How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, JonS said:

again, which curve?

You are so very clever, Socrates (or Pythagoras, if you prefer). Things are so much clearer now thanks to your incisive contribution.

[DesertFox]

Generally NZZ is a reliable source. German govt appears to have asked Switzerland to sell available unused Leo2 tanks to Rheinmetall for redistribution to Ukraine. Basing on the Gepard 35mm ammo heck-meck, I expect how the answer to this inquiry will be. Anyways, lets see how this evolves.

 

 

 

[Holien]

OK for folks that have not seen this latest video of a UK volunteer back from Ukraine.

 

Key points that I found useful...

1. Sausage can be used as a reward... (payoff at end of video)
2. The difference between the Ranks and Officers - really interesting insight at start of video and I am not sure how it plays out in combat effectiveness? - Might have been repeated in WW2 as once you get a lot of new people in the Officer distinction might / gets blurred?
3. Ukraine soldiers still makes mistakes - clumping  - training really needs to be upped
4. Base camp life and stealing of kit
5. There are still idiots who support Russia and have tried to infiltrate the land based forces... - See Sausage story..
6. Really explains the background to Ukraine and Russian military / original training and impact.
7. Rules of engagement / restraint being followed by Ukraine on keeping civilian causalities low.
8. How some folk in the units can do things / attack without the backing of command. - Shooting of boats to stop men trying to get across the river at the Russians.
9. Russian living quarters - "like a bunch of junky student squatters had been living there" -
10. Also some good points about food rations and where Russians had advantage (ammo and types of it) - does explain looting to some extent by Russians - no excuse but explains it...

So IMO worth listening to in background as you work on the PC.

BTW the interviewer is a TableTop Gamer and does WW2 gaming and I have met him - very nice chap and down to earth - a funnier JonS - but JonS knows more about the pointy end than Lindybeige and is a bit more pithy...

 

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Holien
Added bit re Lindybeige

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3. The days of young men like our poor physics student here being free to let 'commoners' do the hard fighting are done. Piles of Oxfordians, Yalies and Toronto Blues died in the trenches or burned alive in aircraft.

Those of the humanities departments - why not. But it is not wise to use those with core useful skills as cannon fodder just for the sake of demonstrating that the social contract is being kept. That is the job for sportsmen, actors, junior sons of politicians, etc. BTW I read that the first British military casualty of the war was a lawyer by profession. On the other hand,  Oxfordians dealing with physics is something which I associate more with the Manahattan Project, Bletchley Park, radar, operations research during the battle of Atlantic, etc. than trenches.

In Polish there is a saying about this situation "shooting at the enemy with diamonds" (originally a comment about a famous poet shot manning a barricade during the Warsaw uprising).

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

I think this is a really weak article. The basic fact that "Zeitenwende" is all talk with nothing actually happening is true and to some that may come as a surprise. But after all, Scholz was elected for being Merkel 2.0. That said, the fact that not more money was spent so far probably boils down to what I said earlier: more money won't make the Bundeswehr administration more efficient and at the very best it will just take more time.

The rest, I think, is very inaccurate and even naive. I'll just go over a few examples:

Quote

Around the same time, the government passed a €200 billion package to subsidize Germans’ energy bills, an intiative bound to go down well with voters but do nothing for the country’s security.

This is basically saying: Scholz promised 100 billion € for the army but instead spent 200 billions on German's energy bills. But in reality both is money Germany doesn't have, it is financed by credit. So, it is not like the government took money from one project and spent it on another. Moreover, the 200 billions were literally about families not being able to pay their energy bills. Does anyone think US voters would have looked kindly on arms deliveries to Ukraine when at the same time they didn't have electricity and/or heating ? The 200 billions, in parts, silenced the discussion about whether we can afford to take part in the sanctions against Russia and in that regard (I won't go into the actual details of spending the money) it was money that probably helped more in the current situation than the Zeitenwende-money ever will.

Quote

The party’s victory, which arguably had more to do with the weakness of its opponents than its own attractiveness, elevated a motley crew of old-school, anti-American leftists. Among them was Rolf Mützenich, the leader of the SPD parliamentary group, whose main political aim (until the Russian invasion of Ukraine) was to rid Germany of U.S. nuclear warheads.  

This is basically the same thing as with criticising Isreal. Not everyone who does is anti-semitic and not everyone who criticises US politics is anti-American. Many, many Germans protested against nukes on German soil back in the day which was part of a larger pacifist movement - many of the Greens (who are now very pro-weapons deliveries to Ukraine) were there, too.

