How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I am not sure where you got the impression that I thought the Wehrmacht were boy scouts.  Definitely not my intent.

I didn't say it was your intent, it was a popular myth as goal to accept the rearming of the West German army. Speidel Rommel's adjudant became inspector general of NATO. But don't let a difference of opinion impede our modest support of the Ukraine. To my fellow members from the US of this forum. The integrity of the Ukraine was guaranteed by George W.H Bush Senior. President and leader of the Republican Party. Now the bill has been presented the expected complaining has started by no one else than a Noisy Faction of the same Republican Party. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by chuckdyke

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

I have said it before, and I will say it again

This is the ONE thing I agreed on with our former President.  Our NATO partners needed to contribute more to their own defense and live up to the NATO agreements.  Relying on the US is no defense plan, sure we would live up to our agreement, but there must be some kind of local contribution to hold the line, or at least slow the advance until everyone was up to speed.

What I DID NOT agree with was his threat to leave NATO unless everyone snapped to attention and caved into his tantrum.
 

This whole NATO 2% thing is a political game.  First off 2% GDP is not a signal that a country is contributing to collective defence.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country

As you can see from the top 10 we have a mixed bag if you unpack the numbers.  Some like UK and France have large effective militaries - for some very good reason.  Others like Greece are using military spending as a form of green welfare - massive pers costs do not translate directly to capability that can actually be contributed effectively.

The former US presidents angle was less “do your part” and more “buy American”.  The threat to pull out of NATO was empty and everyone knew it.  The US is the biggest arms producer and exporter on the planet (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/) - and NATO is a huge market ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/)

So pulling out of NATO would mean that STANAGs would no longer apply nor would US influence in that arms market, so ya…really dumb idea and no one really took it seriously in the business.

As to freeloading on collective defence, well we could build monuments to that over the last 30 years.  Not sure what the answer is, but 2% is a red herring.  I think Putin has done more to push for effective NATO spending in a year than US pressure has done in a decade, but we will see how long that lasts.

[DesertFox]

Timothy Snyder recommends a good piece, I pass it on:

 

 

[Beleg85]

N-W of Bakhmut, good example how combat may looks like these days:

 

[Seminole]

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The group entered not to Briansk city, but to the border village Liubechane (also was information about Sushany village some SW) of Briansk oblast

Literally a stone's throw across the border.  The reference to Bryansk makes it seem like a raid, but this village is just a few hundred feet over the line

So weird.  

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

To the front line after 5 days of training, or Behind the scenes of an "elite" unit of the Armed Forces (Censor)

Hey @Haiduk, I just read a pretty critical opinion piece from someone who entered the AFU. Would you say this situation is typical for new AFU recruits right now?

If it is I think the EU countries need to increase the amount of AFU personnel, they are training on their military bases right now to improve the quality of the training.

DefMon3 RTed this piece but I didn't post it, not knowing the source.  But now it's here....

There's a Butusov video a few dozen pages back of some frontline grunts pointing out that the pretty medic has 'bigger b@llz' than the viewers back home. Clearly this is a real thing and the guys up front are noticing.

WTF, Ukrainian civil government?

1. Why hasn't every citizen (male and female!) between 16 and 38 been training 1-2 days a week in care and feeding of basic small arms, squad tactics and tank busting? Since like, last June.

2. Where is that standing establishment of 700 - 800k trained up personnel that was supposed to be waiting in the wings by last fall?  Sure, they may not be fully kitted out for some time, but they need to be ready for the call, whenever it comes.

3. The days of young men like our poor physics student here being free to let 'commoners' do the hard fighting are done. Piles of Oxfordians, Yalies and Toronto Blues died in the trenches or burned alive in aircraft.

That is the CORE social contract in Western civ. Ruling class and bougies fight up front, alongside the proles! Leave it to mercs or a 'military caste' then you soon get Lombards, Yuans and Mamluks ruling you.  And imperial boondoggles like Boer War/ Vietnam/ Stanbox.

This has been bugging me since last fall. I can't dig for the posts right now, but it looks like Ukraine is badly behind the curve on the National Mobilisation. 

Their amazing army, taking advantage of Russia's endless blunders, bought them time. But has the nation used that time properly to create the additional human material that they may well need to win?

