How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Despite that, though, in a lot of ways commie blocks are pretty great. Weirdly.

 

I gotta say, even as a youngster I was impressed by the quality of housing I stayed in my travels around Yugoslavia.  In one high rise apartment building in Ljublijana, I not only thought the apartment was pretty sweet, but the view of the Julian Alps was stunning.

As I said a few pages back, Ukraine has an amazing opportunity to make the east of the country be the envy of much of Europe.  In fact, if they do things right (and Russia is sufficiently squashed), I can see a partial fix to their declining demographics.  Not only would Ukrainians be more incentivized to stay, but who is to say people would not leave their home countries to live in a potentially beautiful and low cost member of the EU?  It wouldn't be the first time this sort of thing has happened.

Steve

[Seminole]

 

When R2D2 decides if you live or die:

https://i.imgur.com/4mv34lb.mp4

 

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine has an amazing opportunity to make the east of the country be the envy of much of Europe.

Well from a building POV, there is a lot of opportunity. Destination travel? That will take patience. They will have to model that marketing after other high value European countries. But the air raids will have to stop for years to attract others than young adventurers. Could they turn Bakhmut into a national park like Gettysburg or Antietam? Probably not. Envy of Europe other than the traditional fields of grain. Not sure about that. Ukraine is at a crossroads between East and West. Unless China, Russian, Iran et. al. completely change, Ukraine will be a frontier state. At least in all our life times. An armed camp. Israel has a travel economy based on Holy Land sites. But perhaps a South Korea model, business, Business, BUSINEES. And a DMZ. (Hate that term)

BTW, let's not name the rebuilding effort the "Blinken Plan". That sounds ridiculous. Let's go with the "Freedom plan".  

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Well from a building POV, there is a lot of opportunity. Destination travel? That will take patience. They will have to model that marketing after other high value European countries. But the air raids will have to stop for years to attract others than young adventurers. Could they turn Bakhmut into a national park like Gettysburg or Antietam? Probably not. Envy of Europe other than the traditional fields of grain. Not sure about that. Ukraine is at a crossroads between East and West. Unless China, Russian, Iran et. al. completely change, Ukraine will be a frontier state. At least in all our life times. An armed camp. Israel has a travel economy based on Holy Land sites. But perhaps a South Korea model, business, Business, BUSINEES. And a DMZ. (Hate that term)

BTW, let's not name the rebuilding effort the "Blinken Plan". That sounds ridiculous. Let's go with the "Freedom plan".  

With good planning and investment they could create quality housing that many in Europe could not afford in their home country.  Ukraine is already becoming known as a tech hub, so put up a bunch of cafes and night clubs in a walkable community with lots of greenery and bingo... everything the youngsters want

Hey, Jakarta just announced it is moving it's 10,000,000 people to a brand new location in the jungle, so rebuilding eastern Ukraine should be a "piece of piss" by comparison.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Chris_O's latest is on the pathetic state of Russia's ability to treat wounded soldiers:

 

Another example of Russia's tradition of doing something poorly and then half arsing event.  Army paramedics have 2 classes a year to do a few basic things, like set a splint.  An experienced paramedic attended one of these sessions and found the instructor didn't know how to set a splint.  And if that wasn't bad enough, others say that the trainings consisted of dressing up, posing, having some pictures taken, and then going back to wherever they came from.

The rest of the thread is just as insane.  Once again, we are looking at something that doesn't show well in a parade, therefore a much lower priority for spending.  Plus, what ever money did get allocated would just get pocketed anyway, so why bother.

One thing I hadn't though of is what the reported use of stimulates (drugs) by Russian soldiers, especially Wagnerites, does to survivability.  These sorts of drugs tend to get the blood pumping faster, which means if a soldier sprouts a leak he's going to bleed out a lot faster than someone not on drugs.  The main source for the material in the thread said that they found other reasons to not keep doing it, such as zombifying the soldiers after a few days of drugs.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/ukraine-f-16-biden-netherlands-britain.html

I mean the best time to start was a year ago. The next best time is right now. And it would be one more signal to the Russians that they have no hope at all.

