How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Artkin said:

Well India is poised to overtake China in population soon if not already.

Still not much use as a metric though. China massively outnumbers the US, but which currency does the vast majority of the world trade in? And yes, it's a function of how historical events played out, but suggesting that numbers define position in the world, or how effective is a particular state, avoids some pretty stark realities.

The systems using those numbers are what matter. 

Which is what the Russian MoD is learning the hard way in Ukraine. 

[akd]

Some more clips of APKWS in use (overlap with previous):

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1655125622065188867?s=20

[Kinophile]

37 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I think relative to the rest of world as it was when we entered 2022, India will come out stronger (not the strongest). It will benefit the most from the changes coming about because of this God awful war. This has nothing to do with largest or strongest. Just which country, in relative terms, becomes the winner over the next decade.  That outcome is not certain. That's why I said gun to my head - a gut feeling. 

Yes but India is not affected and won't be transformed by this war.  It'll continue on as it has,  slowly improving, regressing in some ares, stagnating in others.it's not going to suddenly Great Leap Forward, ( in 7 years or a decade) because Russia was defeated on the coast of the Sea of Azov. 

For better or worse,  both UKR and Russia will leave this war very different from when they entered. The same (democracy v autocracy)  but... Different. Probably more intense versions of both. 

India will just muddle on,  like the rest of us. 

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, womble said:

"India will weather the storm better than other nations." Which is vastly different from "coming out on top".

Six of one, half a dozen of the other. See ya in 7 years and we can compare notes. 

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

India will just muddle on,  like the rest of us. 

Sure, but the India has a better relative upside in its muddling then the rest. The have challenges and could backtrack. That's why I'm writing from my gut. Having the bomb and not being China puts them in a pretty good place with the west. 
It does with me away.  

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sure, but the India has a better relative upside in its muddling then the rest. The have challenges and could backtrack. That's why I'm writing from my gut. Having the bomb and not being China puts them in a pretty good place with the west. 
It does with me away.  

Jeebus, can we just stop please?  Yes, fine, India will rule the world in 7 years by leveraging the economic power of their hundreds of millions of shockingly impoverished, barely nourished, poorly educated, utterly neglected rural people. Great, I completely agree.  Now can we please drop this?

[kimbosbread]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have been saying since before this war started that a frozen conflict, with no shooting, is not something Russia can sustain long term.  The regime will not survive a weakened and humiliated state indefinitely.

If Russia was smaller, perhaps. But without military to oppress some central asians and enough working rail infrastructure to move said military and regular goods, you cant hold together the empire. And thats on top of awful demographics.

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Gun to my head; India comes out on top if we could fast forward 7 years. 

I doubt it. I think India could benefit, but they have enormous structural problems, exacerbated by awful bureacracy and corruption. For example, water- they still have tons of issues with open irrigation ditches, losing something like 50% of their water to evaporation, and water tables are dropping badly. Mexico and Egypt solved this problem in the 70s IIRC, and economists have basically recommended to India to follow the same fixes since then. Hasnt happened. I do think India will move closer to US orbit, however. There is zero reason that the major democracies shouldn’t be very close.

You know who’s gonna come out on top? Who is the greatest empire since the Romans, except 1000x better? You know who. The major competitors to US power- Russia, China, the EU, maybe India, maybe Brazil seem content to shoot themselves in the foot over and over. Europe wants to be a continent wide retirement home. Russia, well that ship has sailed. China wants to be #1, but their covid response and pissing off their neighbors and moving back 50 years politically… yeah no, not with their demographics. Brazil, the country of the future. SE Asia, yeah no, not with demographics and climate change.

Here’s a question- is their a better western leader than Biden? I say that as someone who is not a fan, but figures he is by far the best of the lot. And I don’t think our competitors have anyone better either. Noted political philosopher Douglas Adams positited that permanent brain damage or gross stupidity were things that could elevate an ordinary politican or military leader to true greatness.

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Douglas Adams positited that permanent brain damage or gross stupidity were things that could elevate an ordinary politican or military leader to true greatness.

in that case be prepared all of you to bow to my greatness!    India, psshaw,  I have the above qualities in spades!

Incidentally I have been to India multiple times.  To anyone who thinks they are destined for world power greatness I submit the following.  This is a pic I took from the Westin hotel.  It is the main highway heading toward Gurgaon, IT capital for India. (that isn't my camera issue, the air was really that bad.)

