How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

I do wish the US had taken Putin's bait for some kind of UN registered treaty on Ukrainian neutrality (akin to post-WW2 Austria).  That would have also provided the impetus for countries like Mexico to join the Russian embargo, and could have put others like China [edit: and India] on the hook.

I see you are very new to this thing, so let me give you a history lesson. No, not even THE history lesson, where we go through three centuries of genocide, although that context matters more than anything, but a recent one.

When Russia invaded Ukraine - Ukraine was bound by its own Constitution to stay neutral. In fact Ukraine wasn't just 'neutral' - it was absolutely anti-NATO. At the start of 2014 only 18% of Ukrainians wished to join NATO. Ukraine was also under Western sanctions, just a little bonus.

So then russians invade, start looting, raping, torturing, killing people and that goes on for whole 5 years before Ukraine finally decides to remove neutrality from Constitution. Hmmm, say - maybe getting killed by russians for 5 years had something to do with that "join the NATO" bright idea, but, nah, that's a preposterous thought.

How Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan are doing, not being in NATO, btw? I heard they have their territories occupied by russians, but that can't be, those countries are not in NATO.

Or maybe, just maybe russians not wanting anyone to be in purely defensive alliance is because they want to attack that country?

So come again? 

Edited February 11, 2023 by kraze

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The only two things I think we can be pretty sure of at this is Russia's plans to do something on a grand scale and Ukraine holding back it's reserves to wait until they know what those plans really are.

Steve

Is it possible that the Russians are playing for time by pretending to prepare a major offensive, thus forcing Ukraine to cease it's offensive actions and wait for what will come?

On the one hand that will give Ukraine the opportunity to integrate more Western material into their forces and reinforce it's reserves, but it will also give the Russians time to train the recently mobilized recruits, absorb new equipment and replace the losses in men and material, in the meantime launching spoiling attacks to keep the initiative?

Edited February 11, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

These preliminary attacks might just be theater to draw Ukraine's reserves

...while the main force readies itself for a massive brute force frontal assault intended to advance wherever and whenever Ukraine's forces get too thin to hold.

It's sounding a lot to me like they have in  fact accomplished the first item, using Wagner to force Ukraine to recommit its best formations to hold the lines.

...Now, about that 'main force' part. Is it yet to show itself, or are these 'shaping operations' actually the main effort?

If we believe the thesis of @The_Capt (and mainly I do, although I give him a hard time), then C4ISR already knows the punchline.

While all the recent will-they-won't-they? drama around Leopards and F16s and CIA blew the pipeline and Starlink and UKR gov falling apart and running out of hohols, is mainly trying to make Putin think 'it's now or never', so lean out over those skis tovarisch....

TL:DR: Maskirovka can cut both ways. All successful frauds rely on wish fulfilment delusion in the heart of the patsy.

Edited February 11, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Enjoying these preview shots of the new CM engine! 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Is it possible that the Russians are playing for time by pretending to prepare a major offensive, thus forcing Ukraine to cease it's offensive actions and wait for what will come?

On the one hand that will give Ukraine the opportunity to integrate more Western material into their forces and reinforce it's reserves, but it will also give the Russians time to train the recently mobilized recruits, absorb new equipment and replace the losses in men and material, in the meantime launching spoiling attacks to keep the initiative?

In a way, anything is possible because Russia is at a crossroads this year.  It knows, at the senior level anyway, that things need to get better in 2023 or 2024 is going to be pretty bleak at best.  They know what their stocks of weaponry and munitions are, they understand their manpower problems, they know Ukraine is getting all kinds of support Russia will struggle to counter, and they should also know how much they Suck at War™.

As I've said since this war started, war is not on Russia's side.  Status quo for them is not stability, which is what Putin desperately needs.  In fact, it's what he was trying to achieve with this war as things were not going well for Russia in Putin's world view.

Therefore, if Russia is attempting to play for time now, after nearly a year of doing exactly the opposite, I'd be very surprised.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

It's sounding a lot to me like they have in  fact accomplished the first item, using Wagner to force Ukraine to recommit its best formations to hold the lines.

It is obviously quite unclear to us how much of Ukraine's forces have been diverted to deal with Wagner because Ukraine keeps those cards close to its chest.  Significant forces being diverted, at the least, is probably a good guess.  But just like before the Kherson offensive there are formations we know exist which have not yet been committed to the fight, though we don't know what their readiness level is.

The other thing we don't know is to what degree the Wagner operation was part of a grand strategic plan that only now is kicking into high gear.  All along we were speculating that it was about personal ambition, competition between power factions, pure desperation, etc.  There was a lot of evidence of this at the time and I don't think we should throw it out the window now in favor of "ah, those Ruskies were really doing something super smart all along!  Silly us!".

