How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Then the object in right low corner flies too slow. SPG-9 shoot as variant.

Must admit I didn't spot the moving object first time I watched it. Was too busy turning off the sound.

Maybe it was just a regular RPG? In any case, it seems a waste of ammo.

[Grigb]

53 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

One guys opinion on the state of Putin's economy:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-deripaska-warns-russia-may-093939089.html

Deripaska:

Even with many of the world’s biggest economies arrayed against Russia, it still retains access to markets with a population of 4.5 billion and accounting for $30 trillion of global gross domestic product, he said.

“We thought we were a European country,” Deripaska said. “Now, for the next 25 years, we will think more about our Asian past.”

Well if Russia is looking east, good "riddins". And don't forget to take your conscripts with you.

While I'm here, the Russian economy is literally dying. Due to skyrocketing prices and their reserve fund, they were able to weather the initial storm until Mobilization. But, with mobilization and the implementation of price caps, the RU economy became a sick man with no hope of recovery. Most likely forever.

I'll provide some notes on the health of the Russian economy soon.

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

it is a guest opinion piece

Yeah but they have had a bunch of them. And when Brett Stephens wrote a good one I posted that two, in the last three days. But taking both sides amounts to taking Putins. My point is that they need to get behind Ukraine and stay there.

[Haiduk]

The Head of National Security Council Oleksiy Danylov about RVC raid: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/03/2/7391732/

"In Russian Federation a movement of Russian antifascists-militants is deploying. It's proverbially that UAV, APC you can buy free in any Moscow military shop.

So DRG (diversion-recon group) is Decolonization of Russian State" (in Russian "state" is "gosudarstvo" - so in this way Danilov played DRG acronim)

So, it's enough complicate about "false flag", nationalists, double agents and counter-play of GUR/FSB. It's propagandistic operation, sanctioned by UKR leaders. RVC some time ago fought near Bakhmut, looks like they were withdrawn to other purpose. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

S-300 missile hit residential building in Zaporizhzhia this night. This was 5-storey brick house, of 1960th, so called "Khrushchovka", so such huge destructions

4 killed, 7-11 wounded, 31 resqued, 5 still missed. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Anon052 said:

I was very sad to read on twitter, that a longer version of this clip excists where this brave soldier is killed later on. There was no link so I hope it is not true.

Very sad if he didn't make it. Either way he deserves Ukraine's highest decoration for valor.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

To the front line after 5 days of training, or Behind the scenes of an "elite" unit of the Armed Forces (Censor)

Hey @Haiduk, I just read a pretty critical opinion piece from someone who entered the AFU. Would you say this situation is typical for new AFU recruits right now?

If it is I think the EU countries need to increase the amount of AFU personnel, they are training on their military bases right now to improve the quality of the training.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Important remark. Despite we have full-scale war, Ukriane officially claimed only "martial law", but not "state of war". As if because of western governments pressure - this state gives to Ukraine legal opportunity to invade on territory of agressor. But... "you shouldn't escalate". So, you can and further see new strikes at Russian objects, new public raids and diversions, made by "Belarusian partisans" of "Russian Volunteers", but our officials will officially deny all this. You can recall official Kyiv didn't recognize no one strike. Official position - "they just smoked in not appropriate place"

Ukraine can always claim it was 'extraordinary spezial operation'

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/02/ukraine-russia-cluster-munitions-spring/

Washington Post makes the case for giving Ukraine cluster munitions clearly and forcefully. Hopefully this means it is moving up the list.

 

 

[akd]

It was only a matter of time:

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

To the front line after 5 days of training, or Behind the scenes of an "elite" unit of the Armed Forces (Censor)

Hey @Haiduk, I just read a pretty critical opinion piece from someone who entered the AFU. Would you say this situation is typical for new AFU recruits right now?

If it is I think the EU countries need to increase the amount of AFU personal they are training in their military bases right now to improve the quality of the training.

There was same situation - the man who was mobilized at the end of January was sent to Bakhmut in February and killed since four days on frontline. He was enlisted to TCC security company, but three weeks later they received an order - to go at war. TCC security company is mostly 45+ men, so part of personnel wrotre a reports they rejected to go to frontline for combat tasks due to health reasons. But this man agreed to go at war. They also had few training - just one time they shot with AK. When about this episode wrote Censor, MoD claimed there will be investigation why untrained personnel turned out on frontline.

