How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Where are they going to get the reinforcements from?

I presume from others sectors of the front not under attack. At least in theory. That's how these things work. Russia can't defend everywhere at once. But at the same time Ukraine can't attack everywhere at once.

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

There are parallels with how Hitler waited FOREVER to put Germany's economy on a true war footing. Not saying it would have been transformative if he had don it sooner. But the war certainly ended a few months sooner because he he waited so long.

There seems to be a historical pattern of dictators being reluctant to put any more money into a war than they can get away with. Dictatorships go to war more casually than democracies, but are hesitant to part with the cash needed to win the war. Democracies go to war far more rarely, but go all-in when they do.

[Centurian52]

3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I presume from others sectors of the front not under attack. At least in theory. That's how these things work. Russia can't defend everywhere at once. But at the same time Ukraine can't attack everywhere at once.

We've discussed this earlier. Any sector the Russians pull reinforcements from practically invites secondary opportunistic Ukrainian offensives in those other sectors.

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

What's an estimate an estimate for the Ukrainian forces they will face?

9 fresh brigades, if the reporting is to be believed. At 4,000 soldiers per brigade that's 36,000 soldiers. Presumably these will be focused on a relatively narrow portion of the front. And they'll be fully mechanized.

[Vanir Ausf B]

8 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

We've discussed this earlier. Any sector the Russians pull reinforcements from practically invites secondary opportunistic Ukrainian offensives in those other sectors.

Yes. Obviously. But as you pointed out, those 9 brigades won't be everywhere at once. That's why it's going to be a contest of ISR and logistics.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Hey Skeptical,

LOL I should have said MR skeptical.  Now I just feel like an average reddit poster skeptical.  But thank you for the capital S, my ego feels a little better.  

back to Russian defense lines.  Gawd would I love to have some idea of what the war gaming that went on in Mannerheim was like.  The UA has a lot of lessons to learn from Kherson and Kharkiv while their allies have a lot to learn about this new face of war.  It is going to be very interesting to see if they can come up with a winning strategy to hammer the RA.  Be nice to see Putin have a heart attack for real.  Not enough to die, just enough for someone in Russia to trade him to the Hague for an off ramp to this war.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

What's an estimate an estimate for the Ukrainian forces they will face?

Over to @Haiduk on that one! 

[danfrodo]

ohhhhh, that stryker two pages ago had a 30mm gun.  Glad someone notice that.  That gives me a really warm fuzzy feeling.  And imagine if we had those in CMBS -- I wouldn't be rapid reversing every time I see a stupid BMP.

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

ohhhhh, that stryker two pages ago had a 30mm gun.  Glad someone notice that.  That gives me a really warm fuzzy feeling.  And imagine if we had those in CMBS -- I wouldn't be rapid reversing every time I see a stupid BMP.

I have my fingers crossed so hard they hurt that that won't be the only upside surprise we see. Hopefully it won't be the most significant one either.

Edited May 9, 2023 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

And this,  ladies,  is why we are a long, long way off a CMBS 2... 

 

[Kinophile]

Drones can do bloody anything. 

 

[kevinkin]

And with extra emphasis on bloody. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Drones can do bloody anything. 

 

Given the vast amount of area to de done I expect in 18 months we will almost completely automated drones that pace off a field and spit a map of every piece of metal bigger than a quarter, with the probable mines highlighted in a different color and grid reference to the centimeter for each. This will be for actual farm fields. The tree lines are going to be no go areas for a hundred years, unless someone can train up a bazillion of those mine detecting African rats. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The tree lines are going to be no go areas for a hundred years, unless someone can train up. bazillion of those mine detecting African rats. 

hell with that, just make Wagner survivors dig for them.  Kind of like a community service sentence.

[kevinkin]

More coverage of this emerging procurement:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/laser-rocket-firing-humvees-spotted-in-service-with-ukraine

Again, seems suited to help attacking units forward. Maybe with the tactical impact the HIMARS now displays operationally. 

Armored Humvees with four-shot laser-guided rocket pods offer Ukraine a quick moving precision attack capability against a wide variety of targets. 

AE Systems, says that these munitions have a maximum range when launched from the ground of around 3.7 miles (6 kilometers). It's also a low-cost weapon, with each complete APKWS II round costing approximately $27,500.

Chase and lase; shoot and scoot. Float like a butterfly; sting like a bee.  

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

hell with that, just make Wagner survivors dig for them.  Kind of like a community service sentence.

Well, after the rats find them, someone still needs to dig them up....

[Sojourner]

51 minutes ago, sburke said:

hell with that, just make Wagner survivors dig for them.  Kind of like a community service sentence.

De-mine and fertilize in one step.

[kevinkin]

Given the number of dead, fertilizer not needed. A bit of lime might help after the soil pH is analyzed. 