Quote

But he knew Germans — who tend to think the worse of America — would buy it anyway. And they have. An in-depth study released earlier this month by Allensbach, a respected polling institute, found that only 46 percent of Germans consider the U.S. to be a reliable ally. In other words, America’s nearly eight decades of protecting Germans from Russia have not been enough to convince a majority of them that the U.S. is their friend.

This ties in with the above and is both naive and inaccurate. First of all, we tend to forget that Germany is West Germany + GDR. The latter was not protected by the USA but was their enemy. A detail but an important one. Moreover, during the Cold War, Germans didn't have that much of a choice: The USA were still an occupying power, not our friends. During that time many GIs were here and a lot of personal ties between Germany and USA were made. There were and are many personal friendships but that is a different thing. Of course most West Germans were grateful that US and NATO kept the Soviets at bay. But at the same time everyone was aware that even without global nuclear apocalypse, Germany was likely to end up as wasteland in case of the Cold War going hot. Better dead than red was something many here didn't subscribe to. Now, Vietman was a bit before my time. In my personal experience the real low point was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Being bashed for not joining a war that violated international law and was based on lies and fabricated evidence doesn't make good friends. Do I need to go on with Guantanamo, water-boarding and stuff like that, that most here found entirely disgusting (possibly on a My Lai level)?

That only 46% think that the US are a reliable ally is related to the above but in addition Germans do watch the news. Even before Trump there was much talk (from the Bush and the Obama administration) about "Old Europe" and especially under Obama there was a perceived shift towards Asia instead of Europe. Then there were all the NSA-shenanigans. Tapping into our Chancellor's mobile? Reliable allies, for certain. (Remember that Snowden is considered a hero, not a traitor by the majority of Germans for exactly this reason.) 

I don't think I have to discuss Trump here. Suffice to say that it reminded many who were naive about states being friends that states interact based on interests and that the US (like probably all other countries in the world, this is not about US-bashing) would be a reliable ally for just as long as it is in their interest to be.

Apologies if my words hurt feelings. This is a difficult topic. Let me say that many Germans like US culture - um, no, US lifestyle, the USA are still too young to have something that qualifies as culture - have US friends, love to travel there and all that. This personal level is just not the same as trusting the USA as a state or the US government.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Today's Hromadske video is on the 93rd in Bakhmut and starts by talking to a man who was mobilized on Jan 8 and has just been transferred to Bakhmut after training

From this I assume that effectively he could have about a month of training with the rest of the time spent on transfers between depots and units.  That sounds about as much as a country in a middle of full scale war can afford to spend on training  an infantryman.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

First of all, we tend to forget that Germany is West Germany + GDR. The latter was not protected by the USA but was their enemy.

That is an interesting insight. In communist Poland a staunch majority of the population considered Soviet Union as the enemy and all NATO countries as hopeful allies. US was absolutely idolised. I can speak for Poland out of my own experience, but judging as how the Czechs, Balts, Slovaks etc. foreign policy looks like I am quite sure the sentiment was similar. 

 It is interesting, that DDR was different. During the Communism Soviets considered DDR to be the most reliable ally, and everybody knew about Stasi infiltrated like half of the society, and the dissident movement was weak so maybe there was something to it 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

A pity it took the generation who had nothing to do with it to put the record straight to their everlasting credit. 

True. But that is the way we humans work. Repressing those memories enabled a whole society to go on, I guess.

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is an interesting insight. In communist Poland a staunch majority of the population considered Soviet Union as the enemy and all NATO countries as hopeful allies. US was absolutely idolised. I can speak for Poland out of my own experience, but judging as how the Czechs, Balts, Slovaks etc. foreign policy looks like I am quite sure the sentiment was similar. 

 It is interesting, that DDR was different. During the Communism Soviets considered DDR to be the most reliable ally, and everybody knew about Stasi infiltrated like half of the society, and the dissident movement was weak so maybe there was something to it 

Ok, I'll have to admit that I am from West Germany and am no expert on East German psychology. As you say, also in the DDR US lifestyle (especially the Music and Jeans and all that) was loved. I was more referring to the fact that in case of war the US would not have protected the country but instead US Army and NVA would have been enemies. That said, sense of duty is a very German thing and I've heard quite a few times that NVA soldiers would, of course, have done their duty. Maybe a bit schizophrenic...