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by sburke

[kevinkin]

13 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Noted political philosopher Douglas Adams

Didn't he also say a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

Quick take on usefulness of the 80 or so Leo1s supposedly in UKR.  Writer ways will be good tool for mopping up bypassed RU trenches/strongpoints, allowing main force to keep moving ahead.  Also believes will be good for attacking RU forces holed up in urban redoubts.  My personal take is that having a highly mobile pillbox w a big gun and an MG plus good optics is generally a good thing relative to only having AFVs, assuming the logistics cost is not overburdensome.  I think of these similar to the AMX10 -- adding firepower to what up to now were UKR mech units just MGs or BMP mounted guns.  Plus I love tanks.  This is known bias on my part. 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/7/2167931/-Quick-Explainer-Leopard-1s-to-arrive-in-time-with-a-key-role-to-play

 

[sburke]

See!  We didn't really want it.  Here is our REAL secret plan!

Wagner Group leader now claims Russians were not that keen on taking Bakhmut (yahoo.com)
 

Quote

 

Ukrainska Pravda
Sat, May 6, 2023 at 2:02 PM PDT
Ahead of their previously announced withdrawal from the city of Bakhmut after many months of trying to capture it, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group fighters, has said that the city has no strategic significance for the Russian Federation, and claimed that capturing it was not the main goal of "Operation Bakhmut Meat-grinder".

Source: Prigozhin’s comment, shared by his press service

Quote: "It should be noted that Operation Bakhmut Meat-grinder was mainly designed not to capture the settlement of Bakhmut, but to grind down the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and provide respite for the Russian army to restore combat capability. The Bakhmut meat grinder has accomplished its task in full."

Details: Prigozhin said that operational space has now been opened up in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and "the remaining 2.42 square kilometres is of no importance for the operational space".

"The settlement of Bakhmut has no strategic importance for further advancement to the west. What is of strategic importance for the advancement of the Russian army is capturing the settlements of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka and Konstantynivka (the  Donbas Ring), to the west of which flat territories open up where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will find it difficult to maintain defence in the event of an offensive by the superior forces of the Russian army," he said.

According to Prigozhin, on 8 October 2022, he and General Sergey Surovikin of the Russian Armed Forces took the decision to launch Operation Bakhmut Meat-grinder, "an assault on the settlement of Bakhmut aimed at forcing Volodymyr Zelenskyy to deploy as many forces as possible to hold Bakhmut".

"The purpose of Operation Bakhmut Meat-grinder was to enable units of the Russian army to occupy advantageous lines of defence, to mobilise, re-equip and train personnel, and increase their combat potential," he says in justification.

The mercenary leader claims that the joint "operation" with Surovikin was supposed to last for six months, until 8 April 2023.

Prigozhin also said that after leaving Bakhmut, the Wagner Group "will go to training camps to restore combat capability and retrain units, and will stay there until the threat to Russia and Russian citizens disappears as part of this military operation".

 

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Help me out here.  How does this make Putin look strong? His dog threw a public temper tantrum and threatened to walk away from a military offensive and take his troops with him.  The guy gets pulled into Kremlin and promised whatever he wants, essentially giving into blackmail.

Why on earth would Putin “stage” this? The optics are terrible.  Like what is the angle here?

From Putin's perspective, the MoD is one institution that he absolutely must keep in check. One way to do that? By having Prigozhin and Wagner as a stick to beat them up with. He must also have convenient scapegoats when this is all done. In this case, he has two that spend their time attacking each other instead of him. But it's not just Putin driving this per se...you also have Shoigu, Gerasimov, Kadyrov and Prigozhin with their own agendas that require, at least for the moment, vying for Putin's favor. 

Is it terrible optics? To us, of course. In Russia? I think I'd say it has been shown to work for dictatorships in that milieu.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Man that is pretty Rube Goldberg.  So how is this going to somehow convince MoD to get back in line, seems a bit stretched?  Also, so which is it?  “Putin has iron clad control of the military so Prig is boxed in” or “The military keeps pushing out of lines so Putin is using Prig and Wagner as a counter-ploy?”

I mean I have heard both narratives on this.  If Putin has iron clad control of the military then simply order them to give over the ammo.  If he does not have iron clad control of the military getting a merc to publicly shame them could just as easily blow up in faces.  Even internally this makes Putin look weak - especially against the military, which may or may not be out of line. Anyone think that Putin is not a master-chess player after all?  Maybe he is actually just flailing here trying to keep everyone happy and his control is maybe not as tight as we thought?

 

Putin is a highly effective player in internal Russian power plays. What he has constructed here is a situation where Wagner is his attack dog, provider of 'successful' military narratives, 'why are we unsuccessful?' military narratives and yet doesn't control its own logistics, supplies and ammunition. Meanwhile, the MoD controls those sinews but is continually embarrassed by accusations of malfeasance, ineptitude and wrecking. 

Putin then sits above the fray and Russians see it continually demonstrated that both power centers must kiss his ring to prevail. The model here isn't Stalin, btw...look more similar to how Hitler used the SS/SA against the power of the German military. It's all personalist faction juggling.

