How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

No doubt in my mind that this "Russian legion" is being set up by the Ukrainians, and I think it's not only brilliant and bold, but a bit funny, too. I mean, using Putin's own trick against him, that must piss him off big time.

On the other hand, what if the Ukranian offensive starts, this Russian legion conquers a bigger chunk of Russian territory than anyone expected, and in desperation Putin uses a tactical nuke on them?

Both forces are small in size, perhaps not exceeding 1k soldiers total, but likely much less. RVC is just specops-sabotage group with very tight controll from SBU (and harsh physical requirments), that after previous raid reportedly overshadowed its predecessor in fame and grew slightly larger due to new volunteers coming.

All of this is just a raid, but quit fun to watch (if not the violence..).

Some cyberwarriors from UA and PL started to rate this control station on GoogleMaps. Fun reading, some comments worth to autotrnslate:

https://www.google.pl/maps/place/App+Grayvoron/@50.4336248,35.5890175,14z/data=!4m8!3m7!1s0x4127d61314203d17:0x75221bbb5ef59734!8m2!3d50.4304831!4d35.5911385!9m1!1b1!16s%2Fg%2F11j5jgmgdy

"Border guards were nice but little stiff", "pleasant countryside, but a lot of smoke", " lot of noise, but they at least they don't check your passport and queues are non-existent".

 

[Offshoot]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Some cyberwarriors from UA and PL started to rate this control station on GoogleMaps. Fun reading, some comments worth to autotrnslate:

DeepState has it marked as well - https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.4468/35.5984

[Haiduk]

The bridge over Graivoronka river in NE part of Graivoron is destroyed

Local TGs reported about UKR arty strikes in Krasnaya Yaruga and Valuyki districts, also unstable wok of cell phones and mobile internet in Belgorod oblast

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Always appropriate themes for this war.

Ok, we laughed, now get back to serious business.

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Always appropriate themes for this war.

Ok, we laughed, now get back to serious business.

Putin: how 3-day SMO is going?

Shoigu: Russians are advancing!

Putin: Where?

Shoigu: to Belgorod

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

On one hand, Ukraine does not want to saber rattle the West by attacking Russian territory, on the other hand, it is important to note the Kremlin has been doing rosy pictures of the war, sure nothing like Ukraine is invading Russia to rally the flag, except...Russia has been claiming constant victories and the near collapse of Ukraine soon...and while the rally the flag is important, Putin has been undertaking extreme care in minimizing the war's effect on Russia so I don't think there's much risk in Ukraine doing these raids.

[DesertFox]

LOL! Brilliant!

 

 

[dan/california]

 

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think some people on this thread had this listed as a serious risk for about a year now.  A Russia in free fall could definitely see Putin lobbing WMDs at his own people.  And then someone is going to get their hands on WNDs and start lobbing them at Putin.  Before you know it the damn things are swinging everywhere.

"Well so long as they stay in Russia, why do we care?"

Because they won't.

The risks are very real, but most of the good choices went away when the Russians first started shooting, and most of the rest of them when Putin turned down a very generous Ukrainian offer about a month later. There is now no choice but to break the Russian army into tiny bleeding pieces and send it home in plastic bags. I think there has always been an assumption of more control than NATO, or anybody else, could have over exactly how that shakes down.

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Brilliant!

 

 

Belgorod, Briansk and Kursk are historical lands of Ancient Rus Chernihiv Duchy and later Great Duchy of Lithuania occupied by Moskovia in 15-16 centuries ) And Belgorod was Ukrianian territory in 1918 (writing on old photo with old spelling - Belgorod (Ukraine) 1918). In this game can play together )

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Brilliant!

Now we need to find some Ukrainian Strielkov.

Never enough malcontents on the net.

[riptides]

It's getting complicated.

 

[kevinkin]

If asked how many UAVs the UA is going through, you be hard pressed to come with this number:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-10000-drone-losses/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, riptides said:

It's getting complicated.

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Rokko said:

From the RUSI publication "Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine":

Thanks!  It's my next open tab to this one, but I've not prioritized time to read it.  I think today will be the day!

8 hours ago, Rokko said:

 

Personally I do wonder that longer range (and larger) missiles like ATACMS would be the silver bullet many make it out to be, given that it would probably also be easier to shoot down, although I do suspect they might force the Russians to re-calibrate their AD network and spread their assets thinner/further out, likely at the cost of effectiveness against shorter range threats.

Building on what The_Capt wrote, I think what we're seeing is selective messaging.  Similar to what I posed coming from the commander of 3rd Assault Brigade.  There is no lying going on, but there are reasons to emphasize certain things at certain times instead of putting them into context.  For example, all the emphasis last year on how well dug in the Russians were in Kherson and how well they withstood large scale Ukraine attacks was true, but the complete opposite at Kharkiv was also true.

