immediately or within a day or two.

What we do know is that Russians would love to have a situation where they had actionable intel and were lucky enough to hit what they aimed for.

I don't think it matters all that much.  I have faith in the Ukrainian chain of command. 

Steve

It says quite a bit about Ukrainian message discipline if this is still as murky as it appears to be.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It says quite a bit about Ukrainian message discipline if this is still as murky as it appears to be.

I think it also says quite a bit about Russian messaging too.  If they were so sure they neutralized Ukraine's top military leadership, why aren't they pushing that message out every single day?  And if Russia is putting out messages like this, it shows how little penetration Russia's direct messaging has.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Who would Zaluzhny be equal to in a historical sense? Marshall. Eisenhower. MacArthur etc. Or select those from other countries. He is not in a "ceremonial" position. But is he 100% military or does he have some political ambitions?  Yamamoto's death has been considered somewhat significant. Not sure what to make of this development. 

[Battlefront.com]

Rob Lee commenting on a report that Wagner's losses were much higher in natural terrain than in the urban environment.  He suspects it is because it's much easier to move around and survive in an urban fight if you know nothing compared to largely open and mixed terrain:

There is probably something to this as it has been noted, at least since WW2, that urban terrain is an "equalizer".

Recently uploaded 3rd Assault Brigade showing a good example of why fighting in mixed terrain requires skill:

The Ukrainian squad went into a thicket and got fired upon.  They returned fire, presumably couldn't see where to target, and pulled back to explore their options.  I saw one guy with an RPG pack at the end running forward, so maybe they narrowed down their response!

Steve

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rob Lee commenting on a report that Wagner's losses were much higher in natural terrain than in the urban environment.  He suspects it is because it's much easier to move around and survive in an urban fight if you know nothing compared to largely open and mixed terrain:

There is probably something to this as it has been noted, at least since WW2, that urban terrain is an "equalizer".

Recently uploaded 3rd Assault Brigade showing a good example of why fighting in mixed terrain requires skill:

The Ukrainian squad went into a thicket and got fired upon.  They returned fire, presumably couldn't see where to target, and pulled back to explore their options.  I saw one guy with an RPG pack at the end running forward, so maybe they narrowed down their response!

Steve

Ya know how when you are playing CM & your men are in wooded area w shrubbery and you just can't believe your men can't see the bad guys?  Always frustrating.  Then I go out in the woods or see a video like above and say "oh, yeah, can't see nuthin'.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think it matters all that much.  I have faith in the Ukrainian chain of command. 

Russians today again changed own version:

- killed

- critically wounded

- first time appeared on video conference, but anyway - after serious injury %)

Zaluzhnyi is really media person and this can play evil joke with society. His probable lose or long treatment is bad thing, but not critical for army control. Operations develops HQ, heading by lieutenant-general Serhiy Shaptala, completely non-media person. But because of constant presence on TV and internet and huge popularity of Zaluzhyi, society mistakingly believes that Zaluzhyi personally control each step of army (and even some part, followers of Poroshenko believe in consipracy, that Zaluzhnyi didn't allow to Zelenskiy and Yermak to capitulate and becaus of this they want get rid of him). This faith can seriously dismoral society if with Zaluzhnyi happen something.  

Edited May 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it also says quite a bit about Russian messaging too.  If they were so sure they neutralized Ukraine's top military leadership, why aren't they pushing that message out every single day?  And if Russia is putting out messages like this, it shows how little penetration Russia's direct messaging has.

Steve

I'll remain agnostic for now. There are plenty of good reasons that Ukraine would want to Russians to believe if it's untrue, or to obscure it if it is. And of course, the commanding general of an imminent offensive isn't going to be in public if there's any chance that it might tip off the enemy its direction.

