How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[CAZmaj]

21 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I respectfully disagree, I don't know anything about baseball. But a cricket ball is solid inside and if it hits you can do some serious damage. Here it show the energy it can break a bat. 

 

The cricket ball weight is 155.9 to 163 grams in Men’s Cricket while in Women’s cricket, its weight differs from 140 to 151 grams.

Commonly used RGD-5 hand grenade is egg-shaped without ribbing, except for a lateral ridge where the two halves of the grenade join. It weighs 310 grams (11 oz), is 117 millimeters (4.6 in) in length and 58 millimeters (2.3 in) in diameter. The surface has a few small dimples with green or olive drab paint. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RGD-5

In the former Yugoslav Army, we had a similarly looking and domestically produced hand grenade and called it an "offensive" hand grenade because it was lighter than another so called "defensive" hand grenade.

Edited May 8, 2023 by CAZmaj

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

Are you really trying to argue that a cricket ball is heavier than a grenade ... because ... some bats that should have been retired games ago were held onto for too long and then predictably broke when the batsman tried to hit a fast bowl ?

Ooookay then.

That's an approach, I guess.

All in good fun. The Rottie appointed himself once as a fielder and the ball almost knocked him out. The ball was ruined he managed to bite some holes in it. 

[womble]

2 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

A lot of practice makes an expert.

Indeed.

I watched a "Army olympics" competition on the telly once. One of the competitions was grenade chucking. The competitors had to crawl along a shallow trench/ditch to a certain point. and lob grenades at a bucket without getting "shot". Fortunately for most, "close" does count with a hand grenade (even a dummy one, for competition purposes). The Gurkha guy, though, crawled up the ditch, popped his head up once for a look at the target, then, from near-prone, without looking, dropped all 5 eggs straight in the bucket 20m away and crawled on to the next task.

[Anon052]

I hope this isn't true, this would be a major shift and very shortsighted:

 

[womble]

1 hour ago, Anon052 said:

I hope this isn't true, this would be a major shift and very shortsighted:

 

Who is Fiona Hill and why does she have special insight? Most of the statements in the bits that I can get at sound like tea-leaf reading and prognistication by people who may or may not actually know anything. Might be true. Might not be. Hopefully, the "spring offensive" will provide an opportunity for negotiations, but not because it leads to a freeze...

[Kinophile]

21 minutes ago, womble said:

Who is Fiona Hill and why does she have special insight? Most of the statements in the bits that I can get at sound like tea-leaf reading and prognistication by people who may or may not actually know anything. Might be true. Might not be. Hopefully, the "spring offensive" will provide an opportunity for negotiations, but not because it leads to a freeze...

Yah it's just more of the hedging by some on the US.

First Rule of Politics: CYA

[Bearstronaut]

7 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

Rampant corruption is reported to have rendered Russia's ballistic missile early warning system virtually useless. Scams by contractors are said to have led to unsuitable foreign-made components being used on a wide scale.

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a scandal is about to break over a component substitution scam that it says has crippled Russia's early warning radars. Such scams have been widespread in Russian military procurement, often with the collusion of corrupt officials.

 

A poorly maintained or non-functioning early warning ballistic missile early warning system in a paranoid and belligerent country like Russia is highly ominous.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Who is Fiona Hill and why does she have special insight?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiona_Hill_(presidential_advisor)

She's a respected Washington insider with realistic (aka "hawkish") views on Russia.  This got her into problems within the Trump admin when she worked for it.  Because she maintained credibility while serving there her voice is still respected today.

As for the report, it should surprise absolutely nobody.  I know I've been saying for months now that this counter offensive is critically important.  To the degree it is seen as a success or failure will determine the level of support Ukraine receives going forward.  The West's overwhelming preference is for Ukraine to deliver a knock out punch this year, or at least something pretty close to it.  If it looks like things are going to grind on then support will change.  Not disappear, change.  The form of that change will probably look very different from capital to capital.

Steve

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Now that suddenly Wagner is staying in Bakhmut after all is that likely to be because Prig was succesful in getting the ammo he wanted, or because Putin put in a blocking unit and said he couldn't leave?

Putin *owns* Wagner. Prigozhin does not. 

Don't let the chef try to fool you into thinking he's the the boss outside of the kitchen.

Edit for some clarifying details: 

1. Putin can use lawfare to remove Prigozhin from his position at any time and there are any number of malleable alternates waiting in the wings.

2. Wagner can't feed, ammo or move itself. That is controlled by the MoD who would starve it at Putin's suggestion immediately. 