Edited March 3, 2023 by Butschi

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Ok, I'll have to admit that I am from West Germany and am no expert on East German psychology. As you say, also in the DDR US lifestyle (especially the Music and Jeans and all that) was loved. I was more referring to the fact that in case of war the US Army and the NVA would have been enemies. That said, sense of duty is a very German thing and I've heard quite a few times that NVA soldiers would, of course, have done their duty. Maybe a bit schizophrenic...

Ours (Polish People's Army) were supposed to attack Denmark. Safely out to the flank, which limited the opportunity to shoot Soviets in the back and cross the front in parade formation with colours flying. Conscripts would be unreliable, however the officer cadre was to some extent alienated from the population and mentally sovietised. A friend of mine observed that one could always tell where the soldiers' flats were on a Christmas Eve , because from all other places you could hear  people singing christmas carols, and from soldiers' homes the sound of ballads in Russian was coming.

[Lethaface]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This whole NATO 2% thing is a political game.  First off 2% GDP is not a signal that a country is contributing to collective defence.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country

As you can see from the top 10 we have a mixed bag if you unpack the numbers.  Some like UK and France have large effective militaries - for some very good reason.  Others like Greece are using military spending as a form of green welfare - massive pers costs do not translate directly to capability that can actually be contributed effectively.

The former US presidents angle was less “do your part” and more “buy American”.  The threat to pull out of NATO was empty and everyone knew it.  The US is the biggest arms producer and exporter on the planet (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/) - and NATO is a huge market ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/)

So pulling out of NATO would mean that STANAGs would no longer apply nor would US influence in that arms market, so ya…really dumb idea and no one really took it seriously in the business.

As to freeloading on collective defence, well we could build monuments to that over the last 30 years.  Not sure what the answer is, but 2% is a red herring.  I think Putin has done more to push for effective NATO spending in a year than US pressure has done in a decade, but we will see how long that lasts.

Agreed. Interestingly NL is quite high in those lists considering our size/population. I haven't heard our Defense ministry saying we aren't ready to defend our country, but then again only Germany or Belgium could invade our country by land and given their readiness that should be doable

But there have been plenty of reports of ammo shortages and other issues hindering readiness. And personnel shortages across the line. I have read about actual NATO capability shortcomings, about 'heavy infantry' although I'm not sure / can't remember what exactly the shortcomings are.
I guess the issue for at least NL partly is, what to invest/focus upon? In the cold war our 'role' was more clear, we had our sector in the defense plan for Germany and the required capability was to field a full Corps to keep it short. What should we invest in now? Double our F-35s? Focus on light infantry (KCT, Marines, airmobile, recon, etc), go wild on new (to be developed) lethal-drone-enabled light infantry? Or just get a bit of all of the stuff (not best idea imo). etc.

The politicians don't really have a clue imo and the military is probably largely of the opinion that we should first restore our 'current capabilities' to acceptable levels. Than come the bureaucratic issues, geopolitical interests and how to weigh those, etc. 

Anyway Indeed Putin did more for effective NATO spending than anything else, while I think it's good to stay critical/skeptical but there is at least serious attention for the subject now. It will take some years obviously but in the end I expect we and others in Europe will get their ****e together at least better than the last 20-30 years.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Lethaface

[Artkin]

5 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

most interesting ones:

 

Hits On Ukrainian Vehicles And Equipment (101)
Misses On Ukrainian Vehicles And Equipment (37)

There's a T-84U Oplot on that list, news to me.

[Grigb]

The famed Magyar's drone recon unit received orders to leave Bakhmut.

The UKR withdrawal appears to be underway.

[UPDATE] There is no withdrawal, according to soldier from 93rd Brigade. Nonetheless, I believe they are evacuating all unnecessary units.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Grigb

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

I think this is a really weak article. The basic fact that "Zeitenwende" is all talk with nothing actually happening is true and to some that may come as a surprise. But after all, Scholz was elected for being Merkel 2.0. That said, the fact that not more money was spent so far probably boils down to what I said earlier: more money won't make the Bundeswehr administration more efficient and at the very best it will just take more time.

The rest, I think, is very inaccurate and even naive. I'll just go over a few examples:

This is basically saying: Scholz promised 100 billion € for the army but instead spent 200 billions on German's energy bills. But in reality both is money Germany doesn't have, it is financed by credit. So, it is not like the government took money from one project and spent it on another. Moreover, the 200 billions were literally about families not being able to pay their energy bills. Does anyone think US voters would have looked kindly on arms deliveries to Ukraine when at the same time they didn't have electricity and/or heating ? The 200 billions, in parts, silenced the discussion about whether we can afford to take part in the sanctions against Russia and in that regard (I won't go into the actual details of spending the money) it was money that probably helped more in the current situation than the Zeitenwende-money ever will.