It could be that both situations are in some part correct.  The Wagner operation might very well have been everything we thought it was at the time, but as the winter started settling in it was decided to use Bakhmut as a distraction for a bigger plan because they noted Ukraine's resources being diverted there.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...Now, about that 'main force' part. Is it yet to show itself, or are these 'shaping operations' actually the main effort?

If we believe the thesis of @The_Capt (and mainly I do, although I give him a hard time), then C4ISR already knows the punchline.

This   Russia has not had much luck in keeping things under wraps.  I suspect that Ukraine is pretty well informed about what is going on and is taking steps, as best it can, to prepare for whatever is coming.  Which may explain Ukraine's apparent lack of interest in counter attacking on any grand scale.  Ukraine has limited resources to counter a large scale Russian offensive, therefore it would likely be quite foolish (risky at best) to commit them in a significant way to an action that might soon become irrelevant.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

While all the recent will-they-won't-they? drama around Leopards and F16s and CIA blew the pipeline and Starlink and UKR gov falling apart and running out of hohols, is mainly trying to make Putin think 'it's now or never', so lean out over those skis tovarisch....

TL:DR: Maskirovka can cut both ways. All successful frauds rely on wish fulfilment delusion in the heart of the patsy.

For sure this is correct, but I don't think it is well advised to attribute run-of-the-mill events as some brilliant ploy to catch the other side off guard.  The tank debacle is likely what it seems to be, not something else.  However, it may have had an influence that it is "now or never" regardless.

Steve

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Also Oryx is heavily dependant on published visual sources, and katsaps always publish them proportionally less than UA for some reasons.

One of our soldier, maybe it was OSINT_UA in twitter, has written that by his subjective opinion Russian losses in vehciles should be +50...60 % from Orix and Ukrainian should be +40% from Orix.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

 

BMP-2 of one of the Ukrainian units defending Bakhmut, knocks out the Wagnerites from one of the houses on the outskirts of the city

[Haiduk]

Ukraine is forming new batch of mech.brigades, allegedly they will contain personnel, trained in western countries and probably western tanks and IFVs. 

21st, 33rd, 116th, 118th mech brigades, 47th artillery brigade. The latter as if already deployed in Ukraine in Kupiansk-Svatove direction

Also new air-assault and marines brigades are under forming now, but its numbers unknown yet

https://militaryland.net/news/ukraine-is-forming-new-brigades/

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

An assailant's motive can be unjustified, and yet still their motive.

You make the mistake of conflating the concepts.

No, you make the mistake of not seeing the real motives of Putin specifically and Russia generally.  Their desire is to control everything around them for their ends and their ends only.  That is what they do, and they've been doing it for centuries.  If there had been no NATO enlargement Russia's motivations would be unchanged, though the headcount of independent democratic countries in Europe would have.

And with that, you have run down my patience for rekindling the primary "whataboutism" Russian propaganda has spent so much time and money promoting.  As I said, we have debunked this horsecrap line of Russian funded disinformation more times than I care to remember earlier in the war.  This thread exists to discuss the reality of this war, not the fantasy Russia is pushing to provide justification for its genocidal agenda. 

Don't touch this topic again.  And for the others who have done the right thing and challenged it, I ask that you chalk up yet another victory over disinformation here so we can get back to more productive conversations.  Even talk about balloons and Leopards would be an improvement (though not by much!).

Steve

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

BMP-2 of one of the Ukrainian units defending Bakhmut, knocks out the Wagnerites from one of the houses on the outskirts of the city

Also good example of how 30 mm gun disperses shells even on short range. BMP shoots in more distant house, but some shells hit closer house

[Zeleban]

An instructor from one of the US military educational institutions based at Fort Benning, on an initiative basis, teaches cadets Ukrainian tactics of using drones, working with 3D printers for printing drop tails, programming, creating FPV kamikaze drones

[Zeleban]

World War II vibes

[Haiduk]

Yesterday path of two Russian missiles through Moldova and Romania, according to Zaluzhnyi statement. Romanian authorities categorically rejected this. Also reportedly one Russian missile again has flown very close to Polish-Ukrainian border.

In yesterday third phase of Russian attack, 20 Shakheds were shot down. At least four of them hit own targets. Two of them hit targets, which were already hit at the two first phases. 

Except naval suicide drone against bridge in Zatoka, Russians launched three missiles from "Onix" coastal launchers. Missiles hit some places in Odesa oblast. Two Russian Su-24M droppeed four bombs on Zmiinyi island.

"Shakhed", downed in Dnipropetrovsk oblast in first phase of attack

And this is "Shakhed", hit probably with S-300 in Kherson oblast in third phase of attack

 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

 

[Huba]

I just read a report that Russian keep attacking in Vuhledar, and that UA brought in reserves in the form of 72-nd Mech. Brigade.