I also don't think that the better aspects of Russian performance are typical.  That has been the situation since the start of the war, so it's extremely difficult for me to see that changing for the better given how poorly Russia has managed its resources.  The question is if they are significant enough in the right places at the right time to make a difference.  No doubt we'll soon find out.

Steve

[Eddy]

15 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

If asked how many UAVs the UA is going through, you be hard pressed to come with this number:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-10000-drone-losses/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru

This thread is an explanation from one of the authors who came up with the 10,000 a month in the RUSI Meatgrinder report

TLDR: it's a plausible number (in the authors opinion)

Edited May 22, 2023 by Eddy

[DesertFox]

Pure gold. "Igor encourages everyone to shoot at anyone in a police uniform in Bilhorod. What could ever go wrong..."

 

 

[sburke]

Russian Deputy Minister Dies Suddenly After Slamming ‘Fascist Invasion’ of Ukraine (yahoo.com)

A senior Russian lawmaker who was reportedly critical of the invasion of Ukraine died over the weekend, the Russian government confirmed, in the latest unexpected fatality of a prominent figure since the war began.

In a statement, Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education confirmed that Deputy Science Minister Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, died on Saturday. The ministry said he “became ill” while on board a plane carrying Russian delegates home after a business trip to Cuba. The flight made an emergency landing in southern Russia but doctors couldn’t save him, the ministry added.

[DesertFox]

They rub in the salt..Ukraine is 'studying' the situation in Belgorod....

 

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Some cyberwarriors from UA and PL started to rate this control station on GoogleMaps. Fun reading, some comments worth to autotrnslate:

https://www.google.pl/maps/place/App+Grayvoron/@50.4336248,35.5890175,14z/data=!4m8!3m7!1s0x4127d61314203d17:0x75221bbb5ef59734!8m2!3d50.4304831!4d35.5911385!9m1!1b1!16s%2Fg%2F11j5jgmgdy

 

Sadly google has nuked the comments/pictures 

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

It would be difficult to find a part of the front that is more distant on exterior lines from where the big fight is likely to be and it's being done in a way that Russia, caught up in the coils of its own propaganda, cannot ignore. Somebody in Kyiv decided to demonstrate the concept of initiative in the most humiliating way possible for Moscow.

Now we need something akin to Jackson’s Valley campaign in Bryansk oblast to give the Kremlin something to chew on…

 

[danfrodo]

quick driveby, just got caught up.  Some really fun anecdotes here from various tankies, including from Adolf Musk sideman.  NATO has fallen!  The evil US global empire is destroyed!  Because Bakhmut captured by the Putin's gallant heroes!  Hard to believe people actually believe this stuff.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/22/2170641/-Ukraine-Update-The-pro-Russian-world-unconvincingly-celebrates-its-pyrrhic-victory

 

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

quick driveby, just got caught up.  Some really fun anecdotes here from various tankies, including from Adolf Musk sideman.  NATO has fallen!  The evil US global empire is destroyed!  Because Bakhmut captured by the Putin's gallant heroes!  Hard to believe people actually believe this stuff.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/22/2170641/-Ukraine-Update-The-pro-Russian-world-unconvincingly-celebrates-its-pyrrhic-victory

 

I strongly recommend digging into John Ganz (who Twitter suspended on the lightest of pretexts today). He explains with both excellent historical context and a sharp contemporary eye how and why vultures like Musk and Sacks are going ever more in a Völkischer direction: https://johnganz.substack.com/

[MOS:96B2P]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Both forces are small in size, perhaps not exceeding 1k soldiers total, but likely much less. RVC is just specops-sabotage group with very tight controll from SBU (and harsh physical requirments), that after previous raid reportedly overshadowed its predecessor in fame and grew slightly larger due to new volunteers coming.

All of this is just a raid, but quit fun to watch (if not the violence..).

Is this just a raid or more of a diversionary attack prior to the main counter offensive?  If a raid the raiders would generally leave the area fairly soon.  If its a diversionary attack they might hold until Russia is forced to redeploy units to force them back across the border.  I thought I read that this raid/diversionary force had around 7000 troops with tanks and helicopters.  It will be interesting to see if it's another raid or more like a take and hold (for awhile) diversion.

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Is this just a raid or more of a diversionary attack prior to the main counter offensive?  If a raid the raiders would generally leave the area fairly soon.  If its a diversionary attack they might hold until Russia is forced to redeploy units to force them back across the border.  I thought I read that this raid/diversionary force had around 7000 troops with tanks and helicopters.  It will be interesting to see if it's another raid or more like a take and hold (for awhile) diversion.

Whatever this incursion is, whether it's a raid or 'Tet offensive', it's certainly creating uncertainty for RU command.  If I am RU command right now, I don't know which way is up.