How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

For all those who don’t know what the original U.S. term “drinking the koolaid”  means, it is in reference to followers of a Cult Leader obeying the Leader’s requests no matter the consequences. It was coined in the last century when a Cult Leader named Jim Jones convinced his followers in Jonestown to commit suicide by drinking poison in the sweet drink known as Koolaid or Kool-aid (I don’t remember the correct name). If I remember correctly, about 300 followers died.

Although there is a bit of historical irony to the expression since the beverage crystals used by the cult leadership in the Jonestown massacre were actually a competing product called Flavor Aid, not Kool-Aid.

[Vet 0369]

54 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

They are pro russian.  But isn't it interesting how money make loyalties "fluid".  Particularly for companies and businesses.

I sincerely hope that the Ukrainians are performing complete, in-depth inspections of each and every one to make sure there are no “surprises” on firing them.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

LOL, “Forty something’s” to me are just out of puberty! 

I'm 41 and I've got to say that at my age feeling young on what is technically a computer game forum feels positively weird.

[cesmonkey]

Short video looking at the new drone models the US is sending to Ukraine:

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

I'm 41 and I've got to say that at my age feeling young on what is technically a computer game forum feels positively weird.

You are also an airplane guy.  So even more weird.  

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I think I'd prefer "Ukraine Volunteer" not be cited here until there's ample proof he's legit.  We all remember the creative writing from Canadian Volunteer (or whatever his Twitter handle was) that we wrestled with for a while before being outed as a fraud.

Steve

Fair enough Steve, it's your living room.

...But having reread the thread in detail, I believe your (and others') impressions of UV to be mistaken. However remarkable, his story hangs together IMHO.

Also, unlike 'Canadian UV', there is no sign whatever here of profiteering, 'fundraising', disinformation, or personal publicity seeking, by him or his correspondent.

But, never shall hear Herald more.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It's stupid propaganda from our western point of view- if that would happen to anyone in NATO armies, we would instantly have massive outcry 'please get our boys out of there' and investigations of superiors; while I am more than certain muscovite propaganda will use it as example of "brave spirit of our soldiers". Here we probably witness a mix of dark Russian irony and pride of being proper muzhik, which is a consequence of being uncritically embedded in a system he doesn't even try to understand and (un)healthy paesant complacency. Red Army drove to Berlin on that mix, basically. Oh, and vodka ofc.

Broadly similar set of behaviours we discussed long ago when trying to figure out what drives so many Russian soldiers to their certain deaths in context of culture behind their odd military.

Yes, and this is exactly what is at play when we view videos of Russian (or Soviet derivative) soldiers dancing around pretending to engage in hand to hand combat, breaking bricks with their heads, and other moronic (by Western standards) displays of pointless (that's a fact ) macho nonsense.  It's all about playing tough to an audience that misunderstands what real tough is.

BTW, the West has plenty of this within certain segments of society where the ancient "peacock" macho stuff is basically unchanged.  It's just that in the West it is frowned upon by institutions.

Steve

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, and this is exactly what is at play when we view videos of Russian (or Soviet derivative) soldiers dancing around pretending to engage in hand to hand combat, breaking bricks with their heads, and other moronic (by Western standards) displays of pointless (that's a fact ) macho nonsense.  It's all about playing tough to an audience that misunderstands what real tough is.

BTW, the West has plenty of this within certain segments of society where the ancient "peacock" macho stuff is basically unchanged.  It's just that in the West it is frowned upon by institutions.

Steve

You want macho?  Oh we can do macho…

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

For all those who don’t know what the original U.S. term “drinking the koolaid”  means, it is in reference to followers of a Cult Leader obeying the Leader’s requests no matter the consequences. It was coined in the last century when a Cult Leader named Jim Jones convinced his followers in Jonestown to commit suicide by drinking poison in the sweet drink known as Koolaid or Kool-aid (I don’t remember the correct name). If I remember correctly, about 300 followers died.

909 total, 304 children, and one Congressman visiting to check on the situation (it is cited as one of the reasons that triggered the timing of the mass suicide).