But sitiuation on Donbas, not only around Bakhmut is too heavy and we are losing too many people. Of course, most of losses are wounded, but they need substitution. Since December in Ukraine was launched new wave of mass mobilization, and alas in this time it very similar to Russia. If you have a "luck" to became infantryman-rifleman of not so cool brigade like 93rd or other, you have enough chances to turned out in the trench since 7-10-14 of symbolic training

Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

I know the Times had something on this over the weekend, but never found anything outside the paywall until ISW:

NYT reported on March 1 that Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to make serious mistakes and advance tank columns into Ukrainian ambushes in the recent three-week Russian offensive near Vuhledar, which Ukrainian sources characterized as the largest tank battle of the war to date.[8] NYT reported that Russian forces lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) during the three-week offensive, forcing them to resort in the last week to frontal infantry attacks.[9] Ukrainian troops outlined their tactics to NYT, stating they lured Russian forces into kill zones before immobilizing Russian columns and channeling them into mine-laden road shoulders, before destroying them with artillery - including HIMARS, typically used against static, rear area targets.[10]  The Russian elements deployed to the Vuhledar area, primarily the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, are mainly staffed with poorly trained mobilized personnel who suffered massive losses in this area in October 2022 and again in February 2023. ISW previously reported on Russian losses near Vuhledar and assessed that they are emblematic of the Russian military‘s inability to learn from its failures.

We have been taking about the strength of the operational defensive and suckering the RA into kill zones. Does the tactical use of HIMARS successfully indicate that precision arty shells should be high on the grocery list?

[DesertFox]

From time to time some humour is necessary

 

 

[Jiggathebauce]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey, when you live in an country that acts like a supernatural evil force, why not brand a line of clothing to match?  I bring to you... Mordor Tactical combat clothing:

https://mordor-tac.com/

Steve

They really leaned into the whole Gopnik thing. I'm really doubtful adidas signed in for the three stripe garments

[chrisl]

56 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yeah but they have had a bunch of them. And when Brett Stephens wrote a good one I posted that two, in the last three days. But taking both sides amounts to taking Putins. My point is that they need to get behind Ukraine and stay there.

They've been more tankie than not through the whole thing.  The short period where they were reporting accurately and seeming to support Ukraine was anomalous.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, chrisl said:

They've been more tankie than not through the whole thing.  The short period where they were reporting accurately and seeming to support Ukraine was anomalous.

Hang on, much respected ChrisL.  NYT has had good coverage overall.  This is all op ed stuff.  I look at their UKR section every day.  It totally aint tankie.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Hang on, much respected ChrisL.  NYT has had good coverage overall.  This is all op ed stuff.  I look at their UKR section every day.  It totally aint tankie.

It goes back and forth, but it has been VERY tankie this week, with the exception of the Brett Stephens op-ed. The headlines in particular have been very and unnecessarily slanted.

[Audgisil]

One thing about this war that I find very frustrating is that we, the collective West, seem to constantly allow Russia to define much of the narrative. It's usually not too difficult to expose their lies, but we appear to always allow them to first make accusations, to which we then respond. Maybe it's just the impression that I have, but I would really like to see the West go much more over to the PR offensive. Let's put Hollywood and 5th Avenue to work on this.

The Russians are the biggest bunch of pearl clutching, hippocritical Karen's on the planet. I find it disgusting how they were all a bunch of "good little Athiests" during the Soviet era. Now, their same leaders, including Putin, have suddenly found God. Naturally, he's on their side. It's just so transparent. They also scream about how NATO is defacto an active participant in this war, which is complete BS. Our armies are not shooting at anyone. Yet, nobody points out that the Soviets not only sent everything but the kitchen sink to Korea in the 1950s, they also sent Russian pilots, who were actively engaged in combat with American forces.

We need to go after them mercilessly on the public relations front. I think it would also help to educate so many in the general public, all over the world, who suffer from selective memory loss and continue to want to give these scum bags the benefit of doubt and give deference to the point of view of those "poor Russians who are just acting out because they feel threatened."