In unrelated news, I just saw this curious contraption. Perhaps nothing new to people who actually got to load AFVs on trains, but very interesting for a layman:

And a bit of humour: 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Artillery of Presidental brigade (yes, the same "praetorians") trains to use captured Krasnopol guided ammunition. But for lasing a target they use not UAV, but FO vehicle of Obolon'-A complex (UKR upgrade of Soviet 1V12 complex - 1V14/15/16)

Brigade has fought recently near Bakhmut, but now it moved somewhere to the north

 

[Lethaface]

15 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

Oh noes! What if we offend the Russians? Interesting that you don't ask how the Poles felt about NATO expansion. How the Lithuanians, the Latvians, the Estonians, the Czechs, etc...  felt about it. The Russians are just pissy that NATO has stymied their attempt at restoring the Russian Empire. 

That's as good as a guess as any. 

The main point imo, is that now the discussion is passé. Ukraine was not in NATO but still Russia attacked. Saying that Russia wouldn't have attacked if Ukraine wouldn't be in NATO is factually wrong since about a year.

In all fairness I personally wasn't really jumping for Ukraine to get into NATO either after Maidan. Whatever one thinks of Maidan (imo it seems to have brought some very tangible improvements for Ukrainians living in Ukraine), it wasn't a usual change of power so to say. 

Anyway a quick move to get UKR into NATO just after the Russian marionet Yanukovich fled the country, that would be tempting the bear I'd say. But at least to nobody around at the time on this forum it should have come as a surprise Russia might start a war because of Crimea, the naval base, etc etc. They did. Over time and past 2014 I personally felt more and more that a move into NATO could help prevent a larger war erupting, but given the situation in Donbass and Crimea it was not really realistic? Some think tanks will definitely be studying these events to see if they can come up with turning points where we might have changed outcomes. But that will always be hindsight after the fact.

Anyway anyone who was thinking that Ukraine in NATO might cause a war, has now have their thinking updated because the war already erupted :). Maybe not the NATO/Russian hot war but NATO countries are involved in this one too. 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Lethaface

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

I do wish the US had taken Putin's bait for some kind of UN registered treaty on Ukrainian neutrality (akin to post-WW2 Austria). 

Oh, please. Russia violated the very agreement they signed to guarantee Ukraine's security. You think that Putin seriously meant that?  You used the correct word - "bait"

Dave

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

He provides his justifications, and they echo comments made here about 'Russian pride'.

More importantly, these observations about the reaction NATO expansion would trigger are consistent, broadly held and decades old.  Even CFR was making that part of the case right up to the most recent expansion of hostilities.  They haven't even taken those opinions offline.

You can't just hand wave it away like it never mattered.  That's just wrong.  Mistaken.  Part of how we got where we are now.

 

What does the loss of Sevastopol do to Russian strategic options?

Nothing at all?  I don't think you're being realistic.

I doubt they share that view.  And their view has to be a consideration, unless you're completely callous to the consequences.

Dear god what are you talking about?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian–Ukrainian_Friendship_Treaty

Before this all kicked off in 2014 Russia was in no danger at all of losing that base.

[Bulletpoint]

15 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

-And foremost- we are not mature enough geostrategically and need constant pushing by "older brother" from behind the Great Water. And this is really - as a European (gosh, how it sounds...)- genuinly embarassing fact.

The reason the EU is not mature enough geopolitically is not only that we have no common national identity, as you said, but also that we simply have no interest in becoming a superpower.

Because that sounds an awful lot like our recent colonial past.

And the USA has no interest in having the EU develop into a competitor, either.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://corporalfrisk.com/2023/02/11/leopard-1a5-see-first-shoot-first-and-then-what/

The Leo1A5 article we have been waiting for! Some top picking here:

"Another key aspect here is that when discussing tank guns, ammunition is often forgotten. There are huge differences between the capabilities of individual tank rounds also when fired from the same gun."

"For the Leopard 1 in particular, the best widely used round for the Leopard 1A5 is the DM63, a German license-produced version of the Israeli M426. You might/probably/perhaps/will bag a T-72B with it, but I wouldn’t want to be the one to try."

"Expert: 105mm DM63 is roughly the same capability as 120mm DM33, which was the main ammo for Leopard 2A4 at that time. So adequate to T-72/T-80's. Let's face it, Kontakt-5 ERA effect on APFSDS-T is controversial."

"Of course, the Israeli connection might be an issue. Or then not. There are unconfirmed (and I stress that word) reports the Slovenian delivery of the M-55S included the DM63 (it seems likely Israel had to sign off on the M-55S in either case considering Elbit’s role in the upgrade, giving some credibility to the rumors)."