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

The most logical explanation is simply dividing power between different security branches. The more they quarrell, the better- it's natural tendency of all autocrats to saw divisions and uncertainity. It's also  logical manifestation of Tsarist power from its very beginnings- to rise up from chaos, so it could be tamed by central authority, as opposed to social contract theory that underlines political order in Western countries.  So more Warhammer 40k rather than Hobbes/Rousseau/Locke. Putin himself additionally is somebody with history like that, so perhaps it could be (in his view beneficial) to create again some small chaos in controled conditions.

That being said, there are probably very real discussions in muscovite top about ammo usage and rationale behind Bakhmut head-walling as well. @billbindc is right that Prig is doing public drama, bacause he feels he can and have boss backup.

All of this. To your latter point, you get at a key reason why Russia continually burns itself in this war. Of a certainty, the leadership of the MoD knows what their ammo usage is. They know what they are going to need to have a chance at blunting a Ukrainian offensive. They know that, at the very best, Bakhmut acts as a shield to the LOC's south and west of it and has otherwise been a vast waste of combat power.

But none of that is all that important to Putin.

Of course, he wants to win but the real goal is first to retain power and that requires controlling the Russian government. Which means, of course, that making sure the regular armed forces don't get above themselves in the course of a long, high intensity war. The war, first and foremost for Putin, is in Moscow.

Edited May 7, 2023 by billbindc

[womble]

36 minutes ago, sburke said:

See!  We didn't really want it.  Here is our REAL secret plan!

Wagner Group leader now claims Russians were not that keen on taking Bakhmut (yahoo.com)
 

row

Interesting. Usually, it's a case of "If Russia claims the opposition have done something awful, it's actually them who's done it." Looks like this is an attempt at flipping that into "We have done something clever, honest" when it's actually the other side that have done this. Probably.

I'd offer as evidence that Ukraine's force reconstitution efforts have, apparently stood up at least half a dozen fresh brigades, properly equipped and trained, whereas Russia has thrown just about enough barely-trained and equipped warm bodies into the line to stop it just evaporating... Assuming that this isn't all just UKR smoke-and-mirrors.

[kevinkin]

They say there are two ways to lead: you either divide and conquer, or you build and unite. We know Putin's tactics. Masters can artfully use smoke and mirrors to mask and confuse the two. Not sure if I would call Putin a master, but he does have staying power within Russia. 

[danfrodo]

A weary world rejoices.... New Perun video!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIYC_WUSw4c

 

[Haiduk]

Probably recent (March likely) video of UKR Tochka-U launch

 

[billbindc]

https://jamestown.org/program/collapse-of-the-russian-empires-main-historical-pillar/ 
 

Of interest.

[Beleg85]

Girkin is in beautifully grim mood again, rambling on TG. Nothing new, one could say, but he is starting to be very excplicit about what is happening. Basically, according to him Russia is already defeated (past tense) which is clearly visible to people with experience and head on their necks. There are no goals in this war, and subsequently no strategy. Time that passed from last wave of Ukrainian successes was completelly wasted by Russian high command, no national mobilization nor his beloved idea of Great Patriotic War 2.0 was put in motion.  Nation is on the verge of catastrophe, it simply don't realize it yet (he profets civil war again, but this is fairly constant).

Just mentioning to cheer peple up. Unfortunatelly, new wave of air attacks hit Ukraine as we write.

 

Btw. to calm nerves even more, a portion of art.

Edited May 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

Perun made some good points in his his 'counterattack' video.  One of the big takeaways for me was that much of the pledged armor & artillery systems for 2023 haven't even arrived yet.  Which means that UKR knows it will be able to replace equipment losses w ally-provided equipment, and soon.  Maybe RU is making more BMPs but not at the rate that UKR will receive armor this campaign season. 

And once again I'll get on my soapbox that UKR probably won't have giant, immediate counterattack.  it will have a series of events of varying size over the next 4 months, each one setting up RU for the next one, shaping the battlespace bit by bit and unhinging RU forces, bit by bit.

[chuckdyke]

8 hours ago, paxromana said:

Even Comms trenches should zig-zag for the same reason fighting trenches should.

Hard to dig zig zag with a mechanical digger.

[paxromana]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Hard to dig zig zag with a mechanical digger.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't work some way of doing it ... otherwisse those nice long straight trenches become death traps if the enemy takes even one section.

[womble]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Hard to dig zig zag with a mechanical digger.

Not as hard as doing it by hand...

I've seen digger operators do some clever tricks. Don't imagine a few sub-90 angles is much of a stretch.

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, womble said:

Not as hard as doing it by hand...

I've seen digger operators do some clever tricks. Don't imagine a few sub-90 angles is much of a stretch.

You need some skilled people for that. This fresh straight trench may tell us something.