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Drones can do bloody anything. 

Do you know what type of sensor they're using to identify exactly where the mines are?

Edited May 9, 2023 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, billbindc said:

What Prigozhin has around him is an armed, motivated *mercenary* group that is surrounded by the Russian military and depends wholly on it for support. You can be quite sure that the FSB and GRU keep close tabs and cultivate internal factions constantly. It's the one thing they do well. If Prigozhin smells danger, what does he do? He tries to make himself a national hero that's more trouble that it's worth to eliminate. In fact, that's exactly what he's doing now. If he gets a summons from Moscow and demurs, he'd be dead in a week. What Putin can offer Prigozhin's lieutenants is decisively safer and better.

Absolutely.  We also have recent and relative historical precedent in the Donbas in 2015.  The Russians used a combination of groups to fight against Ukraine to minimize how many Russian forces had to cross over the border.  To do this the Kremlin used a combination of state resources and those of certain oligarchs.  Part of the mafia system is that lower levels are expected to fund/staff projects authorized by senior levels.  It is a way to show loyalty and prove oneself useful.

The issue Russia quickly ran into is that a lot of the so-called separatist militias were working at cross purposes with Kremlin goals.  Some were sucking up resources and not doing much in the way of fighting, for example.  A few really stupid Cossack units even went so far as to intercept supplies, steal them, then sell them on the black market.

Russia's solution was to "remove" troublesome leaders by convincing them they should retire or retiring them the old fashioned way.  The stubborn and weakest holdouts were, in fact, forcefully removed by Wagner units.  The stronger ones likely were killed by GRU or FSB operations.  The result was the same in that the troublemakers were removed and the men under their command reorganized under new leadership that understood what was expected of them.

Here is a good article written as these purges were happening:

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/cossacks-face-reprisals-as-rebel-groups-clash-in-eastern-ukraine.html

And this one from Jamestown:

Quote

Purging (including physical liquidation) of the so-called “opposition forces” confronting Igor Plotnitsky, the then-head of the self-proclaimed “Luhansk People’s Republic” (late 2014–early 2015). Ukrainian sources have claimed that Wagner Group was responsible for the “liquidation of opposition leaders, as well as militants from ‘unlawful military groups,’ Cossacks and other military formations,” including many well-known separatist leaders ([noms de guerre] ‘Foma,’ ‘Kosogor,’ ‘Batman’).[li] It is also known that Wagner Group conducted disarmaments of whole (para)military units, with the best-known case being the disarmament of the “Odessa” formation, which was securing control over strategically important Izvaryne[lii] (an urban-type settlement located in Luhansk Oblast and a central transit point on the Russo-Ukrainian border). After his withdrawal from occupied Donbas, Strelkov/Girkin offered an extremely far-reaching assessment of Wagner Group and its role in the above-mentioned capacity by so-called “cleaners” (tchistilshiki). Speaking on the prospect of his return to the area, the Russian militant asked rhetorically, “Where do I return, straight to the basement [prison]? Or should I repeat the fate of [Aleksey] Mozgovoy [the leader of the pro-Russian Prizrak Brigade], assassinated by the ‘unknown Ukrainian subversive group’? Although […] every idiot knows that Mr. Plotnitsky has something to do with this. As well as this amazing PMC Wagner.”[liii]

https://jamestown.org/program/unleashing-the-pmcs-and-irregulars-in-ukraine-crimea-and-donbas/

The day Prig crosses a line and Putin doesn't see him as useful, he is gone.  One way or another.  His organization will not revolt because Prig is removed, especially if they get to keep their pensions.

Steve

PS. if anybody has a link to the infamous video of Wagner forces using Tigrs cleaning out the Cossack group robbing the supply route into Luhansk (I believe it is the one mentioned above in Izvaryne) I would appreciate it.  The video was a plea for help by the Cossacks as Wagner cut them to pieces.  I've wanted to repost it several times in the past year, but can not find it.

[sburke]

Too bad James Gandolfini passed away.  He'd be the prime guy to play Prig.  Wallace Shawn from "the Princess bride" could play the master strategist Putin.

 

[kevinkin]

And Christopher Nolan's part in Oppenheimer this summer. Darn, they did transform him into the look of the scientist. But the looks do resemble Putin too. Intentional? Nay. 

[panzermartin]

Victory day parade in Moscow is on, spot something unusual? I think a bit shorter this time and didn't that many tanks/vehicles, or I missed them 

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by panzermartin

[chuckdyke]

Nothing beats Retro Tank RT 34 sounds good.

[Hapless]

Yeah. I missed the speech, but apart from massed marching it looks like there was a single T34-85, a load of Tigrs, S-300/400s, ICBMs and some Bumerangs.

To quote one of the commentators on Sky: "Is that it?"