How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in Politico on the realignment of the world's nations due to the war in Ukraine.  Primary focus is on relationships with China and the changing mindset of key European nations such as Germany and France away from trade at any cost.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/28/allies-against-china-europe-putin-xi-00089077

What I find most interesting in this article... no real mention of Russian influence.  Seems Russia is out of the game.  Go figure.

Steve

[Ales Dvorak]

2 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

Please send a link.

 

[Ales Dvorak]

Hmmmm ... manipulation?

Edited March 29, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Offshoot]

Those dastardly Kadyrovites had a master plan all along.

[JonS]

Tiktok is indeed a national security threat

[Fernando]

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-03-29/espana-enviara-los-primeros-seis-tanques-leopard-a-ucrania-tras-la-semana-santa.html

Spain will send the first 6 rehabilitated Leopard 2 after Easter time.

[...]The six tanks have already been rehabilitated at the Santa Bárbara Sistemas factory in Alcalá de Guadaíra (Seville) and this week they are carrying out firing exercises at the Cerro Muriano (Córdoba) maneuver range. After receiving their combat certification, they will be transferred by sea to Poland, where they will be handed over to the Ukrainian authorities.

This same week the four additional Leopard A4s that the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, announced to his counterpart Volodímir Zelenski during his second visit to Kiev, last February, are scheduled to arrive at the Santa Bárbara plant. Like the first six Leopards, they come from the Logistics Support Group 41, in the Zaragoza neighborhood of Casetas, where they had been stored for a decade. The sources consulted acknowledge, however, that the first tanks that were sent were the best preserved, for which reason only 2,500 hours of work were needed to set them up; while the latter required some 3,000. It is taken for granted that the cost of the rehabilitation of this second batch will be higher than the first (4.1 million in total, 683,300 euros per unit) and probably also the time required for it, about six weeks.[...]

[Ithikial_AU]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good article in Politico on the realignment of the world's nations due to the war in Ukraine.  Primary focus is on relationships with China and the changing mindset of key European nations such as Germany and France away from trade at any cost.

It's always been questionable in my mind that some economists and commentators reckon that globalisation is a force that prevents war. It adds a layer to the decision making but trade as an absolute block on major powers not going into conflict due to economic loss? Seems like economic study/dark arts trying rationalise human decision making, that wealth is all that matters to everybody, especially at a time of violent crisis?

If I cast my mind back to my Uni days about 20 years ago (I'm old now), you have three primary causes for conflict to break out:

- Nationalism / Territorial - "I disagree with you owning that piece of land"

- Ideological - "I disagree with the way you think and do things"

- Ethnic - "I disagree with your religion, language, upbringing, race... I disagree with who you are."

The idea was conflict in 19th and early 20th century was primarily driven by the first point. This switched over to ideological in the run up to WW2 and the Cold War. The post Cold War era has been focused more on Ethnic issues driving conflicts. Now they are generalisations and it's pretty easy to argue that for many conflicts there are more than one driver in play or one is in play while others are used as political smoke screen by political elites to justify entering a conflict. Not to mention outliers or the belligerent sides having different perceptions on what is driving the conflict.

There was no reason not to think ethnic driven issues would continue to be the primary driver most conflict into the 2020's but I think the dangling of the idea of USA pullback/isolationism during the Trump years emboldened a bunch of other global players to start pushing against the west as the 'world cop' was potentially off the beat. Nationalism and Ideology (latter a smokescreen?) have been able to pop up again as a result. If we find ourselves in another 1939 situation but this time the world opts to let it happen because, "we want our trade numbers to stay strong", I think is a bigger cross against humanity and our political systems. The fallout of not responding to unwarranted aggression is also likely to have a bigger impact on global stability.

Mark Twain may have been right all along... "The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog."

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good article in Politico on the realignment of the world's nations due to the war in Ukraine.  Primary focus is on relationships with China and the changing mindset of key European nations such as Germany and France away from trade at any cost.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/28/allies-against-china-europe-putin-xi-00089077

What I find most interesting in this article... no real mention of Russian influence.  Seems Russia is out of the game.  Go figure.

Steve

Interesting article. thanks. I watched a documentary about the havoc the Chinese are wrecking in Central Asia (countries like Uzbekistan, Tadzjikstan and Kazachstan) at the moment. Completly ruthless and even colonial policy. In the long run China is much more dangerous than Russia.

[Bulletpoint]

23 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Spain will send the first 6 rehabilitated Leopard 2 after Easter time.

Hopefully painted like easter eggs.