  

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Although there is a bit of historical irony to the expression since the beverage crystals used by the cult leadership in the Jonestown massacre were actually a competing product called Flavor Aid, not Kool-Aid.

Now THAT I didn't know.  This might be one of the few times in history a company was thankful that their competitor's product got credit instead of their own.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Fair enough Steve, it's your living room.

There's plenty of sources to draw from, therefore questionable sources (and this is definitely questionable) should be kept out as much as possible.  It's why I'm glad Arestovych is pretty much avoided here now, and we know who that guy is

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...But having reread the thread in detail, I believe your (and others') impressions of UV to be mistaken. However remarkable, his story hangs together IMHO.

Sure, but I could have written that as well.  Nothing in there has not been discussed here in some fashion before.  A bit of creative writing skills and imagination... bingo, it all hangs together.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Also, unlike 'Canadian UV', there is no sign whatever here of profiteering, 'fundraising', disinformation, or personal publicity seeking, by him or his correspondent.

Some people lie just for the attention.  Plenty of examples of this throughout Human history.  Therefore, the absence of certain red flags doesn't mean much.  Kinda like a rapid test kit for COVID.  If it lights up, you know what you have.  If it doesn't light up, you're not necessarily in the clear.

If the guy has the time and the wherewithal to write as much as he does, then it shouldn't be so hard for him to establish credibility with some sort of proof.  The fact that he does not is a massive red flag.  The old excuse of "I don't have to prove myself to anybody" is another red flag.  Not sure he did this or not. just saying that's a common defense when someone is pretending to be something they are not.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Hey, when you live in an country that acts like a supernatural evil force, why not brand a line of clothing to match?  I bring to you... Mordor Tactical combat clothing:

https://mordor-tac.com/

Steve

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Interesting article in NYT today, if you can get past paywall.  About destroying RU armored columns around Vulehdar.  Title is kinda over the top, says 'tank battles' but it's really combined arms destroying RU armor.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html

Here we are on March 1.  Bakhmut looks bad, but as long as UKR gets its folks out w their gear, is it really all that bad?  Depends on the damage done to each side, I suppose, because Bakhmut itself is not exactly war changing terrain.

Meanwhile, RU getting clobbered around Vulehdar, and making no progress anywhere else outside Bakhmut.  Which all gets back to the question that keeps nagging at me:  how much can RU get ready in a month or two for UKR offensive?  And just how good is UKR at offensive actions?  

No one knows when ground will be dry enough for UKR to make its move.  And we don't know where.  We all think in the south but maybe they feint that and go for Starobilsk first.  Right now RU can defend just along roads but when ground dries they have to defend hundreds of KM of line.  That's gonna be quite a test for those RU troops & commanders.  

 

Some things to note from that article:

Drones & Terrain won the battle for UKR.

UKR was ready for the attacks and executed the plans well,. and without Drones probably could have done a lot of damage. But the early & constant surveillance was the winner.

RUS dronage was inadequate/incompetent or was countered by UKR. 

Terrain was pretty much perfect for a long distance slaughter of armor (eg the cited MBT up 3Km from the kill zone and fired indirectly into it, correct fire per drone feedback).

Drones identified the approaching columns, maintained visuals on the effects on target and also corrected UKR indirect tank fire into the columns - ie indirect not just against traditional geographic targets but into a mobile situation (albeit coralled and fenced in).

---

I would not be surprised at all if every UKR western tank from the brigades training up right now arrived into battle with their own stock of drones. Tanks that can indirect fire off their own surveillance, communicate to each other about those effects and correct each other from NLOS...yeow.

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Kinophile

[sburke]

hmm copyright violation?  Sauron is gonna be pissed

[Kinophile]

ref UV...I'm certainly interested and I've laid my pros for him/them. There are some odd details but not yet internal discrepancies.

Certainly I'd prefer an actual Ukrainian blog...

We'll see.

 

[chuckdyke]

Looks good.

 

[dan/california]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

hmm copyright violation?  Sauron is gonna be pissed

Tolkien would have known exactly who was playing Sauron in the current production.