This is basically the same thing as with criticising Isreal. Not everyone who does is anti-semitic and not everyone who criticises US politics is anti-American. Many, many Germans protested against nukes on German soil back in the day which was part of a larger pacifist movement - many of the Greens (who are now very pro-weapons deliveries to Ukraine) were there, too.

This ties in with the above and is both naive and inaccurate. First of all, we tend to forget that Germany is West Germany + GDR. The latter was not protected by the USA but was their enemy. A detail but an important one. Moreover, during the Cold War, Germans didn't have that much of a choice: The USA were still an occupying power, not our friends. During that time many GIs were here and a lot of personal ties between Germany and USA were made. There were and are many personal friendships but that is a different thing. Of course most West Germans were grateful that US and NATO kept the Soviets at bay. But at the same time everyone was aware that even without global nuclear apocalypse, Germany was likely to end up as wasteland in case of the Cold War going hot. Better dead than red was something many here didn't subscribe to. Now, Vietman was a bit before my time. In my personal experience the real low point was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Being bashed for not joining a war that violated international law and was based on lies and fabricated evidence doesn't make good friends. Do I need to go on with Guantanamo, water-boarding and stuff like that, that most here found entirely disgusting (possibly on a My Lai level)?

That only 46% think that the US are a reliable ally is related to the above but in addition Germans do watch the news. Even before Trump there was much talk (from the Bush and the Obama administration) about "Old Europe" and especially under Obama there was a perceived shift towards Asia instead of Europe. Then there were all the NSA-shenanigans. Tapping into our Chancellor's mobile? Reliable allies, for certain. (Remember that Snowden is considered a hero, not a traitor by the majority of Germans for exactly this reason.) 

I don't think I have to discuss Trump here. Suffice to say that it reminded many who were naive about states being friends that states interact based on interests and that the US (like probably all other countries in the world, this is not about US-bashing) would be a reliable ally for just as long as it is in their interest to be.

Apologies if my words hurt feelings. This is a difficult topic. Let me say that many Germans like US culture - um, no, US lifestyle, the USA are still too young to have something that qualifies as culture - have US friends, love to travel there and all that. This personal level is just not the same as trusting the USA as a state or the US government.

Thanks for this.
After reading the first paragraph in the article I looked up the author and he's a US journalist with imo, a political agenda, using selective sources to project a framing he wants to put forward. So I stopped reading it
Not that I'm saying all is going as fast as possible in Germany, I don't really know to be honest but probably nor does he.

How to wisely spend 100 Billion Euro out of the blue is not an easy task. Last few days I did hear rather clear language from Scholz / Germany and I understand he is on his way for a private meeting with Biden as we speak. So things are happening at least.

[Artkin]

Hmm the hit Ukrainian T-84U is not on Oryx's Ukraine equipment page, but on the Russian page we are up to 14 T-90M. I wonder what's up with their delay? 

[billbindc]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This whole NATO 2% thing is a political game.  First off 2% GDP is not a signal that a country is contributing to collective defence.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country

As you can see from the top 10 we have a mixed bag if you unpack the numbers.  Some like UK and France have large effective militaries - for some very good reason.  Others like Greece are using military spending as a form of green welfare - massive pers costs do not translate directly to capability that can actually be contributed effectively.

The former US presidents angle was less “do your part” and more “buy American”.  The threat to pull out of NATO was empty and everyone knew it.  The US is the biggest arms producer and exporter on the planet (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/) - and NATO is a huge market ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/)

So pulling out of NATO would mean that STANAGs would no longer apply nor would US influence in that arms market, so ya…really dumb idea and no one really took it seriously in the business.

As to freeloading on collective defence, well we could build monuments to that over the last 30 years.  Not sure what the answer is, but 2% is a red herring.  I think Putin has done more to push for effective NATO spending in a year than US pressure has done in a decade, but we will see how long that lasts.

Don't sleep on the Former Guy's intent on NATO. He's been saying we should pull out for decades and his staff (Kelly, Bolton, Pompeo) said he was absolutely going to do it in a second term. Would that have made sense? Not at all...but sense was never the operative factor.

