How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

7 minutes ago, womble said:

The only reason I can think of not to do this is the concealability of the platform. A tripod mounted weapon is easier to hide "in a bush" than an ATV-class chassis with a tripod-mounted weapon strapped to it.

Looking at something like the Wiesel for inspiration (and a UGV could likely be even smaller, since it doesn't have to make accommodations to fit a driver or gunner) an ATGM mounted on a dedicated vehicle definitely has a larger signature than an ATGM mounted on a tripod. But it would also have a significantly smaller signature than a full sized armored vehicle like an APC or IFV. And it has the added benefit that it can get into and out of position much faster. Both the tripod mounted and UGV mounted ATGMs would be small and concealable enough to conduct some pretty deadly ambushes, but only the UGV mounted ATGMs would be able to bug out moments after springing the ambush.

[MSBoxer]

How about more of a low profile tracked platform with a minimal sensor mast and a "disappearing" gun arrangement(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearing_gun)

Think of a tracked platform no taller than a few feet with a periscope type sensor mast and a gun that can rise when a target is detected then lower.  The vehicle could take advantage of any depression, hedge, or random shrub to hide from enemy sensors.

Hell, you could do away with the sensor mast and rely on small drones to identify targets, rough aim the gun in lowered position and the zero in when raised.

[Battlefront.com]

Observations of Putin regime stress from a long time journalist and former Soviet political prisoner:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/17/rattled-kremlin-ukraine-psychological-warfare/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3a09c73%2F6464f9d61380f762486661c5%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F17%2F72%2F6464f9d61380f762486661c5

Quote

A mysterious drone attack on the Kremlin. A car bombing that wounded a key advocate of the invasion of Ukraine. Four military aircraft shot down in a single day — inside Russia’s borders.

 

If the Ukrainians and their allies wanted to rattle the Russian leadership, it’s working.

Never, in more than two decades of covering Vladimir Putin’s regime, have I seen it in such an obvious state of chaos and disarray. These days, Kremlin-watchers don’t have to read tea leaves or decode cryptic utterances from the leadership to spot the signs of intrigue — it’s all out in the open, thanks to Putin confidant Yevgeniy Prigozhin.

Note that she is not saying that Prig is the source of the "chaos", rather a symptom of it.  She goes on to say:

Quote

Russian political insiders are increasingly questioning the rationale for the war. Sen. Lyudmila Narusova, the widow of Putin’s political mentor Anatoly Sobchak, recently went public with her concerns.

“Nobody has explained how victory is supposed to look,” she told an interviewer. “If we think of the originally declared goals, ‘denazification’ and ‘demilitarization,’ the entire Ukrainian army must have been already destroyed by now.” Noting that Russian forces now face Ukrainian troops armed and equipped by the West, she went on: “Does that mean we are demilitarizing NATO? That goal is unattainable.”

If Narusova does not understand Putin’s plan for victory, then no one else does, either.

This last observation gets at something kinda interesting about this war.  At the beginning we were all, correctly, obsessed with comparing Russia's stated goals against the reality of the war (political and economic as well as military).  Many a Russian expert scratched their heads and said "I don't get it.  What do these stated goals even mean?".  Since then the stated goals have changed a bit, but have not conformed to reality or presented a clearer picture of why Russia is fighting this war.  It seems most analysts have given up caring about it because the Russian people don't seem to mind.

However, as with any presentation of any sort, if you can not verbalize to your audience what you're trying to achieve, chances are you don't know either.  Putin's and his top goons probably do know (i.e. regime preservation, keeping the near abroad in line, and genocide against a long standing problem), but this isn't the sort of thing that can be said out loud for various reasons.  So the regime has no coherent message to promote and that means people have to figure it out for themselves.  The result is chaos.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Looking at something like the Wiesel for inspiration (and a UGV could likely be even smaller, since it doesn't have to make accommodations to fit a driver or gunner) an ATGM mounted on a dedicated vehicle definitely has a larger signature than an ATGM mounted on a tripod. But it would also have a significantly smaller signature than a full sized armored vehicle like an APC or IFV. And it has the added benefit that it can get into and out of position much faster. Both the tripod mounted and UGV mounted ATGMs would be small and concealable enough to conduct some pretty deadly ambushes, but only the UGV mounted ATGMs would be able to bug out moments after springing the ambush.

There are also some concepts where the UGV acts as a mobile platform, but the weapon can be dismounted.  This gives the infantry all kinds of options and, at the very least, a means of transporting it.