That means that Wagner is going to fight when/where/how Putin directs. Finis.

Edited May 8, 2023 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Putin *owns* Wagner. Prigozhin does not. 

Don't let the chef try to fool you into thinking he's the the boss outside of the kitchen.

Edit for some clarifying details: 

1. Putin can use lawfare to remove Prigozhin from his position at any time and there are any number of malleable alternates waiting in the wings.

2. Wagner can't feed, ammo or move itself. That is controlled by the MoD who would starve it at Putin's suggestion immediately. 

That means that Wagner is going to fight when/where/how Putin directs. Finis.

You forgot the other one... Putin can arrange for Prig to commit suicide by drinking a radioactive isotope, then receive 5 shots to the chest, and finally jump out a window.  The official medical examiner's report would, of course, state he died of a heart attack.  Wagner would hold some sort of funeral for him in private, and then that would be that.

I know many of us here have been pointing out from the start that Prig is a tool of Putin, even if Putin isn't directing his every day to day action.  The only way this dynamic would change is if Prig can gather enough support amongst other power brokers so that Putin hesitates when enforcing his will on him. 

This is why the Prig-Kadyrov relationship (alliance?) is something to watch.  The tighter their relationship becomes, the more Kadyrov's protection extends to Prig.  Prig is a useful tool for Kadyrov as well.  I think Putin will take Prig out the second he feels a line is being crossed because of that.

The difference between Prigozhin's Wagner Group and Kadyrov's Chechen clan is exactly that.  Wagner is a bunch of mercenaries who are motivated by money and violence, Kadyrov's people are family in all meaningful uses of that term.  Prig can be replaced or Wagner dissolved and Putin's regime will be just fine.  Kill Kadyrov and it's civil war.

Kadyrov's death or incapacitation has always been extremely risky for Putin, but these days it would most likely result in Russia starting to break apart.  The risk not only comes from an "arranged death" by the Kremlin, but accident or health related death having nothing to do with Kremlin actions.  There's probably nobody else in the regime that Putin goes to sleep thinking "I really hope he doesn't have a real heart attack".

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You forgot the other one... Putin can arrange for Prig to commit suicide by drinking a radioactive isotope, then receive 5 shots to the chest, and finally jump out a window.  The official medical examiner's report would, of course, state he died of a heart attack.  Wagner would hold some sort of funeral for him in private, and then that would be that.

I know many of us here have been pointing out from the start that Prig is a tool of Putin, even if Putin isn't directing his every day to day action.  The only way this dynamic would change is if Prig can gather enough support amongst other power brokers so that Putin hesitates when enforcing his will on him. 

Kadyrov's death or incapacitation has always been extremely risky for Putin, but these days it could result in Russia starting to break apart.  The risk not only comes from an "arranged death" by the Kremlin, but accident or health related death having nothing to do with Kremlin actions.  There's probably nobody else in the regime that Putin goes to sleep thinking "I really hope he doesn't have a real heart attack".

The difference between Prigozhin's Wagner Group and Kadyrov's Chechen clan is exactly that.  Wagner is a bunch of mercenaries who are motivated by money and violence, Kadyrov's people are family in all meaningful uses of that term.  Prig can be replaced or Wagner dissolved and Putin's regime will be just fine.  Kill Kadyrov and it's civil war.

This is why the Prig-Kadyrov relationship (alliance?) is something to watch.  The tighter their relationship becomes, the more Kadyrov's protection extends to Prig.  Prig is a useful tool for Kadyrov as well.  I think Putin will take Prig out the second he feels a line is being crossed because of that.

Steve

Do you see Prigozhin as a kind of puppet or mouthpiece that Putin uses to send public messages to his generals? Or was the latest angry shouting video directed at Shoigu and Gerasimov Prig's own idea?

I find it difficult to understand the power structure and the reason for these public theatrics.

On the face of it, it seems Prig's status and authority have been elevated by being able to angrily insult Russian army leadership in public and then getting them to do what he wants.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[kevinkin]

Bit of an update on the M1s slated for Ukraine:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/05/08/american-tanks-abrams-ukraine-russia/70182975007/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

"There is no silver bullet in this case, Miley said. "But I do think the M1 tank, when it's delivered and it reaches its operational capability, that it will be very effective on the battlefield."

Nothing like a can do attitude. 

[Astrophel]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I find it difficult to understand the power structure and the reason for these public theatrics.