Boy, I just needed to rant for a minute today.

[JonS]

I love purity wars. They're always so very productive.

[stuxneet]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey, when you live in an country that acts like a supernatural evil force, why not brand a line of clothing to match?  I bring to you... Mordor Tactical combat clothing:

https://mordor-tac.com/

Steve

 

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Nylon/cotton blends, the cheap stuff. It's crap. 

You can especially tell it's cheap crap because almost the entire product line is in stock and shippable to the US from Russian replica airsoft gear seller Grey-Shop, not good enough to be entirely bought out by volunteers and mobiks 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I am not sure why "still". You noticed that the incident in question occurred on the first day of the invasion, right? I would say "already" working, after the confusion of the initial RUS strikes

No I meant “still” as in AirPower appears to have been working like it was designed to on day 1.  Unknown is the ISR, could have been a lucky find, crowd sourced or western fed - knowing the west we would have linked AirPower into ISR first because those are the rules we play by.

And then at some point it all stopped working, for both sides.  It has been termed “mutual denial” or “denial parity” but when was the last time we saw a high profile airstrike like this?  There were others but then they dropped off.  “Why that happened?” is just one of the big questions of this war.

 

[JM Stuff]

13 minutes ago, Audgisil said:

One thing about this war that I find very frustrating is that we, the collective West, seem to constantly allow Russia to define much of the narrative. It's usually not too difficult to expose their lies, but we appear to always allow them to first make accusations, to which we then respond. Maybe it's just the impression that I have, but I would really like to see the West go much more over to the PR offensive. Let's put Hollywood and 5th Avenue to work on this.

The Russians are the biggest bunch of pearl clutching, hippocritical Karen's on the planet. I find it disgusting how they were all a bunch of "good little Athiests" during the Soviet era. Now, their same leaders, including Putin, have suddenly found God. Naturally, he's on their side. It's just so transparent. They also scream about how NATO is defacto an active participant in this war, which is complete BS. Our armies are not shooting at anyone. Yet, nobody points out that the Soviets not only sent everything but the kitchen sink to Korea in the 1950s, they also sent Russian pilots, who were actively engaged in combat with American forces.

We need to go after them mercilessly on the public relations front. I think it would also help to educate so many in the general public, all over the world, who suffer from selective memory loss and continue to want to give these scum bags the benefit of doubt and give deference to the point of view of those "poor Russians who are just acting out because they feel threatened."

Boy, I just needed to rant for a minute today.

"poor Russians who are just acting out because they feel threatened."

in "bold" two time to be anchor in the mind of some of us !

[chrisl]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It goes back and forth, but it has been VERY tankie this week, with the exception of the Brett Stephens op-ed. The headlines in particular have been very and unnecessarily slanted.

And much of the news coverage has been "woe is Ukraine, they don't stand a chance" rather than "why can't the alleged second most powerful army in the world take a small town like Bakhmut in months, and why are they trying anyway?"  

[sburke]

A case in Switzerland may unravel how Russian president Vladimir Putin hides his ‘enormous assets’ (yahoo.com)

"ruh roh, they found some of my money!" says Vlad

Quote

 

The Swiss government is bringing charges of criminal negligence against four Swiss-based executives at Gazprombank, as first reported by Tages-Anzeiger, a Swiss publication. Prosecutors accuse the bankers of mishandling money from Sergei Roldugin, a cellist who also serves as godfather to Putin’s daughter. The trial starts March 8.

The indictment accuses the bankers of not investigating whether Rodulgin was the actual owner of certain accounts, despite the cellist being a “politically exposed person.”

Swiss prosecutors also hope the case can shed light on Putin’s wealth. “It is notorious that Russian President Putin officially has an income of just over SFr100,000 [$106,000] and is not wealthy, but in fact has enormous assets managed by people close to him,” says the indictment, according to the Financial Times.

 

 

[Artkin]

16 minutes ago, stuxneet said:

 

You can especially tell it's cheap crap because almost the entire product line is in stock and shippable to the US from Russian replica airsoft gear seller Grey-Shop, not good enough to be entirely bought out by volunteers and mobiks 

It looks like the same exact website design template actually