Edited March 3, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I didn't say it was your intent, it was a popular myth as goal to accept the rearming of the West German army. Speidel Rommel's adjudant became inspector general of NATO.

Just to avoid some possible confusion here that Speidel was involved in whitewashing the Wehrmacht. He wasn´t:

It was Franz Halder (Hitlers Chief of OKH General Staff until 09/1942) who was basically responsible for re-writing the Wehrmacht Eastern Front history with the intent to wash himself and others white of all warcrimes. He was also the only german general who was both decorated by Hitler and the POTUS (1961, he was awarded the Meritorious Civilian Service Award for his service in the US Army Hisorical Division).

Hans Speidel on the other hand was actively involved in the resistance against Hitler and the 20th July bomb plot and tried to win over both Rommel, von Kluge and after his suicide his successor Model. He was arrested after the plot and imprisoned. He was the only major player in the 20 July Plot to survive the war.

You can look up both biographies online, more than enough information available on both former generals.

[kevinkin]

At a film festival near you:

"From Russia, with Child"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pregnant-russians-are-streaming-into-argentina-officials-are-suspicious/ar-AA1885Ah

Synopsis: Handsome young Russian couple go to Argentina to have baby and obtain valuable passport. But wife is a FSS agent with plans to actually deliver a baby and the west a rude awakening. Enter Bond ... the new James Bond.  And the west does not stand a chance ... or does it? 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ukraine is badly behind the curve on the National Mobilisation. 

Which curve?

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Hans Speidel on the other hand was actively involved in the resistance against Hitler and the 20th July bomb plot and tried to win over both Rommel,

To go for an armistice, as even everybody else knew,it was the sensible thing to do. As long as there was a chance of winning they supported the regime. Kind regards and happy gaming

[MikeyD]

I recall when the war started Ukraine was overwhelmed with volunteers but only mobilized as many as they could reasonably arm and train, with precedence given to those already possessing necessary skills. The others were told to wait till they were called up. I got the impression the government knew this was going to be a long war and didn't want to burn through their manpower reserves too quickly. The opposite tactic of Russia which did call up everyone and his brother in a panic then shoveled them unprepared and ill equipped into the jaws of Moloch.

[DesertFox]

35 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

To go for an armistice, as even everybody else knew,it was the sensible thing to do. As long as there was a chance of winning they supported the regime. Kind regards and happy gaming

Everyone knows about their motives, nothing new here. All researched to maximum level by multiple historians, published and open to see including the primary sources.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[sburke]

Russian National Guard servicemen trigger landmine in Bryansk Oblast while searching for Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (yahoo.com)

Russians seem to just really love mines

[chrisl]

16 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Attack (?) on A-50 on Machulishchi airfield. Maybe it will be more footage, but for now - the drone just approaches to A-50, lands on antenna, waits something and... flies back. Strange "attack" with "two explosions". Though at least it is possible to sneak inside guarded airfield perimeter %)

Today's A-50 take off from Machulishchi. Unknown for mission or to repair

 

So is that actual rust on the radome of the A-50 that the drone is landing on?  The picture is a little coarse, but it looks like there are perforations and peeling paint, too.  But if that's real rust, why is Russia using steel for sheet metal parts in an aircraft?  Particularly one that's not supposed to be operating where it might need any armor (which probably shouldn't be steel anyway)

[The_MonkeyKing]

most interesting ones:

 

Hits On Ukrainian Vehicles And Equipment (101)
Misses On Ukrainian Vehicles And Equipment (37)

[Bulletpoint]

31 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian National Guard servicemen trigger landmine in Bryansk Oblast while searching for Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (yahoo.com)

Russians seem to just really love mines

I hope and expect they will get the pleasure of cleaning up all the mines and UXOs they left in Ukraine as part of the war reparations.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Grigb]

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Most interesting, that Murz mentioned here special soft for artillery, which should be updated for BP-540 ammunitions. This shows, Russians also have some civil volunteer sector, which try to implement to army some digital things, which can increase speed of calculations and accuracy of firing data. I think these PDA with soft not so common, due to conservatism of generals and absense of initiative among field officers in improving own capabilities, but who wants, he will find. Probably Russian level of technologies of firing data calculation now as in Ukriane in early 2015, when first version of GISArta has appeared.