 

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Chris_O's latest is on the pathetic state of Russia's ability to treat wounded soldiers:

 

Another example of Russia's tradition of doing something poorly and then half arsing event.  Army paramedics have 2 classes a year to do a few basic things, like set a splint.  An experienced paramedic attended one of these sessions and found the instructor didn't know how to set a splint.  And if that wasn't bad enough, others say that the trainings consisted of dressing up, posing, having some pictures taken, and then going back to wherever they came from.

The rest of the thread is just as insane.  Once again, we are looking at something that doesn't show well in a parade, therefore a much lower priority for spending.  Plus, what ever money did get allocated would just get pocketed anyway, so why bother.

One thing I hadn't though of is what the reported use of stimulates (drugs) by Russian soldiers, especially Wagnerites, does to survivability.  These sorts of drugs tend to get the blood pumping faster, which means if a soldier sprouts a leak he's going to bleed out a lot faster than someone not on drugs.  The main source for the material in the thread said that they found other reasons to not keep doing it, such as zombifying the soldiers after a few days of drugs.

Steve

Although this thread/article would seem fix the hope problem, utterly, completely, and forever.

[Battlefront.com]

Bunch of stuff:

1.  Mark Hertling offers some views on why the Ukrainian counter offensive is "taking so long" to start.  No paywall:

https://archive.ph/2023.05.16-170513/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/15/ukraine-counteroffensive-timing-success/

2.  Long article detailing Putin's secret hideout in case things go really badly for him in Moscow.  The only thing is the construction company that built it posted all of the tunnels and engineering onto the net years ago.  Funny:

https://www.businessinsider.com/revealed-vladimir-putins-secret-black-sea-bunker-russia-kremlin-palace-2023-5?utm_source=reddit.com

3.  A two tube RPG rocket launcher.  It's a nice modification, but probably not all that useful for anything but harassing nearby enemy:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13ke2uu/ukrainian_soldiers_fire_at_russian_positions_from/

4.  And finally, Russia's new promotion for tourism in Crimea:

Steve

[kevinkin]

Low income "quality" housing for Ukraine, night clubs, a walkable community with lots of greenery while dodging cruise missiles sounds unappealing for an investment. Let's not get into the corruption involved subsidizing investments that take place. In the real estate market there is the sad golden rule: today's condos are tomorrows slums. Yes location matters. Kiev is not Miami. On the water, on a golf course, warm good weather. Condos works. Ukraine has long 30 year long hole to dig out of. And will start with clearing the roads, building new schools and hospitals. Then attracting Ukrainians home. It can be done. But not artificially. Ukraine can't become a poster child. They have given too much for that label. But the west better manage the frontier or any progress will be destroyed. Maybe a West German model is better. 

[Kinophile]

RUS MoD knows full well they're not going past Bakhmut anytime soon.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

RUS MoD knows full well they're not going past Bakhmut anytime soon.

there ya go.  fixed

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

there ya go.  fixed

Also affects any potential UKR heavy assault back into the city...

[Fenris]

Footage from a three man team doing a short recce mission.  They don't run into the enemy but there's obviously a lot of fighting going on.

 

[hcrof]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Low income "quality" housing for Ukraine, night clubs, a walkable community with lots of greenery while dodging cruise missiles sounds unappealing for an investment. Let's not get into the corruption involved subsidizing investments that take place. In the real estate market there is the sad golden rule: today's condos are tomorrows slums. Yes location matters. Kiev is not Miami. On the water, on a golf course, warm good weather. Condos works. Ukraine has long 30 year long hole to dig out of. And will start with clearing the roads, building new schools and hospitals. Then attracting Ukrainians home. It can be done. But not artificially. Ukraine can't become a poster child. They have given too much for that label. But the west better manage the frontier or any progress will be destroyed. Maybe a West German model is better. 