[The_Capt]

18 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You are so very clever, Socrates (or Pythagoras, if you prefer). Things are so much clearer now thanks to your incisive contribution.

I believe that he is referring to the pretty complex factors at play within force generation.  These are more than a simple target number, which is pretty much entirely quantitative; however, even that has to be taken into account with respect to both attrition and requirements within force employment models - more simply put “how many people are Ukraine losing, compared to how many they need, compared to how many they can produce?”  At least three dynamic “curves” there, and we have not even rolled in the curves for the Russian side of this as we have two systems in competition.  More broadly, there is also demographic and other elements of national power at play - your posts seem to suggest that all Ukraine has to do right now is fight, but that have a lot of other things going on to support that, or simply exists as a society, which all take human capacity - running of government, industry and trade etc. (and it ain’t all “the women folk” who are doing it).

And then there is the qualitative dimension.  On paper Russia is producing tens of thousands of invading troops, but what is that troop quality compared to the fewer Ukrainians (if it is indeed fewer)?  This just scratches the curves of troop specialists and critical enablers.  The UA is not just stamping out infantrymen they have to train up engineers, gunners, medics, logistics, Recce, intelligence, HQ staff of all shapes and a sizes - everyone of these have a “curve” of both production and how “well” they are prepared before they are operational.

And then there is equipment production curves versus losses.  These need to be linked to human force generation as we do need to arm them with something.

And then there is “how much is enough” training?  Is qualitative demand being met, that is a feedback loop from the field that constantly needs to be adjusted.  And then there is the qualitative curves effects on quantitative, and vice versa.  This in it self creates a curve over time in comparison of the RA.

And then there is force integration - how much can the existing system absorb effectively….a lotta curves.

Basically he is suggesting, somewhat sarcastically, that your analysis and assessment was a little shallow, and your deductions/conclusions may need a revisit.  The fact that he can do that in one sentence should suggest that the individual has a level of expertise on the subject, and perhaps is worth considering the point.

Edited March 4, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Don't sleep on the Former Guy's intent on NATO. He's been saying we should pull out for decades and his staff (Kelly, Bolton, Pompeo) said he was absolutely going to do it in a second term. Would that have made sense? Not at all...but sense was never the operative factor.

It was all the jobs lost in the US defence industry that would have blown up in faces. But you do make a good point - never underestimate stupidity when it can create good theatre. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Germany asks Switzerland to sell mothballed Leopard 2 tanks

Creative idea from Germany. Basically Switzerland sells Rheinmetall Leo 2s which will not be sent to Ukraine instead sent to Germany and other NATO/EU members. Which will let Germany and other NATO/EU members send more Leo 2s to Ukraine which Germany and other NATO/EU members already owned before the deal with Switzerland.

Lets have a Germany appreciation day today.

Edit: DesertFox beat me to posting this story!

Edited March 3, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

Good summary here today.  UKR looking like it's setting stage for Bakhmut withdrawal.  SU-35 shot down.  Report of RU moving troops from Kremmina area down to Vuledar, which totally makes sense in RU kind of way.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/3/2155994/-Ukraine-update-Situation-at-Bakhmut-critical-as-bridge-is-blown-and-some-troops-withdraw

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

The famed Magyar's drone recon unit received orders to leave Bakhmut.

The UKR withdrawal appears to be underway.

[UPDATE] There is no withdrawal, according to soldier from 93rd Brigade. Nonetheless, I believe they are evacuating all unnecessary units.

 

The day before Soledar fell, there was a video with a Ukrainian soldier saying "We are here in Soledar, everything is just fine, a bit of artillery back and forth, nothing big... we are relaxing and drinking nice tomato juice".

Next day, Russians were drinking that juice apparently.

I think it's very likely that Ukraine is currently in the process of leaving Bakhmut. Which would also be the sensible thing to do. In fact I am surprised they didn't leave earlier.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Grossman]

 

BBC is reporting UKR has ordered some residents out of Kupiansk. Probably to militarise the town. If UKR try an offensive in the south it would be essential for the eastern front to hold, including Vuledar

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64833750

[Lethaface]

Prigozhin looking to get some credit to his name again?

 

[sburke]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

Apologies if my words hurt feelings. This is a difficult topic. Let me say that many Germans like US culture - um, no, US lifestyle, the USA are still too young to have something that qualifies as culture  

hold it right there!  We do have the Kardashians... oh wait, yeah never mind.  