Me too.  Having listened in full to both Prigozhin and Kadyrov's ramblings, my suspicion is that the russian command is disintegrating before our eyes.  Kadyrov was bizarre.  He sounded like a man on heavy medication - downers - loosely connected with reality.  He appeared to be claiming the honors for victory in Mariupol even.  Priggy was manic - not the guy to entrust with any mission.  His connection with reality is equally loose.  While his flanks are being protected by Gerasimov and Shoigu it is not exactly wise to mouth off as he did.  In reality he has been losing for months in Bakhmut.  His failure is not because he is missing some shells last week.

Looking at these two guys, even Putin must be worried.  His crack troops are cracking up before the eye of the world, drones popping off on the kremlin flagpole, and tomorrow many of his Barons are cancelling the annual parades because they don't think Putin can keep them safe.  At this rate there will be no need for a counter offensive.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

Priggy was manic - not the guy to entrust with any mission.  His connection with reality is equally loose.  While his flanks are being protected by Gerasimov and Shoigu it is not exactly wise to mouth off as he did.  In reality he has been losing for months in Bakhmut.  His failure is not because he is missing some shells last week.

When I saw the rant, I thought that Prig was burning all bridges behind him with that one, and that he would indeed leave Bakhmut. And I thought the obvious reason was that he realised the war is lost, and he wanted to get out of there before the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

By leaving in time, he was hoping to be remembered as "the guy who actually did the hard work" but was betrayed by incompetent fat cats. Then later, as Russian leadership crumbles, he might return and use that political capital to seize power or at least some lucrative position.

But now he's apparently staying, so that theory went out the window.

Making a public rant like that seems extremely bad for the morale of Russian soldiers (of they get to see it). I'm surprised he's allowed to live after rocking the boat so much.

[billbindc]

51 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Do you see Prigozhin as a kind of puppet or mouthpiece that Putin uses to send public messages to his generals? Or was the latest angry shouting video directed at Shoigu and Gerasimov Prig's own idea?

I find it difficult to understand the power structure and the reason for these public theatrics.

On the face of it, it seems Prig's status and authority have been elevated by being able to angrily insult Russian army leadership in public and then getting them to do what he wants.

The power structure:

1. Kadyrov is a warlord with a defined territory he controls as a palatinate of the Russian Federation. He has intense local ties, a populace and geography that is quite difficult if not now impossible for the Russian army to subdue and an army that is loyal, personally, to him. His power is interleaved with Putin's but negotiated and inalienable by the Kremlin. 

2. Prigozhin is a functionary without any defined territorial control and thus no independent logistics, manpower sources or arms. He is, in essence, the appointed head of a quasi-state enterprise without a stronghold in any institution, region or ethnic group. He can be subdued by the simple expedient of cutting him off, trumping up a tax charge against him and tossing him back into the Russian penal system. His power derives from favor only, is alienable and only negotiated with difficulty.

What you are witnessing is the interplay between (in order of importance) the large institutional powers (FSB, MoD), the regional warlord (Kadyrov), the disposable functionary (Prigozhin) and the system created by Putin in which all must vie for his favor in whatever way they can. The  FSB/MoD are in daily contact and have the greatest access to Putin. They don't need to shout to be heard. Kadyrov mostly boasts but more importantly he withholds his forces in order to gain concessions and preserve his own strength for the aftermath. Prigozhin is much more marginal and so he must go public and make dramatic gestures for Putin to hear him. That's what you saw last week. 

The larger point of course is that Russia is run as a semi-mafia state primarily concerned with safeguarding Putin's power. Putin is the arbiter of the factions who must appeal to him in order to protect themselves and receive decisions and resources while their competition keeps them from uniting against him. And that creates inherent weaknesses...like divided command, conflicts between military needs and domestic power struggles, etc. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by billbindc

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The power structure:

1. Kadyrov is a warlord with a defined territory he controls as a palatinate of the Russian Federation. He has intense local ties, a populace and geography that is quite difficult if not now impossible for the Russian army to subdue and an army that is loyal, personally, to him. His power is interleaved with Putin's but negotiated and inalienable by the Kremlin. 

2. Prigozhin is a functionary without any defined territorial control and thus no independent logistics, manpower sources or arms. He is, in essence, the appointed head of a quasi-state enterprise without a stronghold in any institution, region or ethnic group. He can be subdued by the simple expedient of cutting him off, trumping up a tax charge against him and tossing him back into the Russian penal system. His power derives from favor only and alienable and only negotiated with difficulty.