[Beleg85]

New Girkin, comenting on Bakhmut in predictable tone (autotranslate, so may be odd):

Strelkov praises the capture of Bakhmut Translation "

"" Already yesterday in "Telegram" I briefly expressed my opinion on the end of the assault of Bakhmut. But, reading the disgustingly happy comments on VKontakte, I thought that I should calmly and in detail discuss this operation, which is being cranked up in every possible way (to give the "Chef" [Prigozhin] all the "victory laurels"). So, in short. 1. After the humiliating and almost catastrophic defeats in the Kharkiv region, and then the reduction of the Kherson bridgehead under enemy pressure, and then its complete abandonment, the Armed Forces, after carrying out a partial "incomplete mobilization" (since its legal status was completely unclear and limited to conscription 250-300 thousand people and nothing more), tried during the winter campaign (which gradually turned into spring) "take revenge" on the Donbas front. Exactly and only on the Donbass (Donetsk-Lugansk) front. Because even earlier (in the spring of last year - after the "de-escalation"), the Kremlin adopted (and remains unchanged to this day) the policy of "freezing the conflict through a compromise agreement with partners." And "reaching that deal" does not even consider any offensive against so-called "Ukraine" - whatever strategic prospects it may hold. Therefore, the only thing to do is to "fight to the point of attrition" with the enemy in the Donbass in the hope that "sooner or later the partners will mature." The cretinism of this concept and its stubbornness are unique. But it is being implemented with the same grim, idiotic stubbornness with which the exact same "non-alternative Minsk agreements" have been trying for 8 years. Since the end of April last year, all offensive operations of the Russian armed forces have been carried out ONLY in Donbas. Even after capturing part of Kharkiv Oblast along the line of Seversky Donets, they did not intend to advance west from it - they pushed only south - to the most heavily fortified Slavic-Kramatorska agglomeration. With the appropriate results...

2) In other words, starting the offensive in the Donbass in the late autumn of last year, our "military strategists" again tried to solve for the political leadership the task that our senior cretins "painted" in their heads: "To completely liberate the Donbass and start negotiations with Kiev and the dear Western partners to impose the "status quo": Crimea, Donbass and the corridor to Crimea - behind us, no further claims. As you can see, this task has not been solved in seven months of bloody fighting (in many areas - for example, near Avdiivka and Mariinka, almost continuously), not even to a small extent. And the fact that Wagner - which was stocked and replenished until mid-winter this year. "However, over the months of a meat grinder, they managed to retake two small towns - Soledar and Bakhmut - all at the cost of almost completely losing their own infantry, which is the only tactical victory. Due to the complete failure of the strategic task, the capture of Bakhmut is presented as " the crowning achievement of the art of command" and "an epochal battle of world historical significance".

3. Meanwhile, as noted above, the operation as a whole ended in a strategic failure for our troops. The enemy has NOT been pushed out of the Donbass in all major directions, and in most directions it has not moved at all. During the offensive, the Russian Armed Forces used up a lot of trained manpower, exhausted almost to the bottom of stocks of weapons, equipment and ammunition necessary for further offensive operations. That's why for the last 2 months Bakhmut has been paying more and more attention - you had to achieve at least some result "for propaganda" in order to "breathe" afterwards... So if anything, we won... And yesterday we stopped at the very outskirts of Bakhmut, we barely got there - can't go on...

4. Now we have to wait for the "answer" of the opponent. Similar to the one made by the enemy in September, right after our brave generals "tormented out" the tiny village of Pisky on the outskirts of Donetsk within a month. Why do I think the enemy will attack soon? - Precisely because now he has the best chance of success. - The best strike units of the Russian armed forces are exhausted by months of fighting. Ammo reserves are minimal. If, for example, the enemy decides to attack the Donetsk Front (for example, towards Mariupol), he will be met with heavily battered and "thinned" units and reserves redeployed to Bakhmut. And if he decides to attack on the Zaporozhian front, he will not have to worry about the stability of his defense in the Slavic-Kramatorsky direction and at Avdiivka.