[fireship4]

Quote

Kadyrov is very bad...

Surely Chechnya would become iffy if he kicked the bucket...

and

Dear The War Zone, thank you for a picture on which we can base our future tracer mods, compensating of course for the camera exposure, which we will glean from metadata, and that right soon:

Quote

Video available in the article: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/incredible-video-of-soldier-in-ukrainian-trench-totally-unfazed-by-withering-fire

Edited March 2, 2023 by fireship4

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/ukraine-aid-united-states-nato.html

 

Quote

The trouble is that Ukraine has only one surefire way of accomplishing this feat in the near term: direct NATO involvement in the war. Only the full, Desert Storm style of deployment of NATO and U.S. troops and weaponry could bring about a comprehensive Ukrainian victory in a short period of time. (Never mind that such a deployment would most likely shorten the odds of one of the grimmer prospects of the war: The more Russia loses, the more it is likely to resort to nuclear weapons.)

NYT is having an irritating attack of the tankie surrender monkey virus. I wonder who the FSB got too?

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, fireship4 said:

Surely Chechnya would become iffy if he kicked the bucket...

and

Dear The War Zone, thank you for a picture on which we can base our future tracer mods, compensating of course for the camera exposure, which we will glean from metadata, and that right soon:

Video available in the article: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/incredible-video-of-soldier-in-ukrainian-trench-totally-unfazed-by-withering-fire

 

Apart from the bravery of that soldier, this video also shows just how effective trenches are at protecting troops.

And why all sides in WW2 invested heavily in larger direct fire guns and flamethrowers to root out such defenders. Because the small calibre HE used by this APC clearly isn't effective.

[Peregrine]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

Apart from the bravery of that soldier, this video also shows just how effective trenches are at protecting troops.

At about 1:13 you can see what looks like hand movement at the edge of the covered part of the trench. It looks the same as Ukrainian Rambo with one guy moving around fighting and another a little tucked away.

[fireship4]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

the small calibre HE used by this APC clearly isn't effective

It's hard to pin down what's what in the video, it's not for sure that the clips of the BTR are from the same engagement.  There are a few explosions, a lot of tracer, and a lot of dust puffs around the trench.

If it was the same engagement, then the impacts are perhaps from the coax, as they are too frequent for the rate of fire the cannon is shown using (the article's second video shows it capable of a higher rate).  If they are 30mm then most of them are duds or haven't armed. 

The explosions could be 30mm, they looked a little big, but without more footage it's hard to say more than that guy better have ear protection, and has a set of balls requiring a gun-case when not at the front.

Edited March 2, 2023 by fireship4

[LongLeftFlank]

https://turcopolier.com/the-extraordinary-train-lifeline-behind-ukraines-rail-force-one-ttg/

Ukraine’s vast rail network, at nearly 15,000 miles, is the 12th largest in the world.

Ukrzaliznytsia is the sixth largest rail passenger transporter in the world, and seventh for freight.

First constructed in pre-Soviet times, its network is predominantly a broad gauge railway – different to the standard gauge, which most of Europe uses....over the past year they have rebuilt sections of previously defunct lines to neighboring countries.

In 2022, 28.9 million tons of grain were transported via the railways, most of which was exported. In total, just under 60 million tons of goods were exported from Ukraine.

The network also transported nearly 336,000 tons of humanitarian aid.

[Russian] smart missiles aren’t accurate enough to hit a moving train. They can’t even take out the Dnipro bridges. And the much vaunted Spetsnaz seem equally impotent.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

 

NYT is having an irritating attack of the tankie surrender monkey virus. I wonder who the FSB got too?

it is a guest opinion piece

[chuckdyke]

Such talent.

 

 

[Lethaface]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey, when you live in an country that acts like a supernatural evil force, why not brand a line of clothing to match?  I bring to you... Mordor Tactical combat clothing:

https://mordor-tac.com/

Steve

I expected scarier clothing lol. But at least the store owner knows who are the 'baddies'