What you are witnessing is the interplay between (in order of importance) the large institutional powers (FSB, MoD), the regional warlord (Kadyrov), the disposable functionary (Prigozhin) and the system created by Putin in which all must vie for his favor in whatever way they can. The  FSB/MoD are in daily contact and have the greatest access to Putin. They don't need to shout to be heard. Kadyrov mostly boasts but more importantly he withholds his forces in order to gain concessions and preserve his own strength for the aftermath. Prigozhin is much more marginal and so he must go public and make dramatic gestures for Putin to hear him. That's what you saw last week. 

The larger point of course is that Russia is run as a semi-mafia state primarily concerned with safeguarding Putin's power. Putin is the arbiter of the factions who must appeal to him in order to protect themselves and receive decisions and resources while their competition keeps them from uniting against him. And that creates inherent weaknesses...like divided command, conflicts between military needs and domestic power struggles, etc. 

BillBinDC, that should win award for forum post of the month.  Clear, insightful, well written, succinct.  Much appreciated. 

Now, can we please get back to the discussion of how the omniscient all seeing eye of UKR's ISR should be killing every RU schmuck digging a ditch using its infinite supply of precision long range missiles?

[Bulletpoint]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Prigozhin is much more marginal and so he must go public and make dramatic gestures for Putin to hear him. That's what you saw last week. 

But if Putin owns Wagner, as you just said, then why cannot Prigozhin contact Putin directly, and say "We don't get enough ammo"? Why must he make such a drama?

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But if Putin owns Wagner, as you just said, then why cannot Prigozhin contact Putin directly, and say "We don't get enough ammo"? Why must he make such a drama?

Because Putin keeps him at arm's length. He's not important enough to have direct access and he's not powerful enough to force it. Prigozhin's dramatics are a sign of prominence but that's not the same thing as power. And he is now in a quite dangerous position. He demanded and got enormous resources to take Bakhmut. He used it all up and failed. The leaders of the MoD are clearly not going anywhere since Putin dumped them and brought them back and they are going to want a reckoning for all that wasted combat power and time. They are also going to have an excellent excuse if/when the Ukrainian offensive smashes a now under supplied Russian army. Prigozhin is trying to save his life.

Edited May 8, 2023 by billbindc

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But if Putin owns Wagner, as you just said, then why cannot Prigozhin contact Putin directly, and say "We don't get enough ammo"? Why must he make such a drama?

He can, and probably did. The more interesting issue is why Putin doesn't want to give him that for already, what..2-3 months? The only answer is that it is beneficial for him when Prig is pissing publically on MoD carpets. It's political theatre to cull military, and maybe put some steam off the public/prapare for blamegame phase.

Sound strange and even conspiratory to our politcal thinking, but for guy like Puitn such PsyOps on internal use are bread and butter of politics; he learned them before even found himself at Kremlin. He did after all survived and shaped very competing political environment for already 2 decade, without resorting to widespread violence. He did it among other with such careful powerplays.

 

Pretty interesting case study of Russian fortification efforts:

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[sburke]

The other thing is Prig probably didn't really have an ammo shortage.  I don't think the UA feels he did, but he needs an excuse for not taking Bakhmut.

[Astrophel]

46 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Because Putin keeps him at arm's length. He's not important enough to have direct access and he's not powerful enough to force it. 

I doubt this.  Priggy is central in Putin's ambitions throughout Africa and controls billions of dollars of minerals.  He is not without resources, and I would be really amazed if Putin and Prigozhin are not on speed dial - or were.  Priggy has failed in Bakhmut and likely his final deadline - 9 May is the big day in russia - he is going to miss.

Might it be that Priggy's rant was a test for Kadyrov?  Putin needs to know how loyal the barons are.  They are still loyal judging from Kadyrov's reaction.  Kadyrov has not done much recently and probably is pressured to commit his forces for the upcoming counter - hence the downers.

They are all fighting for their lives.  Until now Kadyrov had a comfortable position.   He was retiring to being undisputed master of Chechnya.  Now Putin is attempting to suck him into the maelstrom.

None of these protagonists are people I would trust to run my bath.  The world is in dangerous territory.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Astrophel

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

BillBinDC, that should win award for forum post of the month.  Clear, insightful, well written, succinct.  Much appreciated. 

Now, can we please get back to the discussion of how the omniscient all seeing eye of UKR's ISR should be killing every RU schmuck digging a ditch using its infinite supply of precision long range missiles?