5. And therefore - I consider the victory at Bakhmut: a) fundamentally unnecessary ("distraction of attention to an unworthy object", I have written about it many times); b) "pyrrhic". It wasn't worth the effort and money spent on it, even remotely. I hope I am  wrong

[kevinkin]

I think the urban environment has always given survival benefits, especially to the defender. But how does a modern army place their troops on a open battlefield with few AFVs? The short answer is they are not a modern army. 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I think the urban environment has always given survival benefits, especially to the defender.

Until attacker begin to collaspse house by house with thousands of artillery shells and heavy bombs

[Haiduk]

Two UKR soldiers went at the night to no man land in 50 m from enemy positions to take a body of fallen comrade. During this task they engaged enemy patrol or next shift, coming to position and likely having advantage in NV optic killed 2 Russians and 3 wounded. 

 

[Haiduk]

Unconfirmed news for now, but already several sources wrote Su-35 was shot down and fell into the sea near Zaliznyi Port town, when approached to right bank of Dnipro to drop guided bombs. Some people say they heared our jets sound over Mykolaiv around this time

Some unclear video of this incident

   

 

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

New Girkin, comenting on Bakhmut in predictable tone (autotranslate, so may be odd):

The auto translate was pretty good, but just in case here's a pro translation from Dimitri:

As with every Girkin rant, he once again comes across as being one of the most intelligent warcriminals of the pack.  He summed up the idiocy of the whole thing and the lack of thinking ahead pretty clearly.  Where he (continually) fails to grasp reality is about the limited options Russia has.  He talks about how Russia has categorically ruled out deeper strikes into Ukraine against targets that have value.  Well, that sounds great on paper but we've seen this tried over and over again.  For the most part they have all been failures.  The one success (after the initial invasion) was clearing out the eastern side of the Donets River last summer.  However, even that one limited success petered out due to the high cost of taking what they took.  As a result of this "success" the LPR basically ceased being capable of offensive activity, for example.

Steve

 

[kevinkin]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Until attacker begin to collaspse house by house with thousands of artillery shells and heavy bombs

Yes, that is deadly. And if surrounded the defender will surrender in place avoiding excessive losses. Well, if they are sane. I guess the question is if you have limited mobility where is the best place to survive; open ground or in a concrete building? No good has come from urban warfare, so being on foot and part of light infantry might be more survivable. Food, water and ammo being equal. But not using the tactics Russia has used. 

Edited May 21, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

Reportedly new strike in Mariupol area. Nikolske town was hit with three missiles. Impacts in area of refueling station and former military enlistment office. 

 

[MOS:96B2P]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Ya know how when you are playing CM & your men are in wooded area w shrubbery and you just can't believe your men can't see the bad guys?  Always frustrating.  Then I go out in the woods or see a video like above and say "oh, yeah, can't see nuthin'.

The commander of that unit needed to hit "Alt T" on his keyboard. 

[Beleg85]

Another interview with top official, this time with Budanov. Eng. subs. Still difficult to tell what to think about this guy and his views, he is liked and recognizeable in the West but Ukrainians seem to often have much more critical opinion.

 

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Unconfirmed news for now, but already several sources wrote Su-35 was shot down and fell into the sea near Zaliznyi Port town, when approached to right bank of Dnipro to drop guided bombs. Some people say they heared our jets sound over Mykolaiv around this time

Some unclear video of this incident

   

 

Ockham's razor would say that it was the same system that was just used to down the two planes and two helicopters northeast of Kharkiv last week. Their is some indication that was a Patriot system, so either they have one for the Southern front as well, or maybe they have one the are driving around to keep the Russians guessing. It also at least possible that one of the long range NATO AAMs has been integrated onto a Ukrainian platform, and they are putting the bit about the Patriot out there as disinformation. The Russians should have been able to figure out what happened last week, right? The could just keep picking bits out of cornfields until they found some pieces of the missiles, if nothing else. If the latest one landed in the water? then either they have the radar tracks to figure it out or they don't. I am more than a little curious if the pilots ever new if they had been fired on?

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by dan/california