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 2/27/2023 at 4:19 PM, Chibot Mk IX said:

Dan ,

you are close to the truth. It is a posturing. However, the audience is neither Russia, US, EU nor any 3^rd world countries. It is targeting domestically, more specifically, to make great leader happy. Let him know that “Under your guidance we just create a proposal, and all the foreigners are listening to your wisdom.”

In Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC , after years of purge, the staff with professional training/experience have either been replaced or too timid to speak out the truth. They don’t do evaluation, questioning and planning anymore. All they know is to follow the “leader’s instructions” (aka , grasp the essence from leader’s word) .  I can talk more about this later,  that should also partially explain the root cause of “Wolf warrior diplomacy”. And very unfortunately, just like Ministry of Foreign Affairs, almost all Chinese government agencies are following the same path to abyss.

 

On 2/27/2023 at 4:26 PM, danfrodo said:

Very enlightening, thx for sharing 

We can assume that the so called “China’s peace plan for Ukraine” is a wishful thinking from some hot heads, it won’t produce any positive result (even to China). Just take a look at recent disastrous PRC diplomacy in middle east.

Back in Dec 2022, our great leader visited Saudi. In the hope this is the beginning of a new world order, no one dare to tell him that the Gulf states laid a trap for him. 

The joint statement between PRC and Saudi/ Gulf Cooperation Council made Iran outranges. The statement not only called on Iran to cooperate with the IAEA but also support UAE’s position to "reach a peaceful solution" with Iran on three disputed islands (that can be interpreted as support UAE’s claim on the three islands currently controlled by Iran)

https://amwaj.media/media-monitor/china-slammed-in-iran-over-unfriendly-posturing-in-riyadh

Iran was outrages and summoned Chinese ambassador, condemn the statement as an interference into the Iran’s internal affairs. And later Irani president Raisi demand compensation from Beijing during a meeting with a Chinese envoy.

And Raisi visited Beijing last month, he got what he wants, an assurance from China (if not, then at least a good posture) that China will pursue strategic partnership with Iran, a joint communique that railed against “efforts by certain governments to politicalize the work” of the IAEA (that is a 180-degree turn compare to the joint statement with GCC in Dec), also an investment agreement of $3.5 billion

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/18/how-will-raisis-beijing-visit-impact-iran-china-ties

Wondering when the Saudi and Israeli will send their envoy to Beijing, claim that the Irani visit hurt their feeling and demand the compensation in cash. 

 

Our great leader has hundreds of nicknames, a very popular one call him DSB. It comes from first letters in pinyin “Da Sha Bi”. It means “a big a**hole”. It also has a similar pronunciation that describes a fool “spend money in a foolish way but get nothing in return.” .By looking at the drama in middle east diplomacy, I guess we can understand why he got this nickname.

 

It might surprise people that Chinese diplomat and Xi’s Consultant don’t give a warning to him about the potential issue in the joint statement with GCC. Maybe they are so incompetent and thought Irani are Arabs so they should get along with each other (lol, of course NO). Or maybe they are aware of the risk but decided to keep silence. This is a kind of "Resistance".

The arrogant big boss will brush aside any concerns as “not willing to thinking unorthodox” and will punish anyone speak out the truth. The slang “Tang Ping / Lying flat” was born from internet back in 2021, but the essence of Tangping has been practiced dozens of years in part of China. In many of those self-sustained, isolated state own enterprises, everything is running under the will of the leader, his word is the law.  That is the sprite of 我不要你觉得，我要我觉得  .

Any talent person will quickly know his/her correct position in the organization, any dissident voice will be quickly silenced (although they will not be sacked or fired due to some special rule in Chinese state-owned corps.)

An active resistance is futility in this kind of environment, Tangpin, a resistance similar to Satyagraha (but it is much more passive than Satyagraha) is the best solution in this kind of situation.

Another type of passive resistance is called “acceleration”, note this word is copied from “Accelerationism” but has a totally different meaning in China.

https://chinadigitaltimes.net/space/%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89

Basically, if your arrogant boss is heading towards to a trap, why stop him? On the contrary, you should encourage him , ask him double speed. In a company or a government agency, the disaster could get your supervisor removed, that means you get your chance to promotion  . For a country that controlled by a bunch of idiots, well, just like a Nirvana, only a death can led to a new re-birth.    Of course there is too much optimism in “acceleration ideology”,  it is based on the assumption that you can be excluded from the consequence of the disaster. In reality this kind of action driven by the blinded optimism can be called as accomplice. For example, if a war broke out, hardly anyone can be excluded from the aftermath of that.