I visited Kiev in 2015 and it felt little different to other low cost Eastern/central European cities at the time. Maybe like Prague when it was still popular for stag parties. Low cost flight there, attractive streets for a weekend of tourism, great outdoor Museum of culture, friendly people and good food and drink for very low prices. When they win this war, there will be a surge in tourism and assuming they get favourable trade deals with the EU the development will follow. Personally I would imagine Ukraine to turn out like Romania or Poland after a surge of recovery growth - quick start then consistent 5-7% every year to bring it closer to the EU average.

No need for immigration or condos at the beginning, they already have educated people and decent infrastructure so use that better while attracting foreign money who wants the cheap labour. Then move up the economic chain while attracting immigration from Russia etc.

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by hcrof
Clarity

[Pete Wenman]

No source quoted but Jon tends to know his stuff

Edited May 18, 2023 by Pete Wenman

[Huba]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I visited Kiev in 2015 and it felt little different to other low cost Eastern/central European cities at the time. Maybe like Prague when it was still popular for stag parties. Low cost flight there, attractive streets for a weekend of tourism, great outdoor Museum of culture, friendly people and good food and drink for very low prices. When they win this war, there will be a surge in tourism and assuming they get favourable trade deals with the EU the development will follow. Personally I would imagine Ukraine to turn out like Romania or Poland after a surge of recovery growth - quick start then consistent 5-7% every year to bring it closer to the EU average.

No need for immigration or condos at the beginning, they already have educated people and decent infrastructure so use that better while attracting foreign money who wants the cheap labour. Then move up the economic chain while attracting immigration from Russia etc.

 

This sounds the most realistic to me(from possible optimistic scenarios).
We can be pretty sure that there will be a lot of money pumped into Ukraine for rebuilding destroyed infrastructure and then for improving it in general, this is what happened in every country that joined the UE. Given from how a low level of GDP PP Ukraine will be starting and being a part of EU common market, investments and rapid growth would be assured, it is just too good an opportunity to miss. And one thing that can be said looking at Ukrainians here in Poland is that they are hard working people.
Perhaps the greatest long-term issue for UA is demography. Between low birth rate, war losses, and several millions refugees who might not want to go back the country will be hard pressed to keep growing economically. As you mention though, their chance might be immigration from Russia - there are tens of millions of people there who are (or can claim to be) of Ukrainian descent. If RU turns into a failed state that Putin is leading it to become, perhaps it might work somehow? Learn the language, get rid of RU passport and repatriate to a country (of your ancestors) that gives some perspectives?

 

Edit:
Here's a stream from PISM Strategic Arc 2023 conference hosted by Polish Institute of International Affairs. It is completely in English, and included Q&A session with Polish Chief of General Staff gen. Andrzejczak and SACEUR gen. Cavoli (they even mentioned relation of mass and precision ;P). Surely beats TV if you need some background noise.

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by Huba

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

As you mention though, their chance might be immigration from Russia - there are tens of millions of people there who are (or can claim to be) of Ukrainian descent.

That would be - interesting... I'm not sure if the Ukrainians want to do that since they are just trying to get rid of the Russians. But then, they might have no choice because they need immigration and the Russians are closest - distance wise and culturally.

The other options is people from the global south. But if Ukraine shares the sentiment of their neighbours about that, it isn't an option at all.

10 hours ago, MikeyD said:

If I recall correctly, robot mule failed military testing because it sounded like you were bringing a riding lawnmower into combat with you.

I noticed that, too. But it seems like an easy thing to fix. Sound proofing combustion engines is a well known thing.

You could also use a hydrogen fuel cell. More expensive of course, but hey, it's the military.

[Bulletpoint]

11 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The difference between these two images fills me with hope for the future of Ukraine after this war.

Who knows when the second pic was taken, and where... There's nothing in the pics that suggest it's the same place. Can't find a single match in the trees, houses, or anything else. Yet people just uncritically believe it.

Could well be Bucha, just a different street that wasn't affected. Or the second pic could be Bucha before the war.

 

Here's a Bucha comparison I think is genuine:

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[mosuri]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

One thing I hadn't though of is what the reported use of stimulates (drugs) by Russian soldiers, especially Wagnerites, does to survivability.  These sorts of drugs tend to get the blood pumping faster, which means if a soldier sprouts a leak he's going to bleed out a lot faster than someone not on drugs.  The main source for the material in the thread said that they found other reasons to not keep doing it, such as zombifying the soldiers after a few days of drugs.