Rarely do I see an evolving weapon system and think it is a) near term plausible, b) will likely do everything as advertised, and c) be worth the cost to develop, deploy, and sustain.

Let me just say flat out that I'm in love with UGVs and I don't care who knows it

Steve

[Yet]

 

massive explosion

Ukraine: infrastructure hit

RU: ammunition dump

 

this time i think the RU narrative is  better specified.

[sburke]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To put it in crude terms, the Russian population can only focus on one thing at a time and it retains very little memory of what came before it.  

So essentially, they operate on about the same level as my cat.  It knows when my wife goes in the kitchen it sometimes gets a treat.  So every time she heads to the kitchen the cat perks up, even if she was in the kitchen just 5 minutes ago and already gave her the treat.  Keep in mind she only gives the cat a treat once a day and usually in the evening.  Doesn't matter to the cat.  Could be 11am, she's headed to the kitchen ergo maybe a treat!  To give my cat some credit, she just turned 20.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/northwest/idaho/article275446706.html
American killed in Ukraine blast believed to be Boise Army veteran training civilians

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/europe/ukraine-us-citizen-bakhmut-intl/index.html
US Army Special Forces veteran killed in ‘barrage’ of Russian artillery in Bakhmut

[MikeyD]

On the topic of Wiesel, a couple years ago Hapless did a Youtube video of a CMSF2 firefight that seems pertinent. An infantry night assault across flat terrain. At minute 7:01 he brings up a Wiesel to assist the German infantry and the little vehicle frankly surprised him.

 

[kimbosbread]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There are also some concepts where the UGV acts as a mobile platform, but the weapon can be dismounted.  This gives the infantry all kinds of options and, at the very least, a means of transporting it.

Rarely do I see an evolving weapon system and think it is a) near term plausible, b) will likely do everything as advertised, and c) be worth the cost to develop, deploy, and sustain.

Let me just say flat out that I'm in love with UGVs and I don't care who knows it

Steve

You missed (d) easy to integrate with other capabilities. Specifically, integration with drones for targeting, and coordination with other UGVs to form for example a mini artillery battery on the fly, and flexible fire programming, that is drop a line of 40mm on the trench, but hit the IFV with a few extra rounds for suresies, without needing direct input from the soldier.

EDIT: Or opportunistic programming, such as the drone detects an mg an atgm team and this is presented as a “one-click” fire to the commander.

Edited May 17, 2023 by kimbosbread

[billbindc]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Observations of Putin regime stress from a long time journalist and former Soviet political prisoner:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/17/rattled-kremlin-ukraine-psychological-warfare/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3a09c73%2F6464f9d61380f762486661c5%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F17%2F72%2F6464f9d61380f762486661c5

Note that she is not saying that Prig is the source of the "chaos", rather a symptom of it.  She goes on to say:

This last observation gets at something kinda interesting about this war.  At the beginning we were all, correctly, obsessed with comparing Russia's stated goals against the reality of the war (political and economic as well as military).  Many a Russian expert scratched their heads and said "I don't get it.  What do these stated goals even mean?".  Since then the stated goals have changed a bit, but have not conformed to reality or presented a clearer picture of why Russia is fighting this war.  It seems most analysts have given up caring about it because the Russian people don't seem to mind.

However, as with any presentation of any sort, if you can not verbalize to your audience what you're trying to achieve, chances are you don't know either.  Putin's and his top goons probably do know (i.e. regime preservation, keeping the near abroad in line, and genocide against a long standing problem), but this isn't the sort of thing that can be said out loud for various reasons.  So the regime has no coherent message to promote and that means people have to figure it out for themselves.  The result is chaos.

Steve

It's important not to take Narusova's comments at face value. She knows that the war had a purpose and that Putin explained it pretty clearly at the beginning. It was to stop internal danger to the regime presented by democratic frontsliding in Ukraine. In that light, Russian victory simply looks like whatever safeguards Putin and his picked elite's hold on power. What she is *really* saying is that she doesn't see how the current course leads to that outcome before catastrophic economic or military collapses remove it from the table entirely. And she knows that Putin is convinced that Western resolve will fail before that happens. 

So...what she is actually saying is "No, the West isn't going to blink and what then?". It's a loud and clear message to the layer of the power structure just outside of those directly reporting to Putin and cleverly done.

[A Canadian Cat]

On 5/16/2023 at 12:55 PM, sburke said:

On 5/16/2023 at 12:52 PM, kimbosbread said:

Several issues:

1. How expensive is it to take down a satellite?
2. How bad is a the debris cloud for friendly and enemy satellites?
3. How expensive is it to replace the satellite? How fast can it be replaced?
4. How expensive is it to launch? How fast can we launch?