[kevinkin]

An essay on civilian life in a liberated city:

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/in-war-ravaged-lyman-ukrainians-live-underground-months-after-liberation/ar-AA199SiG

There's so much work to be done, it sort of blows the mind.

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by kevinkin

[Beetz]

4 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

It's always been questionable in my mind that some economists and commentators reckon that globalisation is a force that prevents war. It adds a layer to the decision making but trade as an absolute block on major powers not going into conflict due to economic loss? Seems like economic study/dark arts trying rationalise human decision making, that wealth is all that matters to everybody, especially at a time of violent crisis?

If I cast my mind back to my Uni days about 20 years ago (I'm old now), you have three primary causes for conflict to break out:

- Nationalism / Territorial - "I disagree with you owning that piece of land"

- Ideological - "I disagree with the way you think and do things"

- Ethnic - "I disagree with your religion, language, upbringing, race... I disagree with who you are."

I also think a shift in the balance of powers is essential for nearly any major conflict to break out. And economy by itself helps provoking a war in certain circumstances. If it feeds into the primary causes and disputes.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Beetz

[Audgisil]

I just saw in the news that Zelenskyy has invited Xi to visit Ukraine. I think this is a very clever move. It'll be hard for Xi to turn down the invitation while still trying to maintain China's self-appointed image as "arbiter of peace". However, I find it unlikely that Xi accepts. If China did though, Russia will scream like a stuck pig when Ukraine takes advantage of the opportunity to talk one-on-one with China. I can only image what clever things Ukraine might offer or what opportunities they might use to generate positive press.

[chuckdyke]

A familiar sight.

 

[BornGinger]

7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I watched a documentary about the havoc the Chinese are wrecking in Central Asia (countries like Uzbekistan, Tadzjikstan and Kazachstan) at the moment.

Part of the new "Silk Road" from China to Europe. There are programs from the German DW about this on YouTube.

Quote

[Audgisil] I just saw in the news that Zelenskyy has invited Xi to visit Ukraine... I find it unlikely that Xi accepts.

Business with "The West" seems to be important to China so Zelensky's invitation to Xi might still be accepted.

Edited March 29, 2023 by BornGinger

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-holds-back-on-southern-counteroffensive/

Zaporizhzhia not getting hot yet. Interesting how the corporal compares it to Kherson:

Quote

"It's getting more intense these days, but it's much less intense than Kherson was. I'd never seen that much heavy gear in my life," he said of the Kherson operation.

With up to a hundred tanks and a couple of hundreds of armored vehicles, "it looked like f***ing Mad Max," he says. He says he hasn’t seen a similar level of concentration of equipment where he is now.

By which I mean, Kherson ramped up very quickly. Journos from the KI (I think) visited the Kherson front before the offensive and didn't see a large build up. Shortly after though, the ZSU poured in the assault force and things kicked off. 

I wonder if that's how Zaporizhzhia will happen,  after two more months of corrosion. 

Kharkiv was certainly more clearly building for longer.  

Edited March 29, 2023 by Kinophile

[Harmon Rabb]

As kids on the internet say these days...Based!

[kevinkin]

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/03/28/how-us-trainers-helped-ukraine-reinvent-its-doctrine/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

"Clark acknowledged “we can’t quantify” the impact that concepts- and capability-focused advising had on Ukraine’s armed forces, but he said many of the nation’s battlefield successes were linked to ideas honed with SATMO’s help — namely logistics and decentralized command philosophy."

We were preparing them for the mother of all modern insurgencies and got the mother of all modern conventional wars. 

"With the war in its second year, other countries in Europe are buying American weapons to fill gaps left when sending existing stocks to Ukraine. When new gear arrives in the donor countries, Clark said, his troops will be there to help get U.S. allies up to speed."

Once again, some make out well during wartime. 

They are going to have build new wings on libraries to hold all the books devoted to this war given the wall to wall coverage and every aspect. 

[cesmonkey]

5 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

As kids on the internet say these days...Based!

Russia might already be using depleted uranium rounds in Ukraine, but it's not verified:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-depleted-uranium-munitions-uk-military-aid-tank-armor-1790756
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-arming-its-tanks-controversial-new-bullet-39682

https://tass.com/defense/1036958

Quote

Russia’s upgraded T-80BV tank to feature capability of firing depleted uranium shells
The use of depleted uranium ammunition does not violate any international treaties, expert says

 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers on the front prepare mortar fire, near Bakhmut, in Donetsk Oblast, March 27, 2023. LIBKOS / AP"

[chrisl]

15 hours ago, Kinophile said:

It's been asked that we don't link the Ukrainian Volunteer blog until He/they are better verified. 