Steve

I started wondering now -- there's been many videos of Russian soldiers in state of complete exhaustion, e.g., not responding even when drone above them drops grenades to their trench. This reminded me of Pervitin stories from WW2, when soldiers would utterly crash after the amphetamine's effects wore off. Maybe Russians are not recycling soldiers away fast enough after assaults during which they consume (too much) stimulants?

Just guesses, nothing factual to build on, but could be a possibility.

[Offshoot]

38 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Who knows when the second pic was taken, and where...

The original source, who actually took the photos

 

[Beleg85]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another example of Russia's tradition of doing something poorly and then half arsing event.  Army paramedics have 2 classes a year to do a few basic things, like set a splint.  An experienced paramedic attended one of these sessions and found the instructor didn't know how to set a splint.  And if that wasn't bad enough, others say that the trainings consisted of dressing up, posing, having some pictures taken, and then going back to wherever they came from.

The rest of the thread is just as insane.  Once again, we are looking at something that doesn't show well in a parade, therefore a much lower priority for spending.  Plus, what ever money did get allocated would just get pocketed anyway, so why bother.

One thing I hadn't though of is what the reported use of stimulates (drugs) by Russian soldiers, especially Wagnerites, does to survivability.  These sorts of drugs tend to get the blood pumping faster, which means if a soldier sprouts a leak he's going to bleed out a lot faster than someone not on drugs.  The main source for the material in the thread said that they found other reasons to not keep doing it, such as zombifying the soldiers after a few days of drugs.

Steve

"The Jackass", Russian version (note clip still in rifle directed in his own face):

Ofc. these are just localized examples that speaks to larger problems, but there are opposite claims (including medics from here, now tending people in Bakhmut) that Russian military doctors generally do well when patient is already at the field hospital- not on Western level, but one must take into consideration scale and dynamism of this war.

It is lack of transport and shoddy first help skills that kill most of soldiers in this army rather than medics themselves.

Compare it for example to how fast first help is given to Ukrainian soldier clearing  trenches from remnants of Wagnerites, being unexpectedly shot by muscovite- video is somewhat sped up, but wounded young Ukrainian soldier is tended in like 1-2 mins from the time he got shot (some say light colour of blood may indicade hand artery was cut):

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by Beleg85

[akd]

 

[A Canadian Cat]

21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To put it in crude terms, the Russian population can only focus on one thing at a time and it retains very little memory of what came before it.  This allows propaganda to be tailored to a very short and immediate need without (much) concern that people will lose faith when the lies falls apart.  When it does fall apart, instead of questioning what they were told they ask for a new explanation, propagandists invent another short term message, and the cycle continues to repeat.

Sounds not to  dissimilar to

Quote

“The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”

from 1984 by George Orwell

[Centurian52]

8 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Low income "quality" housing for Ukraine, night clubs, a walkable community with lots of greenery while dodging cruise missiles

The war will not last forever. I think it's pretty obvious that all talk of Ukraine being a potentially nice place to move to, with a little fixing up, is referring to a time after the war is over.

I think my point of view is somewhere between yours and Steve's (depending on what timelines Steve is thinking on). I think I agree with you that it will take more than just a few years to make Ukraine a nice place to live compared with other places in Europe. They have a lot of catching up to do after all. But almost all of the gap between the standard of living in Ukraine and in western European countries is due to Russia. Now that they have pretty completely broken things off with Moscow I think we can expect them to grow very rapidly, just like every other former Soviet bloc country in Europe that realigned away from Moscow. With all the reconstruction money that I hope will be pouring in, Marshal plan style, I think we can expect them to grow far more rapidly than even Poland. Give it a couple decades and I think Ukraine really might be one of the most attractive destinations in Europe.

[keas66]

I'm not sure the Russian General Population is any more stupid/less self-aware than any other mass of Humanity in any other location  on the planet . Generalizations are not very useful  or particularly clever .