SpaceX and friends are rapidly solving (3, 4) to the point it will be cheaper to throw up some new birds than a $10+M antisatellite missile. (2) is a huge problem, however.

Expand  

1.  probably cheap.  A small object at high velocity..

2. really bad.  Be best if we weren't using kinetic energy

3.  Easier for us than China

4 Cheaper and faster for us.

However winning at #3 and #4 is not as relevant if because of #2 nothing can stay operational very long.

[Centurian52]

I'm trying to imagine how the TO&E would work for small, weapon truck style UGVs. Congratulations, the DoD has developed a small (maybe half the height of an average human, without a weapon mounted), tracked, unmanned vehicle with an attachment point for either an autocannon or an ATGM, and with just enough armor to be proof against 7.62. Now how do you use them?

Do you attach one to every infantry squad? That could provide some valuable fire-support down to the squad level, and there is little doubt that it has the mobility to keep up with a squad that's pushing hard on the attack. But perhaps you're concerned that the squad leader already has his hands full commanding the human fireteams. Do you add an additional member to the squad whos sole job is to manage the unmanned assets (the UGV plus the little thumb sized recon drones that have been issued down to every squad)? That gives you a 10 man squad (two 4 man fireteams plus a 2 man command element).

Perhaps you decide that these are a platoon level asset? In this case you may have a member of the platoon HQ team controlling the "unmanned squad", consisting of a fire-support UGV team and a recon/grenade dropping UAV team. Or scale this up to the company level instead, with an unmanned platoon consisting of a UGV squad and a UAV squad.

Or perhaps they are organized as separate units entirely. A platoon sized number of humans commanding a battalion sized number of UGVs as a division level asset, to support or be attached to individual human units as needed.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Centurian52

[BlackMoria]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

So...what she is actually saying is "No, the West isn't going to blink and what then?". It's a loud and clear message to the layer of the power structure just outside of those directly reporting to Putin and cleverly done.

Blood is in the water.  The great beast is weakening.   The west has the sense of this and the predators are closing in.  France is saying it will provide their own version of Storm Shadow to Ukraine.  The UK and the Dutch and Belgium are talking F-16 training.   And that is a foreshadow that F-16 or a similar airframe are on the table.   More and more armaments of all kinds are being promised now or short term.

The russian bear is looking out into the night and see nothing but the hungry eyes of predators awaiting their moment.  Those eyes are Ukrainian eyes and Western eyes.  I wonder if anyone in the Kremlin is aware they are staring into the abyss already and russian dreams are dead, dead, dead...

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's important not to take Narusova's comments at face value. She knows that the war had a purpose and that Putin explained it pretty clearly at the beginning. It was to stop internal danger to the regime presented by democratic frontsliding in Ukraine. In that light, Russian victory simply looks like whatever safeguards Putin and his picked elite's hold on power. What she is *really* saying is that she doesn't see how the current course leads to that outcome before catastrophic economic or military collapses remove it from the table entirely. And she knows that Putin is convinced that Western resolve will fail before that happens. 

So...what she is actually saying is "No, the West isn't going to blink and what then?". It's a loud and clear message to the layer of the power structure just outside of those directly reporting to Putin and cleverly done.

Yup, and what she's sensing is that this power structure (which Prig is just one cog in) is starting to understand what we've known since the start... Putin has no Plan B, just a whole lot of variations of Plan A which didn't work.  Putin's inability to articulate an alternative to a nation level suicide march seems to finally starting to sink in. 

The populace can't be all that far behind in figuring this out either.  The messaging to convince them otherwise simply isn't there.  Although Russian propaganda does a great job of buying the regime time, that's all it is doing (see previous post).  Maybe, just maybe, the Ukrainian counter offensive + emergency Russian mobilization will finally tip the balance.

Steve

[Pete Wenman]

 

UKA clearing trenches - motivated and capable.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1658862542502895617?s=20

 

P

Edited May 17, 2023 by Pete Wenman

[Fernando]

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

[Kinophile]

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5hY2FzdC5jb20vcHVibGljL3Nob3dzLzVlYjQxMTE3NTcwMzU4Y2Q2NzNhM2E4NQ/episode/NjNmNzUzNzc4YWI0MzEwMDEwYmMxOWFi?ep=14

Good discussion of higher level, macro effects on Russia. 