"If you could get the Israelis onboard, you might also be able to low-key buy an even nicer piece of kit – Elbit’s M428 Sword. In either case, the M-55S has brought the L7 to the Ukrainian battlefield already, meaning that at least on a smaller scale someone has been studying the options for supplying the gun with ammunition."

"Ukraine has had to settle for Cold War-relics as ammunition due to lack of modern rounds. As such, a modern 105 mm round you have has better performance than a modern 125 mm round you don’t."

"However, everything is not terrible with the Leopard 1. Key among the nice features are the sensors. The Leopard 1A5 is an upgrade to the baseline Leopard 1 based around the EMES-15 sights and fire control system developed for the Leopard 2 (the 1A5-version being designated the EMES-18) which are top-notch compared to almost every tank rolling around in Ukraine at the moment. "

 "ex-German 1A5 and ex-Danish 1A5DK which are even further upgraded (described as “except for the gun, much better than the [Leopard 2]A4“)."

"In modern tank combat, seeing the enemy first and hitting with the first round are a big plus (you will still have to get through the enemy armor, but it’s a start), so the value of these features shouldn’t be underestimated."

"Sure, you probably would prefer to have the armor and 120 mm gun, but better mobility is at least something."

"most importantly, the 1A5 are available in nice numbers."

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

One of our soldier, maybe it was OSINT_UA in twitter, has written that by his subjective opinion Russian losses in vehciles should be +50...60 % from Orix and Ukrainian should be +40% from Orix.

One of analytics (I think Muzyka) assessed this lower several months ago, using some computing methods, as something like +25% for UA and 35-40% for kacaps. But it was just after initiall phase of the war, with front being still on the move in many places.

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I'm also talking about the losses in December, at that time they had not yet captured a single building in Soledar, the Ukrainians had already lost 3,500 people killed. If we take into account your statement, then after the capture of some corps, the losses of the Ukrainians increased even more and reached several brigades only killed. Do you seriously believe this?

Up to December- that means several months of heavy grinding. Yes, 10-12k (total, including wounded who partially recovered) on UA side for this whole period is believeable. As I state before with this guy who attacked everybody here, it is highly unlikely there is a parity in casualties by any means- there are too many reports and inteviews with common soldiers of yours who talked about cutting moskals down by literally dozens. Once assaulters made a touchdown on Soledar and Bakhmut sorroundings, nature of fighting could very much change for more even, but probably muscovite loosess in total still exceed yours by several times. Wagnerite alone storming the area could take as many as 30-40k total (including heavily wounded), and they are not the only force fighting there.

In other words, this battle may be more bloody than both sides like to admitt. Even reaching taio 1:3 or more (quite possible), Ukrainian looses are still significant. Btw. now central Bakhmut is hold again by 93rd and 4th Azov brigades- you don't call out elites of elites if you don't want to hold the city at any cost.

 

To add some pictures, here MG3 position after entire night of attacks (not sure if from Bakhmut, though; ammo below is from entire 24h hours):

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

I listened to an Austrian on You Tube and the Leopard maybe used for infantry support and freeing the more valuable Leo2s. He said assault gun mode (Sturmgeschütz) other worths infantry support first battling MBTs second.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Stepan Kungurov. Was killed on 3rd of Feb 2023. Unit and duty unknown, but in Russian social media pointed he served in Ulan-Ude (Buriatia Republic) and he was a graduee of artillery high military school. Though, he has motor-rifle signs on his shoulder-strips. Gvardia sign on his uniform - so likely he was from 5th guard tank brigade and probably could be a victim of HQ strike somewhere in Zaporizhzhia oblast.  

Major Mikhail Abramenko, chief of flight safety service, pilot of Ka-52. Unit still unknown, maybe 15th army aviation brigade, 6th AF/AD Army, Western military district. Experienced pilot - passed Chechnya, UN mission in Chad and Syria. Russians say their crew with navigator major Borovikov (already in the list) was more effective crew among others on this frontline sector. Was shot down and killed probably with UKR S-300 on 4th of Dec in Luhansk oblast. 

Major FSB Border Guard service (of reserve) Valeriy Makoivets, company (battalion, due to other source) commander of 1857th battalion or regiment of Kaluga oblast "mobiks" unit. Initially was instructor for mobiks, but later got a unit under command and was sent to Svatove area. Was killed on 17th of Jan during artillery shelling. 

Lt.colonel Andrey Barababanshchikov, chief of recon, deputy of chief of staff of recon (his rank is matches as minimum to brigade/division HQ level). Veteran of Chechnya and Syria. Unit unknown. Was killed on 29th of September.

Major Sergey Volodin, probably 7th air-assault division, Southern military district. Was killed on 4th of December

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Haiduk