Indeed, I have already mentioned this. Hardcore RU Nat volunteer units have a volunteer support network to provide services that the official RU Mod cannot (including soft as well as encrypted comms equipment). That is one of the reasons why hardcore RU volunteer units are more capable than RU regulars.

Artbloknot is mostly used by volunteer forces, although it is being distributed informally to regular units as well. So, regulars will ultimately start using it too.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

JonS:  Which curve?

[Me, last time I brought this up in Dec]:

Per CNN (Nov) the US has trained about 20,000 specialists to date, and is gearing up to train about 2000 more each month. The UK has trained about 10k; other NATO countries, hundreds here and there. Poland keeps mum, obviously. But that ain't no half a million....

What's bothering me is that I am seeing almost nothing in this line. A few workshops that fix up damaged AFVs, distributed so as not to attract missile hits. Crowdsourcing....

Not seeing a War Production Board, no Lord Beaverbrook, no Bevan. I'm sure committees exist, but does their writ run beyond a few major cities?

...So in addition to the usual thread 'whataboutism' (i.e. Russia is coming unglued far worse and far faster, so why worry?), the consensus was:  Ukraine is doing "force generation" just great, while Russia caun't, and the enlarged force all be in place for spring (with or without Leopards).

The last official number quoted for AFU manpower including TDD as of July 2022 is 700,000.  Frontline strength is usually cited around half that (290 prewar + 60k reservists) + 100k TDD now 'regularised'

This 700k is still the standard figure cited (e.g. Gen. Hodges on CNN last week).

There was also a Ukraine MoD announcement in around October I can't find now about a targeted expansion of c.60,000 (frontline troop strength).  I'll keep digging.

Flash forward....

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy

In December [Zaluzhny] told The Economist there was no immediate need for massive mobilisation; his main problems were armour and munitions.

...“You can’t mobilise 6,000 if your training ranges can hold only 3,000.”

But force ratios, which once favoured Ukraine, have since tilted back towards Russia, which has mobilised at least 250,000 men since ordering partial mobilisation in September. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military leadership has been charged with building a reserve in advance of an expected counter-offensive.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11701#:~:text=By law%2C all physically-fit,are potentially subject to conscription.

Yuriy Butusov, a high-profile Ukrainian war correspondent and frequent critic of inefficient Ukrainian government, said in Jan. 31 Vlog comments that Kyiv’s manpower policies are sloppy and acknowledged that draft-dodging by a significant minority of draft-subject men is chronic. 

 

[WARNING to casual Googlers: there is a *lot* of disinformation (17 year old Ukrainian PWs, a million Uke draft dodgers in EU, etc.) being cranked out nonstop by the Russian prop machine. Case in point (Polodyaka is a quisling in RU pay): https://www.easternherald.com/2023/02/20/what-is-the-real-size-of-zelenskyys-army/]

[Yskonyn]

9 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

I have said it before, and I will say it again

This is the ONE thing I agreed on with our former President.  Our NATO partners needed to contribute more to their own defense and live up to the NATO agreements.  Relying on the US is no defense plan, sure we would live up to our agreement, but there must be some kind of local contribution to hold the line, or at least slow the advance until everyone was up to speed.

What I DID NOT agree with was his threat to leave NATO unless everyone snapped to attention and caved into his tantrum.
 

Well said and I fully agree we have been taking US protection for granted while making our own defense a ‘political toy’ as Lethaface rightly puts it. 

[poesel]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

But to paint the Wehrmacht as a boyscout like organization is a little too much.

I think nobody here did. This myth was dispelled for the German public in the mid 90s with this exhibition:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wehrmacht_exhibition

Better late than never. Caused quite a bit of hubbub here but managed to bring this into public attention.

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

I think nobody here did. This myth was dispelled for the German public in the mid 90s with this exhibition:

A pity it took the generation who had nothing to do with it to put the record straight to their everlasting credit. 

[JonS]

again, which curve?

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

again, which curve?

I think he is using an expression when you play 8-ball (aka pool). You curve the white ball around the black to hit one of your own balls.

Edited March 3, 2023 by chuckdyke