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

UKA clearing trenches - motivated and capable.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1658862542502895617?s=20

 

P

Yesh, looks like he got an artery nicked.  No panic.  He did everything he needed to do after getting hit to survive the battle.  I've noticed for some time now that Ukrainian soldiers are very well equipped with speed tourniquets, in his case it probably saved him from bleeding out.

One of the commentators observed it was probably from friendly grenade shrapnel.  It's situations like this that underscore the importance of knowing what everybody is doing.  "Grenade Out!" might have prevented the injury.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Snap

Edited May 17, 2023 by Kinophile

[Yet]

28 minutes ago, Fernando said:

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

.... get up, stand up. 

stand up for your right.

get up, stand up. 

dont give up the fight. 

 

(Bob Marley)

[womble]

50 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I'm trying to imagine how the TO&E would work for small, weapon truck style UGVs. Congratulations, the DoD has developed a small (maybe half the height of an average human, without a weapon mounted), tracked, unmanned vehicle with an attachment point for either an autocannon or an ATGM, and with just enough armor to be proof against 7.62. Now how do you use them?

I think it replaces whatever infantry heavy weapon is mounted on the truck, in the infantry TO&E, especially if it can be demounted to use "conventionally", or even as a lower profile static weapon station ("sentry gun") as well.

[Beleg85]

Russian improvization from one of the TG channels, reportedly group South. S-60 57 mm gun on tank chassis.

Njet analoga w mirie.

 

[zinz]

As everyone is looking forward to UGVs I am not so convinced. They have one unsolved problem and that is mobility.

You have all seen the rubble, the mud, the pure chaos that makes any movement complicated. What size of platform do you guys have in mind? 

The weasel was mentioned. That is not a small vehicle. 3-4 tons. 1.9m wide about 4m long. Yes that is big enough to drive over a trench or through mud and rubble. Anything smaller will get bogged down in a real combat zone real fast. What could be implemented easily is a remote control option to drive around the next corner to do some shooting without risking the operators life. For a vehicle of this size how do you move the operators around? With another vehicle? On foot? How the UVGs runs over your own guys because the operator was not looking at the screen for a few seconds? 

Small ones for an MG I have not seen any design that is truly mobile and doesn't get stuck at the next obstacle. I mean there has been research on this topic for a century on remote controlled vehicles. But sofar we are not much closer to a reliable solution than the Germans with their Goliath. 

Another thing not to underestimate is maintenance and repairs. Especially in a war zone. The jammed gun will not fix itself. The stone stuck in the track will not remove itself. The dirt at your sensors will stay there until they get removed. No we don't have robots for those tasks. 

Controlling a vehicle remotely is solved. Having it mobile and keeping it in operating condition is not solved. 

Also those systems are sitting ducks for kamikaze drones. 

Land and air are two completely different domains with very different engineering challenges. 

[Centurian52]

25 minutes ago, zinz said:

The weasel was mentioned. That is not a small vehicle. 3-4 tons.

3-4 tons is tiny, practically microscopic. Almost all combat vehicles weigh in the tens of tons.

25 minutes ago, zinz said:

how do you move the operators around?

If the UGVs are supporting an infantry unit, then the operators are part of the infantry unit. Moving at the same pace as the rest of the infantry, just without having to lug the heavy weapons themselves. If the UGVs are part of an armored unit, then we are seeing the ground version of the manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) concept that is being developed for 6th gen fighters, in which the operators are in a central command vehicle which controls the swarm of unmanned vehicles.

25 minutes ago, zinz said:

Another thing not to underestimate is maintenance and repairs. Especially in a war zone. The jammed gun will not fix itself. The stone stuck in the track will not remove itself. The dirt at your sensors will stay there until they get removed. No we don't have robots for those tasks. 

Because the vehicle is unmanned does not mean that the unit it's in doesn't have maintenance personnel. It doesn't make much difference that those personnel aren't with the vehicle during combat, because combat is not the time to be conducting maintenance anyway. You conduct maintenance between missions, not during missions.

25 minutes ago, zinz said:

Also those systems are sitting ducks for kamikaze drones. 

More so than manned platforms?

Edited May 17, 2023 by Centurian52

[MikeyD]

While Googling UGVs I stumbled across this headline (of unknown provenance).

Quote

Germany will transfer 14 unmanned ground vehicles to Ukraine in 2023. THeMIS Milrem Robotics UGV can carry cargo or assist in the evacuation of the wounded

The UGV in the photo looks like a minuature WWI tank, I suppose a design optimized for driving over obstacles.

Edited May 17, 2023 by MikeyD