So no direct link.

Buuut.....

This is more a curiousity post about something they spoke of. It isn't about weather they themselves are who they say they are,  but about whether what they note is accurate and/or realistic. 

To quote:

Thoughts? What band radar are they talking about? 

You can buy a variety of radars and lidars that will fit on a drone. The radars are available in mm wave, so you can get fairly high resolution with that.  A combination of drone and automotive applications are driving the size and power down.

[A Canadian Cat]

9 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

- Nationalism / Territorial - "I disagree with you owning that piece of land"

- Ideological - "I disagree with the way you think and do things"

- Ethnic - "I disagree with your religion, language, upbringing, race... I disagree with who you are."

The hope of course was that increased exposure to other ideas and people would mean the differences would be less important. The issue is that it can help with the ethnic differences (we really can learn to get along), perhaps a small amount with ideology (right up until the ideological leaders say peaceful disagreement is not allowed) but not a damn bit with nationalism.

So, it turns out it's not enough.

 

9 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

Mark Twain may have been right all along... "The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog."

Yeah, sigh.

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

It's always been questionable in my mind that some economists and commentators reckon that globalisation is a force that prevents war. It adds a layer to the decision making but trade as an absolute block on major powers not going into conflict due to economic loss? Seems like economic study/dark arts trying rationalise human decision making, that wealth is all that matters to everybody, especially at a time of violent crisis?

If I cast my mind back to my Uni days about 20 years ago (I'm old now), you have three primary causes for conflict to break out:

- Nationalism / Territorial - "I disagree with you owning that piece of land"

- Ideological - "I disagree with the way you think and do things"

- Ethnic - "I disagree with your religion, language, upbringing, race... I disagree with who you are."

The idea was conflict in 19th and early 20th century was primarily driven by the first point. This switched over to ideological in the run up to WW2 and the Cold War. The post Cold War era has been focused more on Ethnic issues driving conflicts. Now they are generalisations and it's pretty easy to argue that for many conflicts there are more than one driver in play or one is in play while others are used as political smoke screen by political elites to justify entering a conflict. Not to mention outliers or the belligerent sides having different perceptions on what is driving the conflict.

There was no reason not to think ethnic driven issues would continue to be the primary driver most conflict into the 2020's but I think the dangling of the idea of USA pullback/isolationism during the Trump years emboldened a bunch of other global players to start pushing against the west as the 'world cop' was potentially off the beat. Nationalism and Ideology (latter a smokescreen?) have been able to pop up again as a result. If we find ourselves in another 1939 situation but this time the world opts to let it happen because, "we want our trade numbers to stay strong", I think is a bigger cross against humanity and our political systems. The fallout of not responding to unwarranted aggression is also likely to have a bigger impact on global stability.

Mark Twain may have been right all along... "The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog."

Great post, Ithikial.  I was one of the dimwits who thought that modern leaders would not be so stupid as to wreck their economic interests for some extra territory.  I think we can safely say I was wrong.  I still have a hard time understanding how someone could be so stupid, could be so ego-driven reckless.  But it is the reality. 

When I look at China attacking Taiwan, I think "that would be beyond stupid, no sane person would do that".  And then I check myself and say "yes, dictators are that stupid and power hungry and have the unilateral power to make it happen". -- like having over 1 Billion people under your control is somehow not enough????

[Kinophile]

The never ending Russian opsec issues. 

 Best part, "These are based on real events,  by the  way". 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-holds-back-on-southern-counteroffensive/

Zaporizhzhia not getting hot yet. Interesting how the corporal compares it to Kherson:

By which I mean, Kherson ramped up very quickly. Journos from the KI (I think) visited the Kherson front before the offensive and didn't see a large build up. Shortly after though, the ZSU poured in the assault force and things kicked off. 

I wonder if that's how Zaporizhzhia will happen,  after two more months of corrosion. 

Kharkiv was certainly more clearly building for longer.  

And by contrast:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1640828059317071872?t=u43WkKG865r9PK1h6tiaow&s=19

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

And by contrast:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1640828059317071872?t=u43WkKG865r9PK1h6tiaow&s=19

And UKR will be watching to see how much RU material moves to counter this alleged buildup, which may be real or may be a feint.  And that may depend on whether RU takes it seriously -- if yes, don't attack. If no, attack.

(though I'd be shocked if UKR did anything more than a raid across that great big river)

Edited March 29, 2023 by danfrodo