 

10 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

Rampant corruption is reported to have rendered Russia's ballistic missile early warning system virtually useless. Scams by contractors are said to have led to unsuitable foreign-made components being used on a wide scale.

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a scandal is about to break over a component substitution scam that it says has crippled Russia's early warning radars. Such scams have been widespread in Russian military procurement, often with the collusion of corrupt officials.

 

This is the thing worth getting back too. If the Russian procurement system is so utterly corrupt they completely bleeped the single most important electronic system in the entire country? Then tell me again why I am wrong about my theory that most, if not all of there nukes probably don't work either? Everybody up and down the chain could spend the money on real bombs, or their vice of choice. Remember, if someone presses the red button you are unpleasantly dead if it goes off, or if it doesn't. Furthermore these are exactly the kinds of cheating that would make a nuke not work.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Because Putin keeps him at arm's length. He's not important enough to have direct access and he's not powerful enough to force it. Prigozhin's dramatics are a sign of prominence but that's not the same thing as power. And he is now in a quite dangerous position. He demanded and got enormous resources to take Bakhmut. He used it all up and failed. The leaders of the MoD are clearly not going anywhere since Putin dumped them and brought them back and they are going to want a reckoning for all that wasted combat power and time. They are also going to have an excellent excuse if/when the Ukrainian offensive smashes a now under supplied Russian army. Prigozhin is trying to save his life.

Oh man, can you imagine the irony of Prigozhin being dethroned, convicted and jailed -  then forcibly recruited into Gerasimov's PMC with the "promise" of a pardon? 

I just wrote this as sorta joke but holy knickers it's actually possible with this shower of psychotic clowns. 

I'll take Prigozhins Fall & Rise & Fall for $200, please. 

 But, in seriousness, I do have doubts that Priggy Boi is quite the puppet suggested above.

He has an armed,  motivated and personally attached group around him and is regularly,  if not mostly, in a geographic area at a far remove from. Putin personally.

He has also steadily built up ties in the general region, and while the upper MoD probably loathes him,  the Army proper is nowhere near as United.

If he smells danger I expect he'll stay near the Warzone,  surrounded and protected by his Wagneriki. Anybody can be got to,  of course,  but having something like Wagner at your back would give a lot of other players pause. Maybe even Pootin.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

I doubt this.  Priggy is central in Putin's ambitions throughout Africa and controls billions of dollars of minerals.  He is not without resources, and I would be really amazed if Putin and Prigozhin are not on speed dial - or were.  Priggy has failed in Bakhmut and likely his final deadline - 9 May is the big day in russia - he is going to miss.

Might it be that Priggy's rant was a test for Kadyrov?  Putin needs to know how loyal the barons are.  They are still loyal judging from Kadyrov's reaction.  Kadyrov has not done much recently and probably is pressured to commit his forces for the upcoming counter - hence the downers.

They are all fighting for their lives.  Until now Kadyrov had a comfortable position.   He was retiring to being undisputed master of Chechnya.  Now Putin is attempting to suck him into the maelstrom.

None of these protagonists are people I would trust to run my bath.  The world is in dangerous territory.

Wagner isn’t a single entity and yes it owns mining and minerals but virtually all of those operations/acquisitions are  through a series of shell companies. Who owns those? Well…take a guess who might want to have a way to influence events globally and the money to do it that could avoid post 2014 sanctions. It wasn’t even started by Prigozhin…that dubious honor goes to Utkin (the original “Wagner”). The former was brought in by Putin when the organization got bigger. Prigozhin is the tool, not the artist. Putin rewards loyalty in this tools but he doesn’t forget the hierarchy.

As for Kadyrov, I think he’s actually in a pretty good position. He is holding back his own forces still. He is letting the MoD and Wagner wreck themselves and, should push come to shove, he’s now in a position where the Russian Federation probably couldn’t militarily defeat him in the near future. Maybe that changes if there is a breakthrough but so far, the Chechens are the most unmanaged force on the Russian side. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by billbindc

[Centurian52]

On 5/4/2023 at 4:45 PM, Fenris said:

My reading pertains mainly to the German experience in the east.

The physics would be the same on either eastern or western fronts. More spaces crammed with ammunition = a higher probability of a catastrophic explosion killing the entire crew and wrecking the tank beyond any hope of repair.

The same physics continue to apply even today. Some of the most spectacular T-72 turret tosses would never have happened if Russian crews hadn't been cramming in extra ammunition outside the carousel. The same lesson keeps surfacing in war after war. You must resist the urge to bring copious amounts of extra ammunition.